Zgoda's Chat Today

[JasonIsDaMan [enjin:7981157]]

I wasn't sure what your point was, Jason. Pretty silly to think that all organizations in every case never make their draft decisions more than a week before the draft. In fact, I would think a good organization has its draft board pretty well set a week or two before the draft. Flip knew he was taking Towns more than a week before the draft even though he started out preferring Okafor. What organizations may not have a good handle on is what teams in front of them are likely to do. I asked Flip who he'd take among those he expected to be available when we were up. He said Zach, without hesitation. I asked him who he'd take if Zach wasn't available. Again, without hesitation he said Stauskus. Not sure whether Stauskus is a Duffy client. Thankfully, we didn't end up with him.

We have to get to a point where just because Flip didn't publicly say "Why yes, yes I do bend over backwards to sign and/or draft my college roommates' clients.", and the overwhelming evidence says he did, doesn't it mean it didn't happen. If we wait for a confession for everything off-kilter in this world before we are honest about it, we are going to be disappointed.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

On other teams, I think a LaVine and the 5th for Jimmy Butler would be a fair trade. LaVine has shown great potential, but really didn't consistently do so until the end of last year, and advanced stats suggest his impact is not (yet) as spectacular as his dunks. And the 5th pick in the draft doesn't look that great this year. Meanwhile, Jimmy Butler is a legit two-time All-Star who plays both sides of the ball, he's only 26, so he's just entering his prime, and he's locked in to 3 more years at pre-salary-cap-jump salary. It's 17-19 million, which seems like a lot now, but it won't in a year. He's got a 4th year player option for under 20.

BUT as others have pointed out, I don't think it quite makes the most sense for us, particularly because of 3 point shooting. Rubio, Wiggins, and Butler would be a very good defensive backcourt, but where would the 3 point shooting come from? Unless Butler got back to his form from 14-15 and Wiggins got a lot better, it would really hurt us. So for us, I wouldn't trade LaVine and the 5 for Butler.

What's weird is actually how similar Butler and Wiggins are. Butler has better handles and is a better passer and (I'd say) defender as well. But Wiggins is more athletic and is younger so his upside is probably higher (and has the benefit of being on a rookie contract, so he'll be easier to keep).

Chicago seems like a mess right now and seem open to dealing Butler if the situation were right. Just for the sake of conversation, if Chicago called and offered Butler and Mirotic or McDermott for WIGGINS and the 5th, how much would you think about that? It probably wouldn't happen because of the bad blood with Thibs, but it's interesting to speculate about this stuff. Personally, I'm not as sold on Wiggins reaching his full potential, so a trade like this would make me think a bit, UNLESS I heard from lots of players that it would screw our chemistry.

That's the wildcard on this team. We actually seem to have good chemistry for the first time in years. I'd be really wary about making any trades that might upset that. So ultimately, I'd probably listen to the Butler and M or M offer for Wiggins and the 5th, but decline.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I wouldn't do it Drew. I like Butler a lot and think he's currently a better two-way player than Wiggins and might remain so for another season or two.

And while Butler may always be a more gritty and better defender, I don't see that gap as wide as the offensive gap will likely be eventually, in Wiggins favor.

It took Butler 3 years at Marquette and 4 years at Chicago just to get to the 20 PPG mark. He's had to work his butt off just to get to the point he's at now.

Well, after one year at Kansas and one year in the NBA, Wiggins is already a 20 PPG scorer. Imagine what he'll be in Year 4 or 5, which is typically when top-flight scorers hit their stride. While his efficiency was a big concern as a rookie and through the 1st half of last year, he really started to improve his 3-point shot in the second half of last season and ended the year with an OK-ish TS% of .540.

Again, it's just hard to conjure up scenarios where Butler works here. It ends up either being a conflict in roles and/or an uneven trade for one side or the other.

[Monster]

On other teams, I think a LaVine and the 5th for Jimmy Butler would be a fair trade. LaVine has shown great potential, but really didn't consistently do so until the end of last year, and advanced stats suggest his impact is not (yet) as spectacular as his dunks. And the 5th pick in the draft doesn't look that great this year. Meanwhile, Jimmy Butler is a legit two-time All-Star who plays both sides of the ball, he's only 26, so he's just entering his prime, and he's locked in to 3 more years at pre-salary-cap-jump salary. It's 17-19 million, which seems like a lot now, but it won't in a year. He's got a 4th year player option for under 20.

BUT as others have pointed out, I don't think it quite makes the most sense for us, particularly because of 3 point shooting. Rubio, Wiggins, and Butler would be a very good defensive backcourt, but where would the 3 point shooting come from? Unless Butler got back to his form from 14-15 and Wiggins got a lot better, it would really hurt us. So for us, I wouldn't trade LaVine and the 5 for Butler.

What's weird is actually how similar Butler and Wiggins are. Butler has better handles and is a better passer and (I'd say) defender as well. But Wiggins is more athletic and is younger so his upside is probably higher (and has the benefit of being on a rookie contract, so he'll be easier to keep).

Chicago seems like a mess right now and seem open to dealing Butler if the situation were right. Just for the sake of conversation, if Chicago called and offered Butler and Mirotic or McDermott for WIGGINS and the 5th, how much would you think about that? It probably wouldn't happen because of the bad blood with Thibs, but it's interesting to speculate about this stuff. Personally, I'm not as sold on Wiggins reaching his full potential, so a trade like this would make me think a bit, UNLESS I heard from lots of players that it would screw our chemistry.

That's the wildcard on this team. We actually seem to have good chemistry for the first time in years. I'd be really wary about making any trades that might upset that. So ultimately, I'd probably listen to the Butler and M or M offer for Wiggins and the 5th, but decline.

Jon K was on Berreiro this week and said from all his sources he said it looks extremely unlikely that Butler gets dealt. He said it might take Wiggins and 5 to get him and that might not even be a deal Chicago would accept. He also said he would maybe at the end of the day do that deal because Butler is so good right now but he said that its really true that right now Towns Wiggins and Lavine really like each other get along and it would be hard to break that up. I don't think Butler is going anywhere and If Jon K. says its that unlikely I'll consider it time to move on to a topic more likely to happen but that's just me.

Also I'll say this last thing about Butler being locked in for 3 more years...that time goes by pretty fast it's really not that long IMO. Of course you can say that about just about every player but it's something to consider.

[Monster]

On reflection, it was 9 days before the draft that Flip told me he planning to take LaVine if he was still available. :) I asked for his next preference after LaVine. He said Stauskus. He never mentioned Payne. The only point I had in mind was that Zgoda's tweet that the Wolves were going to select Payne minutes before the Wolves ended up taking LaVine underscores Zgoda's complete lack inside information and his willingness to make bold declarations as if he does have information.

I'd disagree a bit with Monster's comment that he's sure Zgoda gets some inside information. I'm not so sure. In fact, I don't think he gets any. Doggie gets some inside info, but not much. Jon K gets a lot of inside info.

It will be interesting to see if things change for Jon or Doogie under the new regime. Flip really trusted Jon K. I hope the new regime has the same trust in him. Jon is a great reporter and a really good guy.

Lip you can't be a beat writer for the Wolves at the paper that is owned by the team's owner and get zero insider info and Zgoda does do some work. We can agree that he clearly does not get the type of access he should given all his advantages especially over a guy like Doogie who basically works his ass off trying to make a career for himself. I think the only reason I sorta like Zgoda at all (besides him being a human being) is he looks like the host on the food network "Chopped" and I like that guy for some reason. Lol

Also I think a guy like Jon K will get access. I think he is likely well known around the league and media as a guy that's good at his job. I think Thibs and Layden will end up finding him a guy to trust. Obviously they will probably not be calling texting Jon at all hours of the night so he may not get as much info as Flip but I think Thibs has some connections to this market already going on all the shows etc. he seemed comfortable on the Barreiro show the times he called in there. I sense he knew All about how Flip had that relationship there.

[Lipoli390]

Monster -- Yes, Barreiro was another media guy Flip trusted and confided in. I know a bit about the Wolves organization and Glen Taylor through people I know. One thing for sure is that Glen won't let his ownership of the Strib affect who gets inside information from the basketball ops people. The people who get information will be those whothe top basketball ops people (Thibs and Layden) like and trust. Part of who they trust will turn on what they here from people who've been in the Wolves organization.

As you pointed out, it seems that Thibs has already connected with Barreiro and that is likely based in large part on what Thibs has heard from Glen, maybe Flip before he passed and others in the organization. Thibs is actually a good friend of someone high up in the organization who I talk to quite a bit. I agree that Jon K will become a trusted media guy if he isn't already with the Wolves front office. I like the way Doogie works it and he does get a tidbit every now and then. But I have never seen an example of Zgoda having any inside info at any point since Glen purchased the Strib on July 1, 2014 or before.

[Lipoli390]

I agree that the report from Jon K on the the low probability of a Butler deal should probably put that topic to rest. That's a good thing in my view. Thibs has never been a front office executive. And Layden's last stint as the top guy in NY was a disaster. I'd like to believe that Thibs will exibit good judgment and that Layden learned a lot in is tenure with the Spurs. The Wolves are in great shape going forward. Other than injuries, the only thing that could derail the team's otherwise inevitable climb to contention would be dumb, short-sighted moves by our new front office.

Breaking up our core three (KAT, Wiggins and LaVine) at this juncture would be the sort of move that could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. We've seen Butler's best and it was a long road for him to get there. We're seen recently signs that his body may be breaking down. Wiggins and Zach both have youth and HUGE upside. They also have great chemistry together. Zach has the makings of a 3-point assassin who hits big shots late in games and he has all the tools to develop a deadly dribble drive game and become a good defender. Wiggins, as Flip told me, has the potential to be a top 5 player in the League.

So let's keep this young core together and sign Noah or Deng along with a veteran PG who, unlike Miller, still has some game left. By young core, I mean KAT, Wiggins, Zach and Gorgui. For now, I also mean Ricky although I could see dealing him after this season. I'm ok with dealing Bazz this summer if we get a good deal for him. Then let Thib's do what he's being paid very big money to do -- i.e, coach them up.

Flip proved that we could trust his judgment as PBO. It remains to be seen whether Thibs and Layden have equal or better judgment.

[Monster]

Monster -- Yes, Barreiro was another media guy Flip trusted and confided in. I know a bit about the Wolves organization and Glen Taylor through people I know. One thing for sure is that Glen won't let his ownership of the Strib affect who gets inside information from the basketball ops people. The people who get information will be those whothe top basketball ops people (Thibs and Layden) like and trust. Part of who they trust will turn on what they here from people who've been in the Wolves organization.

As you pointed out, it seems that Thibs has already connected with Barreiro and that is likely based in large part on what Thibs has heard from Glen, maybe Flip before he passed and others in the organization. Thibs is actually a good friend of someone high up in the organization who I talk to quite a bit. I agree that Jon K will become a trusted media guy if he isn't already with the Wolves front office. I like the way Doogie works it and he does get a tidbit every now and then. But I have never seen an example of Zgoda having any inside info at any point since Glen purchased the Strib on July 1, 2014 or before.

I was sorta joking about the star tribune connection and more making the point that Zgoda obviously has quite the privilege and he gets very little out of it but I can't imagine he doesn't get some sort of worthwhile info from somewhere because of his job but I'm splitting hairs when we all agree Jerry is subpar at best although based on what I've read over the years plenty of markets have at least one Zgoda and some of them may actually be even worse!

[Monster]

I agree that the report from Jon K on the the low probability of a Butler deal should probably put that topic to rest. That's a good thing in my view. Thibs has never been a front office executive. And Layden's last stint as the top guy in NY was a disaster. I'd like to believe that Thibs will exibit good judgment and that Layden learned a lot in is tenure with the Spurs. The Wolves are in great shape going forward. Other than injuries, the only thing that could derail the team's otherwise inevitable climb to contention would be dumb, short-sighted moves by our new front office.

Breaking up our core three (KAT, Wiggins and LaVine) at this juncture would be the sort of move that could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. We've seen Butler's best and it was a long road for him to get there. We're seen recently signs that his body may be breaking down. Wiggins and Zach both have youth and HUGE upside. They also have great chemistry together. Zach has the makings of a 3-point assassin who hits big shots late in games and he has all the tools to develop a deadly dribble drive game and become a good defender. Wiggins, as Flip told me, has the potential to be a top 5 player in the League.

So let's keep this young core together and sign Noah or Deng along with a veteran PG who, unlike Miller, still has some game left. By young core, I mean KAT, Wiggins, Zach and Gorgui. For now, I also mean Ricky although I could see dealing him after this season. I'm ok with dealing Bazz this summer if we get a good deal for him. Then let Thib's do what he's being paid very big money to do -- i.e, coach them up.

Flip proved that we could trust his judgment as PBO. It remains to be seen whether Thibs and Layden have equal or better judgment.

I totally agree with all that. Personally I think Layden and Thibs are going to be more patient than people think. When Jon K was on with Barriero he said this pick and what they do with it will indicate how quickly Thibs and Layden are wanting to compete. I thought that was telling because the less connected guys have been saying better chance they trade the pick. Jon has said he thinks it makes sense to trade the pick but saying he is interested to see what they do makes me think the other people assuming they shop the pick might not know anything and are just guessing. Its Thibs and Layden's job to explore all options but (I'm biased toward building through the draft particularly in this case) I haven't heard anything they have said public ally that makes me think they are leaning towards dealing the pick.