The Rest of the West

[Lipoli390]

This thread is intended as a forum to speculate on what's happening and what is likely to happen with the other Western Conference teams. It's interesting to compare the Wolves going forward with other Western Conference teams based on developments and likely developments with other West teams. So I'll start with some thoughts and speculation on what I consider to be the top contenders and top potential contenders in the West.

I'll start with the top two teams in the West, Golden State and Houston:

Golden State Warriors: They are obviously the best team in the entire NBA and only one other team, the Rockets, were able to compete with them last season. As this next season starts, last year's Warriors roster will remain in place with the addition of rookie Jacob Evans and perhaps a FA vet or two. As this next season begins, Steph Curry will be 29 years old and then turn 30 near the end of the season. Durant will turn 30 just before the season starts. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green will be 28 years old as the season starts. So their entire core guys are still all in their prime. A few key vets are getting long in the tooth as Iggy turns 34 mid season and Livingston turns 33 this September. Yet, Jacob Evans comes in to provide another talented young player to go with second-year player Jordan Bell. So no doubt, barring major injury to one or more core guys, the Warriors will remain the best team in the NBA next season and probably for one or two more seasons after that. But in today's NBA, as players get into their 30s, they can begin to decline. And Curry's ankle issues from early in his career could start to catch up with him. So while the Warriors' reign at the top will likely continue for another 2-3 seasons, the end to their exclusive dominion at the top is finally visible in the not too distant horizon.

Houston Rockets: The Rockets were clearly the second best team in the NBA last season and the only team that could rival the Warriors. As great as James Harden is, I was surprised they ended up as good as they were with Chris Paul and the rest of that roster. But they did have some nice talent around those two guys in Ariza, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon. As it turned out, Clint Capela had a break out season and looks like a budding allstar center and a 3rd piece to the team's core duo of Harden and Paul. And credit Coach D'Antoni for getting the most out of that roster. Looking ahead, Harden is still in his prime as he turns 29 this August. Capela is young and on the cusp of entering his prime at age 24. But there are question marks surrounding this team that cast some doubt on how long the Rockets can remain near Golden State's level or even if they can do that this next season. Eric Gordon is still 29 and turns 30 in December, so he's still in his prime. Ayan Anderson is 30 years old and should still be at the top of his game this next season. But Ariza, another key supporting player, is a free agent and while I think he'll stay with the Rockets, he's 33 years old. Then there is always the question of Chris Paul's durability and longevity at age 33. I think they'll definitely be a top 4 team this next season and maybe at the level they were at last season, especially if Capela picks up where he left off the end of last season. Beyond next season it's hard to know. Harden will remain in his prime for several more years. He and Capela could form the basis of an elite core duo for several years. And as we all know, Houston's front office has a way of making things happen. For now, I see the Rockets remaining a top 4 team for another couple seasons with some potential for some drop off after that although they'll always be a playoff team as long as Harden and Capela are there.

Up-And-Comers from the Lottery. I'll hold off on analyzing the rest of the West playoff teams from last season. Instead I'll focus first on the teams that ended up in the bottom 7 last season, but who seemed poised to jump into playoff contention this next season or become top contenders over the longer term:

Lakers: Obviously, this is the team to watch as potentially taking the biggest leap from being an impressive young up-and-comer last season to becoming not just a playoff team but a championship contender. Right now, there's a good chance the Lakers add two elite players to their roster this summer without losing all their impressive young talent. There's a very good chance they'll end up adding both LeBron and Paul George this summer as free agents. They could do that and still keep their most talented young guys, Ingram, Ball, Kuzma and Josh Hart. Put all that together with their really good young head coach and we're looking at a team that can knock off the Warriors off their throne.

Grizzlies: Memphis struggled last season with their best player and starting PG, Conley, out all season. But if he comes back healthy, combining with all-star Marc Gasol and JaMychal Green, they should be back in mix for a top 8 finish. Their 1st round pick, Jaren Jackson, has the chance to be an elite defensive big and possibly an elite two-way player. How quickly he develops will bear on how well the Grizzlies do this next season. It will be interesting to see who the Grizzlies are able to sign as free agents. Their long-term horizon is questionable given the ages of Conley and Gasol, but they could easily be a playoff contender next season.

Dallas Mavs: This is another lottery team from last season to watch in the West. Dennis Smith Jr. showed last season that he could become an elite PG. Harrison Barnes is a talented SF still in his prime. Sadly, he's better than Wiggins. Their top draft pick this summer, Doncic, is clearly a potential star and is probably the most NBA-ready elite talent taken in this year's draft. Their other pick, Jalen Brunson, looks like he'll be a good one and because of his high basketball IQ, he should be able to contribute right away. Now it looks like D'Andre Jordan is about to sign with the Mavs. This is clearly a team on the rise. Then consider the fact that the Mavs have one of the best head coaches in the League. Add it all together and you can't count out the Mavs as a potential playoff contender this season.

Phoenix Suns: They had the 2nd worst record in the League last season. But they ended up adding a lot of really nice talent in this summer's draft, including a potential superstar in Ayton and a really good player in Mikal Bridges. And don't overlook yet another talented draftee, Elie Okobo. Those guys will join the young allstar Booker and the tremendously talented second-year player, Josh Jackson, who came on strong the end of last season. This is definitely a team on the rise. I see them as the Western Conference version of the Sixers, poised to become an elite team in a few years. Will they be a playoff contender this upcoming season? I'd say no, but I wouldn't count them out entirely either.

Already Good and Getting Better:

Spurs: The biggest question surrounding the Spurs is the final disposition of Kawhi Leonard. But this much is certain. The Spurs will be one of the top 8 teams next season. How can I be so sure? Because they were a top 7 team last season without any contribution from Kawhi, in spite of all the Kawhi drama, and even though Tony Parker was out early recovering from his quad injury. Next season, they'll have a healthy Tony Parker from the beginning AND they'll have either Kawhi or talented players obtained in return for Kawhi. They've also added a big-time talent in Lonnie Walker in this summer's draft. Then, of course, they have the best head coach in the NBA. So look for the Spurs to be even better than last season and a definite top 7 maybe top 5 team.

Utah Jazz -- As a top 5 team last season, they'll likely be even better just based on the fact that their best player, Donovan Mitchell, is entering his second season. And Gobert is still squarely in his prime. I'm not a big fan of their draft pick, Grayson Allen, but hard to question the wisdom of the Jazz front office.

Denver Nuggets: As we all know, the Wolves barely edged the Nuggets out of the 8th seed in the West in the last game of the season. And that's in spite of the Nuggets playing without their prize FA acquisition, Paul Millsap most of the season. Jokic, Murray and Gary Harris provide a talented young core and I'm convinced they'll re-sign Will Barton. Put that core together with Millsap and the Nuggets are bound to win more games than last season if they stay healthy. Then consider the addition of Michael Porter Jr. If he is truly physically healthy, then look out because the Nuggets won't just be better than last season, they'll be much better next season and beyond.

Good and Likely to Remain Good:

Portland Trailblazers -- I haven't seen any off-season moves yet that would make the Blazers better than last season. But they did finish 3rd in the West last season, so they don't have to get bettter to be considered a definite playoff contender and likely top 5 or 6 team. I haven't seen anything yet this summer that could make them worse than last season.

New Orleans Pelicans -- It looks like Cousins will be gone, but that doesn't matter to the Pelicans since they played their best basketball after he went down. So far, it doesn't look like the Pelicans will be making any needle-moving moves this summer, but they don't have to. They finished 6th in the West last season and their star, Anthony Davis, is just entering his prime while Jrue Holiday remains squarely in his prime having just turned 28. Mirotic was a great acquisition last season. He fits well and is still only 27 years old.

The One Who Might Fall

I see only one of the West's playoff teams from last season potentially dropping and that's the OKC Thunder. Whether they drop depends, of course, on whether Paul George leaves. I think he will bolt to the Lakers or Sixers, in which case the Thunder could be the one top-8 team from last likely to be significantly worse next season compared to last.

So how does this all play out for the Wolves? Well, the road certainly doesn't get easier.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Ugh...That's all I have to say. We're going to need some luck to get through this gauntlet of a conference. Nice write up.

[Lipoli390]

Time to get back to this thread now that LeBron has signed with the Lakers. Let's start out with a sad dose of reality. Barring serious injury to LeBron, the Lakers WILL be one of top 8 in the West even if they don't make another move this summer. The Thunder held their ground by retaining Paul George and Jerami Grant. They'll have Roberson back from injury, which will really help their defense. And none of the other top 8 from last season have lost any roster strength this summer. So the question is this. With the Lakers a lock for the top 8, who among the 7 teams that finished ahead of the Wolves last season will fall out of the top 8 this season? Because if not, the Wolves will be back in the lottery next summer. And let's not forget that the Nuggets finished only 1 game behind the Wolves last season after playing most of the season without Paul Millsap.

Best case dream scenario for the Wolves:

1. All the Wolves rotation players stay healthy and Butler, in particular, has an unusually durable season for him and plays in at least 75 games.

2. KAT and the entire team take a noticeable step forward defensively

3. Rose recaptures something close to his former MVP form

4. Tyus picks up where he left off last season, but continues to show improvement, especially in his shot.

5. Okogie becomes this upcoming season's Donovan Mitchell

6. Wiggins finally becomes the player he was expected to be coming out of college by taking a 5th season leap similar to what we saw from Oladipo last season.

Put those six things together and we're definitely a top 4 team and probably right there with the Warriors, Rockets and Lakers. :)

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Time to get back to this thread now that LeBron has signed with the Lakers. Let's start out with a sad dose of reality. Barring serious injury to LeBron, the Lakers WILL be one of top 8 in the West even if they don't make another move this summer. The Thunder held their ground by retaining Paul George and Jerami Grant. They'll have Roberson back from injury, which will really help their defense. And none of the other top 8 from last season have lost any roster strength this summer. So the question is this. With the Lakers a lock for the top 8, who among the 7 teams that finished ahead of the Wolves last season will fall out of the top 8 this season? Because if not, the Wolves will be back in the lottery next summer. And let's not forget that the Nuggets finished only 1 game behind the Wolves last season after playing most of the season without Paul Millsap.

Best case dream scenario for the Wolves:

1. All the Wolves rotation players stay healthy and Butler, in particular, has an unusually durable season for him and plays in at least 75 games.

2. KAT and the entire team take a noticeable step forward defensively

3. Rose recaptures something close to his former MVP form

4. Tyus picks up where he left off last season, but continues to show improvement, especially in his shot.

5. Okogie becomes this upcoming season's Donovan Mitchell

6. Wiggins finally becomes the player he was expected to be coming out of college by taking a 5th season leap similar to what we saw from Oladipo last season.

Put those six things together and we're definitely a top 4 team and probably right there with the Warriors, Rockets and Lakers. :)

Let's not get greedy. If #1, #2, and #6 happen, we're a top 4 team. Unfortunately, at best, only one or two of the things you mention above will likely happen. I think #4 happens, but not sure about any of the others.

[Lipoli390]

Time to get back to this thread now that LeBron has signed with the Lakers. Let's start out with a sad dose of reality. Barring serious injury to LeBron, the Lakers WILL be one of top 8 in the West even if they don't make another move this summer. The Thunder held their ground by retaining Paul George and Jerami Grant. They'll have Roberson back from injury, which will really help their defense. And none of the other top 8 from last season have lost any roster strength this summer. So the question is this. With the Lakers a lock for the top 8, who among the 7 teams that finished ahead of the Wolves last season will fall out of the top 8 this season? Because if not, the Wolves will be back in the lottery next summer. And let's not forget that the Nuggets finished only 1 game behind the Wolves last season after playing most of the season without Paul Millsap.

Best case dream scenario for the Wolves:

1. All the Wolves rotation players stay healthy and Butler, in particular, has an unusually durable season for him and plays in at least 75 games.

2. KAT and the entire team take a noticeable step forward defensively

3. Rose recaptures something close to his former MVP form

4. Tyus picks up where he left off last season, but continues to show improvement, especially in his shot.

5. Okogie becomes this upcoming season's Donovan Mitchell

6. Wiggins finally becomes the player he was expected to be coming out of college by taking a 5th season leap similar to what we saw from Oladipo last season.

Put those six things together and we're definitely a top 4 team and probably right there with the Warriors, Rockets and Lakers. :)

Let's not get greedy. If #1, #2, and #6 happen, we're a top 4 team. Unfortunately, at best, only one or two of the things you mention above will likely happen. I think #4 happens, but not sure about any of the others.

I was exaggerating a bit for effect. I think 2 and 4 will occur. I don't expect any of the others to happen. If only 2 and 4 happen, I don't think we'll make the playoffs. If 1, 2 and 4 happen, then I see us making the playoffs and possible being a top 6 team. If 6 also happens, we're a top 4 team and maybe a top 3. We need all 6 to win the West. Yikes.

[Monster]

I'm going to enjoy the Wolves being a highly ompettive basketball team this season. I'm going to hope for some development of young players like Towns Wiggins Tyus Okogie and KBD. Not all those guys are going to take steps forward or be good but I have hope for some to do it. I am glad we have our draft pick for next year though in case something goes wrong (injuries in particular) or the West is just too tough. I'm focused on the Wolves roster and how it can be built to more than what it was last season. I think there is still some upside to be had an that includes our coach.

[Lipoli390]

I'm going to enjoy the Wolves being a highly ompettive basketball team this season. I'm going to hope for some development of young players like Towns Wiggins Tyus Okogie and KBD. Not all those guys are going to take steps forward or be good but I have hope for some to do it. I am glad we have our draft pick for next year though in case something goes wrong (injuries in particular) or the West is just too tough. I'm focused on the Wolves roster and how it can be built to more than what it was last season. I think there is still some upside to be had an that includes our coach.

Monster - I'll look to enjoy the Wolves the way your suggesting this season. I'm particularly interested in seeing development from Wiggins, Okogie, KBD, KAT and Tyus. I fear we won't see any development/growth from the head coach. And if my fears are confirmed, then I don't expect to see much improvement from those young players or the team as a whole.

[worldK]

I see 2 keys for us if we want to make the playoffs.

1. Health. Jimmy play 70-75 games.

2. Start strong. - 8 or 9 (if belly stay) rotation players are back. The starting 5 was one of the best last season. The chemistry and familarity is there. We dont need the first month or so to build chemistry. We should start the season rolling and getting as many wins as possible. If we somehow play .500 level to start the first 30 games then we are in trouble.

I think we are a playoff team as long as we stay healthy. Where we rank and the ceiling of the team is the unknown. That is where other factors like

1.towns improving his d.
2. Wiggins and tyus taking a leap.
3 The rookies contributing.

Those are going to help determine the true ceiling of the team. I will give it a year more to see how this go.

[60WinTim]

I see 2 keys for us if we want to make the playoffs.

1. Health. Jimmy play 70-75 games.

2. Start strong. - 8 or 9 (if belly stay) rotation players are back. The starting 5 was one of the best last season. The chemistry and familarity is there. We dont need the first month or so to build chemistry. We should start the season rolling and getting as many wins as possible. If we somehow play .500 level to start the first 30 games then we are in trouble.

I think we are a playoff team as long as we stay healthy. Where we rank and the ceiling of the team is the unknown. That is where other factors like

1.towns improving his d.
2. Wiggins and tyus taking a leap.
3 The rookies contributing.

Those are going to help determine the true ceiling of the team. I will give it a year more to see how this go.

Well stated, world. There absolutely was a "building chemistry" stretch to start the season last year. Had we started the season strong and won just a couple of those close games they lost, the Wolves would have been 3rd in the West!

And we had 2 players who really never figured it out -- Bazz and Dieng, and even Wiggins struggled to find his place in all of this. Bazz is gone, but both Dieng and Wiggins have this offseason to work on their game knowing what their roles are going to be. Hopefully that leads to improvements in the upcoming season.

Steve Smith on NBATV was just asked which West teams are most endangered to be knocked out of the playoffs by the Lakers. He pointed to the Jazz or Pelicans...

[Lipoli390]

I see 2 keys for us if we want to make the playoffs.

1. Health. Jimmy play 70-75 games.

2. Start strong. - 8 or 9 (if belly stay) rotation players are back. The starting 5 was one of the best last season. The chemistry and familarity is there. We dont need the first month or so to build chemistry. We should start the season rolling and getting as many wins as possible. If we somehow play .500 level to start the first 30 games then we are in trouble.

I think we are a playoff team as long as we stay healthy. Where we rank and the ceiling of the team is the unknown. That is where other factors like

1.towns improving his d.
2. Wiggins and tyus taking a leap.
3 The rookies contributing.

Those are going to help determine the true ceiling of the team. I will give it a year more to see how this go.

Good analysis, World. But I don't think Tyus needs to "take a leap." All he needs to do is continue the incremental improvement he's already shown. Wiggins is the guy who needs to take a leap. He has never shown a trajectory of improvement over his 4 year career and last season he actually regressed.

Unfortunately, Butler's history suggests he won't play 70+ games much less 75-80. And history also strongly suggests that Wiggins won't take a leap. Rookies typically don't contribute much no matter who they are. So sadly, the odds are against any of three things you listed actually happening - except that Tyus will likely continue to improve because that's been his pattern since coming to the NBA.