longstrangetrip wrote:Cam, your argument that the Wolves will likely not be in as good a position in future summers as this summer to lure a big fish is valid. The problem is: what happens in 3-4 years when our big three demand their max or near max contracts? Yes, the salary cap is going up, but max contracts also go up proportionally (25-30% of the cap), and 4 max or near max players will put the Wolves well over the luxury tax...and Glen and his ownership group don't want that. Do the math:
Horford: 30% of the cap
Wig and KAT: each 25% of the cap (because they will not be 8-year players)
LaVine: say, no max but still 20% of the cap
That's 100% of the cap spent on 4 out of 15 players! Add in Rubio and Gorgui, maybe Shabazz, Belly, and a bunch of role players who also need to get paid, and the Wolves will be in a terrible luxury tax predicament.
Now, you may be saying "Glen is a billionaire...he's not going to worry about a luxury tax if he can win a championship or two". I think that's partially right, but even a billionaire is going to try to avoid such an onerous tax (look it up to see how awful it can be).
But the real issue is Glen's minority owners. After two more came on board last week (I believe this is now public information) at 15-20%, that leaves them at 5 relatively significant minority owners representing over a third of the ownership (Debbie Saunders has decided to not sell Flip's interest). While the minority owners are also wealthy, they aren't "Glen wealthy", and they are not going to be on board with any luxury tax. Luxury tax puts the Wolves into a serious cash flow situation, and would certainly lead to capital call from all owners, and everyone (including Glen) would have to visit their banker to cover a capital call. You might argue: "Big deal...so they borrow a little more now. They get it all back when they eventually sell". But it's not that easy. I can assure you that it is a scary thing for these minority owners to borrow more, when they recognize that at any time an impulsive and stubborn ownership or player group can decide to strike...and a long-term strike could significantly impact the value of these franchises. Who knows...Glen maybe even had to make some assurances to the now owners who joined the group last week that the team would never get into a luxury tax situation, and thus it would be unlikely that there will be any future capital calls.
Thibs/Leyden may want to bring on a max deal this summer as part of a win-now strategy, but no deals can happen without Glen signing off. And I think Glen's focus will be on keeping his powder dry enough to be able to sign his three studs at the end of their rookie deals if they reach their ceilngs...without having to play luxury tax.
I'm a bit confused by this LST. We would have Bird rights on all of these young guys. So as long as we are generally under the cap we will sign all of our guys with exemptions. It only limits our ability for future FA's as I see it, apart from the mid level exemptions. But let's cross that bridge when we get there. As you rightly pointed out we have no idea what the financial future will be. But I say that is exactly why we don't save money now. I am sure that if anything the owners will try to maintain the abilty to keep their players in the CBA. This has been in place since the 80s and generally isn't going anywhere. If anything the players are going to try to push the nature of the cap in negotiations and make it more palatable for us/ The luxury tax is trying to get at teams that are constantly taking on new salary, one player wont change that for us.
You're right, doper, that having Bird rights gives us the right to retain all these players if we want. But you only have to look at OkC a few years ago for the problem. They had the right to retain all 3 of their Big 3, but they also knew that three max salaries plus pieces they would need to win a championship would put them into the luxury tax...so they gave Harden up for almost nothing. Now if KAT, Wig and Zach all reach their very high ceilings, the Wolves could already find themselves in an OkC situation without even adding Horford, but certainly entering into a free agent max contract now is going to guarantee problems down the road (unless our 3 young studs flame out, and who wants to think of that).
Crossing that bridge when we get there makes some sense because of the uncertainty of the future (i.e we don't know that our young guys will get anywhere near their ceilings), but Glen has to anticipate everything that might happen so that he doesn't have to either force a capital call on his investors or pull a James Harden release move on one of our Big 3.
I get your point that is why glen has to understand the ramifications if we sign horford that he will have to go into the tax for 1 year. Also I think OKC realizes they screwed up, they still have 3 max contacts in kanter, Durant and Westbrook and a high contact in ibaka. If they were to do it over I bet they pay Harden over Kanter for that 3rd max
Well I could have told them that back then. Lol The other thing that made it look bad was Perkins flamed out gloriously. He went from being a really nice value useful center to not that great to afterthought on playoff teams. And get this...he is only 31. On top of that they ended up letting Sefelosha go too. Now I think they have done ok in replacing Sefelosha (Roberson was acquired using a pick they got from Houston) and they got Stephen Adams in a pick from Houston as well so that doesn't equal Harden but it's not nothing. The real legit issue was there wasn't enough balls for Durant. Westbrook and Harden. I wanted to see them give it a try but that looks like it would have been tough. That's why I think the Wolves are in good shape with their young guys. The compliment and are willing to defer to each other based on what we have seen.
Well, our situation is better, in my opinion, because one of our three young stars is a big man. That, to me, is the difference-maker. It's really hard to please three stars that operate on the perimeter because, as we all know, there's only one ball and their biggest strengths involve creating shots.
longstrangetrip wrote:Cam, your argument that the Wolves will likely not be in as good a position in future summers as this summer to lure a big fish is valid. The problem is: what happens in 3-4 years when our big three demand their max or near max contracts? Yes, the salary cap is going up, but max contracts also go up proportionally (25-30% of the cap), and 4 max or near max players will put the Wolves well over the luxury tax...and Glen and his ownership group don't want that. Do the math:
Horford: 30% of the cap
Wig and KAT: each 25% of the cap (because they will not be 8-year players)
LaVine: say, no max but still 20% of the cap
That's 100% of the cap spent on 4 out of 15 players! Add in Rubio and Gorgui, maybe Shabazz, Belly, and a bunch of role players who also need to get paid, and the Wolves will be in a terrible luxury tax predicament.
Now, you may be saying "Glen is a billionaire...he's not going to worry about a luxury tax if he can win a championship or two". I think that's partially right, but even a billionaire is going to try to avoid such an onerous tax (look it up to see how awful it can be).
But the real issue is Glen's minority owners. After two more came on board last week (I believe this is now public information) at 15-20%, that leaves them at 5 relatively significant minority owners representing over a third of the ownership (Debbie Saunders has decided to not sell Flip's interest). While the minority owners are also wealthy, they aren't "Glen wealthy", and they are not going to be on board with any luxury tax. Luxury tax puts the Wolves into a serious cash flow situation, and would certainly lead to capital call from all owners, and everyone (including Glen) would have to visit their banker to cover a capital call. You might argue: "Big deal...so they borrow a little more now. They get it all back when they eventually sell". But it's not that easy. I can assure you that it is a scary thing for these minority owners to borrow more, when they recognize that at any time an impulsive and stubborn ownership or player group can decide to strike...and a long-term strike could significantly impact the value of these franchises. Who knows...Glen maybe even had to make some assurances to the now owners who joined the group last week that the team would never get into a luxury tax situation, and thus it would be unlikely that there will be any future capital calls.
Thibs/Leyden may want to bring on a max deal this summer as part of a win-now strategy, but no deals can happen without Glen signing off. And I think Glen's focus will be on keeping his powder dry enough to be able to sign his three studs at the end of their rookie deals if they reach their ceilngs...without having to play luxury tax.
I'm a bit confused by this LST. We would have Bird rights on all of these young guys. So as long as we are generally under the cap we will sign all of our guys with exemptions. It only limits our ability for future FA's as I see it, apart from the mid level exemptions. But let's cross that bridge when we get there. As you rightly pointed out we have no idea what the financial future will be. But I say that is exactly why we don't save money now. I am sure that if anything the owners will try to maintain the abilty to keep their players in the CBA. This has been in place since the 80s and generally isn't going anywhere. If anything the players are going to try to push the nature of the cap in negotiations and make it more palatable for us/ The luxury tax is trying to get at teams that are constantly taking on new salary, one player wont change that for us.
You're right, doper, that having Bird rights gives us the right to retain all these players if we want. But you only have to look at OkC a few years ago for the problem. They had the right to retain all 3 of their Big 3, but they also knew that three max salaries plus pieces they would need to win a championship would put them into the luxury tax...so they gave Harden up for almost nothing. Now if KAT, Wig and Zach all reach their very high ceilings, the Wolves could already find themselves in an OkC situation without even adding Horford, but certainly entering into a free agent max contract now is going to guarantee problems down the road (unless our 3 young studs flame out, and who wants to think of that).
Crossing that bridge when we get there makes some sense because of the uncertainty of the future (i.e we don't know that our young guys will get anywhere near their ceilings), but Glen has to anticipate everything that might happen so that he doesn't have to either force a capital call on his investors or pull a James Harden release move on one of our Big 3.
I get your point that is why glen has to understand the ramifications if we sign horford that he will have to go into the tax for 1 year. Also I think OKC realizes they screwed up, they still have 3 max contacts in kanter, Durant and Westbrook and a high contact in ibaka. If they were to do it over I bet they pay Harden over Kanter for that 3rd max
I'm not sure if it would be for just one year, kek. As optimistic as I am about the Wolves, teams with most of their firepower in the young 20's don't often win championships...you need a few stars in that sweet spot of 26-30. That's why I think the Wolves are 4-6 years away from challenging for a championship. They would likely be in the luxury tax and playing very good basketball in Horford's 4th year, and probably going a couple rounds into the playoffs. What does Glen do then? There would be a lot of pressure to re-sign Horford, and if he's still playing very well at 33, that wouldn't be a cheap contract. Result? More years of luxury tax. That's what I think Glen is concerned with down the road.
This young Wolves' core has the chance to win multiple championships if they take a long-term view with respect to the cap. Now, one thing that could help them become a dynasty would be if one of their max guys decided championships were more important than more millions, and gave a home town discount. How do you think the Spurs were able to pay Kawhi and bring in LMA? Because Duncan, Ginobili and West decided they had made more money than they could ever spend, and agreed to play for less than $10 million...combined! But you can't count on a player doing that, so you have to plan as if each player is going to try to get all he can get.
longstrangetrip wrote:Cam, your argument that the Wolves will likely not be in as good a position in future summers as this summer to lure a big fish is valid. The problem is: what happens in 3-4 years when our big three demand their max or near max contracts? Yes, the salary cap is going up, but max contracts also go up proportionally (25-30% of the cap), and 4 max or near max players will put the Wolves well over the luxury tax...and Glen and his ownership group don't want that. Do the math:
Horford: 30% of the cap
Wig and KAT: each 25% of the cap (because they will not be 8-year players)
LaVine: say, no max but still 20% of the cap
That's 100% of the cap spent on 4 out of 15 players! Add in Rubio and Gorgui, maybe Shabazz, Belly, and a bunch of role players who also need to get paid, and the Wolves will be in a terrible luxury tax predicament.
Now, you may be saying "Glen is a billionaire...he's not going to worry about a luxury tax if he can win a championship or two". I think that's partially right, but even a billionaire is going to try to avoid such an onerous tax (look it up to see how awful it can be).
But the real issue is Glen's minority owners. After two more came on board last week (I believe this is now public information) at 15-20%, that leaves them at 5 relatively significant minority owners representing over a third of the ownership (Debbie Saunders has decided to not sell Flip's interest). While the minority owners are also wealthy, they aren't "Glen wealthy", and they are not going to be on board with any luxury tax. Luxury tax puts the Wolves into a serious cash flow situation, and would certainly lead to capital call from all owners, and everyone (including Glen) would have to visit their banker to cover a capital call. You might argue: "Big deal...so they borrow a little more now. They get it all back when they eventually sell". But it's not that easy. I can assure you that it is a scary thing for these minority owners to borrow more, when they recognize that at any time an impulsive and stubborn ownership or player group can decide to strike...and a long-term strike could significantly impact the value of these franchises. Who knows...Glen maybe even had to make some assurances to the now owners who joined the group last week that the team would never get into a luxury tax situation, and thus it would be unlikely that there will be any future capital calls.
Thibs/Leyden may want to bring on a max deal this summer as part of a win-now strategy, but no deals can happen without Glen signing off. And I think Glen's focus will be on keeping his powder dry enough to be able to sign his three studs at the end of their rookie deals if they reach their ceilngs...without having to play luxury tax.
I'm a bit confused by this LST. We would have Bird rights on all of these young guys. So as long as we are generally under the cap we will sign all of our guys with exemptions. It only limits our ability for future FA's as I see it, apart from the mid level exemptions. But let's cross that bridge when we get there. As you rightly pointed out we have no idea what the financial future will be. But I say that is exactly why we don't save money now. I am sure that if anything the owners will try to maintain the abilty to keep their players in the CBA. This has been in place since the 80s and generally isn't going anywhere. If anything the players are going to try to push the nature of the cap in negotiations and make it more palatable for us/ The luxury tax is trying to get at teams that are constantly taking on new salary, one player wont change that for us.
You're right, doper, that having Bird rights gives us the right to retain all these players if we want. But you only have to look at OkC a few years ago for the problem. They had the right to retain all 3 of their Big 3, but they also knew that three max salaries plus pieces they would need to win a championship would put them into the luxury tax...so they gave Harden up for almost nothing. Now if KAT, Wig and Zach all reach their very high ceilings, the Wolves could already find themselves in an OkC situation without even adding Horford, but certainly entering into a free agent max contract now is going to guarantee problems down the road (unless our 3 young studs flame out, and who wants to think of that).
Crossing that bridge when we get there makes some sense because of the uncertainty of the future (i.e we don't know that our young guys will get anywhere near their ceilings), but Glen has to anticipate everything that might happen so that he doesn't have to either force a capital call on his investors or pull a James Harden release move on one of our Big 3.
I get your point that is why glen has to understand the ramifications if we sign horford that he will have to go into the tax for 1 year. Also I think OKC realizes they screwed up, they still have 3 max contacts in kanter, Durant and Westbrook and a high contact in ibaka. If they were to do it over I bet they pay Harden over Kanter for that 3rd max
I'm not sure if it would be for just one year, kek. As optimistic as I am about the Wolves, teams with most of their firepower in the young 20's don't often win championships...you need a few stars in that sweet spot of 26-30. That's why I think the Wolves are 4-6 years away from challenging for a championship. They would likely be in the luxury tax and playing very good basketball in Horford's 4th year, and probably going a couple rounds into the playoffs. What does Glen do then? There would be a lot of pressure to re-sign Horford, and if he's still playing very well at 33, that wouldn't be a cheap contract. Result? More years of luxury tax. That's what I think Glen is concerned with down the road.
This young Wolves' core has the chance to win multiple championships if they take a long-term view with respect to the cap. Now, one thing that could help them become a dynasty would be if one of their max guys decided championships were more important than more millions, and gave a home town discount. How do you think the Spurs were able to pay Kawhi and bring in LMA? Because Duncan, Ginobili and West decided they had made more money than they could ever spend, and agreed to play for less than $10 million...combined! But you can't count on a player doing that, so you have to plan as if each player is going to try to get all he can get.
monsterpile wrote:Thanks LST for that breakdown. That was very interesting. We often don't think about some of the minority owners.
I fond it interesting too, monster. Glen is a very smart guy, and is making the right business move as he always does. The Timberwolves are a higher percentage of his net worth than they were when he bought them, so he's basically re-balancing his investment portfolio by selling another 15-20% of the team. He's essentially cashing out some of his winnings, but still keeping enough of his chips in the game to profit from future increase in franchise value. He's already recovered his original investment and is now playing with the casino's money! The new investors have no interest in controlling the team eventually like Kaplan did...these guys are only making an investment for financial reasons. But minority owners need some protection since they aren't able to exercise any control. So I expect the last couple weeks were full of negotiations about price, exit formula, and possibility of capital calls.
We often complain that free agents won't come here... Well, this is part of the reason why. The thinking that we're not ready to land a marquee player, to me, is bad news. You don't sign Al Horford and think, "Ahh, shit, this is gonna suck in four years. We'll have too much talent." You do it and be thrilled with it because you're becoming relevant again after 12 years of being an embarrassment to the league. This is how teams go from trash to tremendous. You assemble a young core, and at some point you make a splash of some kind in free agency. More likely than not, that recipe rings true. And most of the teams that have as young of a group as ours wouldn't think of being able to land a guy like Horford, yet here we are debating if it would be a mistake or not. This is the losing mentality that this franchise just can't have.
Camden0916 wrote:We often complain that free agents won't come here... Well, this is part of the reason why. The thinking that we're not ready to land a marquee player, to me, is bad news. You don't sign Al Horford and think, "Ahh, shit, this is gonna suck in four years. We'll have too much talent." You do it and be thrilled with it because you're becoming relevant again after 12 years of being an embarrassment to the league. This is how teams go from trash to tremendous. You assemble a young core, and at some point you make a splash of some kind in free agency. More likely than not, that recipe rings true. And most of the teams that have as young of a group as ours wouldn't think of being able to land a guy like Horford, yet here we are debating if it would be a mistake or not. This is the losing mentality that this franchise just can't have.
No Cam you got it all wrong it's pretty obvious that the Spurs were such morons for getting Aldridge...
Joking.
I think part of why some people are more or less on board with spending is there is varying degrees of how people value these FA. Cam is very high on Horford and understandably so but others have their hesitancy. I think that's legit too. I think what LST has brought up was worthwhile to the conversation as well. I still think if the Wolves could really get a top FA that they like and fit into what they want to come here they should make the move.
I wasn't keen on splashing out on a FA this offseason, but now we've got Thibs I'm all for it (for the right person).
Batum's my pick and I'd offer him a 3 year 54 million deal with no options. He just fits this team so well. Can shoot, defend, pass and is ONLY 27 yet brings that veteran experience we desperately need. He can also cover both wing positions.
KiwiMatt wrote:I wasn't keen on splashing out on a FA this offseason, but now we've got Thibs I'm all for it (for the right person).
Batum's my pick and I'd offer him a 3 year 54 million deal with no options. He just fits this team so well. Can shoot, defend, pass and is ONLY 27 yet brings that veteran experience we desperately need. He can also cover both wing positions.
Rubio - Wiggins - Batum - Towns - Dieng
LaVine 6th man
This isn't a bad route either, BUT I think LaVine needs to be accounted for as a starter. As a starter in 33 games, he averaged: 17.3 PPG (47.4 FG%, 44.4 3P%, 81.1 FT%), 3.2 APG and 2.8 RPG in 34.3 MPG. That's a guy in his second year, and as it has been noted by myself and others later in the season, his defense was much improved. I think Thibs will be good for him in that regard, and if he's even league average on defense, his offensive production will make him well worth being in the starting lineup.
Sorry but I don't understand the love for Al Horford on here. He's not the guy we need nor should offer a Max deal. I know you'll shove stats at me telling me otherwise, but I think he's overrated.
