Official 2016 Draft Thread

[Monster]

The draft is about 2 weeks away and it can't come soon enough. What do we know now we didn't know a few weeks ago?

Chriss is rising

Bigs are rising in general

Valentine is dropping

With his season over Bender is coming over for workouts so we should be getting some news in the next week on him.

there is some interesting movement of the late first and 2nd round some guys rising a decent chunk and some guys falling.

Other than that I'm not sure we have much else that's too significant at least from my view but the next 2 weeks a lot can happen.

My updated 3 amigo guards who may be available at #5 rankings

Most underrated upside/worst physical traits-Jamal Murray

Most overrated upside/Best physical traits-Kris Dunn

Most underrated physical traits/possibly best complimentary player-Buddy Hield.

As for actual rankings:

Hield 1a
Murray 1b
Dunn 2

It's still really close I wouldn't be sad about getting any of them.

I am hoping Bender somehow falls but I am not getting my hopes up. Now that he will have a couple more days to workout that seems even less likely.

I'm also wondering if we end up doing something unexpected and picking someone nobody expected or trading down and getting a guy nobody was thinking and it turns out to be genius. I have high hopes I guess. Lol

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

The draft is about 2 weeks away and it can't come soon enough. What do we know now we didn't know a few weeks ago?

Chriss is rising

Bigs are rising in general

Valentine is dropping

With his season over Bender is coming over for workouts so we should be getting some news in the next week on him.

there is some interesting movement of the late first and 2nd round some guys rising a decent chunk and some guys falling.

Other than that I'm not sure we have much else that's too significant at least from my view but the next 2 weeks a lot can happen.

My updated 3 amigo guards who may be available at #5 rankings

Most underrated upside/worst physical traits-Jamal Murray

Most overrated upside/Best physical traits-Kris Dunn

Most underrated physical traits/possibly best complimentary player-Buddy Hield.

As for actual rankings:

Hield 1a
Murray 1b
Dunn 2

It's still really close I wouldn't be sad about getting any of them.

I am hoping Bender somehow falls but I am not getting my hopes up. Now that he will have a couple more days to workout that seems even less likely.

I'm also wondering if we end up doing something unexpected and picking someone nobody expected or trading down and getting a guy nobody was thinking and it turns out to be genius. I have high hopes I guess. Lol

Just curious why Dunn has the most overrated upside when he is a reliable jumper and a little bit better decision making away from being a complete PG. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but to me he is much closer to being an all-around player than either Murray or Hield and thus his upside is the highest in my opinion.

[Monster]

The draft is about 2 weeks away and it can't come soon enough. What do we know now we didn't know a few weeks ago?

Chriss is rising

Bigs are rising in general

Valentine is dropping

With his season over Bender is coming over for workouts so we should be getting some news in the next week on him.

there is some interesting movement of the late first and 2nd round some guys rising a decent chunk and some guys falling.

Other than that I'm not sure we have much else that's too significant at least from my view but the next 2 weeks a lot can happen.

My updated 3 amigo guards who may be available at #5 rankings

Most underrated upside/worst physical traits-Jamal Murray

Most overrated upside/Best physical traits-Kris Dunn

Most underrated physical traits/possibly best complimentary player-Buddy Hield.

As for actual rankings:

Hield 1a
Murray 1b
Dunn 2

It's still really close I wouldn't be sad about getting any of them.

I am hoping Bender somehow falls but I am not getting my hopes up. Now that he will have a couple more days to workout that seems even less likely.

I'm also wondering if we end up doing something unexpected and picking someone nobody expected or trading down and getting a guy nobody was thinking and it turns out to be genius. I have high hopes I guess. Lol

Just curious why Dunn has the most overrated upside when he is a reliable jumper and a little bit better decision making away from being a complete PG. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but to me he is much closer to being an all-around player than either Murray or Hield and thus his upside is the highest in my opinion.

Remember this is my take/opinion and a lot of it is gonna be subjective. Some people will disagree and that's cool. All 3 are close and I've stayed consistent on being a bit of a Dunn skeptic and I haven't found anything that has changed my mind and I have looked for reasons to change. On the other hand Buddy has grown on me partly because he measured out well for a SG and it feels like he could really compliment guys in several ways. Murray is a Freshman that put up numbers so its projection and potential of him getting better because of youth experience etc. Ok let's get to why I am not convinced Dunn is the next star PG.

1st problem I have with Dunn. He has consistently shot under 70% from the FT line. Will he get better? I would assume so but that's really weird. If we were talking about a big guy shooting that percentage it wouldn't be a problem but we might not put it as a strength especially the way some bigs are hitting FTs. Dunn is a guy you assume would handle the ball a lot so you want that guy to be able to hit FTs at a higher rate than around 70%. If that was his only problem maybe you could live with it somewhat similar to GS living with Iggy struggling shooting FTs at times.

I'm not convinced with his passing/true PG-ingness. That's a very subjective take but that's just how I feel about watching him both in a couple actual games and highlights.

His jumper looks a little shaky. It's been reasonably effective for him his last 2 years in college so that's good. I don't want to make it sound like it's broken because I'm not saying that. I still wonder about it though and his FT% adds some more caution. Like I said in another post a few days ago maybe he is a guy that shoots better with more movement than a set shot like at the FT line.

I think his handle needs to tighten up. He reminds me of some guys I play ball with that are really good players (so this isn't a big time shot at Dunn) and handle the ball well but they keep the ball out away from their body at times they don't always have compete control of the ball. There are a couple things you can do to stop them and that's coming from a fat out of shape guy around twice their age and with probably 25% (if I am lucky) of their talent. Lol For Dunn some of that could also be he is too quick and too athletic for his handle skills to keep up with. I'm NOT saying the guy sucks just that I think it's something he needs to improve more than just a little to become a REALLY good player.

He is 22 and I do need to give the guy a bit of a break since he really only played really like 2 seasons but I still wonder what his upside is because of that age and physical maturity he had last year in college.

To me I see a nice solid player that like like Q said is gonna do shit for your team. I just don't see a star upside guy. At #5 I'm hoping for a REALLY good player and while Dunn can certainly improve and I expect him to do so I am not convinced he gets to a REALLY good player level. On the other hand if we get a guy that's sort of Shaun Livingston type backup (not quite and versatile but probably will shoot the 3 a lot better) I'll take that and be plenty happy. It would be nice to get at least a starter level player (Livingston might actually be that) but a top flight rotation guy is far from the worst case scenario. A total miss or a guy that's easily replaceable would really suck. I see Dunn as a guy that's gonna do plenty enough to be worthwhile. That's not a knock on him it's part of the reason why I do like him at #5.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Just a question to the board, but why does being 19 or 22 matter with potential? One of the best PG's in the NBA Lillard came into the league at 22. To me age only affects your longevity in the league, but has no bearing on if you are going to be a player or not. I think it's naive to say a 19 has more potential than a 22 just based on age because they'll both always have the same NBA experience to improve. The benefit of drafting a 19 year old is you can potentially get 3 more NBA years out of them than a 22 year old can give all else being equal and you just hope those years are prime years where you get a high level of play, but quite often they just end up being lost years to development. And don't get me wrong, this is for both Dunn and Hield. I don't think Murray has a higher ceiling than them just because he's younger. I think your age really doesn't decide the quality of your ceiling but it decides how long you can stay near your ceiling. The argument of lets see where Murray is in 3 years compared to where Dunn and Hield are now doesn't make sense to me because they should be compared to each other as is 3 years from now. What if 3 years from now Murray is as good as Dunn is now, but Dunn is an all-star? You wouldn't keep saying let's wait until Murray gets to 25. You'd just say Dunn is the better player since entering the league and that's what matters at the end of the day. Dieng is better than most of the players in his draft, but he's 3-4 years older than most of them. We aren't saying lets wait 3-4 more years for them to catch up so why is that an argument for Murray?

[Brooklyn_Wolves [enjin:14608167]]

Murray is already as good as Dunn. C'mon, he doesn't need 3 years to get there.

[bleedspeed]

Khans, Age is huge. I think taking an 18/19 year old player that is producing in college is way more impressive then a 22 years old doing the same thing. I think that is why Murray has more value then Dunn or Hield. BTW - Both Dunn and Hield are a year older than Wiggins and LaVine. If player A puts up the same numbers as player B, but player B is 2 years older I take player A. I also look at the stat line of players like Dunn and Hield. The both sucked as freshman. Guys like Lillard, McCollum, and Curry were awesome, but awesome from the start. They just didn't play in power conferences or on great teams. I predict that Sabonis will turn out to be a better pro then over half the people drafted int he top 10. It wouldn't surprise me if he turns out to be better then Hield and Dunn.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

Khans I'm with you on the age discrimination here. Why not take the bird in hand vs. two in the bush with Hield or Dunn? We can all find stats to defend or muck up our arguments. I'm sure I could find guys who had great freshman years who are now working at Home Depot. The player of the year (not shooter of the year) who fits a need might fall in our lap. I would hate to gamble on another freshman. I think the more steady hand and experience of a senior would be a nice addition.

[bleedspeed]

I am just not excited about a player that has never been consider a top player in his age group or even ever being considered a top 10 prospect until he is 22 years old. Both Dunn and Hield fit that mold. I reallly don't see how Denzel Valentine is projected in the 20's though, but then you think about it and he was basically backing up Nik Stauskas. (Nik shot 44% from 3 in his Sophmore year) Nik is the same age as Hield, Dunn, and Valentine.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Nik-Stauskas-7103/stats/

That is why I am all about Murray, Bender, Poetl, and even Sabonis at 5 over Dunn and Hield. (I have flip flopped on this pretty bad over the last month)

[Monster]

Khans I'm with you on the age discrimination here. Why not take the bird in hand vs. two in the bush with Hield or Dunn? We can all find stats to defend or muck up our arguments. I'm sure I could find guys who had great freshman years who are now working at Home Depot. The player of the year (not shooter of the year) who fits a need might fall in our lap. I would hate to gamble on another freshman. I think the more steady hand and experience of a senior would be a nice addition.

Fantastic Freshman busts include:

Beasley
Mayo

Older Junior or senior busts:

Wes Johnson
Randy Foye

So yeah off the top of my head it's easy to come up with guys on either end.

The reality we sometimes forget is EVERYONE you pick in the draft has to improve a great deal to be a good player at the next level in the NBA. Obviously some guys are more polished and some guys are more of a project. It's al about where you project they end up. For me it's not just age with Dunn I wonder about a few aspect of his game that have to improve not just his age. I completely agree though with the point that a guy shouldn't be dismissed because he is 22 or a senior etc.

We are all making some sort of stance on projection of these guys. Looking back at the redirected draft thread from a couple years ago man a bunch of us including myself were all in a Stauskus and so far that's looking pretty bad it's a pretty good thing we ended up with Lavine and not him or...Payne. Lol

I would not be shocked if various teams have discussions like the ones we have on this board back and forth about these various prospects and they have a huge amount of info to help them make their judgements.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Khans, Age is huge. I think taking an 18/19 year old player that is producing in college is way more impressive then a 22 years old doing the same thing. I think that is why Murray has more value then Dunn or Hield. BTW - Both Dunn and Hield are a year older than Wiggins and LaVine. If player A puts up the same numbers as player B, but player B is 2 years older I take player A. I also look at the stat line of players like Dunn and Hield. The both sucked as freshman. Guys like Lillard, McCollum, and Curry were awesome, but awesome from the start. They just didn't play in power conferences or on great teams. I predict that Sabonis will turn out to be a better pro then over half the people drafted int he top 10. It wouldn't surprise me if he turns out to be better then Hield and Dunn.

You hit the nail on the head Bleed. What Khans fails to realize in his analogy is that Murray's production isn't three years behind the other guys, so there isn't much he needs to do to "catch up". He was nearly as good as Dunn and Hield as a freshman, despite being 3 years younger.

All of that being said, I think Murray has other issues that are holding him back in GM's eyes that probably have more to do with his physical profile.