The Market for Free Agents

[TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]]

Its hard to decide what our plans should be in free agency without knowing what the likely going rate would be for free agents. So I wanted to start a thread that uses our collective wisdom to make some educated guesses as to how much free agents will get paid, especially those that might be good fits for us. Links to http://hoopshype.com/2016/05/03/nba-free-agency-2016-the-top-players/Top 80 free agents in 2016 and http://espn.go.com/blog/nba/post/_/id/6711/free-agents-2016-and-2017comprehensive list of free agents in 2016 and 2017.

Part 1. So which players do you think will get the max or near max ($20 Mill or above)?

Part 2. Of guys that have been discussed as potential targets on this board or guys you think we should consider pursuing, what do you think will be the going rate or what is the most you think we should pay? (e.g. Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, Kent Bazemore, Ezeli, Harrison Barnes, Horford, Batum, Aldrich, Hibbert, Marvin Williams, Fournier, Ryan Anderson, Biyombo, Dudley, Courtney Lee, Afflalo, Brandon Jennings, Conley, Pau Gasol, Nene, Mozgov, Mahinmi, Crabbe)

[Hicks123 [enjin:6700838]]

Well, we aren't going to fix everything in one off-season. Here are several examples of things I would pursue....again, knowing we may only address a couple.

I would try to target the following:

1) Add bulk to Center position
- Target: Mozgov, Pachulia

2) Depth at PF spot
- Target: Marv Williams, Dwight Powell

3) Add 3-point shooting from wing spot
- Target: Crabbe, Dudley

4) PG depth:
- Lin, Dellavadova

You will notice I don't have any of the big names above. Guys like Horford, Barnes, Batum are all likely max guys....and I don't want to pay any of these guys max contracts. I love Horford's total game, but if we are paying a PF/C max money, he needs to be a dominant rebounder and defender, and Horford's rebounding game is deteriorating quickly. I would love a guy like Bazemore if he is reasonable as well.

[Carlos Danger]

I don't want to jack your thread TeamRicky, but I can't even get to that point yet of which FA's to add or how to manage the cap. I'm waiting for a few things to clear up first. Specifically:

1.) Our lotto position. This will help clarify who we might be picking in the upcoming draft.

2.) Clean up the mess of Bigs. We have about $34M tied up in the under contract for next year: Towns, Dieng, Belly, KG, Pek and Payne. I certainly hope at least two of those guys are not on next year's roster. Payne could be an easy buyout. But it would be great if we'd get some insight from the new coach on KG/Pek. I think carrying one of those guys next year is okay. But IMO carrying more than one of Pek/KG/Payne handicaps our roster and could affect FA signings of other Bigs.

3.) Long term planning. It's easy to just post "grab this max guy" or "trade for that max guy" on message boards. But how many top tier Free Agents have the Wolves actually signed over their 27 year history? And aside from Wiggins/Towns - who on our team has big enough trade value to bring back a max player? Some will say "package our pick" and add someone like Bazz. But I just don't see any such big moves being made. I think it's far more likely we get some mid-level/rotation depth. Specifically, guys who Thibbs has relationships with from prior stops which he can use to help implement his system. I think bigger moves will happen farther down the road after Thibbs has had more time to evaluate the team he inherited.

[JasonIsDaMan [enjin:7981157]]

So the whole board widely acknowledges that KAT, Dieng and KG are all 4's, without even mentioning whether or not Belly is a 3 or a 4, but the Wolves should...go out and sign more 4's?

Another problem: The NBA isn't the NFL. In the NFL, if you are running the ball, you send in running backs and blockers. If you are passing the ball, you send in receivers. It also isn't the MLB, where you start the game with a pitcher who throws 100 times, then three guys who throw 15-20 times each, and send up a different guy to hit for them because no one wants to see that. It also isn't the NHL, where you see Patrick Kane out there so you shoot the puck down the ice and replace the guys you have out there with your "checking line" without having to call timeout or having a stoppage in play.
The NBA is less about specialization and more about 36 minutes from your best 5 guys. That means you either teach Wiggins/Bazz to shoot the three, or you replace them, or decide that what they do bring is enough. You don't sign a 3-point shooter for 3rd and long/4th and 1, or the 9th inning, or the penalty kill.

[JasonIsDaMan [enjin:7981157]]

It also needs to be mentioned: If they pick up the T/O on Rudez, they only have 3 open roster spots. They are VERY thin at the 1, and if Pek doesn't come back, non-existent at the 5.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

So the whole board widely acknowledges that KAT, Dieng and KG are all 4's, without even mentioning whether or not Belly is a 3 or a 4, but the Wolves should...go out and sign more 4's?

Another problem: The NBA isn't the NFL. In the NFL, if you are running the ball, you send in running backs and blockers. If you are passing the ball, you send in receivers. It also isn't the MLB, where you start the game with a pitcher who throws 100 times, then three guys who throw 15-20 times each, and send up a different guy to hit for them because no one wants to see that. It also isn't the NHL, where you see Patrick Kane out there so you shoot the puck down the ice and replace the guys you have out there with your "checking line" without having to call timeout or having a stoppage in play.
The NBA is less about specialization and more about 36 minutes from your best 5 guys. That means you either teach Wiggins/Bazz to shoot the three, or you replace them, or decide that what they do bring is enough. You don't sign a 3-point shooter for 3rd and long/4th and 1, or the 9th inning, or the penalty kill.

Not sure there is consensus on that front. I personally think KAT can play 5 the vast majority of time and Dieng can do it some of the time, especially against bench 5s. KG is almost a non-factor since he'll play very limited minutes and no more than 50 games, if at all.

[JasonIsDaMan [enjin:7981157]]

So the whole board widely acknowledges that KAT, Dieng and KG are all 4's, without even mentioning whether or not Belly is a 3 or a 4, but the Wolves should...go out and sign more 4's?

Another problem: The NBA isn't the NFL. In the NFL, if you are running the ball, you send in running backs and blockers. If you are passing the ball, you send in receivers. It also isn't the MLB, where you start the game with a pitcher who throws 100 times, then three guys who throw 15-20 times each, and send up a different guy to hit for them because no one wants to see that. It also isn't the NHL, where you see Patrick Kane out there so you shoot the puck down the ice and replace the guys you have out there with your "checking line" without having to call timeout or having a stoppage in play.
The NBA is less about specialization and more about 36 minutes from your best 5 guys. That means you either teach Wiggins/Bazz to shoot the three, or you replace them, or decide that what they do bring is enough. You don't sign a 3-point shooter for 3rd and long/4th and 1, or the 9th inning, or the penalty kill.

Not sure there is consensus on that front. I personally think KAT can play 5 the vast majority of time and Dieng can do it some of the time, especially against bench 5s. KG is almost a non-factor since he'll play very limited minutes and no more than 50 games, if at all.

They both CAN play the 5, but their best position is the 4. As far as KG, there was an article a while back about how Doc Rivers figured out that KG was only good for 240 seconds of gametime at a time and then needed to be subbed. Doc Rivers once played Grant Hill about 100 minutes on a MIL/MIN back-to-back a month after his 47th ankle surgery. So if Doc can figure it out, I have confidence that other humans can as well. Like you sub KG for KAT/Dieng as soon as there is less than 4:00 in the quarter so KAT/Dieng get that time plus the end-of-quarter Timeout to rest.

[Monster]

So the whole board widely acknowledges that KAT, Dieng and KG are all 4's, without even mentioning whether or not Belly is a 3 or a 4, but the Wolves should...go out and sign more 4's?

Another problem: The NBA isn't the NFL. In the NFL, if you are running the ball, you send in running backs and blockers. If you are passing the ball, you send in receivers. It also isn't the MLB, where you start the game with a pitcher who throws 100 times, then three guys who throw 15-20 times each, and send up a different guy to hit for them because no one wants to see that. It also isn't the NHL, where you see Patrick Kane out there so you shoot the puck down the ice and replace the guys you have out there with your "checking line" without having to call timeout or having a stoppage in play.
The NBA is less about specialization and more about 36 minutes from your best 5 guys. That means you either teach Wiggins/Bazz to shoot the three, or you replace them, or decide that what they do bring is enough. You don't sign a 3-point shooter for 3rd and long/4th and 1, or the 9th inning, or the penalty kill.

Not sure there is consensus on that front. I personally think KAT can play 5 the vast majority of time and Dieng can do it some of the time, especially against bench 5s. KG is almost a non-factor since he'll play very limited minutes and no more than 50 games, if at all.

I do think Jason brings up some good points here Regardless of what position you think all those guys will play (I personally consider all them PF/C that you get the most out of them playing both positions) the reality is at this point the only bigs you can truly count on are Towns and Dieng. Pek could play zero games. KG? Who knows? Bjelica? He should be a factor and I really like him but he is still a question mark for various reasons. Payne? About the only thing he has been good for is staying healthy and sometimes when he is out on the floor you wish he wasn't healthy. Rudez if he were to come back is a pretty limited factor. The Wolves are spending a huge chunk of money on bigs but man they need some more possibly pretty badly. Maybe some help will come in the draft but if not they need at least a rotation big in FA.

[Monster]

Well, we aren't going to fix everything in one off-season. Here are several examples of things I would pursue....again, knowing we may only address a couple.

I would try to target the following:

1) Add bulk to Center position
- Target: Mozgov, Pachulia

2) Depth at PF spot
- Target: Marv Williams, Dwight Powell

3) Add 3-point shooting from wing spot
- Target: Crabbe, Dudley

4) PG depth:
- Lin, Dellavadova

You will notice I don't have any of the big names above. Guys like Horford, Barnes, Batum are all likely max guys....and I don't want to pay any of these guys max contracts. I love Horford's total game, but if we are paying a PF/C max money, he needs to be a dominant rebounder and defender, and Horford's rebounding game is deteriorating quickly. I would love a guy like Bazemore if he is reasonable as well.

I like your approach.

[Monster]

I don't want to jack your thread TeamRicky, but I can't even get to that point yet of which FA's to add or how to manage the cap. I'm waiting for a few things to clear up first. Specifically:

1.) Our lotto position. This will help clarify who we might be picking in the upcoming draft.

2.) Clean up the mess of Bigs. We have about $34M tied up in the under contract for next year: Towns, Dieng, Belly, KG, Pek and Payne. I certainly hope at least two of those guys are not on next year's roster. Payne could be an easy buyout. But it would be great if we'd get some insight from the new coach on KG/Pek. I think carrying one of those guys next year is okay. But IMO carrying more than one of Pek/KG/Payne handicaps our roster and could affect FA signings of other Bigs.

3.) Long term planning. It's easy to just post "grab this max guy" or "trade for that max guy" on message boards. But how many top tier Free Agents have the Wolves actually signed over their 27 year history? And aside from Wiggins/Towns - who on our team has big enough trade value to bring back a max player? Some will say "package our pick" and add someone like Bazz. But I just don't see any such big moves being made. I think it's far more likely we get some mid-level/rotation depth. Specifically, guys who Thibbs has relationships with from prior stops which he can use to help implement his system. I think bigger moves will happen farther down the road after Thibbs has had more time to evaluate the team he inherited.

I agree with a lot of what you said here. I'm sorta putting my FA talk on hold till at least a few days from now when we see what pick we have but really that draft pick could significantly alter what direction we go in so many different ways.