Official 2016 Draft Thread

[Monster]

Here is a look at some wing players and their measurables. Source http://www.thebirdwrites.com/2016/3/11/11200106/2016-nba-draft-wing-prospects-measured-denzel-valentine-buddy-hield

Of my ten prospects to watch four are collegiate players who project to play on the wing and be available outside the top three picks according to most mock drafts. Since they are based on this side of the Atlantic we have recent measurements in the DraftExpress database. Let's see how those four measure up to an average NBA wing.

HEIGHT (IN SHOES) WINGSPAN STANDING REACH
Jamal Murray 6'4.25" 6'6.5" 8'1"
Buddy Hield 6'4.5" 6'8.5" N/A
Average NBA SG 6'5.6" 6'8.6" 8'5.5"
Denzel Valentine 6'6" 6'10" 8'7"
Average NBA SF 6'7.7" 6'10.9" 8'8.2"
Jaylen Brown 6'6.5" 7'0.5" 8'9"
Average SG and SF size thanks to this excellent post on Nylon Calculus

Above I ordered players by their standing reach, and not their height. Basketball players rarely block passes or secure rebounds with the top of their heads, and in such cases find themselves on a blooper reel more often than not. Standing reach is far more functional in comparing the effective height of these players on the floor.

Murray, who is more of a combo guard than a wing, is positively tiny. His wingspan and standing reach are more akin to a point guard in the NBA than a shooting guard. Combine a lack of length with his well-publicized limited athleticism and there are some serious red flags.

On the other end of the spectrum is Jaylen Brown, who is already sporting an NBA-ready body at age 19. Watch any game and his athleticism jumps off the screen; a lightening quick first step and ridiculous leaping ability. Brown misses this dunk but is in the tiny fraction of human beings who can even consider attempting such a feat.

I am not saying this analysis of standing reach is pointless or anything because I think its good to look at but some of the standing reach numbers for some guys just don't seem to add up. Also J Brown's length is underwhelming for a SF at least for this team. If this team gets a SF they have to be more like a PF than a big SG.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

If I can get Jae Crowder in a deal, I take it.

The Celtics seem to be a team full of the type of complementary role players you'd want filling out a contending roster. We have the (potential) stars, but none of the role players. They have the role players and none of the stars.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

We can sign Bazemore or Barton in free agency and they're similar, if not better, than Crowder. I wouldn't move a top-five pick for Crowder plus two firsts regardless of it being a less than stellar class. Just seems like we'd be settling really hard, no disrespect to him as a player. Also, he could easily be a product of Stevens' system and coaching. He's really only been good in his career just this year. He's also still a below league average 3P shooter, and this is his best percentage as a pro. Super sketchy trade target.

[Monster]

We can sign Bazemore or Barton in free agency and they're similar, if not better, than Crowder. I wouldn't move a top-five pick for Crowder plus two firsts regardless of it being a less than stellar class. Just seems like we'd be settling really hard, no disrespect to him as a player. Also, he could easily be a product of Stevens' system and coaching. He's really only been good in his career just this year. He's also still a below league average 3P shooter, and this is his best percentage as a pro. Super sketchy trade target.

I doubt the Celtic do that deal anyway unless we were picking top 3. I agree to a certain extent Crowder could be a one year wonder but he is the type of player the Wolves lack and you would also get 2 picks for some possibly good players. Like I've said a few times we need to find out our own Crowder type gem instead of paying for it via draft picks like we have done a couple times and that hasn't worked out.

[MikkeMan]

We can sign Bazemore or Barton in free agency and they're similar, if not better, than Crowder. I wouldn't move a top-five pick for Crowder plus two firsts regardless of it being a less than stellar class. Just seems like we'd be settling really hard, no disrespect to him as a player. Also, he could easily be a product of Stevens' system and coaching. He's really only been good in his career just this year. He's also still a below league average 3P shooter, and this is his best percentage as a pro. Super sketchy trade target.

Bazemore is not remotely close to Crowder defensively. Crowder is much stronger and won't be pushed in post. This year was first year when Bazemore has had clearly positive DRPM (+0.44), Crowder has much better DRPM (+1.83) and had similar numbers even in Dallas (2013-14). Bazemore weights around same than Wiggins and has similar problems against stronger small forwards as Wiggins has.

Even tough Bazemore has had statistically quite nice year in Atlanta, they have really struggled this year with him as a starter instead of DeMarre Carroll. Last year Atlanta starting five had one of the best net ratings in whole NBA (+8.6), this year essentially same group with Bazemore as replacement for Carroll has had net rating +0.1. Even offensively Bazemore won't be that good. He seems to be trying to do little too much and I think he has been at least partially reason for Korver's bad year. (This is just my opinion based on maybe five Atlanta games that I have watched this year.) Even tough Crowder is not as good outside shooter as Bazemore, he plays more under control and won't get many turnovers that makes him much more effective offensive player as well. Crowder has 5th best RPM among all small forwards with 3.67 and Bazemore is ranked 28th with negative RPM (-0.61). I admit that Bazemore would be probably better fit for bench than for his curent starter role in Atlanta.

Crowder has also one of the best value for money contracts that was signed last year. (5 years and 35 millions). I'm sure Bazemore will get more than that and he is not even close to same level player than Crowder.

[TRKO [enjin:12664595]]

We can sign Bazemore or Barton in free agency and they're similar, if not better, than Crowder. I wouldn't move a top-five pick for Crowder plus two firsts regardless of it being a less than stellar class. Just seems like we'd be settling really hard, no disrespect to him as a player. Also, he could easily be a product of Stevens' system and coaching. He's really only been good in his career just this year. He's also still a below league average 3P shooter, and this is his best percentage as a pro. Super sketchy trade target.

Bazemore is not remotely close to Crowder defensively. Crowder is much stronger and won't be pushed in post. This year was first year when Bazemore has had clearly positive DRPM (+0.44), Crowder has much better DRPM (+1.83) and had similar numbers even in Dallas (2013-14). Bazemore weights around same than Wiggins and has similar problems against stronger small forwards as Wiggins has.

Even tough Bazemore has had statistically quite nice year in Atlanta, they have really struggled this year with him as a starter instead of DeMarre Carroll. Last year Atlanta starting five had one of the best net ratings in whole NBA (+8.6), this year essentially same group with Bazemore as replacement for Carroll has had net rating +0.1. Even offensively Bazemore won't be that good. He seems to be trying to do little too much and I think he has been at least partially reason for Korver's bad year. (This is just my opinion based on maybe five Atlanta games that I have watched this year.) Even tough Crowder is not as good outside shooter as Bazemore, he plays more under control and won't get many turnovers that makes him much more effective offensive player as well. Crowder has 5th best RPM among all small forwards with 3.67 and Bazemore is ranked 28th with negative RPM (-0.61). I admit that Bazemore would be probably better fit for bench than for his curent starter role in Atlanta.

Crowder has also one of the best value for money contracts that was signed last year. (5 years and 35 millions). I'm sure Bazemore will get more than that and he is not even close to same level player than Crowder.

You hit one of my biggest attractions to Crowder, and that's his contract. He is locked down long term at a very reasonable price. To get Batum and Bazemore to come here to be bench players you are going to have to pay an exorbitant amount to get them. Crowder is exactly the type of role player we need.

[bleedspeed]

Will Thomas Bryant go pro?

http://www.indystar.com/story/sports/college/indiana/2016/03/21/indiana-hoosiers-stock-watch-ncaa-tournament-north-carolina/82073624/

[Monster]

We can sign Bazemore or Barton in free agency and they're similar, if not better, than Crowder. I wouldn't move a top-five pick for Crowder plus two firsts regardless of it being a less than stellar class. Just seems like we'd be settling really hard, no disrespect to him as a player. Also, he could easily be a product of Stevens' system and coaching. He's really only been good in his career just this year. He's also still a below league average 3P shooter, and this is his best percentage as a pro. Super sketchy trade target.

Bazemore is not remotely close to Crowder defensively. Crowder is much stronger and won't be pushed in post. This year was first year when Bazemore has had clearly positive DRPM (+0.44), Crowder has much better DRPM (+1.83) and had similar numbers even in Dallas (2013-14). Bazemore weights around same than Wiggins and has similar problems against stronger small forwards as Wiggins has.

Even tough Bazemore has had statistically quite nice year in Atlanta, they have really struggled this year with him as a starter instead of DeMarre Carroll. Last year Atlanta starting five had one of the best net ratings in whole NBA (+8.6), this year essentially same group with Bazemore as replacement for Carroll has had net rating +0.1. Even offensively Bazemore won't be that good. He seems to be trying to do little too much and I think he has been at least partially reason for Korver's bad year. (This is just my opinion based on maybe five Atlanta games that I have watched this year.) Even tough Crowder is not as good outside shooter as Bazemore, he plays more under control and won't get many turnovers that makes him much more effective offensive player as well. Crowder has 5th best RPM among all small forwards with 3.67 and Bazemore is ranked 28th with negative RPM (-0.61). I admit that Bazemore would be probably better fit for bench than for his curent starter role in Atlanta.

Crowder has also one of the best value for money contracts that was signed last year. (5 years and 35 millions). I'm sure Bazemore will get more than that and he is not even close to same level player than Crowder.

You hit one of my biggest attractions to Crowder, and that's his contract. He is locked down long term at a very reasonable price. To get Batum and Bazemore to come here to be bench players you are going to have to pay an exorbitant amount to get them. Crowder is exactly the type of role player we need.

Bazemore is a really good recruiter though let's do what Under Armor did and overpay him. :)

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/15047018/how-nike-lost-stephen-curry-armour

Long but really good article lots of interesting tidbits.

[bleedspeed]

Bazemore is a really good recruiter though let's do what Under Armor did and overpay him. :)

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/15047018/how-nike-lost-stephen-curry-armour

Long but really good article lots of interesting tidbits.

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[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't becoming more and more intrigued by Marquese Chriss. He's a terrific athlete first and foremost. Turns 19-years old in July. 6'9", 225 lbs, 7'0 wingspan, 8'9 standing reach. Didn't have a tremendous freshman season overall at Washington, but he did enough to put himself on the map, maybe as high as a top-10 pick.

The intrigue is built around his shot-blocking ability (1.6 BPG in 24.9 MPG or 2.6 BPG per 40) and his perimeter jumper (35% from college three on 1.8 3PA). We all know how rare of a combination those two skills are. It becomes even more rare when the player in question is an above average athlete and has the measurables to go along with it. Washington used him a lot in the P&R with Dejounte Murray and he looked fairly comfortable rolling or popping. Solid hands and as previously noted, he's a good athlete. Above average leaper.

The downside to Chriss is that he fouls a LOT. When I say a LOT, I mean that he's among the top of the list in fouls in the nation. Part of that is his desire to block shots (all shot blockers will need to be careful of fouling) and part of that is him not processing the play correctly (mental mistakes). He also could be a bit more skilled in the post. Not all that comfortable scoring on the block, though at times he's shown impressive footwork. And while it isn't a concern of mine, I'll had that he fractured his wrist and missed 3-4 weeks earlier in the college season. it appears that he healed just fine.

Lastly, he seems like a good kid. Soft-spoken, articulate speech. Has talked about being a good example on and off the court.

Here's a snippet of the interview.
(Do you have a fire inside that you play with?)
"I don't like to lose. I hate losing more than anything. So when somebody tries to challenge me and make me lose. That's what you're talking about at the summer league game?"

(That was kinda sick.)
"I love it though. I think I'm a big competitor. It doesn't matter what it is. If somebody wants to bring it out of me that's to their disadvantage. It's like when I get mad, I play so much better. It's not to a point that I'm out of control, I think I'm controlled and I know what I can do when I'm angry."

(I have a great nickname for you then?) "What?" (The Hulk.) "[Laughs]. If the shoe fits."

(How's the wrist?)
"It's fine. I did in (an offseason workout) and I'll be back in a few weeks. I'm not that worried about it."

(What's it like being part of this seven-freshman class?)
"It's great. We all can just grow together and kind of build up our chemistry. We already have good chemistry. We play well together. I just think it will be beneficial for us in the end because we all came up together."

http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-basketball/huskies-forward-marquese-chriss-has-fractured-wrist-out-at-least-2-3-weeks/

This is a longer post that I originally intended it to be, but he's fun to watch and his upside is arguably as good as anyone's in the draft. If I were to relate his position in this year's class to another, it'd be like LaVine in 2014. All the tools, good body and great athleticism to work with, needs some more basketball maturity, but the kid's 18. If he pans out, he could really be an impact player.