khans2k5 wrote:AbeVigodaLive wrote:While I dig Hield and would welcome him on the Wolves for many of the reasons Lip outlined... it's a bit dangerous to draw favorable comparisons to a 2-time All NBA player just based on college stats, right?
I dunno. Maybe I'm just not knowledgeable enough about these college kids, but it's such a crapshoot most of the time. And we can't assume they'll all improve and progress on the same trajectory with each other... or players before them.
Regardless of work ethic. Some guys get there... others don't. Simple as that.
So do you just think we shouldn't compare guys to anyone then? Or bother with projections? You basically treat it like a total crapshoot so why bother thinking about what they might look like at the next level. Just pick a name out of a hat because we don't know how or if the guy we would have picked anyway would pan out or not and the hat guy has just as good a chance. Otherwise it's not a total crapshoot if you believe players are in different tiers in terms of whether they can make it or not and it makes sense to try to use as much data as possible including player comparisons at the same time in development to try to make the best pick.
I just find it interesting that we always choose the best-case scenario.
For example... Jason Kidd for Ricky Rubio... when the odds are overwhelmingly against that comparison ever coming true.
Hield could be a good NBA player. Personally, I think he becomes at least a rotation guy. But it's probably just as likely (if not more likely) that he becomes the next Trajan Langdon or Jimmer Fredette than the next Klay Thompson.
[Note: Overall, I thought Lip made some great points. His range, release, defense, et al. I just was cautioning against unrealistic expectations based primarily on college stats.]