lipoli390 wrote:longstrangetrip wrote:Here's a very well-written article about the five most difficult choices facing the Wolves this summer:
https://zonecoverage.com/2018/timberwolves/moore-the-five-pivot-points-of-the-minnesota-timberwolves-offseason/
Yes, an interesting article. Thanks for posting. One thing seems clear to me. Extending Butler this summer isn't realistic because it would require the Wolves to get temporarily below the salary cap, which means trimming $9 million in guaranteed contracts from the payroll. That's fine because I wouldn't want to commit to him yet anyway. I want to see how this team perform and how Butler holds up physically next season following his last knee surgery. He's played in 70 or more games only twice in his 7 year career. That's not a good track record of durability. Now that he's about to turn 29 after just undergoing meniscus surgery, I think it would be a mistake to commit long term to him at this point.
This is where Glen Taylor is going to have to assert himself and just say no because I suspect Thibodeau will be pushing to extend Butler this summer. I also suspect Thibodeau will be pushing to use at least part of the MLE to re-sign Rose and pushing to trade the first round pick we got for Rubio. Again, in my view, Glen needs to say no to all of the above. Thibodeau and his minions in the front office should be expected to draft a good young player with the 20th pick, sign a good rotation player with the MLE and land another decent veteran with the vet exception. If he can keep Rose at the vet minimum, that would be gravy.
I would also expect Thibodeau and his minions to make a major effort to move Gorgui, Teague or both in an effort to either avoid the luxury tax or improve the roster. But no matter how hard he tries, I can't see a realistic deal to move either of these two unless we also include our first round pick for this year or some future year and I would say no to any such deal. If I'm wrong is concluding that Teague is overpaid, then we won't have to give up a valuable asset like a first round pick to entice a team to trade for him.
I'd leave the door open to offers for Wiggins and I'd listen closely, but I wouldn't actively shop him.
The article omitted what I consider the most important priority for the Wolves front office this summer -- i.e., extending Karl Anthony Towns. He's the foundation for the franchise. Locking him up long term gives this franchise a longer term trajectory built around KAT. Extending KAT this summer would provide the foundation to re-sign Butler next summer if things go really well next season. It would also provide the foundation for retooling around KAT in the event Butler leaves as a free agent after next season.
It's a good article and Lip you have some good thoughts.
Do I think they will he aggressive looking for something with that #20 pick? Sure. Do I think they will find a deal that accomplished what they wan? I doubt they will. I think they will likely have their sights set pretty high. Thibs and Layden seemed to have valued drafts picks pretty high so far. We heard reports they were going to trade their pick for a vet and they drafted Dunn. When they traded their pick (and Dunn) they did it to get a top 20 player in Butler and they got another pick back in that draft. They dealt Rubio for a draft pick and then last offseason and last season did not move that for a vet. When talking about being aggressive Layden basically immediately brought up the Butler deal. Obviously they aren't getting a player that good with that pick but I'd guess they are going to be looking for a pretty solid/good player and or salary relief of moving Dieng. I just don't see how that's going to happen. The one deal that I could see happening is the ever popular Dieng for Bazemore but Bazemore makes more money than Dieng the next 2 years (assuming he opts in) so whether it accomplishes the takes of unloading salary and bringing in a better player for the team...eh sorta but not really. The team seems to be doing its due diligence on the draft as usual. One other possibility is the Wolves could offer Patton as a sweetener. I'm sure his value isn't high right now with his foot tissues but a rebuilding team might have interest in him and see him as a decent lottery ticket. It might be enough to get something done. I don't know enough about his injuries to say if I would do this or not. I'm just sayin.
I'm a bit worried about paying Rose more than the minimum but less worried than most people. Thibs and Layden seem like they know what everyone else does that they need versatile wings that can shoot and defend. Whatever they have of the midlevel has to be used on one of those guys. I think that they will actually be firm on not using the midlevel on Rose unless they absolutely strike out on everyone or something. That could happen but I bet someone takes that 5 or 8 million whatever we have.
What I am probably more worried about is whether Belly comes back. He is an important part of what this team needs going forward but he also isn't absolutely essential. How much does he want to come back? If he wants to be back I think he and the Wolves can get something done that makes sense for both sides. Jon K has said Belly has had some frustration with his role so...maybe he would look elsewhere. On the other hand I'm also guessing he might not be dying to move on from where he is at. It took him a while to get comfortable when he came over. Time will tell. If he isn't retained that's another hole to be filled and we just lost one of the best and largest volume shooters on the team. YIKES.
I just don't see Butler signing an extension this summer as realistic just because how much salary you would have to move. The other advanatage to doing it besides him being locked in is that doing a deal this summer would lock him in at a lower number than what he could get next summer which would be a pretty big advantageous doing it now. I'd guess if the Wolves had a reasonable way to get the extension done all parties including Glen would have interest in making it happen. I just don't see the path to doing it. This group valued Rubio enough to hold out for a 1st round pick for him and a guy like Teague that probably could be moved probably has move value to them right now than Rubio did.
Honestly I think this offseason is probably mostly going to be mostly boring with the intruige of whether Belly and Rose returns and who they get with the midlevel (and when the dust really settles the vet min and the draft picks.
Also people say Thibs won't play a young player. I think that's not quite true. He will play that guy if he thinks he can play. Don't be shocked if whoever they pick at #20 gets regular playing time especially depending on what happens with the rest of FA.
