Lip, I'm just not as optimistic about this roster as you are. The more I watch the playoffs, the more I see the enormous gap between the Wolves and a team that can win 50 games. I love KAT and Ant, but Jaden is unproven at best and I've never seen one-way players DLO and Beasley as positive contributors. It will be fun to see how Jaden and Ant develop next year plus the arrival of Bolmaro, but if there isn't a truly significant deal made this summer, I would be thrilled with 45 wins. I think 38-40 would be more realistic though, and certainly a big improvement over the past two seasons.
By the way, even though I may have been the most enthusiastic person here about the possibility of picking up Simmons, I now see the deal as having far less than a 25% chance of happening. I was hoping the Philly fan base hate for Simmons in the aftermath of their elimination might force the Sixers to unload him for less than his value. But I have been reading the Philly fan forums regularly, and I've seen a change in their attitude toward Ben. They still want him gone, but they are looking for a far better haul than Russell and Beasley...and I think they're right. Any mention of the Wolves on their boards now almost always only mention KAT and Ant. This deal isn't likely to happen. So I'm no longer hopeful that Rosas is going to pull off a deal that will move the needle...we just aren't likely to make available the only assets we currently have on this roster.
Simmons trade scenarios-poll
Re: Simmons trade scenarios-poll
FNG wrote:Lip, I'm just not as optimistic about this roster as you are. The more I watch the playoffs, the more I see the enormous gap between the Wolves and a team that can win 50 games. I love KAT and Ant, but Jaden is unproven at best and I've never seen one-way players DLO and Beasley as positive contributors. It will be fun to see how Jaden and Ant develop next year plus the arrival of Bolmaro, but if there isn't a truly significant deal made this summer, I would be thrilled with 45 wins. I think 38-40 would be more realistic though, and certainly a big improvement over the past two seasons.
By the way, even though I may have been the most enthusiastic person here about the possibility of picking up Simmons, I now see the deal as having far less than a 25% chance of happening. I was hoping the Philly fan base hate for Simmons in the aftermath of their elimination might force the Sixers to unload him for less than his value. But I have been reading the Philly fan forums regularly, and I've seen a change in their attitude toward Ben. They still want him gone, but they are looking for a far better haul than Russell and Beasley...and I think they're right. Any mention of the Wolves on their boards now almost always only mention KAT and Ant. This deal isn't likely to happen. So I'm no longer hopeful that Rosas is going to pull off a deal that will move the needle...we just aren't likely to make available the only assets we currently have on this roster.
As you noted, I'm more optimistic than you about the Wolves roster. But I do believe the Wolves need to bring in a high-quality defensive big to start alongside KAT to clear the playoff hurdle. I say that even though I'm optimistic about he development of Vanderbilt.
I agree with your analysis that the odds of a Wolves deal for Simmons are pretty remote. Rosas drafted Culver at #6 two years ago. What's the residual impact of that pick? We have a young player with little if any trade value and almost no value thus far on the court. Rosas then made his big signature deal the following February when he traded for DLO. As Rosas said at the time, "we didn't want just any player, we wanted THIS player," pointing to Russell. Rosas made his big secondary deal at the same time when he traded for Beasley and Juancho. He doubled down on Juancho when he signed him at $7M per year for two guarantee years. What does the DLO deal mean? It means we have a max player without a lot of trade value. It also means we don't have the 6th and 36th picks in this year's draft. It also means we can't trade our 2022 first round pick because League rules prohibit trading back-to-back first round picks. What does the Beasley/Juancho deal mean? It means we have a terrific young, athletic shooter/rebounder at the SG position who has remaining upside and 6th man of year potential. And we have him on a relative bargain contract. But it also means we have a guy with the baggage of a jail sentence for a serious crime, which reduces his trade value. It also means we have a soft PF on an inflated contract who has no meaningful trade value and an injured shoulder that will probably cause him to miss the first 3 months of the season. It also means we have almost no room under the luxury tax threshold to maneuver in free agency.
What does all that mean? It means Rosas has to live or die with this current roster plus some tweaks, maybe even some significant tweaks. If we had the 6th and 36th pick in this year's draft along with no restrictions on dealing any of our future 1st round picks and if we have Portis at $5M instead of Juancho $7M, when I'd probably have a different take on the current situation.
I have some hope for the current roster with Ant and McDaniels added to the preexisting core of KAT, DLO and Beasley. And I also believe the Wolves have enough decent assets (Ricky, Layman, Naz Reid, future 2nd round picks and possible a future lottery-protected 1st, to add a needle-moving defensive big to the roster via trade. I'm as jaded as any Wolves fan, but I'm optimistic about the Wolves potential to make the playoffs next season. And I think they can make a substantial jump the following season. It will depend a lot on the development of Ant and McDaniels. But we've seen enough from both of those young guys to have reason to believe they can both be great. There are no short cuts or magic bullets for the vast majority of NBA teams. The Suns are where they are today because Booker, Ayton and Miles Bridges and Cam Johnson have ultimately panned out. The Hawks made their run because Collins, Young and other picks eventually panned out. If Rosas hit the mark with Ant and McDaniels, then this thing will ultimately work out for the Wolves. If not, then the next President of Basketball Operations will have to blow it up and start over. There is no savior on the other end of a realistic trade.