NBA Playoffs - Positive Take-Aways For Wolves

[Monster]

Monster, I'm the first to agree that Culver has had a horrible first two years in the NBA. That said, I would not be stunned if he became a serviceable NBA player, and I actually would not trade him straight up for Reddish. Reddish was a HS star that every college wanted, but he had a remarkably average year at Duke and has looked similarly lackluster in the pros. Both have struggled offensively, but the big difference between the two, both in college and in the NBA, has been on defense...Culver is a much better defender. Reddish has made some big shots in this series, but neither player was a good 3-point shooter on college and we shouldn't expect a turnaround in the pros. But despite his free throw ineptitude, Culver is niftier with the ball around the basket and a far better defender. Both were poor selections in the draft, but I prefer Culver. I think you're correct, monster, that Culver and Nowell will be battling for relevance in the rotation. I've preferred Nowell's much better ability to score so far in their respective careers, but I wouldn't be surprised if Culver takes a big leap this year and provides some value. Being allowed to play, and perhaps star, in summer league would be a nice start.

FWIW I've seen some praise for Reddish as a defender in his young career. Obviously I haven't watched enough to confirm it so I am still skeptical but it might be worth considering he isn't a massive negative on that end. I just read Nate McMillen said yesterday that end of the court is his game and praised him so yeah maybe Reddish can defend. If that's the case with his size and length he will have some value going forward.

Yeah, I've heard the Hawks' FM and McMillan say some positive things about Cam's defense, but the numbers don't seem to back that up. I'll admit I've hardly seen him at all in the pros, but I watched him a lot at Duke and thought his defense was dreadful.

What do those same stats say about Culver's D?

[FNG]

Monster, I'm the first to agree that Culver has had a horrible first two years in the NBA. That said, I would not be stunned if he became a serviceable NBA player, and I actually would not trade him straight up for Reddish. Reddish was a HS star that every college wanted, but he had a remarkably average year at Duke and has looked similarly lackluster in the pros. Both have struggled offensively, but the big difference between the two, both in college and in the NBA, has been on defense...Culver is a much better defender. Reddish has made some big shots in this series, but neither player was a good 3-point shooter on college and we shouldn't expect a turnaround in the pros. But despite his free throw ineptitude, Culver is niftier with the ball around the basket and a far better defender. Both were poor selections in the draft, but I prefer Culver. I think you're correct, monster, that Culver and Nowell will be battling for relevance in the rotation. I've preferred Nowell's much better ability to score so far in their respective careers, but I wouldn't be surprised if Culver takes a big leap this year and provides some value. Being allowed to play, and perhaps star, in summer league would be a nice start.

FWIW I've seen some praise for Reddish as a defender in his young career. Obviously I haven't watched enough to confirm it so I am still skeptical but it might be worth considering he isn't a massive negative on that end. I just read Nate McMillen said yesterday that end of the court is his game and praised him so yeah maybe Reddish can defend. If that's the case with his size and length he will have some value going forward.

Yeah, I've heard the Hawks' FM and McMillan say some positive things about Cam's defense, but the numbers don't seem to back that up. I'll admit I've hardly seen him at all in the pros, but I watched him a lot at Duke and thought his defense was dreadful.

What do those same stats say about Culver's D?

In the pros Culver's stats indicate an average defender, and Reddish far below average. In college, Culver's stats were elite, and Reddish's only average.

[Lipoli390]

Monster, I'm the first to agree that Culver has had a horrible first two years in the NBA. That said, I would not be stunned if he became a serviceable NBA player, and I actually would not trade him straight up for Reddish. Reddish was a HS star that every college wanted, but he had a remarkably average year at Duke and has looked similarly lackluster in the pros. Both have struggled offensively, but the big difference between the two, both in college and in the NBA, has been on defense...Culver is a much better defender. Reddish has made some big shots in this series, but neither player was a good 3-point shooter on college and we shouldn't expect a turnaround in the pros. But despite his free throw ineptitude, Culver is niftier with the ball around the basket and a far better defender. Both were poor selections in the draft, but I prefer Culver. I think you're correct, monster, that Culver and Nowell will be battling for relevance in the rotation. I've preferred Nowell's much better ability to score so far in their respective careers, but I wouldn't be surprised if Culver takes a big leap this year and provides some value. Being allowed to play, and perhaps star, in summer league would be a nice start.

FWIW I've seen some praise for Reddish as a defender in his young career. Obviously I haven't watched enough to confirm it so I am still skeptical but it might be worth considering he isn't a massive negative on that end. I just read Nate McMillen said yesterday that end of the court is his game and praised him so yeah maybe Reddish can defend. If that's the case with his size and length he will have some value going forward.

Yeah, I've heard the Hawks' FM and McMillan say some positive things about Cam's defense, but the numbers don't seem to back that up. I'll admit I've hardly seen him at all in the pros, but I watched him a lot at Duke and thought his defense was dreadful.

What do those same stats say about Culver's D?

In the pros Culver's stats indicate an average defender, and Reddish far below average. In college, Culver's stats were elite, and Reddish's only average.

Hence, another reason I don't believe Culver's trade market value is negative or even zero. He was a consensus top 6 pick just two years ago. He was an elite defender in college and his defense has carried over into the pros in the form of average defensive stats even as he's struggled otherwise on a bad team, especially defensively. Not only was he an elite defender in college, he carried his team to the NCAA finals with his play on both ends of the court. Of course, all of those things plus his athletic testing and character are what made him a consensus top 6 pick.

Meanwhile, Culver has struggled on a bad, poorly coached team. His first season was cut short by Covid just as he was starting to play better. Then his first off season was distorted by Covid, preventing the kind of interaction and coaching he would have otherwise had after his rookie year. His second season was a weird Covid season with no training camp, etc, and it ended in an injury that required surgery. The arrival of Ricky, Edwards and McDaniels limited Culver's playing opportunities as well 

Against that backdrop, I think it's ridiculous to believe that all those front offices that viewed Culver as a top 6 or 7 prospect in the 2019 draft have concluded that they wouldn't even want him on their team unless they can get other assets as an inducement. Of course, his play over the last two seasons has significantly reduced his market well below the equivalent of a top 6 or 7 pick. But there are undoubtedly teams out there that would give up some limited value for Culver in the hope that the change of scenery will make a difference, knowing that most players make a substantial leap in their third season, and remembering that players like Chauncey Billups became all-NBA greats only after multiple NBA seasons during which they looked like complete busts.

I don't see Culver getting much of an opportunity to play with the Wolves next season unless Beasley is traded for a big with no guards or wings in return. So barring a Beasley trade, I see no reason not to trade Culver this summer/fall. In fact, I think trading him should be a high priority. He can add value to a trade package for a quality defensive big or he can be dealt for a 2nd round pick (or late 1st) to a team with cap space to free up some room under the luxury tax to pursue a quality big in free agency.

[FNG]

Yeah, it would be a real coup for the Wolves if Culver could become the player he projected to be coming out of college (again, I still don't think that player deserved to be picked so early, but at least a late lottery pick)...either as a rotation player or a trade chip. I said this earlier, but Culver is only 22 years old and has never played in summer league (he was there as a Wolves draftee in 2019 but didn't suit up because he was still unsigned, I believe) , so he is a perfect candidate to play in this August's summer league. I honestly don't know why he wouldn't. Success in summer league doesn't necessarily translate into real NBA success, but it could go a long way to helping him restore some confidence.

There's another odd factor with Culver that I have mentioned before and may have something to do with his lack of NBA success. Lip, I know you go to a lot of games so maybe you've noticed what I have...Culver doesn't seem to have any relationships on the team. During time outs, he's always standing by himself. This is especially noticeable on a Wolves team that, despite its lack of success last season, demonstrated a lot of camaraderie. Jared just doesn't seem to fit in as "one of the guys". I think it's because he doesn't embrace the NBA life style...he's a preacher's kid and very religious himself, and I think misses out on most of the bonding experience of being on the road with his teammates. Now, that wouldn't be a factor if Jared were also performing at a high level, but he's not. Seemingly being an outcast on the team may be holding him back too. Again, playing in summer league could increase his comfort level.

[Lipoli390]

Yeah, it would be a real coup for the Wolves if Culver could become the player he projected to be coming out of college (again, I still don't think that player deserved to be picked so early, but at least a late lottery pick)...either as a rotation player or a trade chip. I said this earlier, but Culver is only 22 years old and has never played in summer league (he was there as a Wolves draftee in 2019 but didn't suit up because he was still unsigned, I believe) , so he is a perfect candidate to play in this August's summer league. I honestly don't know why he wouldn't. Success in summer league doesn't necessarily translate into real NBA success, but it could go a long way to helping him restore some confidence.

There's another odd factor with Culver that I have mentioned before and may have something to do with his lack of NBA success. Lip, I know you go to a lot of games so maybe you've noticed what I have...Culver doesn't seem to have any relationships on the team. During time outs, he's always standing by himself. This is especially noticeable on a Wolves team that, despite its lack of success last season, demonstrated a lot of camaraderie. Jared just doesn't seem to fit in as "one of the guys". I think it's because he doesn't embrace the NBA life style...he's a preacher's kid and very religious himself, and I think misses out on most of the bonding experience of being on the road with his teammates. Now, that wouldn't be a factor if Jared were also performing at a high level, but he's not. Seemingly being an outcast on the team may be holding him back too. Again, playing in summer league could increase his comfort level.

FNG - I've seen what you described on the bench, but I've also seen him interact with teammates. There might be something to what you're saying. But I think he's just a quiet, reserved guy. Kawhi Leonard doesn't interact much with his teammates on the bench. Steve Kerr never fit in with what we might call the NBA lifestyle either. So I don't put a lot of stock in the bonding thing when it comes to evaluating Culver. It's his 3-point and free-throw shooting.

I absolutely think he should participate in this year's summer league and the Wolves should strongly encourage it. However, it he plays in summer league, he'd better come ready to lay it all out there and make an impact. He can enhance his opportunity with the Wolves and improve his trade value with a stand-out summer league performance this August. The downside is that a poor showing will further diminish his already depressed market value. Right now, Culver's residual trade value remains tied to his draft status and college prowess. There's only so much of that left. Every failure at this point further erodes that residual value.

[Monster]

Lip you make a good case and to be honest both of us believe Culver still has a future as an NBA player. Still I'm going to push back on Culver's value and throwing out some other considerations.

The 2019 draft who has more value Culver or Moses Brown? Brown was undrafted and is a Center. Fortunately the Wolves also got Naz Reid as an undrafted guy signed a cheap deal from that same class.

At this point what is he difference between Culver and Amir Coffey who was also undrafted? How about Lu Dort? Those guys are cheap and are examples of how roster spots are really valuable. Unfortunately despite all the stuff Culver has gone through...I'm comparing him to guys teams could get for less than a third of the cost and possibly roughly as much upside. There are a lot of these undrafted guys that at one point were highly regarded players not very long ago also. The fact that teams can lock in those guys on cheap contracts is a real bonus too and some of them even on 2-ways deals.

Look at it another way. If Juancho was making the vet min how would you feel about him? What if Rubio was making 6-7 million next season? That's a third or so of their salary like comparing Culver to a vet min guy. Culver simply costs a pretty decent chunk of money and the team that gets him isn't even certain they will be able to keep him after this season because we all assume he will have his 4th year option declined. Id rather take a chance on a guy that I have more control of whether I kee him or not (and cost controlled) than Basically a 1 year 6 million dollar shot.

Personally I would prefer to keep Culver around than deal him. I'd rather move Layman although I think layman could be useful if resigned to a cheap deal after this year. Culver has more potential than Layman but I kinda see both of them as guys that after this year could bring value to the team if they can be retained cheaply. Depth does matter and we may need some guys as there is no guarantee that Okogie will be back after this season. Right now I'm not sure I would give Okogie the 5.8 million qualifying offer to make him a RFA. That 1 year price might be more than he is worth and I really like Okogie.

[FNG]

Monster, I agree... Culver's salary does look unattractive compared to some of those players you mention. But one big difference between him and some of the guys in your post is that just two years ago he led a fairly mediocre (at least offensively...they did play some stellar defense) Texas Tech team to a 31-7 record and an overtime loss in the NCAA championship game. So he showed he can perform during the regular season and under the big lights. So it's not preposterous to think he can at least approach the level of play he achieved as a 19 year old...a level he hasn't even sniffed in the NBA. Pipe dream? Perhaps. But a lot of GMs have that tournament run in their memory bank, and might be willing to take a chance on seeing if a new environment is all he needs. My preference is to keep him and see if he can find his lost game, but including him in a deal to a team that sees more potential than perhaps we do is also a possibility.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Monster, I'm the first to agree that Culver has had a horrible first two years in the NBA. That said, I would not be stunned if he became a serviceable NBA player, and I actually would not trade him straight up for Reddish. Reddish was a HS star that every college wanted, but he had a remarkably average year at Duke and has looked similarly lackluster in the pros. Both have struggled offensively, but the big difference between the two, both in college and in the NBA, has been on defense...Culver is a much better defender. Reddish has made some big shots in this series, but neither player was a good 3-point shooter on college and we shouldn't expect a turnaround in the pros. But despite his free throw ineptitude, Culver is niftier with the ball around the basket and a far better defender. Both were poor selections in the draft, but I prefer Culver. I think you're correct, monster, that Culver and Nowell will be battling for relevance in the rotation. I've preferred Nowell's much better ability to score so far in their respective careers, but I wouldn't be surprised if Culver takes a big leap this year and provides some value. Being allowed to play, and perhaps star, in summer league would be a nice start.

FWIW I've seen some praise for Reddish as a defender in his young career. Obviously I haven't watched enough to confirm it so I am still skeptical but it might be worth considering he isn't a massive negative on that end. I just read Nate McMillen said yesterday that end of the court is his game and praised him so yeah maybe Reddish can defend. If that's the case with his size and length he will have some value going forward.

Yeah, I've heard the Hawks' FM and McMillan say some positive things about Cam's defense, but the numbers don't seem to back that up. I'll admit I've hardly seen him at all in the pros, but I watched him a lot at Duke and thought his defense was dreadful.

Having watched him defend Middleton some, he looked really good. Middleton was still able to make some shots, but they were a higher-degree of difficulty. Middleton was eating Huerter's lunch and Cam was able to slow him down. Not sure how that translates into a regular rotation role, but I was impressed.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I always thought Culver's defense was stickier than Okogie. Josh is better at drawing offensive fouls, but when he doesn't get the call, he leaves his opponent lots of space for an open look as he's falling backwards. Culver tends to stay tighter to his guy.

At the end of the day, neither of these two will be much help if they can't hit a wide open corner 3. They gotta be able to hit that shot. PJ Tucker isn't PJ Tucker without being able to make that shot. Same with Jae Crowder. Same with Trevor Ariza. Same with Mikal Bridges. Same with Dorian Finney-Smith. Same with Royce O'Neal. Same with......you get the point.

[Monster]

Monster, I agree... Culver's salary does look unattractive compared to some of those players you mention. But one big difference between him and some of the guys in your post is that just two years ago he led a fairly mediocre (at least offensively...they did play some stellar defense) Texas Tech team to a 31-7 record and an overtime loss in the NCAA championship game. So he showed he can perform during the regular season and under the big lights. So it's not preposterous to think he can at least approach the level of play he achieved as a 19 year old...a level he hasn't even sniffed in the NBA. Pipe dream? Perhaps. But a lot of GMs have that tournament run in their memory bank, and might be willing to take a chance on seeing if a new environment is all he needs. My preference is to keep him and see if he can find his lost game, but including him in a deal to a team that sees more potential than perhaps we do is also a possibility.

Remember when it was a joke that the Wolves would select the tournament's most valuable player every draft? How many of those guys have been meh in the league?

Lu Dort as a freshman led his team to a 22-11 record. Naz Reid played on a team that only lost 7 games and made it to the sweet 16.

Jarrett Culver went 5-22 in that championship game. The previous game he shot 3-12. So about those bright lights...