Justin Patton v John Collins

[Lipoli390]

So the Wolves Summer League is over. I didn't see any NBA caliber players on our roster, except possibly Cook and Costello. That was somewhat disappointing, but the biggest disappointment was the fact that we didn't get to see Justin Patton in action because of his broken foot. I was really looking forward to seeing him against Summer League competition.

But I was able to watch a lot of John Collins playing for Atlanta's summer league team. Unfortunately, it reminded me of my disappointment in the Wolves decision to draft Patton instead of Collins. As those who read this message board know, I've been high on John college for quite a while and even talked about trading down and taking him. So I went back and looked against at Collins' stats and was reminded again why he should have been our pick at #16.

My bottom line is this. When evaluating draft prospects, there's not substitute for actual, verifiable performance. And there's no more reliable performance indicator of NBA potential than a player's college rebounding. John Collins averaged 9.8 rebounds in only 26.6 minutes per game and he did that in a power conference. Contrast that with Patton's 6.2 rebounds in 25.3 minutes. Although Patton is longer, his length advantage didn't translate into more blocks as both players had nearly identical blocks per game (Collins at 1.6, Patton at 1.4). And while Patton's calling card was highly efficient scoring (67.6% FG), Collins was almost as efficient hitting 62.2% of his field goals on a significantly higher volume of shots than Patton. Collins was also a much better free-throw shooter than Patton, hitting 74.5% of his free throws on 6.7 attempts per game. Patton was a horrific 51.7% free throw shooter on only 2.5 attempts per game.

In a nutshell, Collins was a much better scorer, rebounder and free throw shooter than Patton, was about as efficient a scorer as Patton and was a comparable shot-blocker. Collins is also a much better athlete with a 33" standing vertical and 37.5" max vertical compared to Patton's paltry 26" and 30.5" verticals. Oh, and Collins is a few months younger than Patton.

Collins looked terrific in Summer League. Yes, it's only summer league. But his consistently impressive performance rebounding and scoring tracks his stellar performance in college in those two areas. Patton may turn out to be as good or better as an NBA player 5 years from now. I sure hope so. But I'd wager quite a lot now that Collins will be an excellent NBA player and much better than Patton when we look back years from now.

More importantly, I can't give Thibs a pass on this decision because it harkens back to prior Wolves executives who ignored the obvious in favor of their own more subjective judgment. It's what the Wolves did when they drafted Craig Smith instead of Millsap in the 2nd round. Millsap was one of the best rebounders in college at the time. I recall thinking of him as the obvious pick when, to my surprise, he was still available as the Wolves were on the clock in the 2nd round. I talked to Rob Babcock after the draft and he told me he had personally scouted Smith and sold the front office on drafting him. I get the sense that our scouts and Layden sold Thibs on the Patton pick. I I'm right, I think Thibs may live to regret following their advice.

[60WinTim]

You could be right, Lip, but I am not finding myself convinced that Collins would have been the better pick than Patton. Now, if I needed my 1st round pick to contribute this year, then yeah, Collins is much more likely to contribute this year than Patton. Heck, Collins already has two years of college under his belt, compared to one for Patton.

The story line behind Patton is pretty interesting. An athletic big that has guard skills. I find his potential very intriguing, and will pay attention to his progress in Iowa.

[Monster]

I'll be interested if either of these guys end up being better than Markkanen.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

A declaration after 1 summer league. Bold thread. We'll see how it actually pays off in the games that matter.

[m4gor [enjin:6667447]]

main difference between those two and reason why probably Thib drafted Patton is difference in size, Collins has 8'10 standing reach, which is SF size and Patton has 9'4 standing reach, which is legit center size (it is more than KAT has)

still if one would draft for boosting bench for next season Collins would be the pick, though especially with undersized guys i would be temted to wait for actual NBA action as size/agility of players in summer league is not on par with NBA

[BloopOracle]

ehhh he looked like a poor man's Markkanen to me :)

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

The 16th pick will be a talker for years to come, because we needed a big man and there were several available at 16. Lip liked Collins, I liked Jarrett Allen, but Thibs took Patton. We won't be able to evaluate Patton this year because he's out for the season. But Allen vs. Collins might be fun to watch. I agree that production is a good starting point for evaluating a pick, and that's why I liked Allen...16.2 points and 9.8 rebounds in Big 12 play, and he kept improving as the year went on. Allen missed summer league with a hip injury, but I think he could be a nice addition to the Nets this year.

By the way, I'm not unhappy with Patton...it's just that I hadn't studied him much before the draft. It's easy to like a guy that long that was a PG until a couple years ago. Collins, Patton, Allen? I don't know. What I do know is that the plethora of bigs available at 16 made the Butler trade even more attractive than it already was.

[60WinTim]

LST - I remember seeing some nobody say he's out for the season. But conversations after that indicated he should be playing in the G-league this year. I wondered if the "out for the season" was actually meant to be "out for summer league".

The fact he had surgery is a concern, but in an interview after the surgery Justin said the surgery was optional, and done to speed / ensure the healing process.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

LST - I remember seeing some nobody say he's out for the season. But conversations after that indicated he should be playing in the G-league this year. I wondered if the "out for the season" was actually meant to be "out for summer league".

The fact he had surgery is a concern, but in an interview after the surgery Justin said the surgery was optional, and done to speed / ensure the healing process.

Yeah, you're right Tim. There was an immediate report thaat he was out for the season, but now they are only saying that surgery was successful (imagine that, has there ever been a report about an unsuccessful surgery?) and he is out indefinitley. Let's hope we get to see the kid play this season...wasn't my first choice, but certainly an intriguing prospect.

[Monster]

This article has the most detailed info about the injury and possible recover time. I included the except below with the most info.

http://www.omaha.com/creighton/mens-basketball/former-creighton-standout-justin-patton-remains-upbeat-about-future-with/article_ba013800-61e9-11e7-a063-476f4aed021c.html

"He said he slipped on some sweat that had pooled on the court Thursday. He kept practicing, but then was examined by medical staffers afterward.

They determined that he had broken the fifth metatarsal in his left foot. Patton said his fracture is believed to be on the milder side -- had he cracked the bone a little closer to the ankle, there may have been nerve damage. He could have opted out of surgery, but he decided to go ahead with a procedure that's become common for players in this league.

"Mine's minor," he said by phone. "I'll be fine."

The Timberwolves released a statement Tuesday that indicated that Patton underwent surgery in New York. Foot specialist Dr. Martin O'Malley operated in collaboration with Minnesota's team orthopedic surgeon, Dr. Diane Dahm.

Patton's timetable for recovery was not specified by Minnesota's public relations staff Tuesday. He thinks it'll be about two months.

The recovery time has been much longer in some high-profile cases. Last year's No. 1 overall pick, Ben Simmons, missed all of last season with Philadelphia. Kevin Durant played in just 27 games in 2014-15 because of a fifth metatarsal break."

Some addition context:

Simmons foot didn't heal properly and that is why he was out for the whole season. He had a cartilage injection when they figured out it wasn't healing properly. Remember also Simmons injury was in October.

Based on some google searching and reading some of these fractures are not a huge deal. If I had one they would just have me rest up and heal basically. The surgery makes it heal quickly. The question about reoccurrence is partly about where in the bone the break or fracture happens. I don't know where Patton's fracture was so even if I understood the differences it wouldn't matter.

The bottom line is if there are no complications he should be fine in a few months and even if they take it really easy with him he should play plenty in Iowa.

These foot injuries seem to be a legit concern long term and I think that's something we all cringe about with legit reason to do so. It's also possible it's not going to be a big deal. I was having some pain in my right foot after doing my first half marathon a few weeks ago. After a couple weeks of pain I was starting to freak out a bit wondering what the issue was. I read about stress fractures in the metatarsal bones. They are really common in runners (often from overuse or improper training) and even though they can bring problems with reoccurrence even if they are treated properly it's said most people are able to keep running for years dealing with them. I'm pretty sure mine was a tendon issue that rest so far seems to have solved the problem. I guess for Patton and myself we will see. I'll keep you posted. Lol jk If you start getting into running follow proper training methods (I didn't) and it will help keep you from getting injured.