Official 2016 Draft Thread

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

While we're on the topic of Hield, it is impressive that he has a good -- great -- track record as a volume three-point shooter and overall scorer in college, though he's obviously upped that quite a bit as a senior.

2013-14: 16.5 PPG / 44.5 FG% / 38.6 3P% / 2.7 3PM - 7.1 3PA / 75.0 FT% / 2.5 FTA / 53.4% of FGA are 3's

2014-15: 17.4 PPG / 41.2 FG% / 35.9 3P% / 2.7 3PM - 7.4 3PA / 82.3 FT% / 3.7 FTA / 52.1% of FGA are 3's

2015-16: 25.0 PPG / 49.8 FG% / 46.4 3P% / 3.9 3PM - 8.5 3PA / 89.5 FT% / 5.5 FTA / 52.5% of FGA are 3's

This is a player that really thrives on being able to shoot from deep as more than half of his shot attempts are from beyond the arc. Another player that comes to mind as a comparison for Hield was also a sniper from long range in college and that elite shooting prowess has translated quite well for him as he's had a pretty successful NBA career to this point.

2002-03: 15.0 PPG / 41.3 FG% / 39.9 3P% / 2.9 3PM - 7.2 3PA / 91.9 FT% / 3.4 FTA / 66.1 % of FGA are 3's

2003-04: 15.9 PPG / 42.3 FG% / 39.5 3P% / 2.8 3PM - 7.0 3PA / 95.3 FT% / 4.1 FTA / 63.6 % of FGA are 3's

2004-05: 23.4 PPG / 40.8 FG% / 40.3 3P% / 3.7 3PM - 9.1 3PA / 93.8 FT% / 6.3 FTA / 60.7 % of FGA are 3's

2005-06: 26.8 PPG / 47.0 FG% / 42.1 3P% / 3.9 3PM - 9.2 3PA / 86.3 FT% / 7.1 FTA / 51.4% of FGA are 3's

The above stats are J.J. Redick's from his Duke days. His game was even more oriented around the three-point shot than Hield's, which is hard to believe considering Hield let's it fly often, but Hield seems to have more dribble drive to his game than Redick did from what I can remember. That's probably a part of why his FG% is higher than Redick's was despite the difference in eras and competition level. Where Redick really outperforms Hield if you look at those stats is getting to the FT line, but one might hypothesize that Hield will still be solid in that aspect at the next level considering his ability to attack the rim.

It's not a perfect comparison and some say player comparisons are lazy, but I find them to be interesting forum topics and a look at how NBA players affect up-and-comers personal games. You'll hear almost every player talk about taking something from this player and something else from that player and working into their own game. I'd like to think that Hield's watched how Redick operates without the ball and has used that to improve his own game, but I have no legitimate proof of that. It's just an observation of my own.

[TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]]

One game shouldn't alter how you see a prospect. See: Andrew Wiggins vs Stanford (2014).

It hasn't been just one game. He's been on another level all season. Its just icing on the cake seeing him elevate his game in the tournament. I think he was always in the conversation as the 5th or 6th best guy since midseason, but after seeing him really step up today and seeing others like Brown flop, he'll definitely be in the conversation now for 3rd overall.

I agree, he has been in the discussion for top-five after his remarkable and historic college regular season, but you're willing to move him up to top-three after his game today, as you just said in the quoted post. I don't think that's how executives think and operate their big board. Same goes for Jaylen Brown. If you liked him a lot based on his season's work and what you think he might be at the next level, then watching him struggle severely against Hawaii and Utah shouldn't greatly impact your thoughts on his as a prospect. Judge a player based on his season, not by a game here or a game there. Hield could have shot 1-30 today from the field and I'd still say he's a consideration in the top five. Am I making my point clear or is there a different way I need to put this?

That's not a fair characterization of what I said. I said he's in the conversation for 3 with Bender. I think Bender might have more upside, but Hield is a more sure commodity. At the same time, Brown has disappointed me a bit (though I haven't given up on him and if we got Thibs I think our chances of developing him to be successful would go up) I used to think it was Brown or Bender for 3 with Hield at 5 and when I combine the lack of improvement by Brown over more than one game with what Hield has shown I made a small incremental value judgement. I always thought 3 thru 6 were close and I saw a more polished game out of Hield tonight (I like his energy on defense) and his ability to pass and rebound too.

[TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]]

Yeah most guys right out of college struggle on the defensive end no matter their skill set. It just takes time. Hield has a great skill set for a league that emphasizes three point shooting. Personally if we go with the G and both Hield and Murray are there I take Murray. He has the higher upside and by all accounts is a high character guy too. I think both bring the same element to the team. Would love to have either one on my team.

Dont' go to the dark side. I think Murray is a big defensive liability and he has all the characteristics of a bad defender--disinterest, slow lateral quickness and short. Last game I watched him get blown by many times. He's a slightly better version of Bazz and that's not worth a top 5 pick. Hield looks like a good defender compared to him.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Yeah most guys right out of college struggle on the defensive end no matter their skill set. It just takes time. Hield has a great skill set for a league that emphasizes three point shooting. Personally if we go with the G and both Hield and Murray are there I take Murray. He has the higher upside and by all accounts is a high character guy too. I think both bring the same element to the team. Would love to have either one on my team.

Dont' go to the dark side. I think Murray is a big defensive liability and he has all the characteristics of a bad defender--disinterest, slow lateral quickness and short. Last game I watched him get blown by many times. He's a slightly better version of Bazz and that's not worth a top 5 pick. Hield looks like a good defender compared to him.

1. Murray's 6' 4.25" with a 6' 6.5" wingspan. Hield's most recent measurements have him listed at 6' 4.5" with a 6" 8.5" wingspan. Though Hield has the slight edge physically, they're not all that different physically, if we're being honest.

2. Hield's had four years to round out his game, including his defense. Murray's a freshman and he does have a lot of work to do on that end, but he also has years to work on it. This is from September of 2014 in regards to Hield's defense after his sophomore season:

Draft Express' Jonathan Givony:

Defensively, Hield has the tools to be very effective on this end of the floor when he's fully dialed in, as he has good strength, a solid wingspan, nice lateral quickness and is not afraid to be physical and put a body on opponents. He's not very consistent with this part of his game at this stage, though, as his fundamentals are just average. He's prone to closing out wildly on the perimeter, falling asleep in his stance, and losing focus off the ball. Hield will come up with some very impressive possessions from time to time, but needs to do a better job of staying engaged at all times, something scouts will likely be watching closely as it's a major key to his evolution as a NBA prospect.

Defense starts with mentality. I think you'd need to sit down and interview Murray to get a real feel about how he approaches that end mentally, but I won't completely write him off as a defender. They're also comparable athletes. I have concerns about Murray defensively, but I think he can improve there. And if he doesn't, I still think he'll be better defensively than Muhammad, as you like to compare him to.

3. While we're on the topic of you comparing Murray to Muhammad, let's analyze why that makes little to no logical sense on offense.

- Murray's above average handle allows him to create more consistently and with more versatility. His dribble drive game and ability to operate out of the P&R is advanced for his age. Does this sound like Muhammad in the slightest? Muhammad's predominantly a post-scoring wing who also crashes the offensive glass for putbacks and gets to the free throw line. Two completely different offensive styles. One style is much easier to blend in the flow of the offense. That'd be Murray.

- Murray's a prolific three-point shooter while Muhammad in college was merely OKAY. Murray's made 113 threes this year and shoots 40.8% from there. Keep in mind he's yanking 7.7 threes a game. It's a huge part of his game. On the other end of this comparison, Muhammad made 40 threes as a freshman at UCLA and made 37.7% of his attempts. Bazz only took 3.3 threes per game. To really drive this point home, Murray makes 3.1 threes per game. And to further my point, Murray's made more threes (113) than Bazz even attempted (106). Three-point shooting is a huge reason why you're wrong in comparing the two.

- Murray's a much, MUCH better passer than Muhammad. Murray's AST% this year is 12.1 and that's without having much of a role as a primary ball-handler at Kentucky. Comparably, Muhammad's was 5.8. Murray's notched 79 assists (2.2 per game). Muhammad dished out a measly 27 (0.8 per game). Again, this is another huge reason why you're wrong in comparing the two.

I realize you don't think Murray and Muhammad are comparable prospects, but you do seem to think their styles of play are similar and equally damaging to a team. That's simply not true in any sense.

[mrhockey89]

Let me put it this way.. I see a lot more from Hield on the defensive end, not because he can hold college scorers down better than LaVine can NBA scorers, but because you can visually see Hield fight through screens that LaVine doesn't. I see better anticipation on that end, and I see more effort on that end.

On the note of Murray vs Hield.. I take Hield simply because he's the more polished product. Sure he's older, but unless this team wants to stay in rebuild mode forever, it wouldn't hurt taking a guy who's more NBA ready with similar abilities. Hield, in my opinion, is what one would hope Murray would become. There's no doubt Murray is ahead of where Hield was at their same point in their careers, but at the same time, there's no guarantee that Murray will get to the level that Hield is at right now.

Either way though, I take both above Shabazz (if that's a choice) and think both fit in ideally with what we have currently. Shabazz is mostly a SF, but I don't see him being a good long-term fit anyway. We need someone who can play a bit of defense on the wing, especially if we can grab a SG that can do damage offensively.

[TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]]

Cam, the reason I compare Murray to Bazz is that they are both good scorers who are big defensive liabilities. Murray has a D-Rating that is the worst of all the guys who are likely lottery picks. And you are right, Murray is a much better passer and that's why I call him a better version of Bazz. However, I don't believe you should dismiss Murray's lack of defense based on his age. He is rather short, has a short wingspan, poor lateral quickness and hasn't shown much effort to play defense. He can't improve his wingspan or lateral quickness with age and his lack of focus on that end is reminiscent of Bazz who in 3 NBA years has made no significant improvement on that end. And yes, both Murray and Bazz had bad college D-Ratings (which is probably the best stat out there to gauge how their defense measures up versus their peers).

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I agree with Hockey. It's hard for me to distinguish much between Murray and Hield as draft prospects. It feels to me that if Murray stayed in college, his ceiling would look a lot like.....Buddy Hield.

Perhaps Murray ends up being the better facilitator, but man, Hield not only hits those shots with volume and accuracy, he's doing it with guys draped all over him! He doesn't have Tyler Ulis or Tyus Jones running PG for him either. He does a lot of this stuff totally on his own.

[bleedspeed]

I a

Perhaps Murray ends up being the better facilitator, but man, Hield not only hits those shots with volume and accuracy, he's doing it with guys draped all over him! .

They said that about Adam Morrison too. The question is why can't he get better looks. It will be even harder at the next level. Can we be sure he is not the next Adam Morrison or Jimmy Fredette? I think his upside is JJ Reddick and he took a few years to make it work in the NBA. Certainly was not a finished product.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I a

Perhaps Murray ends up being the better facilitator, but man, Hield not only hits those shots with volume and accuracy, he's doing it with guys draped all over him! .

They said that about Adam Morrison too. The question is why can't he get better looks. It will be even harder at the next level. Can we be sure he is not the next Adam Morrison or Jimmy Fredette? I think his upside is JJ Reddick and he took a few years to make it work in the NBA. Certainly was not a finished product.

It will certainly be harder at the next level in a lot of ways, but I'm also not expecting him to average 25 PPG on 46% 3-pt shooting! In other ways, it might be easier too, in that he won't be the sole focus of opposing defenses.

Adam Morrison and Jimmer Fredette are cautionary tales for sure, although I do think Hield has a better NBA body and athleticism than either of those guys do. Morrison also came across as a total stoner space cadet to me. It seems to me - and I could be wrong about this - that he embraced the NBA lifestyle more than the NBA game.

There is never a guarantee with any draft pick. There are very rarely "can't miss" prospects.

[bleedspeed]

There is never a guarantee with any draft pick. There are very rarely "can't miss" prospects.

Agree. I wonder if someone went through and looked at lottery picks and how over the last 10 years how class-man worked out for busts. Freshmen vs Sophmores vs Juniors vs Seniors

My concern is Hield went from 61st to top ten as a senior. I think guys that come back that are 1st's the year prior are pretty much locks. I am thinking Blake Griffin, Greg Monroe, and Portis that come to mind. Here is Buddy's draft stock history:

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Buddy-Hield-58749/mock-draft-history/

Started the year at 45 and is all the way down to 9. That is an alarm as a senior to me.

Here is Stephen Curry's for reference. He was a 1st and came back.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Stephen-Curry-1170/mock-draft-history/