Timberwolves Draft Prospect Analysis Thread

[Duke13]

I'd be very happy with Herro at 11. I'd be very aggressive in moving up using Saric and/or RoCo for teams who are in win now mode.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

Pick 11:


2018 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2017 Malik Monk, Kentucky - Charlotte Hornets
2016 Domantas Sabonis, Gonzaga - Orlando Magic
2015 Myles Turner, Texas - Indiana Pacers
2014 Doug McDermott, Creighton - Chicago Bulls
2013 Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse - Philadelphia 76ers
2012 Meyers Leonard, Illinois - Portland Trail Blazers
2011 Klay Thompson, Washington State - Golden State Warriors
2010 Cole Aldrich, Kansas - New Orleans Hornets (Draft rights traded to OKC Thunder
2009 Terrence Williams, Louisville - New Jersey Nets
2008 Jerryd Bayless, Arizona - Indiana Pacers
2007 Acie Law IV, Texas A&M - Atlanta Hawks
2006 J.J. Redick, Duke - Orlando Magic
2005 Fran Vazquez, Spain - Orlando Magic
2004 Andris Biedrins, BK Skonto Riga (Latvia) - Golden State Warriors
2003 Mickael Pietrus, France - Golden State Warriors
2002 Jared Jeffries, Indiana - Washington Wizards
2001 Kedrick Brown, Okaloosa-Walton CC (Fla.) - Boston Celtics
2000 Jerome Moiso, UCLA - Boston Celtics
1999 Trajan Langdon, Duke - Cleveland Cavaliers
1998 Bonzi Wells, Ball State - Detroit Pistons
1997 Olivier Saint-Jean, San Jose State - Sacramento Kings
1996 Todd Fuller, North Carolina State - Golden State Warriors
1995 Gary Trent, Ohio - Milwaukee Bucks (Draft rights traded to Portland Trail Blazers)
1994 Carlos Rogers, Tennessee State - Seattle Supersonics
1993 Allan Houston, Tennessee - Detroit Pistons
1992 Robert Horry, Alabama - Houston Rockets
1991 Terrell Brandon, Oregon - Cleveland Cavaliers
1990 Tyrone Hill, Xavier - Golden State Warriors
1989 Nick Anderson, Illinois - Orlando Magic
1988 Will Perdue, Vanderbilt - Chicago Bulls
1987 Reggie Miller, UCLA - Indiana Pacers
1986 John Salley, Georgia Tech - Detroit Pistons
1985 Keith Lee, Memphis State - Chicago Bulls (Draft rights traded to Cleveland Cavaliers)
1984 Kevin Willis, Michigan State - Atlanta Hawks
1983 Derek Harper, Illinois - Dallas Mavericks
1982 Lafayette Lever, Arizona State - Portland Trail Blazers
1981 Frank Johnson, Wake Forest - Washington Bullets
1980 Kiki Vandeweghe, UCLA - Dallas Mavericks

That's actually a pretty good list of players

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Yeah, trading Saric during the draft is an intriguing idea -- and that's coming from someone who really values him. I think if you could get a first-round pick anywhere from 10-20 you probably pull the trigger. Again, I see this class differently than others, which is certain to influence one's opinion on this.

If Jaxson Hayes were to slide out of the top-12 for whatever reason, that would be an ideal target.

[Lipoli390]

The lottery essentially solidified who I'll be hoping the Wolves select this summer. I actually view this as a pretty solid class with a handful of players I'd be happy with at 11, but give me Tyler Herro as my primary choice.

As for a defensive-minded big to help Towns down low, we are more likely to find a mid-level veteran in free agency that can assist.

Why Herro?

Just for fit (because we need shooting) or is he the bpa on your board?

Not to take the easy way out, but the answer to your question is both.

Minnesota needs help in the backcourt in the worst way, especially in regards to three-point shooting. Management neglected to select Jamal Murray or Buddy Hield several years ago, which turned out to be a colossal mistake. Shortly after, the team's best three-point shooter and incumbent high-potential SG prospect was shipped out in a calculated move for an All-NBA wing. The position remains unaccounted for and there really are no exciting/realistic moves on the trade front or in free agency for this team in order to solve it. So, short answer, yes, the fit and need is unequivocally there. It seems that SG has been an issue for this franchise for the last 20 years minus some solid seasons from Kevin Martin.

To answer your secondary question, I think it's likely that Herro will be the best player available when it's our time to pick, if he's not selected already. Right now, it seems that I value him more than mainstream media pundits, which is fine. Herro didn't necessarily have a fantastic freshman season like that of his highly-touted peers (Zion, RJ) and you could even argue that his year at Kentucky was disappointing given the hype. However, this is one of those cases where the player's stats are good (not great), but the player's individual skills are even better. Herro could quite easily be the best pure shooter in this draft and yet he shot 35% from three last year. At a glance, it'd be reasonable to write him off.

The numbers are what they are, but if you study his film you'll see that his shot selection, shot preparation, release, and follow through are picture perfect -- and repeatable. He was elite [amongst NCAA players] in catch-and-shoot threes last year and he secretly converts a high clip of his shot attempts at the rim. He's adept with both hands and his touch is evident when he gets in the paint.

He's an improving ball-handler and facilitator, but some part of his game was restricted at Kentucky -- similar to Devin Booker and Jamal Murray. He's better than advertised as a creator is what I'm getting at.

I think once teams get to see more of him they're going to fall in love with his game. His jumper is sweet. His basketball IQ is refreshing. I think he'll be one of the prospects that 'all of a sudden' rise up the draft boards quickly.

`

The lottery essentially solidified who I'll be hoping the Wolves select this summer. I actually view this as a pretty solid class with a handful of players I'd be happy with at 11, but give me Tyler Herro as my primary choice.

As for a defensive-minded big to help Towns down low, we are more likely to find a mid-level veteran in free agency that can assist.

Why Herro?

Just for fit (because we need shooting) or is he the bpa on your board?

Not to take the easy way out, but the answer to your question is both.

Minnesota needs help in the backcourt in the worst way, especially in regards to three-point shooting. Management neglected to select Jamal Murray or Buddy Hield several years ago, which turned out to be a colossal mistake. Shortly after, the team's best three-point shooter and incumbent high-potential SG prospect was shipped out in a calculated move for an All-NBA wing. The position remains unaccounted for and there really are no exciting/realistic moves on the trade front or in free agency for this team in order to solve it. So, short answer, yes, the fit and need is unequivocally there. It seems that SG has been an issue for this franchise for the last 20 years minus some solid seasons from Kevin Martin.

To answer your secondary question, I think it's likely that Herro will be the best player available when it's our time to pick, if he's not selected already. Right now, it seems that I value him more than mainstream media pundits, which is fine. Herro didn't necessarily have a fantastic freshman season like that of his highly-touted peers (Zion, RJ) and you could even argue that his year at Kentucky was disappointing given the hype. However, this is one of those cases where the player's stats are good (not great), but the player's individual skills are even better. Herro could quite easily be the best pure shooter in this draft and yet he shot 35% from three last year. At a glance, it'd be reasonable to write him off.

The numbers are what they are, but if you study his film you'll see that his shot selection, shot preparation, release, and follow through are picture perfect -- and repeatable. He was elite [amongst NCAA players] in catch-and-shoot threes last year and he secretly converts a high clip of his shot attempts at the rim. He's adept with both hands and his touch is evident when he gets in the paint.

He's an improving ball-handler and facilitator, but some part of his game was restricted at Kentucky -- similar to Devin Booker and Jamal Murray. He's better than advertised as a creator is what I'm getting at.

I think once teams get to see more of him they're going to fall in love with his game. His jumper is sweet. His basketball IQ is refreshing. I think he'll be one of the prospects that 'all of a sudden' rise up the draft boards quickly.

Cam - Thanks for the thorough and thoughtful analysis on Herro. I haven't been very high on him, but he should definitely be considered as a possibility at #11. I wasn't very impressed by him in the tournament. His handle is decent, but not particularly good and he had a hard time getting it the bucket. If 3-point shooting is his calling card, I have a hard time getting past his 35.5% college percentage on relatively low volume of 4.2 3-point attempts per game. Compare that stat to JJ Reddick, a great 3-point shooter who was selected #11. He hit 40% of his threes on around 8 attempts per game his freshman season. Same for Steph Curry. Jamal Murray hit nearly 41% of his threes on 7.7 attempts as a freshman. Buddy Hield actually had a terrible 3-point percentage his freshman year, but in his final college season he hit 45.7% of his threes on 8.7 attempts.

Like most, I look at video, physical attributes and form. But at the end of the day, it's about performance and I'm skeptical of a prospect whose numbers were mediocre in the very area that is viewed as his calling card. A 35.5% three point percentage from behind the college arc gives me pause when it comes to drafting Herro, whose selling point is presumably his 3-point shooting.

[Lipoli390]

I'd be very happy with Herro at 11. I'd be very aggressive in moving up using Saric and/or RoCo for teams who are in win now mode.

Duke - I agree with you. I'd be aggressive about moving up, moving down or acquiring another 1st round pick. Like you, Saric and/or RoCo would be the assets I'd use for moving up.

There's no way the Pelicans or Grizzlies would trade down since both will be get potential franchise players in Zion and Morant. I suppose the Knicks might be interested in moving down, depending on how much they value Barrett and on whether they think they can acquire a marque free agent. But in the end, the only team in the top 4 I can see having any interest trading down with us would be the Lakers. They're the only top 4 team that isn't in rebuild mold. They need to win sooner rather than later with an impatient and aging star named LeBron. I could see the Lakers having a strong interest in adding RoCo and Saric. The question for the Wolves would be whether there's a player available at #4 worth going after at the expense of RoCo and Saric. Assuming Zion, Morant and Barrett are taken by then, I'm not sure there is such a player. Darius Garland is the player who comes to mind. RoCo, Saric and our #11 pick for Garland? I'm not sure about that.

[Lipoli390]

I'm convinced that Cam Reddish will be available at #11. I wouldn't even consider taking him there. However, there's an argument for taking him if he falls that far based on his upside. If he's available at #11 should the Wolves take him or leave him?

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I'm convinced that Cam Reddish will be available at #11. I wouldn't even consider taking him there. However, there's an argument for taking him if he falls that far based on his upside. If he's available at #11 should the Wolves take him or leave him?

It's a hard no for me.

[Monster]

I just listened to Jim Peterson on Paul Allen's show yesterday. There was some good stuff on there. I think some of what Jim said shapes how ai look at this draft and comment on some of the valid ideas brought up in the last few posts.

Jim brought up Wolves 3 point shooting and guard play. He brought up Anthony Peeler is the all-time leading wolves leader in 3 point makes with 406...let that sink in. It says 2 big things about the Wolves.

1. How little 3 point shooting this team has had I've the years.

2. The crazy amount of turnover on the this roster during the franchise history. Other than KG how many guys have played more than 4 seasons for this team?

Jim said it's an arms race and GS and Houston are the two top teams but look at Portland they have CJ and Lilliard. He brought up how we could have had CJ and Jamal Murray. He said this roster needs shooting and guard play. I know this team needs defense but damn 3 point shooting is pretty huge.

So having said that why would we be looking to trade 2 of the best volume 3 point shooters on the roster in Roco and Saric (Jim Peterson talked about Saric in this spot)? Roco is so valuable I'd have to get another asset back sending him to a team to move up. In addition I'm not even sure there is a guy I would move up into the top 3-5 to get because I like Garland but not a huge sample. Jim Peterson talked about his Dad who played in the NBA and he really likes Garland so...

As for Herro he is bigger than JJ reddick and likely considered a better defender than he was at the time. Can he shoot? The guy shot 53.5% from 2 and 93.5% from the FT line. I'll take my chances that his shooting part of his game translates. Let's see how he measures out. Plus he is from Milwaukee. :)

Ultimately I'm not saying just draft a shooter no matter what and if there is a better player that's a defensive big pick him but we have drafted defense over shooting a couple times now and that's not worked out well. In addition how many shooters did we pass on that weren't supposed to have the physical gifts to succeed? Jim Peterson says he knows Rosas knows this team needs shooting and who better to bring in than a guy that was with the organization that's started the arms race. Could a new coach (Fitch) be on their way too? Honestly I say draft some damn guards that are either REALLY dynamic with the ball in their hand or are good shooters or both. If you want a defensive big sign Noel or some other guy in FA. I see that spot being a lot either to fill via that route.

[Mr. Brightside [enjin:16464947]]

The lottery essentially solidified who I'll be hoping the Wolves select this summer. I actually view this as a pretty solid class with a handful of players I'd be happy with at 11, but give me Tyler Herro as my primary choice.

As for a defensive-minded big to help Towns down low, we are more likely to find a mid-level veteran in free agency that can assist.

Why Herro?

Just for fit (because we need shooting) or is he the bpa on your board?

Not to take the easy way out, but the answer to your question is both.

Minnesota needs help in the backcourt in the worst way, especially in regards to three-point shooting. Management neglected to select Jamal Murray or Buddy Hield several years ago, which turned out to be a colossal mistake. Shortly after, the team's best three-point shooter and incumbent high-potential SG prospect was shipped out in a calculated move for an All-NBA wing. The position remains unaccounted for and there really are no exciting/realistic moves on the trade front or in free agency for this team in order to solve it. So, short answer, yes, the fit and need is unequivocally there. It seems that SG has been an issue for this franchise for the last 20 years minus some solid seasons from Kevin Martin.

To answer your secondary question, I think it's likely that Herro will be the best player available when it's our time to pick, if he's not selected already. Right now, it seems that I value him more than mainstream media pundits, which is fine. Herro didn't necessarily have a fantastic freshman season like that of his highly-touted peers (Zion, RJ) and you could even argue that his year at Kentucky was disappointing given the hype. However, this is one of those cases where the player's stats are good (not great), but the player's individual skills are even better. Herro could quite easily be the best pure shooter in this draft and yet he shot 35% from three last year. At a glance, it'd be reasonable to write him off.

The numbers are what they are, but if you study his film you'll see that his shot selection, shot preparation, release, and follow through are picture perfect -- and repeatable. He was elite [amongst NCAA players] in catch-and-shoot threes last year and he secretly converts a high clip of his shot attempts at the rim. He's adept with both hands and his touch is evident when he gets in the paint.

He's an improving ball-handler and facilitator, but some part of his game was restricted at Kentucky -- similar to Devin Booker and Jamal Murray. He's better than advertised as a creator is what I'm getting at.

I think once teams get to see more of him they're going to fall in love with his game. His jumper is sweet. His basketball IQ is refreshing. I think he'll be one of the prospects that 'all of a sudden' rise up the draft boards quickly.

`

The lottery essentially solidified who I'll be hoping the Wolves select this summer. I actually view this as a pretty solid class with a handful of players I'd be happy with at 11, but give me Tyler Herro as my primary choice.

As for a defensive-minded big to help Towns down low, we are more likely to find a mid-level veteran in free agency that can assist.

Why Herro?

Just for fit (because we need shooting) or is he the bpa on your board?

Not to take the easy way out, but the answer to your question is both.

Minnesota needs help in the backcourt in the worst way, especially in regards to three-point shooting. Management neglected to select Jamal Murray or Buddy Hield several years ago, which turned out to be a colossal mistake. Shortly after, the team's best three-point shooter and incumbent high-potential SG prospect was shipped out in a calculated move for an All-NBA wing. The position remains unaccounted for and there really are no exciting/realistic moves on the trade front or in free agency for this team in order to solve it. So, short answer, yes, the fit and need is unequivocally there. It seems that SG has been an issue for this franchise for the last 20 years minus some solid seasons from Kevin Martin.

To answer your secondary question, I think it's likely that Herro will be the best player available when it's our time to pick, if he's not selected already. Right now, it seems that I value him more than mainstream media pundits, which is fine. Herro didn't necessarily have a fantastic freshman season like that of his highly-touted peers (Zion, RJ) and you could even argue that his year at Kentucky was disappointing given the hype. However, this is one of those cases where the player's stats are good (not great), but the player's individual skills are even better. Herro could quite easily be the best pure shooter in this draft and yet he shot 35% from three last year. At a glance, it'd be reasonable to write him off.

The numbers are what they are, but if you study his film you'll see that his shot selection, shot preparation, release, and follow through are picture perfect -- and repeatable. He was elite [amongst NCAA players] in catch-and-shoot threes last year and he secretly converts a high clip of his shot attempts at the rim. He's adept with both hands and his touch is evident when he gets in the paint.

He's an improving ball-handler and facilitator, but some part of his game was restricted at Kentucky -- similar to Devin Booker and Jamal Murray. He's better than advertised as a creator is what I'm getting at.

I think once teams get to see more of him they're going to fall in love with his game. His jumper is sweet. His basketball IQ is refreshing. I think he'll be one of the prospects that 'all of a sudden' rise up the draft boards quickly.

Cam - Thanks for the thorough and thoughtful analysis on Herro. I haven't been very high on him, but he should definitely be considered as a possibility at #11. I wasn't very impressed by him in the tournament. His handle is decent, but not particularly good and he had a hard time getting it the bucket. If 3-point shooting is his calling card, I have a hard time getting past his 35.5% college percentage on relatively low volume of 4.2 3-point attempts per game. Compare that stat to JJ Reddick, a great 3-point shooter who was selected #11. He hit 40% of his threes on around 8 attempts per game his freshman season. Same for Steph Curry. Jamal Murray hit nearly 41% of his threes on 7.7 attempts as a freshman. Buddy Hield actually had a terrible 3-point percentage his freshman year, but in his final college season he hit 45.7% of his threes on 8.7 attempts.

Like most, I look at video, physical attributes and form. But at the end of the day, it's about performance and I'm skeptical of a prospect whose numbers were mediocre in the very area that is viewed as his calling card. A 35.5% three point percentage from behind the college arc gives me pause when it comes to drafting Herro, whose selling point is presumably his 3-point shooting.

Lip, if you dig into Herro's shooting numbers a bit, they may tell a different story.

Although Herro shot 35.5% on the season, he shot 42.1% in conference games (18 games) on essentially the same volume. He also shot 98.3% from the line, missing only ONE free throw in conference play (58/59). So either Herro only gets up for bigger games or it just took him a little time to adjust to his role at Kentucky.

We've seen a trend with these Kentucky players recently, specifically the guards. It wouldn't shock me if Herro followed that same trend and became a much better pro than what he showed in the college game.

[thedoper]

I like that Herro has a nice shot but he looks slow even at the college level. I'm out on him as our pick as I think there's a large bust potential. Other pure shooters have neglected to make it in the NBA due to a lack of athleticism. I'd be worried about his potential there, especially when we don't have a great drive and kick pg to give him wide open shots. That being said he'll probably go to Houston and shoot 50% from 3.