Official 2016 Draft Thread

[Coolbreeze44]

I think the factors in college shooting translating at the NBA level are two-fold:

1) Having a highly repeatable stroke - one that you can groove for the NBA distance

2) The ability to concentrate at a quicker and higher level than your peers. This is what makes it so hard to gauge these prospects. How do you measure one's ability to concentrate when everything speeds up? Until you're put into real action, it's very difficult to scout or simulate this skill.

My best case in point and example for these factors is Matt Bonner.

I'd like to have you elaborate on your example of Matt Bonner.

I think he embodies both of the factors I identified. His stroke is exactly the same on every shot (like Bird), and he has definitely grooved it for the NBA distance. He could probably shoot a good percentage with his eyes closed. And whether he's alone or someone is flying at him, he shoots it the same way without rushing, maintaining his concentration.

[Monster]

I think the factors in college shooting translating at the NBA level are two-fold:

1) Having a highly repeatable stroke - one that you can groove for the NBA distance

2) The ability to concentrate at a quicker and higher level than your peers. This is what makes it so hard to gauge these prospects. How do you measure one's ability to concentrate when everything speeds up? Until you're put into real action, it's very difficult to scout or simulate this skill.

My best case in point and example for these factors is Matt Bonner.

I'd like to have you elaborate on your example of Matt Bonner.

I think he embodies both of the factors I identified. His stroke is exactly the same on every shot (like Bird), and he has definitely grooved it for the NBA distance. He could probably shoot a good percentage with his eyes closed. And whether he's alone or someone is flying at him, he shoots it the same way without rushing, maintaining his concentration.

Thanks.

Now are you sure you are talking about Matt Bonner or did you mean Matt Barnes? Lol

[Lipoli390]

There are now three teams left with a legitimate shot at winning the NBA championship: Cavs, Warriors and Thunder. Note that two of the three were built primarily through the draft.

The Warriors are built primarily around Curry, Thompson and Green -- all of them first round draft picks by the Warriors. They rounded out their team with two key trades -- trading 2 first round picks (2014 and 2017), Richard Jefferson, Biedrens and Rush for Iggy; trading Monta Ellis for Bogut and Stephen Jackson.

The Thunder are built primarily around Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka -- all first round picks by the Thunder. The Thunder also drafted another key piece Adams in the first round as well as Andre Roberson at #26 in the 2013 draft. Kanter was acquired in a trade for Reggie Jackson. Not sure that was a good trade for the Thunder, but Kanter has contributed.

Even Cleveland has acquired one of its core three through the draft. LeBron signed as a free agent and they got Love in a trade we all love here in MN.

Bottom line is this: You generally can't expect to build a championship team through trades. It's all about how well you draft. Then you can round out or add the last piece or two to your roster via trades or free agency. So it seems to me the Wolves are following the model that has proven to work best -- especially for a smaller or mid-market team. The caution is to avoid pulling the trigger too fast or too eagerly on any trades at this juncture.

[JasonIsDaMan [enjin:7981157]]

There are now three teams left with a legitimate shot at winning the NBA championship: Cavs, Warriors and Thunder. Note that two of the three were built primarily through the draft.

The Warriors are built primarily around Curry, Thompson and Green -- all of them first round draft picks by the Warriors. They rebounded out their team with two key trades -- trading 2 first round picks (2014 and 2017), Richard Jefferson, Biedrens and Rush for Iggy; trading Monta Ellis for Bogut and Stephen Jackson.

The Thunder are built primarily around Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka -- all first round picks by the Thunder. The Thunder also drafted another key piece Adams in the first round as well as Andre Roberson at #26 in the 2013 draft. Kanter was acquired in a trade for Reggie Jackson. Not sure that was a good trade for the Thunder, but Kanter has contributed.

Even Cleveland has acquired one of its core three through the draft. LeBron signed as a free agent and they got Love in a trade we all love here in MN.

Bottom line is this: You generally can't expect to build a championship team through trades. It's all about how well you draft. Then you can round out or add the last piece or two to your roster via trades or free agency. So it seems to me the Wolves are following the model that has proven to work best -- especially for a smaller or mid-market team. The caution is to avoid pulling the trigger too fast or too eagerly on any trades at this juncture.

I absolutely agree that Draymond Green was a GS draft pick. But I can't help but feel that the second-roundedness of his draft position points out the importance of scouting and not giving away 2nd rounders to rid the team of contracts or selling them as a way to raise (a rather small amount in relation to other streams) revenue, and maybe a little luck, because when GS was looking to shed salary his rookie season to get under the lux, ATL wanted Bazemore and not him. Does ATL beat CLE with Green? Maybe not, but they are better.

It's a mixed bag. Yes GS won a title, and SA won titled with TD/TP/MG/DR. But for every one of those, there's a MIA/LAL/BOS/DET that was formed thru a mixture of trades and picks.

[Lipoli390]

Good points, Jason. I actually forgot that Green was a 2nd round pick. All the more reason to value draft picks highly. Miami and LA are unique markets that don't have the same constraints as the small and mid-market cities like ours. Boston is also a storied franchise, but even they built significantly through the draft with Paul Pierce and Rondo (Boston acquired his rights in a draft-day swap). Otherwise, title contenders have historically relied primarily on the draft:

Bulls: Jordan, Pippen, Grant, TK
Jazz: Stockton, Malone
Spurs: Duncan, Parker, Manu, Robinson, Leonard. Then there was this season's FA acquisition: LA.
Thunder: Westbrook, Durant, Ibaka, Adams
Warriors: Curry, Thompson, Green, Barnes, Ezeli

It's hard to build through trades because you're obviously giving up assets to get assets. That means you have to outsmart opposing GMs or trade off long term for short term gain by trading future picks and young players for established vets for a short-term win strategy.

Fortunately, we don't have to worry about relying on trades to build a contender. We've already built our core through the draft and we'll have another chance to add to that core this draft with the #5 pick. I think the best path for this team to round out the roster is the free agent market. It might not be this year with the KG and Pek salaries on the books. But KG's salary will be gone after this season at the latest and Pek's salary has no more than 2 seasons left. The watch-word in my view is patience.

[JasonIsDaMan [enjin:7981157]]

Good points, Jason. I actually forgot that Green was a 2nd round pick. All the more reason to value draft picks highly. Miami and LA are unique markets that don't have the same constraints as the small and mid-market cities like ours. Boston is also a storied franchise, but even they built significantly through the draft with Paul Pierce and Rondo (Boston acquired his rights in a draft-day swap). Otherwise, title contenders have historically relied primarily on the draft:

Bulls: Jordan, Pippen, Grant, TK
Jazz: Stockton, Malone
Spurs: Duncan, Parker, Manu, Robinson, Leonard. Then there was this season's FA acquisition: LA.
Thunder: Westbrook, Durant, Ibaka, Adams
Warriors: Curry, Thompson, Green, Barnes, Ezeli

It's hard to build through trades because you're obviously giving up assets to get assets. That means you have to outsmart opposing GMs or trade off long term for short term gain by trading future picks and young players for established vets for a short-term win strategy.

Fortunately, we don't have to worry about relying on trades to build a contender. We've already built our core through the draft and we'll have another chance to add to that core this draft with the #5 pick. I think the best path for this team to round out the roster is the free agent market. It might not be this year with the KG and Pek salaries on the books. But KG's salary will be gone after this season at the latest and Pek's salary has no more than 2 seasons left. The watch-word in my view is patience.

Yes. They built entirely through the draft until they didn't.

LAL had a horrible year. MIA won 19 more games in a weak conference at twice the price. History means nothing if you aren't well run (just like the Bears and Canadians), but BOS is well run, and has gotten a little luck from poorly-run BKN.

In terms of FA's, if I believe there is an inherent reason that MIN can't get desirable FA's, then I have to follow only the NFL and NHL, because of there hard-cap philosophy, and M/SP actually being a "hot spot" for the NHL. Everybody seems to forget that Garnett's was getting $20m back with $20m was a HUGE contract and that really handcuffed MIN in terms of signing UFA's on the open market.

When I look at the history of the Wolves, I see a little lotto bad luck, but I mostly see day after week after month after year after decade after century after millenium of oh-so-awful player personnel moves. Hopefully that is in the past, but it's a little soon to say it absolutely is. But this team absolutely needs 19 more minutes a game of NBA-caliber point guard play, a reliable SF if they aren't going to play Bazz 36 mpg, and at least 24 mpg of NBA-caliber post play if Pek doesn't make it back. If that happens, then they'll have results. If not, the saga continues.

PS: You seem to have resources that other posters don't have. Are things really more dire with Pek than I think they are, or is he going to be ready for camp?

[Monster]

Sort of interesting. What do you guys think about this?

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/how-a-top-prospect-is-bucking-the-system-181542611.html

[Lipoli390]

Jason --

You're absolutely right about front office competence as the key to success (coupled with a little luck). The good news is that Flip proved to be highly competent in his all too brief tenure here as the Wolves PBO. As a result, we have the best young core in the League. Flip built this team primarily through the draft with Towns, LaVine, Gorgui, Shabazz and Wiggins, although Wiggins was technically acquired in a trade. And history does show that the draft is the best path for building the core of a championship contender, especially for a mid to small market team.

The only question now is whether Thibs and Layden can continue that same level of competence. If not, they can still blow it. But we are so well positioned that they'll have to be monumentally horrible as font office execs to screw this up.

[JasonIsDaMan [enjin:7981157]]

Sort of interesting. What do you guys think about this?

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/how-a-top-prospect-is-bucking-the-system-181542611.html

The question I would ask is if there is a real reason for this.

Agents generally get 4% of playing contracts. Not a ton, and the agent then can use the money to pay HIS infrastructure and go out and "cold call" to get him more work. If he doesn't think agents actually "pound the pavement", or he thinks he is going to be such a transcendent star it won't be necessary, then it may be a strong move.

The second question I would ask is if he has a real plan for that money. If he says "Yes, municipal bonds" (as an example), then OK. But if he is like "not really, I just feel like that money could be used to touch g-strings", well then that is poor reasoning.

[JasonIsDaMan [enjin:7981157]]

Jason --

You're absolutely right about front office competence as the key to success (coupled with a little luck). The good news is that Flip proved to be highly competent in his all too brief tenure here as the Wolves PBO. As a result, we have the best young core in the League. Flip built this team primarily through the draft with Towns, LaVine, Gorgui, Shabazz and Wiggins, although Wiggins was technically acquired in a trade. And history does show that the draft is the best path for building the core of a championship contender, especially for a mid to small market team.

The only question now is whether Thibs and Layden can continue that same level of competence. If not, they can still blow it. But we are so well positioned that they'll have to be monumentally horrible as font office execs to screw this up.

"Highly" is a strong word. There's the Payne deal. Getting Dieng to move down because the guy he was drafting no matter what would still be there was, within that very narrow scope, a good move. But after that move, he then proceeded to trade/sell picks in that draft. Lavine can still go either way and is in no way a done deal. Is Wiggins a Wolf if he signs with Lebron's agency and not Duffy's, and do they get a good haul from BOS if they had zero leverage? And not to sound too morbid, but he finally stands up to Duffy by drafting KAT instead of Okafor, and then is gone a couple of months later? It's almost like he knew something.

I understand that thinking Flip was good at this is easy when the comparison is Mchale/Kahn. But is he really "good"?