Wolves and Ben Simmons: The 3-Team Scenario

[Lipoli390]

Darren Wolfson: Sachin Gupta wants Ben Simmons. The same hurdles remain, but can he now be more creative on three-team scenarios? That still seems to be the key. But make not mistake: Gupta is all in on acquiring Ben Simmons. - via Spotify

I thought I'd start a thread devoted solely to this narrative about the Wolves needing a third team for a trade to get Ben Simmons. Doogie isn't the brightest bulb and is a notoriously unreliable reporter. But his comment about a third team is similar to comments from others. Nevertheless, I just don't see it.

The 3-team narrative emerges from doubts about whether the Wolves have the win-now player the Sixers would consider essential as part of an incoming package for Simmons. I'm among those who believe the Sixers won't do a deal that doesn't net them a high-caliber starter who can help them win now and remain in contention during this time-limited window they're in with Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris. Since the Wolves won't make KAT or Edwards available, I can see where the Sixers might be able to get better win-now players than DLO or Beasley in return for Simmons. In that sense, I understand the quick pivot to the abstract notion of a 3-team deal as the only way the Wolves' only path to Simmons. But once you start getting even remotely behind the abstract and consider reality, a 3-team deal for Simmons makes no sense. It presumes that there's a team out there with the sort of win-now player the Sixers would prefer over DLO or Beasley and that the team with that preferred win-now player would rather get what the Wolves have to offer than Ben Simmons. In other words, this mystery third-team would rather have DLO, Beasley and/or future draft picks than Ben Simmons in exchange for the all-star caliber guard the Sixers want.

At a minimum, that mystery 3rd team would have to be in pure rebuilding mode - a short list of teams that have no chance of making the playoffs even with Ben Simmons. The only teams that might fall into that category are Detroit and Orlando. But neither of those teams have the sort of high-caliber guard the Sixers would want - certainly no one better than DLO. Maybe Toronto or Cleveland would rather get DLO and a future 1st-round pick pick instead of Simmons in exchange for VanVleet or Sexton. Maybe Indiana would prefer DLO and a future pick over Simmons in exchange for Brogdon. Perhaps the Kings would prefer DLO and a future pick over Simmons in exchange for Haliburton and Hield. All those maybes seem crazy to me. And that leads back to my beginning premise - i.e., there is not realistic 3-team alternative for the Wolves to get Simmons. In other words, if the Wolves don't have the assets to get Ben Simmons directly, Ben Simmons will not be coming to Minnesota other than his one or two games at Target Center while playing for another team.

I'm curious to see what others on this board think about the 3-team idea. I'm also interested in any 3-team suggestions that might make sense.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Lip, if the three-team trade does materialize it will be young player(s) on their first contract -- Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Jaylen Nowell, etc. -- and draft picks along with an expiring contract heading to that third team for whatever established player(s) they have that Philadelphia would be interested in. It's unlikely that third team would desire a D'Angelo Russell nor does it seem like Minnesota wants to move him even with new leadership in place, but the latter could obviously change.

I think you're focusing on the wrong tier of teams that could fit this trade format. Bottom feeders are less likely to have the caliber of player that the Sixers would be interested in with the exclusion of Oklahoma City and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. I think it's the teams that are stuck somewhere in the middle that would be more suitable trade partners. Think San Antonio, Memphis, Indiana, Cleveland, Charlotte, Toronto, and maybe even Atlanta despite their post-season success last year. Yes, it's true that some of those teams likely have interest in acquiring Ben Simmons themselves, but are they developed enough to win after giving up the necessary assets to acquire him? Or are they still in the process of gathering assets to compete in a window in the future? Some of them might not even be the right fit for his talents.

Finding a third team to complete a deal will not be easy. There are few teams that have the tradable pieces and the means of selling them for assets. This is why I continue to think that there's just as good of a chance that Minnesota will complete a two-team trade for Simmons by offering the most value in a deal regardless of its "win now" properties. The Sixers need a route to a star player when this is all said and done. If they can't acquire one now, and it's looking like they won't, then they need to be able to collect what's required later or else they risk completely closing their window as a championship level team.

[Lipoli390]

Cam, I agree with both of your points: (1) that the Wolves outgoing package would likely be centered around young players and future picks; and (2) that any potential 3rd team would come from among the mid-tier teams you listed. I referred to "DLO, Beasley and/or future picks."

Regarding the outgoing Wolves package, I neglected to mention young upside talent on the roster along with picks. The Wolves would have to include at least one high-salaried player to make any 3-team deal work. DLO is the easy one because his salary is only $3M less than Ben's. But like you, I don't think any of those mid-tier terms would be interested in DLO. The Wolves' outgoing package would likely include McDaniels and one of the other young guys you mentioned in addition to future picks. I suspect the package would also have to include Beasley - routed either to the Sixers or the 3rd team.

I had the same mid-tier teams in mind when trying to imagine who a realistic third team might be. I mentioned Toronto, Cleveland and Indiana. San Antonio is another possibility. I don't think Memphis would be a candidate unless they're willing to give up Ja Morant and that's not going to happen. Similarly I don't see Charlotte as a candidate unless they're willing to give up LaMello Ball, which won't happen. Finally, I don't see Atlanta as a candidate. They're in full win-now mode. I can't imagine them giving up any of their win-now pieces to the Sixers - and certainly not for a package centered around McDaniels, Nowell and future picks - i.e., potential.

That leaves the Spurs, Raptors, Pacers and Cavs. In each case, I don't see why any of those teams would consider themselves better off trading their best win-now player to Philly in exchange of young potential and picks from MN rather than Simmons. They are no more removed from playoff contention than the Wolves. Cleveland and Toronto had records nearly identical to the Wolves record last season. San Antonio and Indiana had substantially better records than the Wolves last season, as did Memphis and Charlotte. If the Spurs are willing to trade Djounte Murray and other assets, including Poeltl and/or future picks, I'm not sure why they'd prefer a Wolves package of McDaniels, Nowell and a pick over Simmons.

Anyway, like you, I see a bilateral deal between the Wolves and Sixers as far more likely than a three-team deal.