What will be different under Saunders?

[Wolvesfan21]

I think it's too early to say. You can look at obvious in game things and see if you agree or not. But really, our sample size is just far too small right now. We have 6 games under Ryan versus a couple years of Thibs. To be fair you really should give a coach a full offseason and training camp to really get the players on the same page as him. Being thrown into the fire midseason and expecting to make improvements isn't really fair.

I'm not saying keep Ryan nor am I saying don't keep him, only that we need more data and that the deck is stacked against him.

I think we as fans are far too bipolar much of the time, we're the best when we win, the worst when we lose (exaggeration, duh). We need to look at the bigger picture.

[Monster]

We're six games into the Saunders era, and here are my thoughts on what is worse, what is the same, and what is better than the Dark Ages. Except for the W-L record, everything is my opinion or observation.

What is worse: I honestly can't think of anything that is worse under Saunders

What is the same:
1) Our hopes for a "new Wig" are dashed...he is the same heartless piece of crap under Ryan that he was under Thibs. Some pointed out the heart he showed in the first two Saunders games, but I pointed out that a "new Wig" teased us in the final two Thibs games too. Last night's debacle has me convinced that Wig will be no better under Ryan than Thibs.
2) Further, Ryan continues to give Wig too many undeserved minutes, just like Thibs did. I recognize we were short-handed last night with Rob and Tyus out, Teague ill, and Josh not quite ready for big minutes in close games But still it was a travesty to give a guy who wasn't showing a pulse last night 40 minutes. And Ryan continues to give Wig too many minutes at the start of games, even on the rare nights he is playing well. Ryan needs to recognize the nights when Wig doesn't care, and reduce his minutes.
3) Our poor defense. I said many times that Thibs proved he couldn't coach a Wolves defense without Butler or RoCo, and it looks like Ryan is not going to be much different. Our perimeter defense is as awful now as it was during the Dark Ages, and is especially bad with Rob and Tyus out.

What is better:
1) End of game management. It's odd that a 32 year old rookie coach is so much better than a veteran at crunch time, but he clearly is...and that is the main reason we have won 3 out of 5 nail biters under Ryan. Offense/defense substitutions are common with most NBA coaches, but Thibs seldom adopted this strategy late in games...Ryan OTOH uses it regularly and effectively. Secondly, many of us were frustrated by the MicroManager using his time outs too early so he seldom had any available when he really needed them. Ryan understands the value of a late game time out, and uses them much more judiciously. I can't overemphasize the importance of these two changes.

2) Our record. Despite the Philly debacle, the Wolves are 3-3 under Ryan...with all of his wins (and two of his losses) against Western teams. Thibs was 6-9 in his final 15 games, with half of those wins against the weak East (I cherry picked 15 games because it's the time period Jim Pete cited last night...I will be sure to update this with Ryan's record in his first 15 games). It's also notable that Thibs had our best defensive player RoCo available for 11 of those 15 games, while Ryan hasn't had him on the court yet. Even though Ryan faces a tougher schedule than Thibs did the rest of the way, early returns are that we should be more successful under Ryan...especially if we get RoCo back soon.

3)Rotations: While I'm not happy with the number of minutes Ryan is giving Wig, he clearly is using his roster in a more robust and creative way. He's not tied to a stubborn 9-man rotation like Thibs was, and sometimes even uses 11 players like last night despite coming into the game short-handed. Thibs generally used injuries as a reason to shorten his bench and wear out his starters. I expect that Ryan's rotations will be even more effective when we get RoCo and Tyus back.


4) Deng. Thibs only used Deng 3 times in a mop up role. In his first 6 games, Ryan has turned to Deng twice in critical moments of the game...both times very successfully. Luol is not a guy who deserves to take big minutes away from the talented young roster, but he is a proven winner, and Ryan has found a way to effectively use him that the unflexible Thibs just couldn't see.

5) Collaboration with coaches and control of the team. I have always admired how Pop would start his timeout breaks by listening to his 3 assistant coaches...the four of them always standing in the same formation. Ryan models his time out behavior after Pop, not Thibs...an excellent choice. And all player eyes continue to be focused on him when he finally addresses them.

6) Sideline demeanor. It is so pleasant to have an adult on the sidelines rather than a red-faced whining baboon...both visually and audibly.

7) Player interaction. I watched and watch Thibs and Ryan closely, and their interaction with players is remarkably different. He's not afraid to praise a player when he does something good, and never scowls visibly on the sidelines when a player screws up...I know several posters here see this as not meaningful, but I have to respectfully disagree. That said, I have seem Ryan pull players aside on several occasions (most often Okogie) when they do something he think needs correcting. And while I didn't observe it, KAT said in today's Strib that Ryan is working with him on his whining, and trying to convince him he will get more calls if he gets the refs on his side.

I noticed several posters seeming to be critical of Ryan compared to Thibs in last night's GDT, so I expect this post to generate some interesting discussion. Be specific, and tell me where I am wrong...critique my "what is better" list with specifics, and add some items to my empty "what is worse" list. Ready, go!

I take some problems on saying we are defiantly better with Saunders and nothing bad has happened.

Def Rating
With Thibs
109.1 (16th in the NBA)

With Saunders
116.9 (27th in the NBA)

Difference
7.8 pts per 100 worse and dropped 11 positions in the NBA.

Off Rating
With Thibs
109.4 (15th in the NBA)

With Saunders
110.6 (13th in the NBA)

Difference
1.2 pts per 100 better moved up 2 spots

Pace
With Thibs
101.12 (12th in the NBA)

With Saunders
102.67 (7th in the NBA)

Difference
1 possession more a game moved up 5 teams

EFG%
With Thibs
50.8% (23rd in the NBA)

With Saunders
47.7% (last in the NBA)

Difference
3.1 % worse and moved to the worst team in the NBA

Net Rating
With Thibs
+0.3 (18th in the NBA)

With Saunders
-6.3 (25th in the NBA)

Difference
6.6 pts worse and dropped 7 spots

3PT Attempts
With Thibs
28.5 attempts per game (23rd in the NBA)

With Saunders
27.8 attempts per game (24th in the NBA)

Difference
0.7 attempts more with Thibs no real difference

% of pts from 3 pts and mid range 2pt attempts
Are legit identical, its non significant difference but we score 0.3% of our pts come from mid range jumpers under Saunders

Defending 3 pt Attempts and %
With Thibs
12.3 made 3 against (28th in the NBA) 37.3 % (last in the NBA)

With Saunders
12.3 made 3 against (23rd in the NBA) 37.4% (16th in the NBA)

Difference
Identical on both cases

Players minutes
Wiggins minutes increased by 2.5 minutes per game
Towns minutes down 3.7 minutes pr game (foul trouble)
Okogie up 6.2 minute per game (different role)
Teauge down 5.1 minutes per game
Rose up 1.4 minutes per game
Tyus in identical
Taj up 0.3 minutes per game
Saric down 2.4 minutes per game

The Wolves are 3-3 under Saunders and 1-5 against the spread. Don't get me wrong Thibs should of gotten fired. But lets not act like we are better now with him fired. We are worse or the same in almost every category, from defense to offense. We are not playing a significant faster pace and we are shooting a little less 3s under Saunders. The % of our pts from mid range 2s are the same and the % of our pts that come from 3s are the same. The only big difference in minutes under Saunders is he is playing more guys but besides Teauge their is no drop off in players minutes and in many cases he is playing guys more than Thibs did.

In the Clutch we are 3-2, in 2 of those wins (Suns and Thunder) we ran the things we all hate, we ran iso mid range 2 for Rose and iso mid range 2 for Wiggins the only difference is the ball went in the hoop on those bad shots.

Don't get me wrong I don't miss Thibs yelling every possession but to say we are better off isn't true. Maybe we are a little bit more fun to watch because of it but stats are showing early that we have been worse since Saunders took over or the same (I understand small sample size and the sixers game could skew data).

Sorry for the long ass post

Good data, kek. But I would argue that Thibs having RoCo for most of his games and Saunders not having him on the court yet has a lot to do with the granular stats. You're not going to measure as well when you lose a guy who is a DPOY candidate and your highest volume 3-point shooter. And yet, despite not having Covington, Ryan is still 3-3 in his first 6 games compared to Thibs' 6-9 in his last 15. Essentially replacing Covington with a very raw Josh Okogie is a big drop off...Ryan is doing a lot right to stay at .500 despite that drop off. As I said, it's a small sample size, and I'll update the w/l record after Ryan finishes his 15 games. But personally I'll be surprised if Ryan doesn't beat Thibs' 6-9...with or without RoCo.

LST that was a pretty through breakdown of your thoughts and then kek comes back with some numbers to actually ponder as well. Good stuff.

It's worth mentioning that Thibs even if it was his own doing had some thought patches as well missing players the whole Butler thing Wiggins and Teague missing games early etc. one thing that's plagued this team at least half of Ryan Saubders games is this team getting great looks at the hoop for huge stretches at the beginning of the game and a lot of the first half and missing them. If he could just coach them to stop missing bunnies at the rim early on we would be really rolling. Lol

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I think it's too early to say. You can look at obvious in game things and see if you agree or not. But really, our sample size is just far too small right now. We have 6 games under Ryan versus a couple years of Thibs. To be fair you really should give a coach a full offseason and training camp to really get the players on the same page as him. Being thrown into the fire midseason and expecting to make improvements isn't really fair.

I'm not saying keep Ryan nor am I saying don't keep him, only that we need more data and that the deck is stacked against him.

I think we as fans are far too bipolar much of the time, we're the best when we win, the worst when we lose (exaggeration, duh). We need to look at the bigger picture.

No question that it's way too early to form any conclusions. But 6 games is enough time to observe differences in how Thibs and Ryan coach, and the differences are quite stark. Who knows which coach will be more successful. My guess is that Ryan's style of collaboration with his assistants, positive reinforcement rather than grimaces, saving time outs until crunch time rather than using them all up early, using more of the roster etc. will be more successful than Thibs' doing things the opposite way, but only time will tell. And Glen has a full half season to evaluate whether Ryan is the right guy for the job.

[Wolvesfan21]

I think it's too early to say. You can look at obvious in game things and see if you agree or not. But really, our sample size is just far too small right now. We have 6 games under Ryan versus a couple years of Thibs. To be fair you really should give a coach a full offseason and training camp to really get the players on the same page as him. Being thrown into the fire midseason and expecting to make improvements isn't really fair.

I'm not saying keep Ryan nor am I saying don't keep him, only that we need more data and that the deck is stacked against him.

I think we as fans are far too bipolar much of the time, we're the best when we win, the worst when we lose (exaggeration, duh). We need to look at the bigger picture.

No question that it's way too early to form any conclusions. But 6 games is enough time to observe differences in how Thibs and Ryan coach, and the differences are quite stark. Who knows which coach will be more successful. My guess is that Ryan's style of collaboration with his assistants, positive reinforcement rather than grimaces, saving time outs until crunch time rather than using them all up early, using more of the roster etc. will be more successful than Thibs' doing things the opposite way, but only time will tell. And Glen has a full half season to evaluate whether Ryan is the right guy for the job.

I agree 100% on what I've seen thus far. Even if it hasn't translated to on the court success yet (still too early of course). I think Ryans style is more apt to result into success than Thibs. I am on board with Ryan.

Will he be the best guy for the job come summer, that I don't know yet.

[Lipoli390]

Way too early to meaningfully compared the two. Ryan can't significantly change the team's offensive or defensive systems/schemes substantially in the short time he's had and probably can't implement much change the rest of the season. He'd need an off-season and training camp to do that. If this had been very early in the season, then perhaps Ryan would have had time to implement significant changes and get positive results by now. But it's far to late in the season to make changes and see results. And it will certainly take far more than six games for Ryan to put his stamp on the team in a way that would allow us to compare him to Thibodeau. To the extent Ryan tries to change schemes, the team is likely to suffer as it learns and adjusts to those new schemes. In other words, the team probably needs to take a step back before it can take two steps forward. But in any event, six games for Ryan isn't anything close to a big enough sample size to compare him to Thibodeau.

[thedoper]

One difference right now is a winning record.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

One difference right now is a winning record.

Yep, 5-3 now (although almost certainly 5-4 after a short-handed game against Utah tonight).

And Ryan is 3-1 on the road so far despite playing with several key players out...Thibs was 5-15.

[kekgeek]

One difference right now is a winning record.

Yep, 5-3 now (although almost certainly 5-4 after a short-handed game against Utah tonight).

And Ryan is 3-1 on the road so far despite playing with several key players out...Thibs was 5-15.

Once again i'm happy but we have played 5 games against non playoff teams (4-1) and 3 against playoff teams (1-2).

But still big win last night to clinch the tiebreaker with the lakers

[crazy-canuck [enjin:18955461]]

3 things I liked that saunders did last night.

1. He took wiggs out for half the 3rd. It allowed wiggs to ball out to start the 4th rested, then took him out with a couple of minutes still left in the game for a job well done. No way thibs does that.

2. He let okogie take the technical ft. The kid has really been struggling with his shot, so showing faith in him to shoot that ft is a confidence booster. No way thibs does that.

3. He tells guys to be ready and isnt afraid to play them meaningful minutes. It's much easier to be ready when you know there is a chance to play. Thibs might do that, but only if we are down or up by 30 with a minute left in the game.

[AbeVigodaLive]

3 things I liked that saunders did last night.

1. He took wiggs out for half the 3rd. It allowed wiggs to ball out to start the 4th rested, then took him out with a couple of minutes still left in the game for a job well done. No way thibs does that.

2. He let okogie take the technical ft. The kid has really been struggling with his shot, so showing faith in him to shoot that ft is a confidence booster. No way thibs does that.

3. He tells guys to be ready and isnt afraid to play them meaningful minutes. It's much easier to be ready when you know there is a chance to play. Thibs might do that, but only if we are down or up by 30 with a minute left in the game.

Trying something new with the rotations (and benching a vet player) paid off and was HUGE in that win last night.