TeamRicky wrote:Monster, there are several guys who can shoot the 3 and defend well. Ingram (41%), Luwawu (39%), Valentine (44%), McCaw (39%), Baldwin (42%). I don't know what Bender's percentage is but I see a guy who will be a very good outside shoot er in the pros. Dunn shoots around 36% but is a very good defender. Marquese Chriss shoots 35% and is a good shot blocker. Dedric Lawson is a freshman shooting 35%, and has 1.2 steals and 1.7 blocks a game with a very good D-Rating. Caris Levert shot over 40% from threes and is considered a decent defender with a 7"1 wingspan, though he has had some injury concerns.
The other thing to keep in mind is that three point shooting is something that can be developed in the NBA with hard work. Kawhi is the one that comes to mind, but there are other players who over their careers added three point shooting to their game. Good defense is much harder to develop than outside shooting--in many cases you either have the physical tools, court awareness and mindset to play good defense or you don't.
Based on Draftexpress, Valentine is defensively even worse than Murray. He is described as extremely poor defender that needed to be hidden constantly at the college level in order to not emerge as a liability.
All others except Valentine, shot three pointers with much smaller volume that has to be considered when projecting prospects shooting ability in pros. Also Lunawu and McCaw shot three pointers closer to 37% than 39%.
monsterpile wrote:Team Ricky I get you don't like Murray but it feels like you aren't being fair in comparing him to other players.
Fun stat CJ made 217 3's his entire college career which did include an injury shortened senior season. Murray made 113 last year. Sure CJ is a better defender now but the dude is over 5 years older and in his 3rd NBA season after being drafted as a senior in college.
Foye was a poor FG% senior guard. That's not the same as Murray.
I think a better conparison if you wanted to make a case against Murray would be OJ Mayo. That guy ULTIMATELY didn't live up to his potential. At best he is a handy bench player. He had some good years but at this point that seems to have been a mirage. Make a case that Murray is gonna fail because of a guy like Mayo and that I could live with more. Just sayin.
Monster, I am comparing the college Murray to the college prospect McCollum. I liked McCollum as a college prospect and he was more of a two way player than Murray in college. McCollum scored pretty well in advanced defensive stats and his steal rate was very high.
I have always been a fan of complete players and I like that Thibs is too. Outside of his three point shooting and scoring, Murray doesn't have much in the way of elite skills. Andrew Morrison, Jimmer, Stauskas and Derrick Williams were all heralded for their three point shooting and scoring in college. But they were all bad defenders in college and never lived up to the hype. McBuckets and Devin Booker get hyped up for their three point shooting, but check their defensive ratings--they are near the bottom in the league. If we want a three point guy lets get a guy who can play defense too. Klay excelled in both three point shooting and had good defensive stats in college. Kawhi was a great defender in college who developed his three point shooting as a pro. I'd rather a guy that shoots around 35% threes in college and is a good defender, than a guy who shoots 40.8% on threes and has shown very little to suggest he'll be a good defender in the NBA.
Ricky, while I'm not sold yet on Murray either (although I'm warming to him a little), he was a much better defender in college than CJ McCollum. You really can't compare their defensive stats, because Murray faced top level NCAA competition while McCollum played in the very weak Patriot League. With a daughter at Colgate, I saw several Patriot League games (including a Lehigh game against McCollum in 2011) and I can tell you it was more like watching high school basketball than what I was accustomed to watching in college b-ball. Yes, CJ had a lot of steals, but he was picking the pocket of guys who went to college to get a good education...not to play basketball. NBAdraft.net understood this and gave McCollum a 6 defensive rating out of 10. They gave Murray an 8, although they did mention his tendency to gamble on defense.
LST, its true that level of competition is a factor but I have to disagree that Murray was a "much better defender in college than CJ McCollum." McCollum has better defensive stats, so your basing your judgment on your eye test. I have watched Murray play in all the Pan Am games for Canada plus several Kentucky games and I have to say I was underwhelmed with him, particularly on defense. When you factor in his lack of lateral quickness, his lack of size and short wingspan for the 2 guard spot and his seemingly lack of effort in playing defense, I don't project him well as a defender in the NBA.
I wonder if McCollum's improvement on defense (most consider him better on D than Lillard) is an argument for Murray, Ricky. I know McCollum was a terrible defender in college, but I'm admittedly not an expert on Murray's defense...my opinion is based mostly on what I read. But it sounds like they were both terrific shooters in college but there were concerns about their D at the next level. If McCollum can become an adequate NBA defender, there's no reason a guy like Murray who is bigger and more athletic than CJ can't do the same. So often these great college scorers don't make defense a priority in college because they don't have to...their NBA coaches won't be so forgiving though.
KiwiMatt wrote:No one outside of Ingram and Simmon really has me excited this draft. I'm all for trading down.
Would Philly do a 5th + Pek for 24th + Landry and Marshall trade? Philly has 3 first round picks.
That's a pretty bad trade for the Wolves just to basically save money. Maybe you don't like this draft after the top 2 guys but I would be afraid at #24 there wouldn't be anyone I was very impressed with comparing to even just reaching for a guy at #5.
TeamRicky wrote:Monster, there are several guys who can shoot the 3 and defend well. Ingram (41%), Luwawu (39%), Valentine (44%), McCaw (39%), Baldwin (42%). I don't know what Bender's percentage is but I see a guy who will be a very good outside shoot er in the pros. Dunn shoots around 36% but is a very good defender. Marquese Chriss shoots 35% and is a good shot blocker. Dedric Lawson is a freshman shooting 35%, and has 1.2 steals and 1.7 blocks a game with a very good D-Rating. Caris Levert shot over 40% from threes and is considered a decent defender with a 7"1 wingspan, though he has had some injury concerns.
The other thing to keep in mind is that three point shooting is something that can be developed in the NBA with hard work. Kawhi is the one that comes to mind, but there are other players who over their careers added three point shooting to their game. Good defense is much harder to develop than outside shooting--in many cases you either have the physical tools, court awareness and mindset to play good defense or you don't.
Based on Draftexpress, Valentine is defensively even worse than Murray. He is described as extremely poor defender that needed to be hidden constantly at the college level in order to not emerge as a liability.
All others except Valentine, shot three pointers with much smaller volume that has to be considered when projecting prospects shooting ability in pros. Also Lunawu and McCaw shot three pointers closer to 37% than 39%.
This is what is funny. Most of the reports say Valentine was a good defender in college. Lets look at the stats. Valentine had a very good D-Rating and had the best plus minus in all of college basketball. The knock on Valentine defensively is his perceived lack of athleticism, but his reach, high IQ, defensive mindset and effort is what makes him really good on defense. The guy has been called the highest IQ guy in basketball. Looking at the numbers and what he meant to his team, Valentine was a very good defender at the college level. I think he'll be quite fine at the NBA level because he will be a very good team defender and he can do it all, pass rebound score efficiently. A high IQ guy and high effort guy who is super competitive and can do it all and play very good team defense is what I want.
There are a lot of what ifs going on this board and so I'll throw out some of mine: What if Luwawu continues his amazing development and becomes as good as the Greek Freak? What if Valentine becomes as good as Green (Draymond or Danny)? What if Bender becomes as good as Gasol? What if Buddy turns into a top ten player? What if McCaw becomes a better passing version of Trevor Ariza?
TeamRicky wrote:There are a lot of what ifs going on this board and so I'll throw out some of mine: What if Luwawu continues his amazing development and becomes as good as the Greek Freak? What if Valentine becomes as good as Green (Draymond or Danny)? What if Bender becomes as good as Gasol? What if Buddy turns into a top ten player? What if McCaw becomes a better passing version of Trevor Ariza?
To your basic point I think there are going to be some worthwhile players in this draft. Pick the guy you like wherever you get you draft and make it count.
