General Pre-Draft News and Musings

[Lipoli390]

Heading into the draft, the Rockets' situation looks like a near train wreck. Chris Paul can't stand Harden and wants out. The Rockets want to trade him but no team wants to take his max contract that extents through Paul's 37th birthday. Meanwhile, the Rockets have the highest payroll in the League and can't realistically sign 2nd tier free agents much less the top ones. I thought it was hilarious to read that the Rockets are expected to pursue Butler. How on earth are they going to do that. They'd have to do a sign-and-trade with the Sixers. And who would the Sixers get? The Rockets' current situation is what happens when you try to build primarily through trades and free agency. You can sometimes achieve success, but it's not sustainable.

Speaking of the Sixers, I anticipate them re-signing both Butler and Tobias Harris. That's the smart move for them. They gave up a lot for Harris and he's still relatively young. He also gives them much-needed perimeter shooting. Butler proved his worth in the playoffs. They almost advanced to the finals. More time together will, in my view, make them the favorites to represent the East in the NBA finals next season.

The AD acquisition was a great one for the Lakers. They're poised to be back as a championship contender this next season, but they still have a long way to go in building their roster around LeBron, AD and Kuzma. Moreover, AD has had a tendency to break down physically and miss quite a few games most of his career to date. So we'll see. I still think the Pelicans got the best of that deal, even though I see the deal as a win-win for both teams.

Speaking of the Pelicans, they're poised to build an elite championship contender for a sustained period. But before we proclaim David Griffin a genius, let's not forget his good fortune getting the 1st pick the year of Zion Williamson. Moreover, his predecessor handed him AD as a great asset to trade. Imagine how smart Rosas might look now if he had the same lottery luck as Griffin. Now let's see what happens with Ingram and Ball. Will they develop or will they ultimately be dealt in the next year or so?

It looks like Kyrie will sign with the Nets. I'm convinced the Nets knew that when they made their cap-clearing deal a couple weeks ago. The fact that they have cleared space for two veteran max free agents tells me they are confident they will land one of the other top free agents on the market. I suspect they're targeting Kawhi and Durant. Failing to get either one, I suspect they'd pursue Butler or Harris. It was just reported they're talking with Horford.

I still think Kawhi will sign with the Clippers. But I could see him staying in Toronto or signing with the Nets. No way he ends up with the Lakers.

As for the Wolves, Rosas said the Wolves had reached out to every team about deals. So obviously, the Wolves are being aggressive. I just hope the Wolves front office folks don't let their desire to be aggressive cloud their judgment. It's not a bad thing to keep the #11 and 43 picks. If the draft is deep as Rosas says it is, then it's up to the Wolves front office to draft guys who then develop into really good possible elite players. I'm convinced the Wolves are trying to find a way to get D. Russell. But that will be difficult and I hope Rosas shows good judgment and refrains from giving up too much. I'm not a big Russell fan. He'shad One good season and that was solely on the offensive side of the ball. I think he's a pothead and has issues that will make signing him a mistake, even though I recognize his talent.

[bleedspeed]

Is Chris Paul the new Sam Cassell? Could he be had in a salary dump and then lead a team to the Playoff for 2 of his remaining years on his contract? (Contract is so bad)

[Hicks123 [enjin:6700838]]

Heading into the draft, the Rockets' situation looks like a near train wreck. Chris Paul can't stand Harden and wants out. The Rockets want to trade him but no team wants to take his max contract that extents through Paul's 37th birthday. Meanwhile, the Rockets have the highest payroll in the League and can't realistically sign 2nd tier free agents much less the top ones. I thought it was hilarious to read that the Rockets are expected to pursue Butler. How on earth are they going to do that. They'd have to do a sign-and-trade with the Sixers. And who would the Sixers get? The Rockets' current situation is what happens when you try to build primarily through trades and free agency. You can sometimes achieve success, but it's not sustainable.The Rockets' current situation is what happens when you try to build primarily through trades and free agency. You can sometimes achieve success, but it's not sustainable.

I don't know Lip, let's look at all the teams that made a run in playoffs.

Toronto - All impact players brought in via trade/FA
GS - Mix of drafted vs FA players. And let's be real....the ONLY reason they ever had this ability to get Durant, etc was Curry's previous severely low contract. Had he been paid his worth (Max), no way they get/keep many of these guys. Thus, different trajectory.
Phili - Couple rookies and several HUGE FA signings

Only Portland and Denver are driven primarily by their own draft pick selections. Denver seems to be in good spot, but things change quick. And Portland can't sign anyone of consequence because Lillard & McCollum take up almost $60M in cap space. Not sure if it matters how talent is attained. The current issue with keeping teams together is that every above average player now gets a max contract. Guys like Middleton as an example. I love Middleton, but he is NOT a max player.....but market dictates he will get max. It's what will probably ultimately cripple Denver as well. Paying Gary Harris $20M and Murray a max deal will doom them. Both are good players, but again, they are not in my mind MAX guys. They are 3-4 options.

With current pattern of paying slightly above average players max deals, I don't know how you keep a solid team together for more than a couple seasons. This is why I think it was smart for Toronto to take a chance on Kawhi. That was their only realistic chance to win. Same probably goes for Lakers deal for AD.....regardless of what actually happens.

[Monster]

Houston could legitimately have a championship already. You wonder if their owner had been willing to spend more money the last few months if things would be a bit more happy around there.

If GS stays healthy the Kawhi acquisition may not seem like such a home run. There are a lot of ways of putting together a roster. I think a lot of options should be considered. Look at the Warriors. They traded away Ellis, did everything they could to sign Iggy and added Livingston as well as let their high draft pick leave and signed Durant who went on to win 2 Finals MVPs.

I get locked into thinking certain ways myself. GS made some of their own success and had some good fortune as well. They did also think outside the box at times to build a hell of a team. The Raptors took some risks and it paid off. It seems like Rosas and this front office is genuinely going to be looking at all options. It's a refreshing change.

[AbeVigodaLive]

It's easy to forget just how much "luck" is involved with championship basketball.

I'm happy with Rosas if he can build a foundation that has a CHANCE to compete at high levels... and hope luck takes it from there.

[Lipoli390]

Heading into the draft, the Rockets' situation looks like a near train wreck. Chris Paul can't stand Harden and wants out. The Rockets want to trade him but no team wants to take his max contract that extents through Paul's 37th birthday. Meanwhile, the Rockets have the highest payroll in the League and can't realistically sign 2nd tier free agents much less the top ones. I thought it was hilarious to read that the Rockets are expected to pursue Butler. How on earth are they going to do that. They'd have to do a sign-and-trade with the Sixers. And who would the Sixers get? The Rockets' current situation is what happens when you try to build primarily through trades and free agency. You can sometimes achieve success, but it's not sustainable.The Rockets' current situation is what happens when you try to build primarily through trades and free agency. You can sometimes achieve success, but it's not sustainable.

I don't know Lip, let's look at all the teams that made a run in playoffs.

Toronto - All impact players brought in via trade/FA
GS - Mix of drafted vs FA players. And let's be real....the ONLY reason they ever had this ability to get Durant, etc was Curry's previous severely low contract. Had he been paid his worth (Max), no way they get/keep many of these guys. Thus, different trajectory.
Phili - Couple rookies and several HUGE FA signings

Only Portland and Denver are driven primarily by their own draft pick selections. Denver seems to be in good spot, but things change quick. And Portland can't sign anyone of consequence because Lillard & McCollum take up almost $60M in cap space. Not sure if it matters how talent is attained. The current issue with keeping teams together is that every above average player now gets a max contract. Guys like Middleton as an example. I love Middleton, but he is NOT a max player.....but market dictates he will get max. It's what will probably ultimately cripple Denver as well. Paying Gary Harris $20M and Murray a max deal will doom them. Both are good players, but again, they are not in my mind MAX guys. They are 3-4 options.

With current pattern of paying slightly above average players max deals, I don't know how you keep a solid team together for more than a couple seasons. This is why I think it was smart for Toronto to take a chance on Kawhi. That was their only realistic chance to win. Same probably goes for Lakers deal for AD.....regardless of what actually happens.

The key is sustainability. And I said, "primarily."

The Warriors clearly built the core of their perennial contender through the draft with Curry, Thompson and Green. They then rounded out the team with the acquisition of Iggy back when he was still in his prime. Don't forget that they also drafted Harrison Barnes who made a difference for them as both a player and a trade asset. Durant was added well after the Warriors were a repeat championship contender and champion, including one season when they set the all-time record for best record. And even Durant signed there (at a discount) because of the core already present that the Warriors built through the draft.

Portland build their core through the draft with Lillard and McCollum. Denver built their core through the draft with Murray, Jokic and Harris. Will Barton was drafted by Portland. :) Milwaukee's core is built primarily around their draft pick, Giannis, and to a more limited extent, Brogdon. The other part of that core is Middleton, who they acquired when he was young and still developing. The Sixers built their core primarily through the draft with Simmons and Embiid. That core, with another draftee, Saric, and good role player acquisitions Redick and Covington won over 50 games two seasons ago.

In all these cases, these contenders were formed around a core built primarily through the draft. Unless you're a destination franchise like the Lakers it's very hard to build a championship core primarily through trades and free agency. There are exceptions like the Rockets of the past two seasons as well as the Miami Heat with LeBron, Bosh and Wade. But even when a championship contender can be built mainly through free agency and trades, it's less likely the team's success will be sustainable over time.

[Lipoli390]

Houston could legitimately have a championship already. You wonder if their owner had been willing to spend more money the last few months if things would be a bit more happy around there.

If GS stays healthy the Kawhi acquisition may not seem like such a home run. There are a lot of ways of putting together a roster. I think a lot of options should be considered. Look at the Warriors. They traded away Ellis, did everything they could to sign Iggy and added Livingston as well as let their high draft pick leave and signed Durant who went on to win 2 Finals MVPs.

I get locked into thinking certain ways myself. GS made some of their own success and had some good fortune as well. They did also think outside the box at times to build a hell of a team. The Raptors took some risks and it paid off. It seems like Rosas and this front office is genuinely going to be looking at all options. It's a refreshing change.

There is certainly more than one way to build a championship contender. My point is is two-fold. First, it's generally more effective to build your core PRIMARILY through the draft. And that's especially true for a franchise that isn't considered a destination franchise like the Lakers. Second, it's generally more sustainable to build your core through the draft. I think the draft is less important for filling out the rest of the team with complementary role players around the core. I'll add that the next best thing to using the draft to build most of your core is to acquire young up-and-comers via trades or free agency -- players like Middleton.

Note that even two of the three players in Toronto's core (Siakam and Lowry) this season were drafted by the Raptors. Obviously, trading for Kawhi was key in going from championship contender to champion. But that trade was possible because Toronto previously drafted DeRozan.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Houston could legitimately have a championship already. You wonder if their owner had been willing to spend more money the last few months if things would be a bit more happy around there.

If GS stays healthy the Kawhi acquisition may not seem like such a home run. There are a lot of ways of putting together a roster. I think a lot of options should be considered. Look at the Warriors. They traded away Ellis, did everything they could to sign Iggy and added Livingston as well as let their high draft pick leave and signed Durant who went on to win 2 Finals MVPs.

I get locked into thinking certain ways myself. GS made some of their own success and had some good fortune as well. They did also think outside the box at times to build a hell of a team. The Raptors took some risks and it paid off. It seems like Rosas and this front office is genuinely going to be looking at all options. It's a refreshing change.

There is certainly more than one way to build a championship contender. My point is is two-fold. First, it's generally more effective to build your core PRIMARILY through the draft. And that's especially true for a franchise that isn't considered a destination franchise like the Lakers. Second, it's generally more sustainable to build your core through the draft. I think the draft is less important for filling out the rest of the team with complementary role players around the core. I'll add that the next best thing to using the draft to build most of your core is to acquire young up-and-comers via trades or free agency -- players like Middleton.

Note that even two of the three players in Toronto's core (Siakam and Lowry) this season were drafted by the Raptors. Obviously, trading for Kawhi was key in going from championship contender to champion. But that trade was possible because Toronto previously drafted DeRozan.

Lowry was drafted by the Grizzlies and then played for the Rockets before he got to Toronto. He was another asset they traded for. Pascal was the only player in their whole rotation they actually drafted.

[Lipoli390]

Houston could legitimately have a championship already. You wonder if their owner had been willing to spend more money the last few months if things would be a bit more happy around there.

If GS stays healthy the Kawhi acquisition may not seem like such a home run. There are a lot of ways of putting together a roster. I think a lot of options should be considered. Look at the Warriors. They traded away Ellis, did everything they could to sign Iggy and added Livingston as well as let their high draft pick leave and signed Durant who went on to win 2 Finals MVPs.

I get locked into thinking certain ways myself. GS made some of their own success and had some good fortune as well. They did also think outside the box at times to build a hell of a team. The Raptors took some risks and it paid off. It seems like Rosas and this front office is genuinely going to be looking at all options. It's a refreshing change.

There is certainly more than one way to build a championship contender. My point is is two-fold. First, it's generally more effective to build your core PRIMARILY through the draft. And that's especially true for a franchise that isn't considered a destination franchise like the Lakers. Second, it's generally more sustainable to build your core through the draft. I think the draft is less important for filling out the rest of the team with complementary role players around the core. I'll add that the next best thing to using the draft to build most of your core is to acquire young up-and-comers via trades or free agency -- players like Middleton.

Note that even two of the three players in Toronto's core (Siakam and Lowry) this season were drafted by the Raptors. Obviously, trading for Kawhi was key in going from championship contender to champion. But that trade was possible because Toronto previously drafted DeRozan.

Lowry was drafted by the Grizzlies and then played for the Rockets before he got to Toronto. He was another asset they traded for. Pascal was the only player in their whole rotation they actually drafted.

Ok. But my point still holds as a general proposition.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Houston could legitimately have a championship already. You wonder if their owner had been willing to spend more money the last few months if things would be a bit more happy around there.

If GS stays healthy the Kawhi acquisition may not seem like such a home run. There are a lot of ways of putting together a roster. I think a lot of options should be considered. Look at the Warriors. They traded away Ellis, did everything they could to sign Iggy and added Livingston as well as let their high draft pick leave and signed Durant who went on to win 2 Finals MVPs.

I get locked into thinking certain ways myself. GS made some of their own success and had some good fortune as well. They did also think outside the box at times to build a hell of a team. The Raptors took some risks and it paid off. It seems like Rosas and this front office is genuinely going to be looking at all options. It's a refreshing change.

There is certainly more than one way to build a championship contender. My point is is two-fold. First, it's generally more effective to build your core PRIMARILY through the draft. And that's especially true for a franchise that isn't considered a destination franchise like the Lakers. Second, it's generally more sustainable to build your core through the draft. I think the draft is less important for filling out the rest of the team with complementary role players around the core. I'll add that the next best thing to using the draft to build most of your core is to acquire young up-and-comers via trades or free agency -- players like Middleton.

Note that even two of the three players in Toronto's core (Siakam and Lowry) this season were drafted by the Raptors. Obviously, trading for Kawhi was key in going from championship contender to champion. But that trade was possible because Toronto previously drafted DeRozan.

Lowry was drafted by the Grizzlies and then played for the Rockets before he got to Toronto. He was another asset they traded for. Pascal was the only player in their whole rotation they actually drafted.

Ok. But my point still holds as a general proposition.

And our point is there are multiple ways to build a contender. There isn't one right way to do it and considering we are a late lottery team right now trying to build through the draft doesn't have great odds of working out.