Minnesota Timberwolves: Rumor Mill

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I don't think we will end up with him, but it does seem like the chances of us getting Ben Simmons in a trade is increasing by the day. There's just not enough suitors anymore, what is there besides us Sacramento and a couple other teams maybe?

Agreed, Bloop. I feel like Portland and Washington are really the only teams that could swoop in and truly outbid Minnesota by making their franchise players available. Sacramento has an intriguing offer on the table, but it's one that Minnesota could beat at any given moment. Here's the thing, though. The Wolves would ideally wait this process out so that their newly acquired players -- Patrick Beverley and Taurean Prince -- could be included and then they could just provide an assortment of draft compensation.

[Lipoli390]

Thinking some more about the Simmons trade rumors that Cam shared. The more I reflect, the more those rumors ring true. That's a lot of stuff to just make up. The various rumored trades all align pretty well. Those rumors find further support in the fact that Simmons hasn't been dealt yet.

Morey is obviously holding out for a star player in return. That's something we've heard from reliable NBA reporters. Morey clear and understandably covets Lillard, who would be a perfect fit for Embiid. He'd likely have to give up more than Simmons to get him and, thus far, it appears that neither Portland nor Lillard is interested in such a trade. Beal is another star-caliber player Morey has apparently and understandably targeted in a Simmons deal. But it looks like the Wizards and Beal want to give it another try together this upcoming season. So I'm not surprised that Morey would insist on getting KAT or Edwards in return for Simmons and that's something the Rosas shouldn't entertain.

The market has apparently spoken and it has set Simmons' value considerably lower than Morey was expecting or seeking. If the rumors Cam posted are largely true, then I think the market price for Simmons puts him within reach for the Wolves. And I think that market value opens the door to a deal build around DLO or Beasley. If I were Rosas, as my bottom line I would exclude KAT, Edwards and McDaniels from any deal. I'd be willing to trade DLO or Beasley, but not both. And I'd be willing to trade one future top-4 protected first round pick along with one or two future 2nd-round picks. I think the most sensible deal for both sides would be a deal build around DLO based on player value and salary match. The following hypothetical scenario is one that I would consider reasonable:

- Wolves Get: Simmons
- Sixers Get: (a) DLO; (b) Layman or Okogie; (c) the Wolves 2023 1st (top-4 protected); (d) Naz Reid; and (e) Sixers 2022 2nd returned

The Wolves would have a defensive PG to match up with their offensive-oriented core of KAT, Edwards and Beasley. The Would would also get an additional $2.7M in luxury tax room they could use to sign Hartenstein or Millsap while still signing Vanderbilt and J-Mac.

The Sixers would get a former all-star PG who is a big shot market and perimeter threat to pair with Embiid, more depth in Layman or Okogie, a very talented, high-upside center in Naz Reid and a valuable lightly-protected 2023 1st round pick.

If this wouldn't be good enough for the Sixers then so be it.

It's worth noting that the Sixers only have like 1 open roster spot and I read they are planning to sign their 2nd round pick Charles Bassey to an NBA deal. How much to the value everyone that's on a guaranteed contract? No idea but everyone I don't know about is on a cheap contract which may be vakueable to a team like the Sixers who need cheap players.

Question: If the Wolves did trade for Simmons would you (or others here) consider adding Vanderbilt as an asset in that trade in a sign and trade or would you prefer to keep him? Sixers do have a trade exception if they valued Vanderbilt. That would be a technically separate transaction for the sign and trade but teams do trades like that to make things work. I'd like to keep Vanderbilt but if we got Simmons and he was some sort of solid asset in making the trade happen then I would be cool pulling the trigger.

Monster -

As you noted, the Sixers have one open roster spot if they don't sign Bassey or sign him as a two-way player. However, two of their 14 current roster players, Springer and Reed, have non-guaranteed contracts. So the Sixers can easily take two or three players in return for Simmons.

Like you, I'd prefer to keep Vanderbilt, but I wouldn't let my desire to keep Vanderbilt stand in the way of landing Simmons. I suspect the Sixers would prefer to have Naz Reid included in the deal.

If Morey is intent on trading Simmons before the start of the season, I think a package of DLO, Layman or Okogie and Naz Reid, plus a our 2023 first-round pick (top 10 protected) could get the job done unless Lillard, Beal or Fox suddenly become available for a Simmons swap. I don't think Cleveland is in the mix any more after trading Prince and trading for Markkanen. I would think that the Sixers might be tempted to settle on a Portland deal centered around McCollum. Maybe Morey would prefer VanVleet and Anunoby from Toronto or Barnes and Haliburton over DLO, Layman and Naz. But if the Sixers trade Simmons, they'll need someone to run the offense and that would be DLO. Haliburton hasn't proven himself yet in that role in the NBA. Neither Barnes nor Buddy Hield would fill that need and neither would McCollum. VanVleet maybe, but DLO is better.

[Lipoli390]

I don't think we will end up with him, but it does seem like the chances of us getting Ben Simmons in a trade is increasing by the day. There's just not enough suitors anymore, what is there besides us Sacramento and a couple other teams maybe?

Agreed, Bloop. I feel like Portland and Washington are really the only teams that could swoop in and truly outbid Minnesota by making their franchise players available. Sacramento has an intriguing offer on the table, but it's one that Minnesota could beat at any given moment. Here's the thing, though. The Wolves would ideally wait this process out so that their newly acquired players -- Patrick Beverley and Taurean Prince -- could be included and then they could just provide an assortment of draft compensation.

I don't think the Sixers will settle for Beverley, Prince and a bunch of draft picks in exchange for Simmons. I'm convinced that DLO or Beasley would have to be included. I think giving up one of those two for Simmons would make sense for both teams, but I wouldn't give up both if I were Rosas. And I think DLO is the better fit for the Sixers because, after trading Simmons, they'll need someone to run their offense. As a win-now team, the Sixers won't settle on Maxey as their main PG. I agree that the Wolves are out of the running if either Beal or Lillard suddenly become available for a Simmons deal. I would add that the same is true if the Kings decided they're willing to include Fox.

[KG4Ever]

Thinking some more about the Simmons trade rumors that Cam shared. The more I reflect, the more those rumors ring true. That's a lot of stuff to just make up. The various rumored trades all align pretty well. Those rumors find further support in the fact that Simmons hasn't been dealt yet.

Morey is obviously holding out for a star player in return. That's something we've heard from reliable NBA reporters. Morey clear and understandably covets Lillard, who would be a perfect fit for Embiid. He'd likely have to give up more than Simmons to get him and, thus far, it appears that neither Portland nor Lillard is interested in such a trade. Beal is another star-caliber player Morey has apparently and understandably targeted in a Simmons deal. But it looks like the Wizards and Beal want to give it another try together this upcoming season. So I'm not surprised that Morey would insist on getting KAT or Edwards in return for Simmons and that's something the Rosas shouldn't entertain.

The market has apparently spoken and it has set Simmons' value considerably lower than Morey was expecting or seeking. If the rumors Cam posted are largely true, then I think the market price for Simmons puts him within reach for the Wolves. And I think that market value opens the door to a deal build around DLO or Beasley. If I were Rosas, as my bottom line I would exclude KAT, Edwards and McDaniels from any deal. I'd be willing to trade DLO or Beasley, but not both. And I'd be willing to trade one future top-4 protected first round pick along with one or two future 2nd-round picks. I think the most sensible deal for both sides would be a deal build around DLO based on player value and salary match. The following hypothetical scenario is one that I would consider reasonable:

- Wolves Get: Simmons
- Sixers Get: (a) DLO; (b) Layman or Okogie; (c) the Wolves 2023 1st (top-4 protected); (d) Naz Reid; and (e) Sixers 2022 2nd returned

The Wolves would have a defensive PG to match up with their offensive-oriented core of KAT, Edwards and Beasley. The Would would also get an additional $2.7M in luxury tax room they could use to sign Hartenstein or Millsap while still signing Vanderbilt and J-Mac.

The Sixers would get a former all-star PG who is a big shot market and perimeter threat to pair with Embiid, more depth in Layman or Okogie, a very talented, high-upside center in Naz Reid and a valuable lightly-protected 2023 1st round pick.

If this wouldn't be good enough for the Sixers then so be it.

It's worth noting that the Sixers only have like 1 open roster spot and I read they are planning to sign their 2nd round pick Charles Bassey to an NBA deal. How much to the value everyone that's on a guaranteed contract? No idea but everyone I don't know about is on a cheap contract which may be vakueable to a team like the Sixers who need cheap players.

Question: If the Wolves did trade for Simmons would you (or others here) consider adding Vanderbilt as an asset in that trade in a sign and trade or would you prefer to keep him? Sixers do have a trade exception if they valued Vanderbilt. That would be a technically separate transaction for the sign and trade but teams do trades like that to make things work. I'd like to keep Vanderbilt but if we got Simmons and he was some sort of solid asset in making the trade happen then I would be cool pulling the trigger.

Monster -

As you noted, the Sixers have one open roster spot if they don't sign Bassey or sign him as a two-way player. However, two of their 14 current roster players, Springer and Reed, have non-guaranteed contracts. So the Sixers can easily take two or three players in return for Simmons.

Like you, I'd prefer to keep Vanderbilt, but I wouldn't let my desire to keep Vanderbilt stand in the way of landing Simmons. I suspect the Sixers would prefer to have Naz Reid included in the deal.

If Morey is intent on trading Simmons before the start of the season, I think a package of DLO, Layman or Okogie and Naz Reid, plus a our 2023 first-round pick (top 10 protected) could get the job done unless Lillard, Beal or Fox suddenly become available for a Simmons swap. I don't think Cleveland is in the mix any more after trading Prince and trading for Markkanen. I would think that the Sixers might be tempted to settle on a Portland deal centered around McCollum. Maybe Morey would prefer VanVleet and Anunoby from Toronto or Barnes and Haliburton over DLO, Layman and Naz. But if the Sixers trade Simmons, they'll need someone to run the offense and that would be DLO. Haliburton hasn't proven himself yet in that role in the NBA. Neither Barnes nor Buddy Hield would fill that need and neither would McCollum. VanVleet maybe, but DLO is better.

I wouldn't say DLO is better than VanVleet. VanVleet has been a plus player his entire career and is known as a pesky defender who racks up a lot of steals, despite lacking length. While I'd say the one edge DLO has is outside shooting, but because VanVleet is such a good free throw shooter and make a good volume of threes, his true shooting percentage is not too far off. In fact, his career True Shooting Percentage eclipses DLO, but DLO's TS% recently has been a bit better. VanVleet has a much better Assist/Turnover rate. I think VanVleet's ball handling and defensive edge is greater than DLo's shooting edge. Also, VanVleet's contract is more than $10 million a year cheaper. If Toronto were to offer VanVleet plus Anunoby then they may have the best non Lillard or Beal deal to offer.

[Lipoli390]

KG4 -- You could be right about Philly preferring VanVleet over DLO. If so, the VanVleet/Anunoby package would probably be more attractive to Philly than than the DLO/Layman/Reid package. We could beat that if we also included Beasley, but I wouldn't do that. We might be able to beat that by giving up more or less protected draft picks.

Bottom line is that the market is telling us the Wolves have a realistic chance of getting Simmons without unduly depleting their own roster or completely mortgaging their future. And I don't think Philly would consider Sacramento's package of Haliburton and Barnes or even Harliburton and Buddy better than a Wolves package of DLO, Layman or Okogie and Reid. The sands shift dramatically if the Kings make Fox available. Fox would be a perfect fit and a coup for Philly. Swapping him for Simmons seems like a logical move for a Kings team that had the 2nd worst defense in the League last season.

[FNG]

Lip, I certainly don't know what kind of package Philly will settle for in moving Simmons, but my gut tells me a package built around Dlo and Layman won't be enough...I think a scorer like Beasley would have to be included. I hear concerns about how effective our offense would be if we lost both Dlo and Beas, and I get it. For me though, it comes down to which rotation would I rather go into the season with (assuming we don't acquire another big man).

Dlo/Beverley
Ant/Beasley
Jaden/Prince
Vando/Knight
KAT/Reid

or,

Beverley/JMac
Ant/Nowell
Jaden/Prince
Simmons/Vando
KAT/Reid

It's not clear to me which one would be stronger, but I think Simmons is a game changer, so my preference is for the second rotation. We'd essentially be exchanging Dlo/Beas for Simmons/Nowell in the rotation. My argument is the improvement in our defense would be more significant than any loss of offense. I wonder how you and others compare the two rotations.

[Lipoli390]

Lip, I certainly don't know what kind of package Philly will settle for in moving Simmons, but my gut tells me a package built around Dlo and Layman won't be enough...I think a scorer like Beasley would have to be included. I hear concerns about how effective our offense would be if we lost both Dlo and Beas, and I get it. For me though, it comes down to which rotation would I rather go into the season with (assuming we don't acquire another big man).

Dlo/Beverley
Ant/Beasley
Jaden/Prince
Vando/Knight
KAT/Reid

or,

Beverley/JMac
Ant/Nowell
Jaden/Prince
Simmons/Vando
KAT/Reid

It's not clear to me which one would be stronger, but I think Simmons is a game changer, so my preference is for the second rotation. We'd essentially be exchanging Dlo/Beas for Simmons/Nowell in the rotation. My argument is the improvement in our defense would be more significant than any loss of offense. I wonder how you and others compare the two rotations.

I'll take the first rotation, FNG. I don't see Beverley as a starter, especially now at age 33. And it's highly unlikely he stays healthy, which makes relying on J-Mac as our #2 PG even more problematic. I like Nowell, but I'd hate to enter the season knowing we have to rely on him as our #2 SG. Moreover, we'd have only two proven good three-point shooters on the roster in KAT and Beverley. One of those two probably won't stay healthy. Ant might become a good or very good three-point shooter, but I wouldn't want to bank on it. I even have doubts about dealing DLO for Simmons because Simmons is such a poor perimeter and free-throw shooter, but I'd do the deal anyway. I just wouldn't give up two of our three top three-point shooters for Simmons. Trading both DLO and Beasley for Simmons just wouldn't be a significant step forward in my view, especially if we also had to give up a future 1st-round pick or two.

If the DLO package I suggested wouldn't be enough then so be it. If the information Cam posted is true, then my package is in line with Simmons' market value right now - actually on the higher end of that value. You might be right that Morey wouldn't do the deal, but if I'm Rosas I'm not going to pay more than market value for Simmons. I suspect that Morey is waiting for Lillard, Beal or Fox to become available. If that happens, the Wolves are clearly out of the picture. If not, then I think my DLO package and the VanVleet/Anunoby package are the best Morey will get.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

If Philadelphia continues to wait to trade Ben Simmons in hopes that Damian Lillard or Bradley Beal become available, and I think Philadelphia will, then Minnesota's chances of getting Simmons for a discount become better and better, in my opinion.

The rumored offer from the Wolves was two sizable expiring contracts and multiple first-round picks plus swap(s). I don't see Gersson Rosas abandoning that type of an offer. If that rumor is true, then it shows me that Minnesota wants to add Simmons to this group without altering the pieces already in place. In the meantime, he's essentially upgraded Ricky Rubio into Patrick Beverley, Jarrett Culver into Taurean Prince, and added Washington's second-round pick as a tradable asset. What comes with that is a 60-day waiting period before Beverley and Prince can have their salaries aggregated -- either with each other or with Malik Beasley. So, the longer this plays out, the better I think it is for Minnesota.

I also think fans should prepare themselves for the possibility that Minnesota offers three (or maybe even four, but hopefully not) first-round picks in order to hold on to all of the young players they've accumulated. Rosas has shown the ability to find talent outside of the first round -- or late in the round but within reach of trading up for -- that first-round picks are mainly trade ammunition to him.

I tend to now think that Rosas will hang on to his young talent and still make a serious effort to acquire Simmons. If he's successful, I like that rotation a lot better than either of the one's FNG posted, respectfully. Like I said before, Simmons is a perfect fit in Minnesota as long as you don't have to completely rearrange the roster.

PG: D'Angelo Russell / Jordan McLaughlin
SG: Anthony Edwards / Malik Beasley
SF: Jaden McDaniels / Josh Okogie
PF: *Ben Simmons / Jarred Vanderbilt
C: Karl-Anthony Towns / Naz Reid

*Ben Simmons could also act as the backup point guard in this scenario.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Update:

Typically, a player who has been dealt can't have his salary aggregated in a second trade for 60 days, but that window had been shortened last season to account for the compressed schedule and is based on the mapping table provided by the NBA.

- Taurean Prince can be aggregated starting on September 12.

- Patrick Beverley can be aggregated starting on October 1.

- The NBA regular season begins on October 19.

- Minnesota's season opener is on October 20.

This post is intended to illustrate a possible timeline for a Ben Simmons acquisition. October 1 seems like an important date to me.

[FNG]

If Philadelphia continues to wait to trade Ben Simmons in hopes that Damian Lillard or Bradley Beal become available, and I think Philadelphia will, then Minnesota's chances of getting Simmons for a discount become better and better, in my opinion.

The rumored offer from the Wolves was two sizable expiring contracts and multiple first-round picks plus swap(s). I don't see Gersson Rosas abandoning that type of an offer. If that rumor is true, then it shows me that Minnesota wants to add Simmons to this group without altering the pieces already in place. In the meantime, he's essentially upgraded Ricky Rubio into Patrick Beverley, Jarrett Culver into Taurean Prince, and added Washington's second-round pick as a tradable asset. What comes with that is a 60-day waiting period before Beverley and Prince can have their salaries aggregated -- either with each other or with Malik Beasley. So, the longer this plays out, the better I think it is for Minnesota.

I also think fans should prepare themselves for the possibility that Minnesota offers three (or maybe even four, but hopefully not) first-round picks in order to hold on to all of the young players they've accumulated. Rosas has shown the ability to find talent outside of the first round -- or late in the round but within reach of trading up for -- that first-round picks are mainly trade ammunition to him.

I tend to now think that Rosas will hang on to his young talent and still make a serious effort to acquire Simmons. If he's successful, I like that rotation a lot better than either of the one's FNG posted,I respectfully. Like I said before, Simmons is a perfect fit in Minnesota as long as you don't have to completely rearrange the roster.

PG: D'Angelo Russell / Jordan McLaughlin
SG: Anthony Edwards / Malik Beasley
SF: Jaden McDaniels / Josh Okogie
PF: *Ben Simmons / Jarred Vanderbilt
C: Karl-Anthony Towns / Naz Reid

*Ben Simmons could also act as the backup point guard in this scenario.

Yeah, I think we all would love that rotation...I think it wins 52 games if everyone is healthy. And the team is so young, the potential loss of draft picks is not too much of a deterrent. I'm still quite skeptical, but I appreciate the glimmer of hope in here.

Lip, you make some valid points in your reply to me about which rotation I proposed is superior. We differ in areas we have discussed elsewhere...I likely value Simmons' offense more than you, and you likely are more optimistic than I about how good our defense will be if we make no further changes to the roster. If I were to project win totals for the two rotations I threw out there and the one Cam suggested, it would be:

Cam's: 52 wins
FNG's option 2: 48
FNG's option 1: 34