The Kawhi/DeRozan Deal

[Lipoli390]

OK. Nothing much happening with the Wolves. So let's discuss the Kawhi/DeRozan deal. It looks like the deal is Kawhi and Danny Green to Toronto for DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl and the Raptors 2019 1st round pick (top 20 protected). Did one of these two teams win the deal or was it a win-win?

How about the Raptors?

If you go with the rule of thumb that the teams getting the best player wins the deal, then no doubt the Raptors won this deal. But it's more complicated than that in this case as in most cases.

My first thought is that this was a big-rise/big reward move by the Raptors. If Kawhi is physically AND MENTALLY fit, this move makes the Raptors the favorite to win the East next season in a tight 3-way battle with the Celtics and Sixers. Kawhi can match DeRozan offensively and is MUCH better defensively. And Danny Green significantly ramps up the Raptors' 3-point shooting. I still wonder about Kawhi's physical health, not just in relation to last season's quad injury, but his entire history (similar to Jimmy Butler's) of missing a significant number of games due to injury. That's the risk for next season, but the reward for next season is obviously huge.

The greater risk is what most consider the likelihood that Kawhi bolts for the Lakers as a FA next summer. If that happens, I'd call this deal a bad one for the Raptors. If Kawhi walks next summer, that means the Raptors will have given up a perennial allstar in the middle of his prime plus a pretty talented young guy (Poeltl) and a first round pick likely in the 25-29 range for a one-year rental for one trip to the NBA finals and a loss to the Warriors. The gigantic reward for the Raptors would be the Paul George scenario repeating in Toronto with Kawhi getting attached to the organization and re-signing with the Raptors for 3-5 years. I don't see that happening unless Kawhi breaks from his crazy uncle. But the Raptors can pay DeRozan more money to re-sign there than any other team can pay him. A trip to the NBA finals could get Kawhi excited about the Raptors and further encourage him to stay with them. Finally, Kawhi (and even his uncle) might conclude that it's not in Kawhi's best interest to play in the shadow of LeBron and put up with Lonzo Ball's idiotic patriarch.

How about the Spurs?

No matter what, the Spurs emerge a winner in this deal. It wasn't just a matter of Kawhi preferring to play elsewhere. It's clear that Kawhi's attitude towards the Spurs was downright hostile. There is no doubt he was going to leave the Spurs as a FA after this season and not even clear he'd play for the Spurs this season. At a minimum, Kawhi's presence on the Spurs roster would have likely been toxic. So instead of having a toxic presence who would leave for nothing next summer, the Spurs have a perennial Eastern Conference allstar in his prime, a pretty talented young big guy and another first round pick to build on. And they kept Kawhi out of the Western Conference for at least a year. This deal makes the Spurs immediately better than they were last season when they won 47 games. The other two assets acquired in this deal can make the Spurs even better over the long term.

Kawhi's sudden and surprising hatred for the Spurs was, as we all know, unprecedented. The long history of the Spurs since Pop got there has been a history of great personnel decision-making as well as players loving it there and wanting to stay. For example, George Hill was really down when he learned he had been traded as part of the deal that landed Kawhi. Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan never gave any thought to leaving before Parker's departure in the twilight of his career this summer and even then Parker was sad to leave. Aldridge snuggled a bit to adjust in his first season with the Spurs, but then came around in his second second season. He now loves it there. Belinelli was thrilled to return there as a FA this summer. The list goes on. And in this one anomolous case of Kawhi, credit the Spurs for making the most out of a bad situation and positioning themselves well to continue their long track record of success.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I don't know what else the Raptors are supposed to do. People talk title or bust and then they make a title or bust deal and all you hear is Kawhi leaving. So what? You 100% unequivocally know they are not a contender with the team they have. They got swept by a Cavs team that barely got by the Pacers.

Kawhi gives you a chance to win a title. He's that good by himself. The Warriors have relied heavily on Durant for the last two titles and Kawhi can handle that matchup when healthy. He destroyed them in game 1 2 years ago before he got hurt. He's a top 3 player. You aren't getting a better shot at the title than getting him.

They've made their play for the title. I don't see how it can be a bad trade in any scenario for Toronto. If he leaves you weren't contending with what you had so you would have to start over at some point anyway. This gives them a chance and the ability to start over if it fails. Win-win for a franchise stick in purgatory in the league. Running it back can only be the strategy for so long before you need to shit or get off the pot.

[AbeVigodaLive]

1. SAS is going all in on veering left when the rest of the league is veering right? Aldridge and DeRozan are arguable the two most prolific mid-range scorers in the NBA. Apparently, Popovich doesn't dig a rebuild as he enters his 70s...

2. Toronto wasn't good enough. So they were going to break up DeRozan/Lowry at some point. They could either take a step back and rebuild... or go for a title.

If they make the Finals and lose... they're going to build up goodwill along the way as the team that finally broke through. And Kawhi Leonard willingly leaves that? So be it... but it gives the Toronto brass a scapegoat. And at least they have a Finals trip before the rebuild.

Or, it doesn't work out. They don't make the Finals. And Toronto rebuilds... with a bit less in reserves for the inevitable rebuild.

You don't get many viable chances at making the Finals. So why not go for it when you have a chance like Toronto does now...

[Lipoli390]

I don't know what else the Raptors are supposed to do. People talk title or bust and then they make a title or bust deal and all you hear is Kawhi leaving. So what? You 100% unequivocally know they are not a contender with the team they have. They got swept by a Cavs team that barely got by the Pacers.

Kawhi gives you a chance to win a title. He's that good by himself. The Warriors have relied heavily on Durant for the last two titles and Kawhi can handle that matchup when healthy. He destroyed them in game 1 2 years ago before he got hurt. He's a top 3 player. You aren't getting a better shot at the title than getting him.

They've made their play for the title. I don't see how it can be a bad trade in any scenario for Toronto. If he leaves you weren't contending with what you had so you would have to start over at some point anyway. This gives them a chance and the ability to start over if it fails. Win-win for a franchise stick in purgatory in the league. Running it back can only be the strategy for so long before you need to shit or get off the pot.

It's a great move for Toronto to contend for a title next season. Beyond that, it takes Toronto entirely out of the contender conversation and probably puts them in the bottom half of the East if Kawhi leaves next summer. If I were a Toronto fan, I'd probably like the deal for all the reasons you gave.

[Coolbreeze44]

When a team goes for a title, they usually don't give up one of their cornerstones. Cleveland didn't give up Irving to get Love. Boston didn't give up Pierce to get KG and Ray Allen. They're obviously still not good enough to win a championship. I doubt they get out of the East.

[Lipoli390]

I just watched Pop's live interview on the Kawhi trade. Some things that stood out for me:

1. I love the way Pop talked about all the players involved, both Kawhi and all the incoming players. It was all positive and real, not filled with platitudes. Everything sounded sincere and genuine.

2. Pop got a little emotional talking about giving up Danny Green. It's clear that Pop forms close attachments to all his players, not just as players but as people. It came through in his remarks on all the players involved in the deal as well as other current and former Spurs' players discussed during the press conference.

3. He mention that "the team is always changing...". His point is that they constantly need to adapt and adjust to changing personnel. That's so true and it's been a hallmark of Pop's long-term success as we've watched his teams go from a slower, grind-it-out defensive style to a faster higher scoring style back and forth over time. He reminded everyone that the team won 60+ games the season after Tim Duncan left. Now that's a great organization and a great head coach.

4. He was asked if any other moves are likely. His response was that they'd have to "ask RC; it's always full of surprises." Obviously, Pop is not oblivious to personnel moves. But his response highlighted the separation in the Spurs organization between head coach and head basketball executive. The fact that this is the right model isn't even arguable, but that's an entirely different discussion.

5. He was asked about their rookie, Lonnie Walker. He said as he watched Lonnie's essentially running free and improvising it reminded him of the early days of Manu. Then he added that you just need to let him (meaning Lonnie) run with it and see. Yes, Pop is tough and demanding, but he understands players and the need to give them the freedom to develop and tap into their strengths rather than trying to fit them into a narrow mold you might have in your mind about "the right way" the play.

Overall, I couldn't help but notice that Pop and Thibodeau are world's apart as people and coaches. On the surface, some may view them as similar based on their toughness and competitiveness. But in truth, they have little else in common. Pop comes across as a real person who relates to people on a personal, emotional level. Thibodeau clear doesn't.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I don't know what else the Raptors are supposed to do. People talk title or bust and then they make a title or bust deal and all you hear is Kawhi leaving. So what? You 100% unequivocally know they are not a contender with the team they have. They got swept by a Cavs team that barely got by the Pacers.

Kawhi gives you a chance to win a title. He's that good by himself. The Warriors have relied heavily on Durant for the last two titles and Kawhi can handle that matchup when healthy. He destroyed them in game 1 2 years ago before he got hurt. He's a top 3 player. You aren't getting a better shot at the title than getting him.

They've made their play for the title. I don't see how it can be a bad trade in any scenario for Toronto. If he leaves you weren't contending with what you had so you would have to start over at some point anyway. This gives them a chance and the ability to start over if it fails. Win-win for a franchise stick in purgatory in the league. Running it back can only be the strategy for so long before you need to shit or get off the pot.

It's a great move for Toronto to contend for a title next season. Beyond that, it takes Toronto entirely out of the contender conversation and probably puts them in the bottom half of the East if Kawhi leaves next summer. If I were a Toronto fan, I'd probably like the deal for all the reasons you gave.

Toronto was never in the contender conversation so if he leaves they're right back to not being in that conversation. Even after Lebron went to LA was there anyone saying that Toronto was free and clear for the East spot in the finals? No. They were 3rd at best behind Boston and Philly.

[Lipoli390]

I don't know what else the Raptors are supposed to do. People talk title or bust and then they make a title or bust deal and all you hear is Kawhi leaving. So what? You 100% unequivocally know they are not a contender with the team they have. They got swept by a Cavs team that barely got by the Pacers.

Kawhi gives you a chance to win a title. He's that good by himself. The Warriors have relied heavily on Durant for the last two titles and Kawhi can handle that matchup when healthy. He destroyed them in game 1 2 years ago before he got hurt. He's a top 3 player. You aren't getting a better shot at the title than getting him.

They've made their play for the title. I don't see how it can be a bad trade in any scenario for Toronto. If he leaves you weren't contending with what you had so you would have to start over at some point anyway. This gives them a chance and the ability to start over if it fails. Win-win for a franchise stick in purgatory in the league. Running it back can only be the strategy for so long before you need to shit or get off the pot.

It's a great move for Toronto to contend for a title next season. Beyond that, it takes Toronto entirely out of the contender conversation and probably puts them in the bottom half of the East if Kawhi leaves next summer. If I were a Toronto fan, I'd probably like the deal for all the reasons you gave.

Toronto was never in the contender conversation so if he leaves they're right back to not being in that conversation. Even after Lebron went to LA was there anyone saying that Toronto was free and clear for the East spot in the finals? No. They were 3rd at best behind Boston and Philly.

When you finish with the best record in the East and your two best players (DeRozan and Lowry) are still in their prime, you're definitely in the contender conversion the following season. (Of course,we're talking about Eastern Conference contention). Yes, I (like many) had them third behind the Celtics and Sixers heading into this upcoming season. But they were definitely in that top three and, therefore, in the conversation. If Kawhi leaves, the Raptors are NOT back to where they were last season because they'd be without their best player from last season, DeRozan.

No need to stretch things to defend the trade from Toronto's perspective. I like the trade for Toronto. It not only keep the Raptors in the Eastern Conference contender conversation; it puts them at the top of that conversation -- assuming Kawhi is and remains fully healthy. Let's not brush that off entirely as a factor. He's coming off an injury that shut him down for nearly an entire season and he's had a history of missing lots of games with various injuries. But I still think it's a good trade for the Raptors. Health aside, it takes the Raptors from one of three main East contenders to being the first among those top three for at least one season. There is also a chance he stays in Toronto long term. And if he leaves next summer, then the Raptors can trade Lowry along with others and being the rebuild process around Anunoby. The Raptors have had a nice run and I think it was time for them to "go for it" after apparently hitting their ceiling with the young Celtics and Sixers progressing around them. So it makes a lot of sense for the Raptors to take one big shot.

[Lipoli390]

Now that we know who the Spurs got for Kawhi, it's interesting to speculate on what it might have taken for the Wolves to get Kawhi. Here are a couple of what I'd consider to be equivalent deals:

1. Wiggins, Patton and the Wolves top 20 protected 2019 1st round pick for Kawhi and Green.

2. Same as above, but substitute Butler for Wiggins.

My guess is that the Spurs would not have done either deal because they'd be helping a Western Conference rival. But I'd be interested in thoughts on whether either of these would be a deal you would have done as Wolves PBO.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Now that we know who the Spurs got for Kawhi, it's interesting to speculate on what it might have taken for the Wolves to get Kawhi. Here are a couple of what I'd consider to be equivalent deals:

1. Wiggins, Patton and the Wolves top 20 protected 2019 1st round pick for Kawhi and Green.

2. Same as above, but substitute Butler for Wiggins.

My guess is that the Spurs would not have done either deal because they'd be helping a Western Conference rival. But I'd be interested in thoughts on whether either of these would be a deal you would have done as Wolves PBO.

1. DeRozan > Wiggins. Poetl > Patton. Plus, the West/East thing... So I don't see how the Wolves would be in the mix at all with that trade.

That being said... I don't think the Wolves are in the same spot as the Raptors where they'd have to take a flyer on the one-year rental. This franchise isn't at that crossroads yet.

2. I can see the Butler for Kawhi trade as more feasible because there are similarities between the two All Star players... the rub would be the Spurs confidence in being able to resign Butler. Giving up Leonard for a rental is risky at best.