The Remaining 36 Games

[Lipoli390]

The Wolves have 36 games left this season. Looking at the team's remaining schedule, it's going to be tough sledding, especially if Covington and Tyus remain out for a significant chunk of their remaining games. I could only identify 16 games that I would expect the Wolves to win. And I can't see the Wolves winning more than 21 of their remaining games.

Winning 16 more games would leave the Wolves with a record of 38-44. Obviously, that record would not put the Wolves in the playoffs. If the Wolves win 21 games the rest of the way, they'll end up with a record of 43-39, in which case the Wolves would probably end up finishing in 6th, 7th or 8th.

Butler debacle put the Wolves in a pretty deep hole. The team's terrible start caused largely by the Butler fiasco and the inexcusable home loss to Atlanta stand out to me as the two biggest things that will likely keep the Wolves from making playoffs.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I think the playoffs are a pipe dream at this point. We just don't have the horses. I know a couple folks here feel we have the talent to be in the playoffs, but when you really look objectively at our roster versus other teams in the West, we just don't. There is KAT and a bunch of average-to-mediocre starters and the same thing off the bench.

I have mused about this before, but I'd like to ask it here: Who is our second best player?

[TAFKASP]

I think the playoffs are a pipe dream at this point. We just don't have the horses. I know a couple folks here feel we have the talent to be in the playoffs, but when you really look objectively at our roster versus other teams in the West, we just don't. There is KAT and a bunch of average-to-mediocre starters and the same thing off the bench.

I have mused about this before, but I'd like to ask it here: Who is our second best player?

It's gotta be Rose, or maybe Taj. Rose is flawed for sure, but him and Taj are really the only other two players who can be counted on to contribute when they're on the floor.

... and neither will be here next season.

[Lipoli390]

I think the playoffs are a pipe dream at this point. We just don't have the horses. I know a couple folks here feel we have the talent to be in the playoffs, but when you really look objectively at our roster versus other teams in the West, we just don't. There is KAT and a bunch of average-to-mediocre starters and the same thing off the bench.

I have mused about this before, but I'd like to ask it here: Who is our second best player?

It's gotta be Rose, or maybe Taj. Rose is flawed for sure, but him and Taj are really the only other two players who can be counted on to contribute when they're on the floor.

... and neither will be here next season.

Yep. Rose is the clear #2 when he's healthy. Taj is #3 and his durability might make him #2. After that, there isn't much. I could see one if not both of these two staying beyond this season, but I wouldn't bet on it.

If I were PBO I'd want both of them to stick around unless I can get a really good deal for one or both by the February trade deadline. We shouldn't have to pay Taj $14 million per year. I'd peg his and Rose's value at $24 million over three years. I'm hoping Teague moves on rather than opt into his final year. My pipe dream is that some team trades us an expiring deal plus a lottery-protected first for Wiggins. OK, maybe an expiring deal and a 2nd round pick is the best we can expect.

[Lipoli390]

I think the playoffs are a pipe dream at this point. We just don't have the horses. I know a couple folks here feel we have the talent to be in the playoffs, but when you really look objectively at our roster versus other teams in the West, we just don't. There is KAT and a bunch of average-to-mediocre starters and the same thing off the bench.

I have mused about this before, but I'd like to ask it here: Who is our second best player?

I generally agree with your assessment, Q. My question then is this: What would you do if you were named the Wolves new PBO starting tomorrow morning? Would you direct the coaching staff to tank the rest of the season in pursuit of the best possible lottery position? Would you aggressively pursue trading Rose or Taj by the trade deadline and, if so, what would you realistically expect in return for either or both of them? Would you aggressively pursue trading Wiggins or Teague by the deadline and, if so, what would you realistically expect in return for either or both? Who are some people you'd include on your short list for head coach starting next season? Maybe the bigger question is what your plan would be to build around KAT over the next 5 seasons.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Rose, Taj, or Covington depending on the night....But it's a bit of a muddle.

Now go look at the teams above us in the standings. Most have a 2nd player and often a 3rd that is easily better than any of the three guys just mentioned above.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I think the playoffs are a pipe dream at this point. We just don't have the horses. I know a couple folks here feel we have the talent to be in the playoffs, but when you really look objectively at our roster versus other teams in the West, we just don't. There is KAT and a bunch of average-to-mediocre starters and the same thing off the bench.

I have mused about this before, but I'd like to ask it here: Who is our second best player?

I generally agree with your assessment, Q. My question then is this: What would you do if you were named the Wolves new PBO starting tomorrow morning? Would you direct the coaching staff to tank the rest of the season in pursuit of the best possible lottery position? Would you aggressively pursue trading Rose or Taj by the trade deadline and, if so, what would you realistically expect in return for either or both of them? Would you aggressively pursue trading Wiggins or Teague by the deadline and, if so, what would you realistically expect in return for either or both? Who are some people you'd include on your short list for head coach starting next season? Maybe the bigger question is what your plan would be to build around KAT over the next 5 seasons.

Without thinking about it too much or being overly prescriptive, I'd do the following:

1. Play out the season with the guys we have UNLESS someone really makes us a nice offer for someone. I think the only way to evaluate Saunders is to let him finish this season out with this squad and give him a fair chance to compete for a playoff spot (even though I personally don't think they will get in).

2. The second our season ends, I am shopping Wiggins with a goal to do (almost) whatever it takes to move him off the books, barring some miraculous turnaround in his play the rest of this season. That contract is an albatross to this franchise. Just cut our losses and move on.

3. Hire a shooting coach.

4. In terms of player personnel, anyone we draft, trade for, or sign has to have shooting as a strength and/or defense, and ideally both. RoCo is so valuable because he is a volume 3 shooter AND defends well. Those guys are super valuable.

5. I don't claim to know much about coaches or coaching. But names I wouldn't object to would be Ryan Saunders, Eric Musselman, Luke Walton (if he gets canned by LAL), and Monty Williams. Again, others could parse these out far better than me, but I'm just saying none of those names make me recoil like Randy Wittman or Kurt Rambis would!

6. As part of my coaching search, I'd look for a coach that can install an offense that takes better advantage of KAT and Saric's passing abilities. We'd run less PG-heavy sets and more action off the bigs at the elbows or just above the arc.

7. Because of #6, it reduces the need for a high usage/scoring PG, so we could potentially sign Tyus relatively inexpensively and then start him. He meets the "defense" criteria I mentioned above and I think eventually he becomes a solid enough 3-pt shooter.

8. Hope and pray we hit on our draft picks!

[kekgeek]

Based on the trade machine this works.

Jeff teague and Wiggins for S.Hill, E.Payton, Wes Johnson and Darius Miller.

Pelicans are in desperation mode with Davis becoming a Free Agent after next year. They would obtain the best 2 players in the deal in Wiggins and Teague.

They can roll out a
Teague/holiday/Wiggins/mirotic/ Davis starting 5. With Moore and Randle off the bench

Wolves clear 44 million in cap next year.

Wolves would have to waive one guy and I would assume that would be wes Johnson.

Of course we would be worse this year but we would have a clean slate in the offseason and I honestly believe pelicans are desperate enough to gamble on Wiggins and Teague. If they lose Davis they are done and they would still have their pick to shop for possibly one more deal

[MikkeMan]

I think the playoffs are a pipe dream at this point. We just don't have the horses. I know a couple folks here feel we have the talent to be in the playoffs, but when you really look objectively at our roster versus other teams in the West, we just don't. There is KAT and a bunch of average-to-mediocre starters and the same thing off the bench.

I have mused about this before, but I'd like to ask it here: Who is our second best player?

I think it's clearly Robert Covington if you consider both offensive and defensive sides. Based on RPM and onn/off numbers RoCo is closer to KAT than anyone else is to him. Taj is clear 3rd best player.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I think the playoffs are a pipe dream at this point. We just don't have the horses. I know a couple folks here feel we have the talent to be in the playoffs, but when you really look objectively at our roster versus other teams in the West, we just don't. There is KAT and a bunch of average-to-mediocre starters and the same thing off the bench.

I have mused about this before, but I'd like to ask it here: Who is our second best player?

I think it's clearly Robert Covington if you consider both offensive and defensive sides. Based on RPM and onn/off numbers RoCo is closer to KAT than anyone else is to him. Taj is clear 3rd best player.

Others might say Rose because he can create his own shot. One reason guys like RoCo and Taj are pretty efficient is because they aren't the ones having to facilitate and create shots, yet Rose does so quite efficiently. Now his defense is atrocious, which is the only reason I don't put him clearly ahead of RoCo or Taj.

But the fact we are even having this debate among three roles players (and I do see Rose as a role player in that he's a classic 6th man no-defense scorer) demonstrates my larger point. We simply don't have the upper level talent to compete in the West. We are very similar to the Pelicans.