3-point defense

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

The amount of 3's these teams are jacking up - and making - is staggering. Never mind the Toronto-Miami trench warfare. Look at Golden State vs. Portland or the erstwhile Cleveland demolition of Atlanta. Defending the 3 is becoming just as important as defending the paint.

The only way to stop (or limit?) prolific 3-point shooters is to hard-hedge them while the guy guarding them gets over the top of screens, which of course frees up the screener who is rolling hard to the hoop, OR to flat out switch everything. This is the strategy Mitchell employed when we beat Golden State and we limited them to "only" 12 made 3-pointers.

Against a team like Golden State and even Portland, I like the "switch everything" defense. These teams are so dependent on their guards to make shots, that even if a screening big man gets a mismatch off the switch, fine, let him post up a smaller player and make him beat us with mid-range 2-point turnarounds or jump hooks. I like those odds better than giving Klay Thompson or Steph Curry a split second of daylight from beyond the arc.

But a team that employs this strategy needs bigs that can also contain the guard on dribble drive, because if they can't, it either leads to a layup or a kick out to another 3-point shooter on the perimeter. So in my opinion, this puts a huge premium on defenders that are lengthy and mobile. Think a younger KG, Willie Cauley-Stein, KAT, etc.

As the Wolves eye the draft and free agency, I'd prioritize length and mobility over bulk and strength, even though I know we are lacking in that category. Sure, let's pick up a bulky big dude that can bang inside. Or may be Pek gets healthy enough to give us 15 minutes per game. But that's not where we should be spending the big bucks.

Thibs is considered a defensive genius. I feel like the next frontier is to figure out how to shut down teams that rely heavily on 3-pointers.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

There once was a man named Nerlens...

[SameOldNudityDrew]

Good analysis as usual. I'm curious how well Noah can still move. Last year scares me off, and the injuries, but I still think he'd be a great fit if he were anywhere near his old self.

On the wings, I liked the improvement LaVine made on that end last year, but the real key to your hedging and switching, Q, would be Wiggins stepping up his defensive game and getting another rangy wing/forward who can switch defensively. It's weird to think, but could Payne be that guy? Not ideally. But on our current roster, if we needed to deploy a defense to do what you're asking for, I'd look to him before Bazz and Bjelica. But those two, especially Bjelica, are more valuable offensively. So I wouldn't want to count on that next year. The more I think about it, swapping out Bazz (maybe with the pick this year) for a longer 3 and D guy just makes too much sense unless we happen to land a guy like Deng in free agency.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

What's crazy is that Rudez was actually pretty good in the entire league in 3pt defense last year. Maybe I shouldn't have overlooked him.

[Duke13]

Well said Q, I was having the same thoughts as I was watching that game last night. The number of 3's and the accuracy in which they were being made was crazy. That's how the game is played now. That's why Green is for sure a top 10 player in my opinion, so valuable on both sides of the ball.

That's also why I'd like to see KAT stay at the center position, he's actually one guy Green would struggle to defend, mismatch nightmare.

I was also thinking last nights game was a good example to show the limitations to Rubio's value and long term impact on a playoff contender. It would be very difficult to have a guy who struggles shooting and creating for himself off the dribble on the court in crunch time if a game was played anywhere near how last nights was played.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

Sadly, our guards are generally bad at this. Our best 3 point defending guard last year statistically? Kevin Martin, who held guys 2.4% below their average. I'd love to hear what some guys here think about that!

Rubio was at.2% below, which is right around average. And LaVine and Wiggins' opponents shot .6 and .7 percent better, respectively, with those two guarding them, which is a little more below average than Rubio is above it. Tyus was the worst though, giving up 5.6% higher 3pt percentages than his opponents averages.

There are guys out there who held their opponents to 10-13% lower 3 point percentages for the season. Ginobili and Troy Daniels actually reached the 13% threshold last year, which is impressive. Other names showed up relatively high for a couple years, not necessarily guys you'd imagine though, like Marcus Thornton and OJ Mayo. Nick Calathes was up there two years in a row. Otherwise there's a lot of variety, so it's tough to say with a great deal of confidence that a guy is consistently good at this.

Edit: I was filtering out to focus guards for this post while searching this data on NBA.com. Rudez looked good when looking at forwards.

[Coolbreeze44]

Q, I couldn't agree more. I think having longer players that can defend the perimeter is a huge advantage when trying to slow down 3 point shooting teams. The length alone can be disruptive to shooters, but when you add in the mobility you really have something.

One year I was having problems with a particular team that was adept at hitting the 3 ball. I had a relatively long team and good, athletic guards, but we still had trouble containing their shooters. My solution was to deploy a 1-3-1 that had my tallest players guarding the perimeter, and my best athlete running the baseline. It was amazing how much trouble the relatively smallish players of our opponent had shooting over our length from the outside. We suffered a bit in rebounding, but the net was very positive.

I think Wig and Kat will flourish under Thibs in defending the 3 point line. But you're absolutely right, it's huge as the game moves forward.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Sadly, our wings are generally bad at this. Our best 3 point defender last year statistically? Kevin Martin, who held guys 2.4% below their average. I'd love to hear what some guys here think about that!

Rubio was at.2% below, which is right around average. And LaVine and Wiggins' opponents shot .6 and .7 percent better, respectively, with those two guarding them, which is a little more below average than Rubio is above it. Tyus was the worst though, giving up 5.6% higher 3pt percentages than his opponents averages.

There are guys out there who held their opponents to 10-13% lower 3 point percentages for the season. Ginobili and Troy Daniels actually reached the 13% threshold last year, which is impressive. Other names showed up relatively high for a couple years, not necessarily guys you'd imagine though, like Marcus Thornton and OJ Mayo. Nick Calathes was up there two years in a row. Otherwise there's a lot of variety, so it's tough to say with a great deal of confidence that a guy is consistently good at this.

Open three pointers is more about team defense than individuals getting beat by their man. For example, good teams find the weak link and begin zipping the ball around before the defense can react for an open look.

Remember those gifs from early in the season when the Spurs were literally spinning Wolves defenders in circles whipping the ball around for open looks?

[Monster]

Good analysis as usual. I'm curious how well Noah can still move. Last year scares me off, and the injuries, but I still think he'd be a great fit if he were anywhere near his old self.

On the wings, I liked the improvement LaVine made on that end last year, but the real key to your hedging and switching, Q, would be Wiggins stepping up his defensive game and getting another rangy wing/forward who can switch defensively. It's weird to think, but could Payne be that guy? Not ideally. But on our current roster, if we needed to deploy a defense to do what you're asking for, I'd look to him before Bazz and Bjelica. But those two, especially Bjelica, are more valuable offensively. So I wouldn't want to count on that next year. The more I think about it, swapping out Bazz (maybe with the pick this year) for a longer 3 and D guy just makes too much sense unless we happen to land a guy like Deng in free agency.

Payne's defense because of his physical attributes are just theory at this point and what you are describing is the same types of things Flip said about him. I've seen very little to make me think he can actually be a positive factor. I've seen plenty of good stuff from Belly I would take him over Payne no question.

[Monster]

Q, I couldn't agree more. I think having longer players that can defend the perimeter is a huge advantage when trying to slow down 3 point shooting teams. The length alone can be disruptive to shooters, but when you add in the mobility you really have something.

One year I was having problems with a particular team that was adept at hitting the 3 ball. I had a relatively long team and good, athletic guards, but we still had trouble containing their shooters. My solution was to deploy a 1-3-1 that had my tallest players guarding the perimeter, and my best athlete running the baseline. It was amazing how much trouble the relatively smallish players of our opponent had shooting over our length from the outside. We suffered a bit in rebounding, but the net was very positive.

I think Wig and Kat will flourish under Thibs in defending the 3 point line. But you're absolutely right, it's huge as the game moves forward.

That 1-3-1 is fun to watch when you have the right guys at the top and at the bottom.