I'm going with 28. Even with Butler, this team is in a shambles in terms of chemistry and motivation. Thibs has lost the team and no one is going to die on a hill for him. We will see this first and foremost in our defense, which was the worst in the league during the pre-season.
The volatility of the predictions depending on if/when we trade Jimmy is obviously a testament to how important we all recognize he is to this team, even if most of us understandably kind of hate his guts right now. Side note--can anybody think of any other players who made themselves as hated by their fanbases but were still clearly the best player on their team?
I predict we're keeping Butler until at least the trade deadline, and I'd guess a 75-80% chance we have him the whole season, because Thibs probably won't get anything much better in his mind than a shot in the playoffs and cap space. So by that logic, I'll predict 46 wins. That's worse than our pace with Jimmy last year to take into consideration the chance we might lose him at some point. But if he's healthy and we don't trade him, I could see us cracking the 50s, crazy as it sounds with the West getting loaded.
I think those picks in the 20s are a bit pessimistic, but even if we DON'T trade Jimmy, there's also a chance that this whole thing goes really bad because of the chemistry problems. Even with the talent, if the guys stop competing with each other because they don't like each other, then this could quickly go south. Plenty of teams have had the talent, but just gave up on each other and basically imploded--and clearly the awkward/bad chemistry between Butler and Towns has to be the biggest concern. Jimmy seems to be an agent of chaos, stirring up all this trouble, and then reveling in it. Towns is clearly tired of all the attention and trouble that Jimmy has stirred up. I'm frankly worried about how Towns is going to play this year with this circus going on.
EDIT: I changed it from 45 to 46 because everybody's picking their own number so far. I guess we don't want to share the glory! Maybe we're the ones with chemistry problems.
SameOldNudityDrew wrote:The volatility of the predictions depending on if/when we trade Jimmy is obviously a testament to how important we all recognize he is to this team, even if most of us understandably kind of hate his guts right now. Side note--can anybody think of any other players who made themselves as hated by their fanbases but were still clearly the best player on their team?
I predict we're keeping Butler until at least the trade deadline, and I'd guess a 75-80% chance we have him the whole season, because Thibs probably won't get anything much better in his mind than a shot in the playoffs and cap space. So by that logic, I'll predict 46 wins. That's worse than our pace with Jimmy last year to take into consideration the chance we might lose him at some point. But if he's healthy and we don't trade him, I could see us cracking the 50s, crazy as it sounds with the West getting loaded.
I think those picks in the 20s are a bit pessimistic, but even if we DON'T trade Jimmy, there's also a chance that this whole thing goes really bad because of the chemistry problems. Even with the talent, if the guys stop competing with each other because they don't like each other, then this could quickly go south. Plenty of teams have had the talent, but just gave up on each other and basically imploded--and clearly the awkward/bad chemistry between Butler and Towns has to be the biggest concern. Jimmy seems to be an agent of chaos, stirring up all this trouble, and then reveling in it. Towns is clearly tired of all the attention and trouble that Jimmy has stirred up. I'm frankly worried about how Towns is going to play this year with this circus going on.
EDIT: I changed it from 45 to 46 because everybody's picking their own number so far. I guess we don't want to share the glory! Maybe we're the ones with chemistry problems.
Khans and Jerry both picked the same number of wins, as did Tim and LST.
I'm pessimistic because I think Thibs has lost the team. They aren't going to play hard for him and Taylor will drag his feet as long as possible before firing him.
It is interesting though to go down the list of Western Conference teams. Some of them have really improved.
The Lakers added LeBron James.
Memphis added Conley and Gasol and a promising rookie... and maybe even a semi-healthy Chandler Parsons along with some surprisingly frisky Euro guys like Marshon Brooks.
Dallas added a recent All NBA center... and arguably the top rookie in the league.
Denver is expecting growth from multiple young players. Plus, they have a recent All NBA guy coming off the bench now.
There's no way the Clippers can be as injury-prone as last year, right?
Even Phoenix is getting buzz for its growing chest of young promising players.
About the only team facing an expected downturn is San Antonio... in large part because of a rash of injuries.
But at least the Spurs fans have a bit more goodwill built up... than one season with one playoff win.
SameOldNudityDrew wrote:The volatility of the predictions depending on if/when we trade Jimmy is obviously a testament to how important we all recognize he is to this team, even if most of us understandably kind of hate his guts right now. Side note--can anybody think of any other players who made themselves as hated by their fanbases but were still clearly the best player on their team?
I predict we're keeping Butler until at least the trade deadline, and I'd guess a 75-80% chance we have him the whole season, because Thibs probably won't get anything much better in his mind than a shot in the playoffs and cap space. So by that logic, I'll predict 46 wins. That's worse than our pace with Jimmy last year to take into consideration the chance we might lose him at some point. But if he's healthy and we don't trade him, I could see us cracking the 50s, crazy as it sounds with the West getting loaded.
I think those picks in the 20s are a bit pessimistic, but even if we DON'T trade Jimmy, there's also a chance that this whole thing goes really bad because of the chemistry problems. Even with the talent, if the guys stop competing with each other because they don't like each other, then this could quickly go south. Plenty of teams have had the talent, but just gave up on each other and basically imploded--and clearly the awkward/bad chemistry between Butler and Towns has to be the biggest concern. Jimmy seems to be an agent of chaos, stirring up all this trouble, and then reveling in it. Towns is clearly tired of all the attention and trouble that Jimmy has stirred up. I'm frankly worried about how Towns is going to play this year with this circus going on.
EDIT: I changed it from 45 to 46 because everybody's picking their own number so far. I guess we don't want to share the glory! Maybe we're the ones with chemistry problems.
Khans and Jerry both picked the same number of wins, as did Tim and LST.
I'm pessimistic because I think Thibs has lost the team. They aren't going to play hard for him and Taylor will drag his feet as long as possible before firing him.
Yeah, I can see that. That's actually been pretty obvious for a while that the guys don't really seem to like Thibs or respond to him positively. We did still win last year despite that, but I can definitely see his handling of this situation further alienating KAT in particular.
The weird thing is that in all the interviews I've seen so far, KAT and Thibs seem to be the most upset and frustrated, whereas the other guys seem to be relatively ok with what Jimmy's done. Maybe that's just that they're better at hiding their feelings, but I wonder how many guys on the team actually are fine with Jimmy. KAT doesn't seem to be. And that's the worst, because he's the most important guy to the future of this franchise.
khans2k5 wrote:Jimmy 82 games - 50
Jimmy 41 games - 34
This looks pretty accurate, but I'm going to break it down further (with apologies to Q...the Butler situation just provides way too much variability). I think Jimmy provided close to 18 wins last season, and I think he still is worth 14 wins this season. So:
If Butler is on the roster the entire season: 51
If Butler is on the roster closer to half the season: 44
If Butler is traded within the first month of the seaon: 37
There is a Thibs factor in play also, but I'm not going to muddy this up any further. This is Q's thread, but I might suggest another prediction thread once the Thibs and Butler situations get resolved.
Nice break down, but you gotta pick one for the WPT. Part of the factors that go into your prediction is trying to figure out when Butler gets traded. It's no different than guessing on injuries, progress of young guys, and other unknowables. Just like with Khansy, I will put you down for your low end estimate unless you tell me otherwise.
Like a true Timberwolves fan I agree with your instinct to go with the lower number lol.
