TeamRicky wrote:Jerry Zgoda ?@JerryZgoda
Add big men Jakob Poeltl from Utah and Stephen Zimmerman from UNLV to list of players interviewed by Minnesota in Chicago.
I want nothing to do with Poelti in the top 10.
I agree! I've never been impressed the few times I've seen Poeltl play. Sabonis dominated him when they went head to head this past season. His stats were good, but nothing stood o it as exceptional. For example, 9.1 boards per game is good, but for a 7-footer in college in his conference it doesn't stand out as something that suggests he'll be a particularly good rebounder in the NBA. Contrast that with Saboinis's nearly 12 boards per game. Then I noticed that Poeltl's overhead reach is only 8'9.5. That's really deficient for an NBA center or even an NBA PF. At a height of 7'0 he clearly has extremely short arms. I'll be very disappointed if we end up with Poeltl. Trading down and taking Saboinis is something that intrigues me, depending on who we get as part of the trade.
I'm conflicted on Poeltl but I hesitate to dismiss him because of his size and his production as a pretty young player.
Lip sometimes I don't get these overhead reach numbers and now looking at Poeltl's measurements this is another WTF example. First of all does he play basketball is ballet flats or something? 7' .25" without shoes and 7'1" with shoes. That's not much of a lift he should have borrows some shoes from Kevin Love. Lo So let's start with that we have a guy that's legit over 7' with no shoes which quite frankly isn't really all that common. Next he has a 7' 2.5" wingspan so based on that measurement he does not have short arms. How in the hell does a guy that big not have an overhead reach of more than 9'? It makes no sense. I'm not saying the guy is a great pick but that overhead reach may not be a reason to dismiss him based on the other numbers. It's just weird.
Edit: At this point on Poeltl I lean towards taking a different player especially one of the shooters unless maybe the Wolves drop down the 7 or 8 or something which could change the conversation possibly significantly maybe make it more interesting to trade down or hell just take Sabonis who seems to be a guy everyone on this board would love to get. I'd bet on finding a complimentary big in the 2nd round either a college player or international or get a FA. Those guys seem easier to find than shooters.
Monster -- I height with shoes because it doesn't work for comparing players given the many different shoes available. The overhead reach is measured without shoes. That measurement and wingspan are the only two length measurements that matter. For a center, overhead reach is the most important. Poeltl's wing stand isn't impressive either. The fact that his wingspan is proportionately a bit larger than his overhead reach is probably a function of the width of his frame.
But again, a 7'2 wingspan isn't impressive for an NBA center and Poeltl's 8'9.5 overhead reach is downright terrible. Even if that measurement is off, I doubt it's off by 3 inches, which would put him at 9'0.5 - a reach that is still small for an NBA center. But more important to me is his 9 rebounds per game. That's underwhelming for a center as a top 5 or even a top 10 pick.
lipoli390 wrote:Monster -- I height with shoes because it doesn't work for comparing players given the many different shoes available. The overhead reach is measured without shoes. That measurement and wingspan are the only two length measurements that matter. For a center, overhead reach is the most important. Poeltl's wing stand isn't impressive either. The fact that his wingspan is proportionately a bit larger than his overhead reach is probably a function of the width of his frame.
But again, a 7'2 wingspan isn't impressive for an NBA center and Poeltl's 8'9.5 overhead reach is downright terrible. Even if that measurement is off, I doubt it's off by 3 inches, which would put him at 9'0.5 - a reach that is still small for an NBA center. But more important to me is his 9 rebounds per game. That's underwhelming for a center as a top 5 or even a top 10 pick.
Maybe I didn't state my point very clear but Poeltl's overhead reach (and my point wasn't just about him) just doesn't make sense. How can Poeltl a guy that's over 4" taller and an inch longer wingspan have a slightly lower overheard reach than Derrick Williams? It's just strange you know what I am sayin? I'm sure there could be some simple bio-mechanics to explain in but my point is that from the info we have it doesn't add up. I mean just watching him he doesn't look like he is that long either but how does that work?
Of course the bottom line with Poeltl is that there are plenty of reasons to question Poeltl as a prospect and like you said even if his overheard reach was higher (even if it was 9'2" which is for an example .5" than what Dieng ischium again is still weird) that wouldn't magically make him that much more enticing because it would still be fairly average for a center.
Monster -- I see your point. I've never been too perpelexed by the different height/overhead reach ratios. Some guys have much longer arms than others. Poeltl has those short Euro arms. :). The differing overhead reach/wingspan ratios are a little more mysterious. But I've always attributed that to different body frames -- some guys wider at the shoulders than others.
Of course, Derrick Williams is a great example of how meaningless a good wingspan or overhead reach can be when a player lacks the things we can't easily measure.
lipoli390 wrote:Monster -- I see your point. I've never been too perpelexed by the different height/overhead reach ratios. Some guys have much longer arms than others. Poeltl has those short Euro arms. :). The differing overhead reach/wingspan ratios are a little more mysterious. But I've always attributed that to different body frames -- some guys wider at the shoulders than others.
Of course, Derrick Williams is a great example of how meaningless a good wingspan or overhead reach can when a player lacks the things we can't easily measure.
Those short "euro arms" seem to have worked pretty well for Sabonis so far. :) You are right ultimately the measurements are just a piece of the puzzle. I've always felt like they are worth consideration but skill and intangibles can overcome those deficiencies but of course the odds are still against them.
lipoli390 wrote:Monster -- I see your point. I've never been too perpelexed by the different height/overhead reach ratios. Some guys have much longer arms than others. Poeltl has those short Euro arms. :). The differing overhead reach/wingspan ratios are a little more mysterious. But I've always attributed that to different body frames -- some guys wider at the shoulders than others.
Of course, Derrick Williams is a great example of how meaningless a good wingspan or overhead reach can when a player lacks the things we can't easily measure.
Those short "euro arms" seem to have worked pretty well for Sabonis so far. :) You are right ultimately the measurements are just a piece of the puzzle. I've always felt like they are worth consideration but skill and intangibles can overcome those deficiencies but of course the odds are still against them.
I suspect Sabonis is skipping the combine to hide his Euro arms. Little does he know that Lip and Monster are on to him. :). His 12 boards per game underscores that there's knack for rebounding that some have and others don't. It's part instinct and part sheer determination. I don't think I'd take Sabonis top 5 by I'd definitely consider him in the top 10.
You don't pass on a prospect because of one measurement, especially standing reach. It's a wacky stat, though while it's helpful, sometimes it doesn't make sense nor does it determine if a player will be good or not at their respective position.
Joakim Noah: 8' 10.5"
Al Horford: 8' 11.0"
Blake Griffin: 8' 9.0"
Paul Millsap: 8' 9.5"
Kevin Love: 8' 10.0"
All of these standing reaches are below average. None of these players are poor rebounders.
I'll also add that you don't knock Poeltl for his standing reach (though he also measured in at 7'1 in shoes and weighs 239 lbs; both solid marks) while in the same breath ignoring his 17.2 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.6 BPG in 30.4 MPG with a .666 TS% line. The guy produced across the board at an efficient level on a winning team ( 26 - 8 ).
I'm still on the Poeltl train, and will be excited if he's the pick, but I just figured we'd add a big via FA and draft a perimeter player. Good to see Thibs and co. show some interest in the Austrian.
1. I wouldn't pass on someone over just one measurement. As I indicated, I wouldn't pass on Sabonis over what would probably be a relatively short overhead reach because his 12 boards per game are likely more predictive of his success as a rebounder in the NBA. But overhead reach has some predictive value when viewed in conjunction with other factors, including athleticism/leading ability and actual college production. Noah and Blake Griffin have great hops. Kevin Love has great strength, a super IQ and great knack for rebounding. Same for Milsap.
2. I did consider Poeltl's college stats. His stats are solid and I think he'll be a decent pro. But none of his stats stand out enough to suggest he'll be close to elite in anything unlike Sabonis who's 12 boards per game suggest he could be an elite NBA rebounder a la Paul Milsap.
3. Height has no value as a predictive stat. You don't block shots or rebound with your skull. Standing reach has value because it's the vertical edge you have standing flat-footed with your hands extended where they'd be when attempting to rebound or block a shot. Vertical leap matters as well, but so does lower body strength, which a player uses to hold position. And again, if you're pulling down 12 boards a game in college I'm intrigued even if your standing reach is a bit below average.
I also think it's interesting that you're giving Sabonis big credit for 12 RPG and overlooking Poeltl's 9 RPG even though the difference in conference strength is ridiculous. The Pac-12 finished with the 3rd-highest RPI rating in the NCAA whereas the West Coast Conference didn't rank in the top-32, and that's not surprising because the makeup of the conference includes: Gonzaga, BYU, Loyola Marymount, Pacific, Pepperdine, Portland, Saint Mary's, San Diego, San Francisco, and Santa Clara. It's hard to get excited about that. That's where the bulk of Sabonis' stats came from.
I'm not discrediting Sabonis' production and I've said many times that I like him, but Poeltl's numbers are more impressive to me, mainly because he did it against good teams over the course of the season. Six teams in the Pac-12 had 20+ wins or more. Nine out of 12 teams were .500 or better. Outside of Gonzaga, BYU, and Saint Mary's, the West Coast Conference was trash.
