monsterpile wrote:Just a bit over 2 weeks till the draft and is there anyone here absolutely pounding the table for one guy you wouldn't want to trade down and be devastated if we didn't get him? Maybe some people that really like Clarke. So why not trade down?What if other teams don't have a guy they want to trade up and get?
--Austin Ainge on impact of having three top-22 picks: "It really is evaluating a lot of the same group for all three picks, right? Not any of us can distinguish between 14 and 22 at this point, for the most part. It's a lot of the same guys for all of those picks and workouts."
This is precisely the reason someone like Boston likely won't trade their 2 picks for our 1. The consensus is that picks 10-20 are similar.
It all depends on who's available at #11 and whether one of those available players is someone the Celtics or Nets covet. Boston has picks #14, 20 and 22. The Nets have picks 17 and 27. I could see either team really wanting someone at #11 and swapping two picks to move up. I could see Boston trading pickles 20 and 22. But right now I think at least two of Boston's picks will end up going to the Pelicans in a deal for AD. I'd be happy with the Nets' two picks in exchange for our #11.
Here's a list of my top 10 first-round prospects for the Wolves among those with a good chance of being available at #11:
1. Cam Johnson. He reminds me of Klay Thompson. He's the best 3-point shooter in college basketball. He's very smooth and smart. Unlike Dylan Windler, Johnson is more than just a shooter. He's good with the ball and has a nice dribble penetration game. He's a good passer as well. It would appear that we could trade down for two 1st round picks and get Johnson. That's what I would do. Then I'd focus on drafting one of the bigs with the other 1st round pick.
2. Nic Claxton. Of all the bigs in the draft, he's the one who looks like he could be a star. He has terrific length for a PF with a 9'2" overhead reach. His length combines with the best vertical among the true bigs - (31.5" standing vertical and a 36.5" max). His combine testing didn't show him to be super fast or quick, but he looks really quick and supple on the court. He has advanced ball-handling skills for a young big. The concern I have with him is his shooting - only 46% from field and 64% from the line. Of course, that's a big reason he'll likely be available at #11 and possibly as low as 25. But I like his shooting form and he's shown he can hit from NBA 3-point range. Most of all, I love his talent and his motor. He might be worth the 11th pick based on his upside.
3. Kabengele or Bruno Fernando. I put these two together because I see them as very similar prospects. I'd like the Wolves to consider taking one of these if they trade down for two 1st round picks. Both remind me of Montrezl Harrell. They're almost identical to Montrezl in size and they play like him. Both would bring some real toughness to our front court. Although both are primarily low-post scorers and rebounders/shot-blockers, both have shown the ability to hit from behind the arc. Fernando strikes me as the better of the two right now. He's the best rebounder among the bigs, averaging 10.6 boards per game in only 30 minutes. He's also one of the most efficient scorers, hitting 60.7% of his FGs. He also blocked 2 shots per game.
4. Brandon Clarke. I still like him in spite of his reptilian arms. :) He was a prolific shot-blocker in college and a very efficient scorer. While lacking length, he's a tremendous athlete.
5. Seriously Doumbouya. I've bought into the hype. Seems to have a huge upside based on what I've ready. His video highlights were pretty impressive, but didn't blow me away. His Euro stats were underwhelming. But again, I bought into the hype.
6. KZ Okpala. I'm intrigued by a SF with an 8'10.5" over head reach and nearly 7'2 wingspan, especially when he put up really solid numbers as a sophomore, including nearly 17 points per game on 46.3% shooting including 36.8% from behind the arc. He also tested out as a very good athlete and he's shown nice ballhandling and penetration skills in the videos I've seen.
7. Nassir Little. He just barely made my list. I'm concerned about his lack of playing time. I'm not sure he's particularly good with the ball. But I love his motor, which he combines with terrific length (8'8.5" overhead reach and 7'1.25 wingspan) and very good athleticism (38.5" max vertical). His 4.6 rebounds per game in only 18 minutes pencils out to around 9 rebounds per 36 minutes. I see him as a terrific defender and rebounder as a SF at the next level. But I'm not sure he'll be much more than that, although he hit 48% of his 7.6 FG attempts per game. He's very young and would appear to have a lot of upside. So he might be worth the risk at #11.
8. Alexander-Walker. I thought his tournament play was underwhelming. But I've taken a fresh look at him and have him back on my 1st-round favorites list. His combine measurements were surprisingly long with an 8'6" overhead reach and 6'9.5 wingspan. I've always liked his regular season numbers, especially his 2 steals per game, 47% FG shooting and 37.4% 3-point shooting. I've been pouring over video of his play and the more I watch, the more I'm impressed by his playmaking ability. I see him becoming and NBA PG. Now that I know he has very good length for a wing, the though of him playing the point is even more exciting. He really sees the floor and has a nice feel for the game. He's also tough. He reminds me a bit of Jrue Holiday.
9. Romeo Langford. I struggled with whether to include him among my 1st-round favorites. His terrible 27% three-point percentage is troubling. And I'm concerned about reports that his motor isn't always running. But watching him play, he stands out from the pack in my view as the player on my list with the greatest potential. He has a tremendous fluidity to his game with long arms and elite athleticism. He looks like he could be a star. The fact that he played most of the season with a broken finger on his shooting hand mitigates his poor 3-point shooting to some extent. Moreover, the reviews I've read don't raise the same sort of red flag I see associated with Cam Reddish or Keven Porter Jr. And it's important to remember Langford was a freshman. So I have him on my list as a very high upside/low floor prospect.
10. J. Nowell. He's not projected to go in the first round. So I'm hoping he lasts until #43 for our 2nd round pick. I'm surprised he hasn't gotten much hype. His numbers as a Sophomore were terrific - hitting 50.2% of his 12.1 FG attempts per game and 44% of his threes. He has a solid wingspan for a SG at 6'7.25 and tested out really well athletically with a 32" standing vertical, a 38.5" max vertical and a 10.76 agility time. I don't think I'd take him in the 1st round, but I'd snag him at #43 and I'd consider buying a 2nd round pick slightly higher if possible to get him.
Here are some of the prospects I left off my list and why:
1. Cam Reddish. While most mock drafts have him gone before the 11th pick, I could see him falling to #11. But I wouldn't even consider drafting him. He's one giant red flag. It starts with the many reviews questioning his motor and even questioning is passion for the game. Then you look at his terrible scoring stats considering his tremendous physical gifts. 39% FG shooting? Yuck. His flag is more red than any flag I even saw associated with Wiggins.
2. Kevin Porter Jr. I absolutely love his talent. But there is too much smoke associated with his character to believe there isn't a fire there somewhere. I see another JR Rider in the making with him. I'll admit he could actually become a star. But he's a true boom/bust prospect and I'd put more money on bust than boom.
3. Tyler Herro. I can't get beyond his 6'3.25 wingspan. That just won't get it done defensively as an NBA SG, especially if you're not an elite athlete and Herro is definitely not an elite athlete. Watching him in the tournament and in video highlights, I'm not impressed by his ballhandling. In fact, NBAdraftnet rates his ballhandling at 7. For a small SG, that's a red flag in and of itself. His main selling point is his 3-point shooting, but his 35.5% 3-point percentage from behind the college arc is underwhelming. I get that his stellar free-throw percentage suggest that he could become an elite 3-point shooter. But without other compelling attributes like great size, elite athleticism, lots of steals or rebounds, I need to see more than a 35% 3-point percentage to use the 11th pick on him in the hope that he'll be an elite NBA 3-point shooter.
4. J. Hayes. I know he's rated higher on most boards than the three bigs I included in my top 10. I'm impressed by his 2.2 blocks in only 23.3 minutes per game and I'm also intrigued by his nearly 73% FG shooting. But I'm just not that impressed by him overall as an NBA prospect. Watching him play, he looks slow and mechanical in his reactions and movements. He's not particularly long for an NBA center with a 9'2.5 overhead reach. His combine test results showed him to be slower than Bruno Fernando and an inferior vertical compared to Kabengele and Claxton. He actually reminds me of Justin Patton, but not as smooth. I would definitely stay away from him.
5. Hachimura. Some mocks have him slipping to #11 or lower. I actually like him and almost put him on my top 10 at 11 list. But I have a hard time getting beyond his low 6.5 rebounds and 0.7 blocks per game. Those numbers at the college level from a Jr. don't bode well for an NBA PF. That said, I recognize reports that he's a late bloomer who started playing basketball fairly late in life. And I really like his 59% FG shooting on 12.6 attempts. He seems quite skilled and by all accounts he has a tremendous motor and worth ethic. So I wouldn't be upset if the Wolves ended up drafting him at #11. I'd have to trust that Rosas and his people knew what they were doing.
monsterpile wrote:Just a bit over 2 weeks till the draft and is there anyone here absolutely pounding the table for one guy you wouldn't want to trade down and be devastated if we didn't get him? Maybe some people that really like Clarke. So why not trade down?What if other teams don't have a guy they want to trade up and get?
--Austin Ainge on impact of having three top-22 picks: "It really is evaluating a lot of the same group for all three picks, right? Not any of us can distinguish between 14 and 22 at this point, for the most part. It's a lot of the same guys for all of those picks and workouts."
This is precisely the reason someone like Boston likely won't trade their 2 picks for our 1. The consensus is that picks 10-20 are similar.
It all depends on who's available at #11 and whether one of those available players is someone the Celtics or Nets covet. Boston has picks #14, 20 and 22. The Nets have picks 17 and 27. I could see either team really wanting someone at #11 and swapping two picks to move up. I could see Boston trading pickles 20 and 22. But right now I think at least two of Boston's picks will end up going to the Pelicans in a deal for AD. I'd be happy with the Nets' two picks in exchange for our #11.
Yep. If Colby white falls Boston might be interested. Also they might be interested in Teague for #22.
At the moment it looks like kyrie is gone, and I don't think they want to sign rozier to a multi year deal and make him the starter going forward (rozier is pretty delusional and ripped the organization this offseason already). They really don't have a PG next year at the moment.
I also don't think they go after Davis. If kyrie is gone. They would be risking not having kyrie, Davis, brown, tatum, Horford and picks all going into 2021. What would be disastrous
Here's a list of my top 10 first-round prospects for the Wolves among those with a good chance of being available at #11:
1. Cam Johnson. He reminds me of Klay Thompson. He's the best 3-point shooter in college basketball. He's very smooth and smart. Unlike Dylan Windler, Johnson is more than just a shooter. He's good with the ball and has a nice dribble penetration game. He's a good passer as well. It would appear that we could trade down for two 1st round picks and get Johnson. That's what I would do. Then I'd focus on drafting one of the bigs with the other 1st round pick.
2. Nic Claxton. Of all the bigs in the draft, he's the one who looks like he could be a star. He has terrific length for a PF with a 9'2" overhead reach. His length combines with the best vertical among the true bigs - (31.5" standing vertical and a 36.5" max). His combine testing didn't show him to be super fast or quick, but he looks really quick and supple on the court. He has advanced ball-handling skills for a young big. The concern I have with him is his shooting - only 46% from field and 64% from the line. Of course, that's a big reason he'll likely be available at #11 and possibly as low as 25. But I like his shooting form and he's shown he can hit from NBA 3-point range. Most of all, I love his talent and his motor. He might be worth the 11th pick based on his upside.
3. Kabengele or Bruno Fernando. I put these two together because I see them as very similar prospects. I'd like the Wolves to consider taking one of these if they trade down for two 1st round picks. Both remind me of Montrezl Harrell. They're almost identical to Montrezl in size and they play like him. Both would bring some real toughness to our front court. Although both are primarily low-post scorers and rebounders/shot-blockers, both have shown the ability to hit from behind the arc. Fernando strikes me as the better of the two right now. He's the best rebounder among the bigs, averaging 10.6 boards per game in only 30 minutes. He's also one of the most efficient scorers, hitting 60.7% of his FGs. He also blocked 2 shots per game.
4. Brandon Clarke. I still like him in spite of his reptilian arms. :) He was a prolific shot-blocker in college and a very efficient scorer. While lacking length, he's a tremendous athlete.
5. Seriously Doumbouya. I've bought into the hype. Seems to have a huge upside based on what I've ready. His video highlights were pretty impressive, but didn't blow me away. His Euro stats were underwhelming. But again, I bought into the hype.
6. KZ Okpala. I'm intrigued by a SF with an 8'10.5" over head reach and nearly 7'2 wingspan, especially when he put up really solid numbers as a sophomore, including nearly 17 points per game on 46.3% shooting including 36.8% from behind the arc. He also tested out as a very good athlete and he's shown nice ballhandling and penetration skills in the videos I've seen.
7. Nassir Little. He just barely made my list. I'm concerned about his lack of playing time. I'm not sure he's particularly good with the ball. But I love his motor, which he combines with terrific length (8'8.5" overhead reach and 7'1.25 wingspan) and very good athleticism (38.5" max vertical). His 4.6 rebounds per game in only 18 minutes pencils out to around 9 rebounds per 36 minutes. I see him as a terrific defender and rebounder as a SF at the next level. But I'm not sure he'll be much more than that, although he hit 48% of his 7.6 FG attempts per game. He's very young and would appear to have a lot of upside. So he might be worth the risk at #11.
8. Alexander-Walker. I thought his tournament play was underwhelming. But I've taken a fresh look at him and have him back on my 1st-round favorites list. His combine measurements were surprisingly long with an 8'6" overhead reach and 6'9.5 wingspan. I've always liked his regular season numbers, especially his 2 steals per game, 47% FG shooting and 37.4% 3-point shooting. I've been pouring over video of his play and the more I watch, the more I'm impressed by his playmaking ability. I see him becoming and NBA PG. Now that I know he has very good length for a wing, the though of him playing the point is even more exciting. He really sees the floor and has a nice feel for the game. He's also tough. He reminds me a bit of Jrue Holiday.
9. Romeo Langford. I struggled with whether to include him among my 1st-round favorites. His terrible 27% three-point percentage is troubling. And I'm concerned about reports that his motor isn't always running. But watching him play, he stands out from the pack in my view as the player on my list with the greatest potential. He has a tremendous fluidity to his game with long arms and elite athleticism. He looks like he could be a star. The fact that he played most of the season with a broken finger on his shooting hand mitigates his poor 3-point shooting to some extent. Moreover, the reviews I've read don't raise the same sort of red flag I see associated with Cam Reddish or Keven Porter Jr. And it's important to remember Langford was a freshman. So I have him on my list as a very high upside/low floor prospect.
10. J. Nowell. He's not projected to go in the first round. So I'm hoping he lasts until #43 for our 2nd round pick. I'm surprised he hasn't gotten much hype. His numbers as a Sophomore were terrific - hitting 50.2% of his 12.1 FG attempts per game and 44% of his threes. He has a solid wingspan for a SG at 6'7.25 and tested out really well athletically with a 32" standing vertical, a 38.5" max vertical and a 10.76 agility time. I don't think I'd take him in the 1st round, but I'd snag him at #43 and I'd consider buying a 2nd round pick slightly higher if possible to get him.
Here are some of the prospects I left off my list and why:
1. Cam Reddish. While most mock drafts have him gone before the 11th pick, I could see him falling to #11. But I wouldn't even consider drafting him. He's one giant red flag. It starts with the many reviews questioning his motor and even questioning is passion for the game. Then you look at his terrible scoring stats considering his tremendous physical gifts. 39% FG shooting? Yuck. His flag is more red than any flag I even saw associated with Wiggins.
2. Kevin Porter Jr. I absolutely love his talent. But there is too much smoke associated with his character to believe there isn't a fire there somewhere. I see another JR Rider in the making with him. I'll admit he could actually become a star. But he's a true boom/bust prospect and I'd put more money on bust than boom.
3. Tyler Herro. I can't get beyond his 6'3.25 wingspan. That just won't get it done defensively as an NBA SG, especially if you're not an elite athlete and Herro is definitely not an elite athlete. Watching him in the tournament and in video highlights, I'm not impressed by his ballhandling. In fact, NBAdraftnet rates his ballhandling at 7. For a small SG, that's a red flag in and of itself. His main selling point is his 3-point shooting, but his 35.5% 3-point percentage from behind the college arc is underwhelming. I get that his stellar free-throw percentage suggest that he could become an elite 3-point shooter. But without other compelling attributes like great size, elite athleticism, lots of steals or rebounds, I need to see more than a 35% 3-point percentage to use the 11th pick on him in the hope that he'll be an elite NBA 3-point shooter.
4. J. Hayes. I know he's rated higher on most boards than the three bigs I included in my top 10. I'm impressed by his 2.2 blocks in only 23.3 minutes per game and I'm also intrigued by his nearly 73% FG shooting. But I'm just not that impressed by him overall as an NBA prospect. Watching him play, he looks slow and mechanical in his reactions and movements. He's not particularly long for an NBA center with a 9'2.5 overhead reach. His combine test results showed him to be slower than Bruno Fernando and an inferior vertical compared to Kabengele and Claxton. He actually reminds me of Justin Patton, but not as smooth. I would definitely stay away from him.
5. Hachimura. Some mocks have him slipping to #11 or lower. I actually like him and almost put him on my top 10 at 11 list. But I have a hard time getting beyond his low 6.5 rebounds and 0.7 blocks per game. Those numbers at the college level from a Jr. don't bode well for an NBA PF. That said, I recognize reports that he's a late bloomer who started playing basketball fairly late in life. And I really like his 59% FG shooting on 12.6 attempts. He seems quite skilled and by all accounts he has a tremendous motor and worth ethic. So I wouldn't be upset if the Wolves ended up drafting him at #11. I'd have to trust that Rosas and his people knew what they were doing.
Solid list. I still love windler and the only thing I really disagree with is the bigs you have at #3, I just don't think they will be good
I was really intrigued by Windler too. His shooting and rebound stats are terrific. You have to discount those stats a bit considering the level of competition he faces, but I still find his shooting and rebounding stats impressive. So I do like him. But I've been watching a lot of videos of him - highlight videos that likely show him at his best. Those videos confirm his shooting prowess. But they also show him to be a limited offensive player who does two things - he shoots perimeter shots and cuts to the basket. He doesn't do much of anything with the ball in his hand except shoot. And his motions are a bit mechanical.
By way of contrast, watch Cam Johnson's videos. You'll see similarly impressive perimeter shooting, but you'll also see him take guys off the dribble, split defenders with the ball and force turnovers on the defensive end. It's night and day. Johnson's shooting stats are very similar to Windler's, but against tougher competition. Johnson is my first round sleeper. He's projected anywhere from the the last 5 picks in the first round to the early second round. His draft rating obviously reflects his age since upper classmen tend to get punished in draft ratings. But then I think about a junior like Buddy Hield or a Senior like Brandon Roy. The more I think about it, the more inclined I'd be to trade down and take Cam Johnson if I were Rosas.
I looked up Windler today and yeah it looks like the guy can shoot. What adds to the intrusive for me is 6'6.25" barefoot and 6'10" wingspan. He averages like 21/11 and his efficiency was off the charts with an over 68% true shooting. Would ai he sold on him at #11? No but he is interesting.
monsterpile wrote:I looked up Windler today and yeah it looks like the guy can shoot. What adds to the intrusive for me is 6'6.25" barefoot and 6'10" wingspan. He averages like 21/11 and his efficiency was off the charts with an over 68% true shooting. Would ai he sold on him at #11? No but he is interesting.
He's definitely interesting. I have no doubt he can be a very good shooter in the NBA. His length will help him get his shot off against the better defenders in the NBA. I suggest you watch his highlight videos. I was really excited about him after reviewing his stats. But watching his best stuff in highlight videos brought me back to earth in a big way. He appears to have no dribble drive game at all. His only move is a step back, which helps him get his long-range shot off. He's not very fluid and just doesn't look like anything more than a shooter off the bench who can also rebound. Watch his videos and then immediately watch Cam Johnson's. Both are great shooters, but the overall difference between them is stark. Cam actually looks like an NBA player in the mold of Klay Thompson. He's fluid with a lightning quick release. He can handle the ball with skill, drive the lane and pass or shoot on the move. My eye test tells me to stay away from Windler in the 1st round.
monsterpile wrote:I looked up Windler today and yeah it looks like the guy can shoot. What adds to the intrusive for me is 6'6.25" barefoot and 6'10" wingspan. He averages like 21/11 and his efficiency was off the charts with an over 68% true shooting. Would ai he sold on him at #11? No but he is interesting.
He's definitely interesting. I have no doubt he can be a very good shooter in the NBA. His length will help him get his shot off against the better defenders in the NBA. I suggest you watch his highlight videos. I was really excited about him after reviewing his stats. But watching his best stuff in highlight videos brought me back to earth in a big way. He appears to have no dribble drive game at all. His only move is a step back, which helps him get his long-range shot off. He's not very fluid and just doesn't look like anything more than a shooter off the bench who can also rebound. Watch his videos and then immediately watch Cam Johnson's. Both are great shooters, but the overall difference between them is stark. Cam actually looks like an NBA player in the mold of Klay Thompson. He's fluid with a lightning quick release. He can handle the ball with skill, drive the lane and pass or shoot on the move. My eye test tells me to stay away from Windler in the 1st round.
Yeah the highlight videos were basically him moving around and bombing 3's. In the back of my mind I was wondering...what kind of highlight videos you get on a guy from Belmont if you know what I mean. You mentioned his one move is a step back. Can you imagine if Kyle Korver had a legit step back move AND was more of a volume guy? He wouldn't be a star but he would be closer to a JJ Redick than just a guy on the good end of fringe starter. I haven't looked at Cam Johnson yet but I wouldn't argue about him being a higher priority over Windler.
