Timberwolves Draft Prospect Analysis Thread

[thedoper]

Are they ever right when they say a draft is 3 or 4 deep? I mean are they ever right about the 3 or 4? I think Zion is a surefire star barring injury. But after that I'm certain there is going to be someone who comes out of nowhere to be a great NBA player.

Every year they say there's a huge dropoff after a certain number and every year they are wrong. Remember the two deep Kyrie/Derrick Williams draft? It still hurts.

This is good perspective. That Kyrie/Williams draft was supposed to be the absolute worst. Some guys drafted after them?

Kanter
Thompson
Valanciunus
Kemba
Klay
Morris brothers
Kawhi
Vucevic
Tobias Harris
Faried
Mirotic
Reggie Jackson
Jimmy Butler

Not bad for a "garbage" draft.

Thanks for that list. At least two HOFers, multiple all stars and solid starters and role players. And we got none of them with the #2 pick. Insane.

[kekgeek]

Are they ever right when they say a draft is 3 or 4 deep? I mean are they ever right about the 3 or 4? I think Zion is a surefire star barring injury. But after that I'm certain there is going to be someone who comes out of nowhere to be a great NBA player.

Every year they say there's a huge dropoff after a certain number and every year they are wrong. Remember the two deep Kyrie/Derrick Williams draft? It still hurts.

This is good perspective. That Kyrie/Williams draft was supposed to be the absolute worst. Some guys drafted after them?

Kanter
Thompson
Valanciunus
Kemba
Klay
Morris brothers
Kawhi
Vucevic
Tobias Harris
Faried
Mirotic
Reggie Jackson
Jimmy Butler

Not bad for a "garbage" draft.

Thanks for that list. At least two HOFers, multiple all stars and solid starters and role players. And we got none of them with the #2 pick. Insane.

Yep can more than likely find very good players later in the draft. Like abe though I feel like this draft is going to be a crapshoot where players go. I think a lot of fan bases will be mad on draft night because feel like their team reached. Just think after the top 3 this is one of the most different valued drafts in recent memories. Where some people might have a player like Colby White 4th best prospect and some people might have him in the 20s like Kevin O'Connor

[Monster]

Are they ever right when they say a draft is 3 or 4 deep? I mean are they ever right about the 3 or 4? I think Zion is a surefire star barring injury. But after that I'm certain there is going to be someone who comes out of nowhere to be a great NBA player.

Every year they say there's a huge dropoff after a certain number and every year they are wrong. Remember the two deep Kyrie/Derrick Williams draft? It still hurts.

This is good perspective. That Kyrie/Williams draft was supposed to be the absolute worst. Some guys drafted after them?

Kanter
Thompson
Valanciunus
Kemba
Klay
Morris brothers
Kawhi
Vucevic
Tobias Harris
Faried
Mirotic
Reggie Jackson
Jimmy Butler

Not bad for a "garbage" draft.

Thanks for that list. At least two HOFers, multiple all stars and solid starters and role players. And we got none of them with the #2 pick. Insane.

Yep can more than likely find very good players later in the draft. Like abe though I feel like this draft is going to be a crapshoot where players go. I think a lot of fan bases will be mad on draft night because feel like their team reached. Just think after the top 3 this is one of the most different valued drafts in recent memories. Where some people might have a player like Colby White 4th best prospect and some people might have him in the 20s like Kevin O'Connor

The most insane thing about Williams at #2 was he was supposed to the #2 guy. Not EVERYONE had him there but it's one thing Kahn didn't exactly screw up really. Q was about as low as anyone on this forum and he still though he was gonna be a really good role player. Out of the league in a few years? What?!? That is kinda crazy.

I'm kinda hoping Bol Bol is wildly impressive in workouts (saw some video today and the guy looks like a terrific shooter) and he has some team take him higher than expected and someone a bit more appealing drops to us at #11. IF...........Kevin Porter hits on his potential he could be a guy you look back on and wonder how he dropped so far.

I wish Q was here for some draft tales I like his BS meter (Derrick williams) bit I'm guessing he is tired of more prospects and I'm guessing his lack of input may reflect someone on how he feels about the draft. Or maybe he is busy. Sigh...maybe if I mention Jeff Adrian and Robbie Hummel in this post he will appear! :)

[KG4Ever]

We have sucked as a franchise because we never develop second rounders and unsigned free agents. Look at Raptors rotation players:
Gasol-2nd Round
Danny Green-2nd Round
Kyle Lowry-Late 1st (24)
Pablo Siakam-Late 1st (27)
Serge Ibaka-late 1st (24)
Kawai-15th
Vanvleet-unsigned free agent
Norman Powell-2nd Round

Not a single lottery pick and Toronto is champs. Only Kawhi was even a mid first rounder. I hope our new guys can develop talent. That's what we'll need to do if we ever want to contend for a title.

[kekgeek]

We have sucked as a franchise because we never develop second rounders and unsigned free agents. Look at Raptors rotation players:
Gasol-2nd Round
Danny Green-2nd Round
Kyle Lowry-Late 1st (24)
Pablo Siakam-Late 1st (27)
Serge Ibaka-late 1st (24)
Kawai-15th
Vanvleet-unsigned free agent
Norman Powell-2nd Round

Not a single lottery pick and Toronto is champs. Only Kawhi was even a mid first rounder. I hope our new guys can develop talent. That's what we'll need to do if we ever want to contend for a title.

I mean how many guys did they really develop though.

Gasol: no
Green: no
Lowry: sort of but took off with Adelman
Siakam: yes
Ibaka: no
Kawhi: no
FVV: Yep
Powell: yep

[AbeVigodaLive]

Derrick Williams was expected to go #2. Unfortunately, he wasn't as good as the other guy already here who played his position.

[crazy-canuck [enjin:18955461]]

https://www.thestepien.com/2019/06/13/uniqueness-brandon-clarke/

Long, but really good detailed look at Clarke. They also mention a couple of teams where he woukd exceed value if selected by them.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Are they ever right when they say a draft is 3 or 4 deep? I mean are they ever right about the 3 or 4? I think Zion is a surefire star barring injury. But after that I'm certain there is going to be someone who comes out of nowhere to be a great NBA player.

Every year they say there's a huge dropoff after a certain number and every year they are wrong. Remember the two deep Kyrie/Derrick Williams draft? It still hurts.

Yep, I've made this exact point several times on this forum while using the 2011 and 2013 draft classes as recent examples. Why do casual fans, and even some real NBA lifers, fall into that trap? It boggles my mind. There are usually the prospects at the top that are day-one stars (LeBron James, Blake Griffin, Anthony Davis, Zion Williamson, etc.), and then there are the prospects that show star level abilities or skills, but have further growth needed in order to become that star player. Those prospects make up just about 90% of the All-Stars this league has ever seen.

The difficulty is plucking those prospects with elite tools and being able to develop them into players that reach their maximum potential, but make no mistake about it, there will be teams that "find" stars. It happens every year and it isn't by mistake. This year is no different. There are about 15-20 guys in this class that possess one or two legitimate star-like qualities. An even smaller fraction of that will be able to maximize their potential and become All-Stars.

[KG4Ever]

We have sucked as a franchise because we never develop second rounders and unsigned free agents. Look at Raptors rotation players:
Gasol-2nd Round
Danny Green-2nd Round
Kyle Lowry-Late 1st (24)
Pablo Siakam-Late 1st (27)
Serge Ibaka-late 1st (24)
Kawai-15th
Vanvleet-unsigned free agent
Norman Powell-2nd Round

Not a single lottery pick and Toronto is champs. Only Kawhi was even a mid first rounder. I hope our new guys can develop talent. That's what we'll need to do if we ever want to contend for a title.

I mean how many guys did they really develop though.

Gasol: no
Green: no
Lowry: sort of but took off with Adelman
Siakam: yes
Ibaka: no
Kawhi: no
FVV: Yep
Powell: yep

I think you missed my main point. I am saying that a team of non-lottery picks can win a title, not that Toronto is super amazing at developing talent (although they are pretty good at it, but not to the Spurs level). To me it was just a fun observation I wanted to share as I don't know any other championship teams that didn't have a single lottery pick in their rotation. I didn't see this article until after posting, but it made the same point I did (https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2019/5/30/18642766/raptors-trade-draft-history-masai-ujiri-nba-finals-2019-kawhi-leonard-demar-derozan)

[Lipoli390]

We have sucked as a franchise because we never develop second rounders and unsigned free agents. Look at Raptors rotation players:
Gasol-2nd Round
Danny Green-2nd Round
Kyle Lowry-Late 1st (24)
Pablo Siakam-Late 1st (27)
Serge Ibaka-late 1st (24)
Kawai-15th
Vanvleet-unsigned free agent
Norman Powell-2nd Round

Not a single lottery pick and Toronto is champs. Only Kawhi was even a mid first rounder. I hope our new guys can develop talent. That's what we'll need to do if we ever want to contend for a title.

I mean how many guys did they really develop though.

Gasol: no
Green: no
Lowry: sort of but took off with Adelman
Siakam: yes
Ibaka: no
Kawhi: no
FVV: Yep
Powell: yep

I think you missed my main point. I am saying that a team of non-lottery picks can win a title, not that Toronto is super amazing at developing talent (although they are pretty good at it, but not to the Spurs level). To me it was just a fun observation I wanted to share as I don't know any other championship teams that didn't have a single lottery pick in their rotation. I didn't see this article until after posting, but it made the same point I did (https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2019/5/30/18642766/raptors-trade-draft-history-masai-ujiri-nba-finals-2019-kawhi-leonard-demar-derozan)

KG4ever - I understood you point and agree. It's definitely an interesting observation. As it turns out, Kawhi should have been the top pick in his draft class instead of #15. And Lowry should have been a top 10 pick (maybe top 5) rather than #24. In Kawhi's case, it was apparent almost immediately that he should have been a high lottery pick. In Lowry's case, it took until his 5th season before it was apparent that he was an all star caliber player who should have been a top 10 pick in his draft class.

The Raptors are rare in winning an NBA championship without any lottery picks on their roster. But there have been a number of other championship teams (or teams who made it to NBA finals) who were built in whole or part around star players who were lottery picks outside the top 5, including the following:

WARRIORS
Steph Curry - #7
Klay Thompson - #11
Draymond Green - #35
Iggy - #9

MAVS
Dirk Nowitzki - #9

JAZZ (80s/90s)
Karl Malone #13
John Stockton #16

ROCKETS (90s)
Clyde Drexler #14 (key to one of Houston's two championships with Hakeem)

SPURS
Tony Parker #28
Manu Ginobili #57
Kobe Bryant #13
Kawhi #15

Then there are a number of contenders today like Portland and Denver who are build around allstars drafted outside the top 3. Lillard #6, McCollum #10, Jamal Murray #7, Jokic #41.

Obviously, I'd rather have a top 5 pick in any draft, the higher the better. But good organizations often identify and draft players outside the top 5 (even outside the top10) who become allstars or stars around whom they build championship contenders. It's about time the Wolves did the same.