Timberwolves Draft Prospect Analysis Thread

[Lipoli390]

Lottery day is fast approaching. In a little over 48 hours we will know the Wolves draft position. I've been spending a lot of time this weekend reading reviews and watching videos of this year's 1st round prospects. I'm convinced more now than ever that this is a particularly weak draft class once you get beyond the top 3 or 4.

THE TOP 4 - Zion, Ja, Barrett, Garland

I see a top tier of two who are likely to become elite/star NBA players - Zion & Ja. Then I see a second tier of likely all all-stars with some superstar potential - Barrett & Garland. After those two, I see a huge drop off. There are several others with what I'd consider star potential, namely Reddish, Bol Bol, Porter Jr. and Langford. But all four, especially the first three, have major red flags associated with them. Right now, I have Reddish and Bol Bol on my stay-away list, which means I wouldn't draft them under any circumstances, regardless of who is or isn't available.

THE TALENTED RED FLAGGED FOUR - Reddish, Bol Bol, Porter & Langdon

Reddish has a bigger red flag flying over his name than Wiggins did when he came out of college. Reddish took disappearing from games to another level of invisibility as a college freshman. His 39% FG shooting and all around terrible college stats reinforce the stay-away signals you get watching him play as I did a number of times this season. The public scouting reports on him uniformly call his effort and desire into question.

Bol Bol has two red flags -- physical health in the wake of his foot injury and what is widely reported as far too frequent lack of effort or desire.

Kevin Porter has a world of talent and could be the most talented wing in the draft after Barrett, but the reports on him are troublesome. So far, I haven't seen him play beyond some highlight footage and I'd still like to know more. So maybe he's salvageable and worth taking a gamble on. I currently have him on my stay-away list, but I'm open to taking him off the list depending on further information. In contrast, there is nothing I can envision that would cause me to take Bol Bol or Reddish off my stay-away list. It will be a real test for the Wolves this June, because I anticipate Bol Bol and Reddish being available when the Wolves are on the clock at #10 or 11.

I'm still not sure what to make of Langford. His 3-point shooting was terrible at 27% but he had a broken finger on his shooting hand most of the season so that's a mitigating factor. I've read scouting reports that he disappears from games, sometimes looks disengaged and doesn't want the ball. But I'd like to know more. Of all the wings, I think he's the best at attacking and scoring off the dribble. He handles the ball like a yo-yo on a string with excellent quickness, great change of direction and terrific explosion off the floor. His stats show him to be an excellent finisher. So I don't have him on my stay-away list yet with Bol Bol, Reddish and Porter.

THE HIGH FLOOR 4 - Hunter, Hachimura, Culver & Alexander-Walker

There are some nice high-floor prospects with limited upside outside my top 4, including Hunter, Hachimura, Culver and Alexander-Walker. I wouldn't consider Hunter. He looks like the only top PF prospect who can become a legitimate stretch 4 in the NBA. But his paltry rebounding numbers (5 per game in 32.5 MPG) tell me to stay away. A prospect's rebounding stats are highly indicative of what to expect from him in the NBA, except that the numbers end up slightly lower. You just can't have a PF on the floor in the NBA who doesn't rebound well, especially when you don't get much rebounding from you wings (Wiggins) and PGs. Hachimura isn't must better at 6.5 boards per game and he doesn't have Hunter's defensive or 3-point talent. I like Culver. He's put up good college numbers, but he doesn't seem to have the quickness or athleticism to translate well to the NBA. He doesn't have a particularly quick first step or a good change of direction and his handle is a bit loose. I actually think Alexander-Walker has a better upside than Culver, but otherwise I see the two as similar players who will likely be solid NBA players but never all star caliber.


THE HIGH CEILING SLEEPER 4 -- Bassey, Clarke, Okpala & Ponds

So far in my review, the players outside the top 4 with the the biggest upsides and no serious red flags yet revealed are the following in no particular order:

1. Bassey. His 10 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in 31 minutes per game as a freshman are particularly impressive and bode well for the next level. I also like his 62.7% FG shooting and 77% free throw shooting. He's long and athletic. I can see him being a big-time rebounder and very good shot-blocker with a reliable inside shot at the next level. And I can see him extending his range and eventually hitting corner threes in the NBA. I see a potential future all-star in Bassey.

2. Brandon Clarke. He's the best shot-blocker in college basketball with 3.2 in only 28 minutes per game. He also pulled down 8.6 rebounds per game and hit 68.7% of his field goal attempts. He's a bit older than Bass as a Junior, but I see him as a late bloomer who benefitted from the move to Gonzaga. I've read reports indicating that he's fixed his shooting mechanics and had the potential to be good perimeter shooter. I've also read that he has a great worth ethic and is very coachable. I'm a bit out on a limb, but I'd say he's another potential NBA all star, although I wouldn't bet a lot on it. The point is that he has very impressive upside. He reminds me of John Collins, except that he's a better shot-blocker than Collins.

3. Okpala. His combination of length and athleticism is intriguing. I've also been impressed by his ball-handling in the highlight footage I've seen. I didn't expect someone that long to be that adept with the ball. He's quick and agile with the ability to get to the rim. His stats are impressive in the areas you'd want to see impressive stats from a wing - 16.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 46.3% FG shooting and nearly 37% 3-point shooting. I'd a bit concerned by his 67% free throw shooting, but I like that he got to the line a lot with 6 attempts per game. I have more confidence in Culver and Alexander-Walker becoming good NBA players. But I see more upside in Okpala and can envision him becoming an all star caliber player at the next level.

4. Shamorie Ponds. I know I'm way out on a limb with this guy on my high-ceiling sleeper list. All the mock drafts and ratings I've seen have him getting drafted in the second round. But his stats can't be overlooked. He averaged 19.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists and a really impressive 2.6 steals per game. He also averaged 40% from behind the arc on 5.3 attempts per game. When looking for high upside, I look for special physical quality like freakish athleticism or freakish length. But I also look for a core stat that jumps off the page. Ponds' 2.6 steals per game is the sort of stat that jumps off the page. It tells me he's an elite disruptive defender and that he's lightning quick. Combined with nearly 20 points per game, I see an underrated player who could turn out to be a really good NBA player. I know he's a junior, but I'm still impressed. Hopefully, he'll still be available when the Wolves are making their second-round pick at #43.

THE MOST INTRIGUING QUESTION MARK -- Coby White

I'm not quite sure what to think of him. I'm troubled by his low 42.3% FG shooting and uninspiring 35% 3-point shooting from behind the college arc. His rebounding, assist and steal numbers are mediocre for his position at the college level. He's definitely a scorer, putting up 16.1 points per game in 28.5 minutes per game. He has a quick release on his jumper, which is good, but he also has a troublesome low release point on his jumper. He seems like a good ball handler, but seems to have an unduly high dribble that might prove problematic in the NBA. He's quick, but doesn't appear to have much spring off the floor. He's still young and I love his high revving motor. Most mocks seem to have White going to the Wolves at #10. I'm not sure yet whether that would be a good or bad thing.

This is where I hope Rosas makes a difference. But for starters, he had better improve the Wolves scouting department in the next couple weeks. I what we've heard about alignment and philosophy. But at the end of the day, it's about the people doing the analysis and making the recommendations as well as the people making the final decisions. Organizations are only as good as the people working for them. And in the end, success in the NBA turns on scouts and front office executives being good at evaluating players more than it does on philosophy, alignment or any other corporate buzz words you can come up with.

So let the thoughts flow on draft prospects the Wolves should consider - whether we're lucky enough to jump into the top 4 or end up in the more likely 10-12 range.

[Monster]

Fun write up. I'm a bit intrigued by Ponds as well. If you haven't yet you should look up some of Sam Vecenie's draft stuff on the athletic. Early in this article below I thought it had an interesting viewpoint from some league executives on how they view this draft. It really reminded me of the 2013 draft. It turns out there were some pretty damn good players from that year.

https://theathletic.com/951461/2019/04/30/vecenie-2019-nba-mock-draft-3-0-post-early-entry-deadline-edition/

Lip you may want to review some of your stats. BB reference has Coby White averaging over 16ppg. Maybe you accidentally looked at the strength of schedule instead...you wouldn't be the first one to do it...raises hand. lol

[Lipoli390]

OK. We now know we have the 11th pick in shallow draft. In true Timberwolves fashion we not only failed to move up in the draft, but actually moved down a spot. And of course it was a conference rival, the Lakers, who leapfrogged us to snag the 4th pick.

I think the best move for the Wolves now is to trade down from 11 in exchange for Boston's #14 and 20 picks or the Net's #17 and 27 picks. Of course, getting either deal assumes there is someone at #11 who either the Celtics or Nets covet. As for me, I don't see any material difference between those likely to be available at #11 versus those likely to be available 14-27.

ESPN's updated mock has the Wolves taking Brandon Clarke at #11. Having listed him as one of my 4 high ceiling sleepers, I'd be happy with that pick. But the whole situation is pretty depressing. You'd think this franchise could get lucky just once and move up in the draft. Alas, here we are.

[WildWolf2813]

I'm guessing the pick will either be Doumbouya or Clarke. Clarke is very short sighted because he's a win now guy. Doumbouya is pretty much a litmus test for Rosas to see if this team can develop a raw player with talent.

[Monster]

OK. We now know we have the 11th pick in shallow draft. In true Timberwolves fashion we not only failed to move up in the draft, but actually moved down a spot. And of course it was a conference rival, the Lakers, who leapfrogged us to snag the 4th pick.

I think the best move for the Wolves now is to trade down from 11 in exchange for Boston's #14 and 20 picks or the Net's #17 and 27 picks. Of course, getting either deal assumes there is someone at #11 who either the Celtics or Nets covet. As for me, I don't see any material difference between those likely to be available at #11 versus those likely to be available 14-27.

ESPN's updated mock has the Wolves taking Brandon Clarke at #11. Having listed him as one of my 4 high ceiling sleepers, I'd be happy with that pick. But the whole situation is pretty depressing. You'd think this franchise could get lucky just once and move up in the draft. Alas, here we are.

FWIW at least one of Rosas's media appearances last weeks he talked about being aggressive moving up in the draft. I'd be open to the trade down thing but I need to see a bit more how things play out first after the combine etc. There might be a guy worth staying there for. I've posted it before but you go back through the recent drafts and look at who was picked at #11 or a couple picks later...in the 2019 draft there will be a pretty good player available with our pick it's whether we are smart enough to take them.

[crazy-canuck [enjin:18955461]]

If we stay, I think he will target a defensive oriented big to help kat, someone who doesnt need the ball and will play long.


Im thinking

Clarke
Hayes
Bruno

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

The lottery essentially solidified who I'll be hoping the Wolves select this summer. I actually view this as a pretty solid class with a handful of players I'd be happy with at 11, but give me Tyler Herro as my primary choice.

As for a defensive-minded big to help Towns down low, we are more likely to find a mid-level veteran in free agency that can assist.

[crazy-canuck [enjin:18955461]]

The lottery essentially solidified who I'll be hoping the Wolves select this summer. I actually view this as a pretty solid class with a handful of players I'd be happy with at 11, but give me Tyler Herro as my primary choice.

As for a defensive-minded big to help Towns down low, we are more likely to find a mid-level veteran in free agency that can assist.

Why Herro?

Just for fit (because we need shooting) or is he the bpa on your board?

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

The lottery essentially solidified who I'll be hoping the Wolves select this summer. I actually view this as a pretty solid class with a handful of players I'd be happy with at 11, but give me Tyler Herro as my primary choice.

As for a defensive-minded big to help Towns down low, we are more likely to find a mid-level veteran in free agency that can assist.

Why Herro?

Just for fit (because we need shooting) or is he the bpa on your board?

Not to take the easy way out, but the answer to your question is both.

Minnesota needs help in the backcourt in the worst way, especially in regards to three-point shooting. Management neglected to select Jamal Murray or Buddy Hield several years ago, which turned out to be a colossal mistake. Shortly after, the team's best three-point shooter and incumbent high-potential SG prospect was shipped out in a calculated move for an All-NBA wing. The position remains unaccounted for and there really are no exciting/realistic moves on the trade front or in free agency for this team in order to solve it. So, short answer, yes, the fit and need is unequivocally there. It seems that SG has been an issue for this franchise for the last 20 years minus some solid seasons from Kevin Martin.

To answer your secondary question, I think it's likely that Herro will be the best player available when it's our time to pick, if he's not selected already. Right now, it seems that I value him more than mainstream media pundits, which is fine. Herro didn't necessarily have a fantastic freshman season like that of his highly-touted peers (Zion, RJ) and you could even argue that his year at Kentucky was disappointing given the hype. However, this is one of those cases where the player's stats are good (not great), but the player's individual skills are even better. Herro could quite easily be the best pure shooter in this draft and yet he shot 35% from three last year. At a glance, it'd be reasonable to write him off.

The numbers are what they are, but if you study his film you'll see that his shot selection, shot preparation, release, and follow through are picture perfect -- and repeatable. He was elite [amongst NCAA players] in catch-and-shoot threes last year and he secretly converts a high clip of his shot attempts at the rim. He's adept with both hands and his touch is evident when he gets in the paint.

He's an improving ball-handler and facilitator, but some part of his game was restricted at Kentucky -- similar to Devin Booker and Jamal Murray. He's better than advertised as a creator is what I'm getting at.

I think once teams get to see more of him they're going to fall in love with his game. His jumper is sweet. His basketball IQ is refreshing. I think he'll be one of the prospects that 'all of a sudden' rise up the draft boards quickly.

[KG4Ever]

Pick 11:


2018 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2017 Malik Monk, Kentucky - Charlotte Hornets
2016 Domantas Sabonis, Gonzaga - Orlando Magic
2015 Myles Turner, Texas - Indiana Pacers
2014 Doug McDermott, Creighton - Chicago Bulls
2013 Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse - Philadelphia 76ers
2012 Meyers Leonard, Illinois - Portland Trail Blazers
2011 Klay Thompson, Washington State - Golden State Warriors
2010 Cole Aldrich, Kansas - New Orleans Hornets (Draft rights traded to OKC Thunder
2009 Terrence Williams, Louisville - New Jersey Nets
2008 Jerryd Bayless, Arizona - Indiana Pacers
2007 Acie Law IV, Texas A&M - Atlanta Hawks
2006 J.J. Redick, Duke - Orlando Magic
2005 Fran Vazquez, Spain - Orlando Magic
2004 Andris Biedrins, BK Skonto Riga (Latvia) - Golden State Warriors
2003 Mickael Pietrus, France - Golden State Warriors
2002 Jared Jeffries, Indiana - Washington Wizards
2001 Kedrick Brown, Okaloosa-Walton CC (Fla.) - Boston Celtics
2000 Jerome Moiso, UCLA - Boston Celtics
1999 Trajan Langdon, Duke - Cleveland Cavaliers
1998 Bonzi Wells, Ball State - Detroit Pistons
1997 Olivier Saint-Jean, San Jose State - Sacramento Kings
1996 Todd Fuller, North Carolina State - Golden State Warriors
1995 Gary Trent, Ohio - Milwaukee Bucks (Draft rights traded to Portland Trail Blazers)
1994 Carlos Rogers, Tennessee State - Seattle Supersonics
1993 Allan Houston, Tennessee - Detroit Pistons
1992 Robert Horry, Alabama - Houston Rockets
1991 Terrell Brandon, Oregon - Cleveland Cavaliers
1990 Tyrone Hill, Xavier - Golden State Warriors
1989 Nick Anderson, Illinois - Orlando Magic
1988 Will Perdue, Vanderbilt - Chicago Bulls
1987 Reggie Miller, UCLA - Indiana Pacers
1986 John Salley, Georgia Tech - Detroit Pistons
1985 Keith Lee, Memphis State - Chicago Bulls (Draft rights traded to Cleveland Cavaliers)
1984 Kevin Willis, Michigan State - Atlanta Hawks
1983 Derek Harper, Illinois - Dallas Mavericks
1982 Lafayette Lever, Arizona State - Portland Trail Blazers
1981 Frank Johnson, Wake Forest - Washington Bullets
1980 Kiki Vandeweghe, UCLA - Dallas Mavericks