lipoli390 wrote:Great analysis, kek!
One thing you neglected to factor into your analysis of Juancho is his injury. If it really is a minimum 6-month recovery period, then that strengthens the case for cutting him since he would miss at least the first 2-3 months of the season or more with additional time needed to play himself back into shape. His $7M plus the roughly $1.4M we'd otherwise have under the luxury tax threshold after signing Bolmaro and Vanderbilt could be enough to sign a quality FA defensive big or quality backup PG if we end up dealing Ricky for a defensive big. To that end, part of the analysis has to include an assessment of who would be available on the FA market to fill our glaring need for a defensive big and how much room under the luxury tax threshold we'd need to sign him.
Q makes a good point about the additional room we'd get for free-agent signings if we cut Ricky. But I can see us having our cake and eating it two by cutting Juancho for more free-agent flexibility and trading Ricky and other assets (Culver, Okogie, and/or future pick). We have two top needs: (1) a defensive big; and (2) a really good 3&D guy, preferably a SF. We could use our roughly $8.5M to sign a free agent to fill one of these needs and use Ricky in a package to fill the other. Some off-the-cuff FA or trade targets in my head includ:
Myles Turner - defensive, rim-protecting big who is also mobile with a pretty good perimeter shot
R. Homes - defensive big
Daniel Theis - lower-priced defensive big
Patrick Beverly - terrific 3&D guard
I'm in between Juancho and Ricky for this theoretical exercise. You laid out the case for Juancho well. Kegeek also laid things out very well on the options.
One thing I think needs to be addressed if I was going to cut Rubio is If I was going to try and be good this year I am no way going to rely on the group left behind Russell at PG. Nowell Bolmaro and Edwards are options. Yes McLaughlin is a cheap possibly solid backup but with Russell likely missing a few games based his history I would want someone that's a vet that I know would be a good backup or solid starter. How much would that cost? Would that make signing Pierria Henry from Europe an option for what would probably be not a ton of money? How much would say TJ Mconnell cost? Ultimately you have to decide if the additional most you save by cutting Rubio and then signing a possible replacement is worth cutting him and therefore keeping Juancho. I think if you can sign a quality rotation replacement for Rubio for 5 million or less then I would be tempted to do let go of Rubio because that still leaves over 12 million left to sign other players.
I would absolutely cut someone because I think we could get players better than an injured Juancho (probably start off slow after coming back from injury) even though it's not a ton of money to play around with. As kegeek also mentioned the Wolves don't have any really terrible contracts...although Russell to some is kinda bad I haven't seen anyone suggest he would be the guy we should dump.