Who Will the Wolves Pass in the Standings?

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longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
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Re: Who Will the Wolves Pass in the Standings?

Post by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564] »

monsterpile wrote:
SameOldDrew wrote:Good question. Tough to say. We're 3-0 since the trade, including wins against 2 good teams, so clearly dumping Butler cleared the air somewhat, and the two new guys are helping.

That leaves me opDOUGistic, but the NBA has been volatile this year. Teams expected to be bad are playing well while some guys like Mitchell seem to be taking a step back. And there's always the injury concern. We've clearly got more talent than Dallas and Sacramento, other than that, there are a lot of teams that should be at or about our level, pretty good, but not great. San Antonio, Memphis, LAC. The Lakers and Pelicans have the potential to be great but I'd guess more like being on our level as well. So it should be another close race for those last playoff spots and I really hope we can get in on that.

The key related question to me is HOW will we win the most games? Given what Thibs the GM has assembled, it seems clear that Thibs the coach needs to adjust how he coaches in ways that we've been calling for.

[list]
[*] First, our strength is our depth, so use it. Run deeper rotations to keep guys rested and involved.
[*] Second, take advantage of using our depth by pushing guys to get out in transition more. If we play the starters fewer minutes, they should be able to expend more energy when they are on the court, and playing more bench guys means more fresh legs. Tyus, Rose, Okogie, Covington, Saric all seem to do pretty well in transition, so let's go for it more.
[*] Third, develop the capacity to switch on D. We don't have to do it all the time, but it's a defensive tool, and we have the players to pull it off, so why not learn to use it at times to get an advantage?
[*] Fourth, keep stressing passing and off-the-ball movement. Last year we were such an iso-heavy team, and it worked in part because Butler and Towns were so good at it. We don't have Butler anymore, so we need to maximize the effectiveness of our offense by passing, especially with the three point shooting we seem to have now. We've been a bit better about moving the ball this year. But we really need to stress that going forward, IMO.
[/list]

I'll give Thibs credit for embracing the three point shot more this year, which is the one thing we are ALREADY doing that I would have put on this list, so I'm more hopeful than I have been in the past that he has the capacity to change. But given his history, that hope is still somewhat faint.


Good post and list. Here is some reason for more optimism of things that are already happening in addition to the 3 point shooting you mentioned.

The Wolves are 9th in pace and 6th in fast break points. They have been playing much faster all year.

Dane Moore has been talking about how the Wolves have been doing some different defensive concepts since training camp and absolutely utilizing a switching concept which they did not use much last year. He said based on what he has seen since the trade it looks like even more switching is going to happen. Teague has been very outspoken about wanting to utilize a switching concept more.


The Wolves would have a better chance of finishing 2nd if Drew were coaching instead of Thibs. That said, I agree that it seems Thibs is embracing some of the concepts this team needs to embrace, even showing some signs of trusting his bench more (should be pretty easy to do when you have guys like Rose and Saric not starting).

I actually turn Lip's question around and ask which teams other than the Warriors are clearly better than the post-Butler Wolves. The Thunder might be the worst 3-point shooting team in a 3-point shooting league. The Clippers are playing way over their heads (credit to Doc) and lack a legitimate center. The Nuggets look solid, but there's something wrong with Jamal Murray and would anybody really trade rosters with them? The Grizzlies are playing well, but lack a legitimate superstar...I think we will see today the difference in the two rosters. If I were to pick a team that I thought had the best chance to finish ahead of us, it would be Portland with their physical center and marvelous guards...but we saw what the new look Wolves did to them Friday night.


This team needs to stay healthy and not get too Thibodeaud...let's keep it going today!
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Lipoli390
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Re: Who Will the Wolves Pass in the Standings?

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If Thibodeau does all the things Drew listed, then I'd be willing to put a little money (not a lot) down on the Wolves making the playoffs. The Wolves certainly have the talent. But I don't expect Thibodeau to do all those things. In particular, I don't see him running deeper rotations, as evidenced by what he did the other night against the Blazers. Further, I don't see the level of passing and off-ball movement under Thibodeau that this team will need to take full advantage of the team's strengths. I'll add that this team is highly dependent on Derrick Rose. He's the only starting-caliber player other than Teague who can create off the dribble. That's why I wanted Josh Richardson. I like what I've seen so far from Covington and Saric, but neither one provides us with another player who can create off the dribble. I think Okogie will eventually be able to do that at a thigh level, but he's not there yet.

We've seen this team play at a high level since Butler's departure, but I think part of that has been fueled by player euphoria resulting from ridding the team of Butler's oppressive presence. I'm afraid the team will come back down a notch. We'll see, but I think making the playoffs is unlikely.
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longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
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Re: Who Will the Wolves Pass in the Standings?

Post by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564] »

I agree, Lip, that the team is quite dependent on Rose's energy and scoring off the bench, and it's not a secure feeling to be dependent on someone who is so injury prone. Rose's health could be the difference between lottery and playoffs. As I watched him Friday night (and maybe blurred my eyes a little) I couldn't see much difference in explosiveness from the 2011 Rose, and that's saying a lot. Especially with his improvement in 3-point shooting.

I probably should amend my "Wolves have the 2nd best overall talent in the division" to put Houston ahead of them. The Rockets have a formidable Big Three, and are underperforming now partially due to Gordon's uncharacteristic horrible shooting. If they stay healthy and he returns to 3-point form, I see them as the natural #2 team in the division.
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longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
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Re: Who Will the Wolves Pass in the Standings?

Post by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564] »

I don't disagree with Drew and monster that a well-executed switching strategy can be helpful, but it's also encouraging to see some of our better defenders battling to fight over screens...Okogie and RoCo come to mind. Offenses seem to expect us to sloppily follow our man under a screen after being picked, and it's quite disruptive when our long-armed athletic defenders fight through the pick instead.
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Monster
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Re: Who Will the Wolves Pass in the Standings?

Post by Monster »

It will be interesting to see some stats after this group has been together for a few games. There are a few mildly promising signs when it comes to passing and ball movement compared to last season. Looking at tracking on NBA.com Passes are up. Catch and shoot are way up. Some of that could also be because the Wolves are playing at a much higher pace. They are still high in dribbles and time of possession per touch. I think that doesn't have to be a problem though with guys like Rose and Teague looking to attack/drive and then create for others plus it makes sense at times to get the ball in to post to guys like Towns Taj Wiggins and even Saric. Covington and Saric make quick decisions with the ball if there isn't an opportunity and Saric's ability to make nifty passes could help unlock this team in a way that has been missing going back to last season.
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Lipoli390
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Re: Who Will the Wolves Pass in the Standings?

Post by Lipoli390 »

Wolves now have the second worst record and second worst point differential in the West. Only the Phoenix Suns are worse.

Bright spots so far this season: Towns, Rose and Okogie
Hopeful additions: Covington and Saric
Players who should be shopped: Everyone else
Front Office & coaching personnel who should be replaced: Thibodeau & Layden
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longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
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Re: Who Will the Wolves Pass in the Standings?

Post by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564] »

I think Gasol and Conley are terrific players, but I would be surprised if anyone here would vote to trade rosters with them. I mean, Kyle Anderson and Garrett Temple are starters, and Shelvin Mack played the most minutes off the bench! Vegas recognized the talent disparity, and installed us as 6-point favorites. And yet we lost to them by 13 on our home court. More than any game this season, this game demonstrated just how overmatched Tom Thibodeau is as an NBA coach. His inflexible, one-size-fits-all coaching style was on display today. He's not a complete disaster...he was flexible enough to put a SF on Conley (RoCo is incredible on defense). But his inability to recognize what almost everyone on this board recognized in the first quarter...that 3 of our starters just didn't show up ready to play today...is nothing short of baffling. He has a talented, deep roster, and I give some credit to him as POBO for that...but he lacks the vision and flexibility to know how to employ them most effectively. Bickerstaff analyzed the first quarter and used what he saw to work 11 players into the game at the right times. Thibs watched the first quarter, and decided that the rotations he used against a completely different team like Portland would work against a slow-down team like Memphis...mind-boggling! When he finally woke up and put Taj and Teague on the bench where they belonged yesterday, we almost got back into the game...the horrible call on the ball bouncing off of a Griz player followed by a Gasol three was the killer.

I get that players need to be professional and show up for every game, and I don't hold Taj, Teague and Wig blameless (in all fairness, Taj actually worked hard, but was ineffective today). But a good NBA coach has to recognize early what is going to work and what is not, and Thibs failed his team today. He needs to be better for us to make the playoffs, because his roster is good enough if he just uses them correctly.
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Duke13
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Re: Who Will the Wolves Pass in the Standings?

Post by Duke13 »

It's inexplicable to me to not have Okogie in the rotation, and have Gorgui in it. I don't know if it's stubbornness by Tibs insisting to play Gorgui because of his contract. Gorgui is a liability in defense and hinders your offense. With our lineup flexibility now you can slide plays down and play Okogie in Gorgui's place which gives you a much better lineup, offensively and defensively. Tibs has no understanding of how important spacing his.

He insists on playing 2 bigs at all times. I fucking hate him.
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Lipoli390
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Re: Who Will the Wolves Pass in the Standings?

Post by Lipoli390 »

Duke13 wrote:It's inexplicable to me to not have Okogie in the rotation, and have Gorgui in it. I don't know if it's stubbornness by Tibs insisting to play Gorgui because of his contract. Gorgui is a liability in defense and hinders your offense. With our lineup flexibility now you can slide plays down and play Okogie in Gorgui's place which gives you a much better lineup, offensively and defensively. Tibs has no understanding of how important spacing his.

He insists on playing 2 bigs at all times. I fucking hate him.


I agree Duke. It's baffling and frustrating.
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TheFuture
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Re: Who Will the Wolves Pass in the Standings?

Post by TheFuture »

crazy-canuck wrote:I think the grizz are legit. Conley and gasol injuries killed their season last year. But they are still a good grit and grind team when healthy.

Lac could drop off. Harrell is playing out of his mind right now.

Lakers are still lebron lead, by i don't really like that team.

And you can never count out pop.


Not sure I agree with the Lakers view. They are built damn near perfect for this league. Tall, long, athletic players everywhere. They have two big Centers when they need them, and have the a ability to play small ball with anyone . If they can improve their 3pt% w/ Lebron, and they are a scary team.
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