2018 NBA Draft: Cam’s Prospect Watch For No. 20

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

The following five players are who I have my eyes on heading into the summer. It should come as no surprise that they're all perimeter players that possess a three-point shot. It's been harped on long enough, but this team must find perimeter shooting in order to take that next step and gain home court advantage with the idea of contending in the very near future. In the same breath, they need another defensive presence at the wing tremendously. The Wolves took what they felt like was the best player available last year in Justin Patton and he should help solidify the frontcourt situation. In this draft, the pick almost has to be a guard or wing. Without further ado, these are my players to watch.

Rawle Alkins, G, Arizona:
- Height: 6'4.25"
- Weight: 217.4 lbs
- Wingspan: 6'8.75"
- Age: 20
- 2017-18 stats: 13.1 PPG (43.2 FG%, 35.9 3P%, 72.4 FT%), 2.5 APG, 4.8 RPG in 31.4 MPG

Notes: Is this guy a future NBA player or an NFL linebacker? Physically, he's 'there' right now. Broad shoulders, thick traps, built upper body. Good athlete, but he's one of those mechanical/jerky movers instead of smooth and fluid. He's one of the strongest [physically] guard prospects in this class. His game isn't necessarily pretty, but it's effective. Does a lot of the little things -- defends at a high level, hustles, runs the floor hard, battles for loose balls, makes the extra pass, cleans the glass, relocates himself for perimeter shots, etc. Attribute this to him, of course, and Coach Sean Miller. Great teammate, definitely has a contagious energy about him. When asked what his biggest strengths are, his answer was his motor and his defense. Alkins was interviewed by HoopsHype this month and talked about his winning mentality and what it means to him. Basically said that team success brings individual success. Plenty of other good tidbits in there about coming to the NBA Combine last year and realizing what he needed to do to get better; changing his diet, workout plans, realizing his role at the next level and building his game for it. A player's mindset and inner drive is arguably more important than their skills and ability, and Alkins checks the boxes for me. As for his game, he's a role player through and through. Offensively, his game is pretty simple. Straight line drives, transition buckets, open three-point jumpers, offensive put-backs. His handle is a definite weakness as well as overall wiggle in his game. Doesn't really break anyone down off the dribble. Relies on his effort, strength, and athleticism for the most part. Capable of finishing with either hand. Very basic floater game. Good form on his jumper, but will have to increase his range as his shot gets muscled at times. He should be available at the bottom of the first round (20-30).


[youtube]6MppksBGctQ[/youtube]


Josh Okogie, G, Georgia Tech:
- Height: 6'4.5"
- Weight: 210.8 lbs
- Wingspan: 7'0"
- Age: 20
- 2017-18 stats: 18.2 PPG (41.6 FG%, 38.0 3P%, 82.1 FT%), 2.5 APG, 6.3 RPG in 36.4 MPG

Notes: At first glance, Okogie just looks the part. The guy is a solid 200-plus. NBA-ready body. Really long arms and a good first-step. Not really an explosive leaper, but he's quick off the floor and can get UP. Capable of playing above the rim and is a plus athlete overall. Loves the physicality of the sport and will mix it up down low. High-motor player, though sometimes does take plays off. In two years at GT, he grabbed 5.4 RPG and 6.3 RPG, respectively. His 1.8 SPG and 1.0 BPG (!) last year speak for themselves. He's got plenty of offensive upside, but with the right coaching, this guy could be a defensive force. Offensively, he can score in a plethora of ways. Loves to push the ball in transition. He's tough to stop when he gets a head of steam. Still at that stage where he goes 100-mph 100% of the time, so to speak. Would benefit greatly from changing speeds to keep his defender guessing. Not the most creative ball-handler, definitely needs some refinement in this area. Creates and absorbs contact very well at the rim. Okogie's per game averages of 6.5 FTA and 6.8 FTA in two years of college ball are quite respectable. Definitely see this aspect of his game translating. Have to respect his three-point shot -- 1.6 makes on 4.2 attempts. Much better shooter when he's set. Needs to improve his shot off the dribble, but there's signs of promise. Scoring efficiency slipped a bit from freshman to sophomore season despite USG% and role remaining the same. Decision-making is a weakness right now (0.97 AST/TO), but overall skills and ability has got him this far. Made a number of huge plays for his team throughout the season. Will likely show up and show out at the NBA combine. Will turn heads on measurements/physical tests alone -- update: he had the best lane agility score and tied for best vertical (42 inches). He's a first-rounder in my mind, but it's hard to say where he'll get picked. I could actually see a team falling in love with his potential and taking him late lottery, but I could also see teams letting him fall to the bottom of the round or even the second-round. The latter is definitely more likely than the former.


[youtube]gEVGswKurcY[/youtube]


Landry Shamet, G, Wichita State:
- Height: 6'5.25"
- Weight: 188.6 lbs
- Wingspan: 6'6.75"
- Age: 21
- 2017-18 stats: 14.9 PPG (48.9 FG%, 44.2 3P%, 82.5 FT%), 5.2 APG, 3.2 RPG in 31.7 MPG

Notes: Efficient production for a winning team stands out immediately. Wichita State went 25-8 last season en route to the NCAA tournament primarily because of Shamet -- his .655 TS% last year was absurd. He said it himself this month, but he's a very good perimeter shooter -- he's even called his jumper his "baby". Shamet made 2.6 threes on 5.9 attempts last year and 2.0 on 4.6 attempts the previous year. When you watch him, his shot isn't Bradley Beal or Klay Thompson in terms of fundamentals, but it sure is a repeatable stroke and it seems like he's always squared up despite the many ways he can get it off. Shamet has good size for either backcourt position despite have a somewhat slight frame for a 21-year old. His length helps him on both ends, but mainly offensively when he's facilitating over shorter guards or attacking the rim. He's not a superb athlete or all that explosive vertically, rather relying on his change of speed/direction and intelligence, but he's a surprisingly good finisher. Right hand, left hand, utilizes the glass in a plethora of ways, awkward finishes ie. wrong-footed/off-balance. Was used at Wichita State as a primary ball-handler -- and thrived -- but was able to show his off-ball prowess sporadically. Showed that he was comfortable running off screens to free himself; can fade into space or curl for a jumper or drive an open lane. Floater game is quite good, especially going right. Loves using head/pump fakes and step-throughs in the paint. Doesn't necessarily have the ball on a string, but he has a very crafty handle. Gets to his spots just fine. Capable of running PnR action and getting a good look. Normally looks like he's in control, doesn't force the issue often -- 2.48 AST/TO is pretty decent. Very much a competitor and plays with effort. He's not what I would call a "good defender" but the energy is apparent; in the right spot enough to where he can be considered OK. Should have been able to corral more rebounds than he did when you factor in his positional size advantage most nights. Would liked to have seen him perform better in his tournament outing against Marshall. Doesn't get enough credit/hype nationally for what he accomplished with the Shockers overall -- a lot of basketball fans don't even know who he is. I see him getting drafted anywhere from 15-25.


[youtube]kHfsBvp_Dto[/youtube]


Khyri Thomas, G, Creighton:
- Height: 6'3.75"
- Weight: 198.8 lbs
- Wingspan: 6'10.5"
- Age: 22
- 2017-18 stats: 15.1 PPG (53.8 FG%, 41.1 3P%, 78.8 FT%), 2.8 APG, 4.4 RPG in 31.7 MPG

Notes: Honestly, what's not to love about Thomas as a prospect other than his age? He's a defensive stud winning Big East Defensive Player of the Year twice in his three years at Creighton. He's a highly efficient, opportunistic scorer at the wing sporting a magnificent -- and downright silly -- .650 TS% thanks in part to his ability to finish at the rim and bury his three-point shots. Thomas is the dictionary definition of 'letting your defense spark your offense'. Front offices are salivating at his ability to get after it defensively every night. He's fundamentally sound, good stance, great feet and can slide laterally with quicker players. Also possesses a strong base with a low center of gravity. Doesn't often get bullied or moved off his spot. His length and ability to read the passing lanes is well beyond his years. Rarely gambles for these opportunities, but will practically bait guards into making what looks like a simple swing pass and then take it away. He's also got terrific hands. Thomas piles up deflections, rips opposing guards that don't pay him close enough attention. Offensively, he's a combo guard that can do a little bit of everything. Definitely a threat in transition. Doesn't really have a creative handle, but he can navigate through the defense using hesitation dribbles, head fakes, and long strides. Good touch around the rim; utilizes Euro-steps, reverses, floaters. Uses both hands. Comfortable shooting out of dribble/handoff action. Very good spot-up shooter, especially at the breaks. Makes the right pass most of the time. Good awareness. Very humble, good teammate. Thomas is a player you just know is going to produce for a decade. His style of play is perfect for today's NBA and he'll be off the board anywhere from 10-20. If he's available at 20, I can't imagine a scenario where Minnesota doesn't select him.


[youtube]yr7sZyFUri4[/youtube]


Gary Trent Jr., G, Duke:
- Height: 6'5.75"
- Weight: 204.2 lbs
- Wingspan: 6'8.75"
- Age: 19
- 2017-18 stats: 14.5 PPG (41.5 FG%, 40.2 3P%, 87.6 FT%), 1.4 APG, 4.2 RPG in 33.8 MPG

Notes: Confidence breeds confidence and besides his sweet, picture-perfect jumper and overall size for position, I think that's his best attribute. Trent looked very comfortable taking shots from all over the court as a freshman at Duke. Never afraid of the big moment. His game revolves around his shot. Adept at squaring up quickly and staying balanced. Quick release and size allow him to shoot over contests. If his jumper is not falling, he's unlikely to really get it going. He's pretty streaky and part of this is due to shot selection. He can, at times, rush offensive possessions instead of working the ball around. Loves transition threes. Runs right to the break or the corners instinctually. Shooter's mentality. Straight line drives, almost always goes right. Uses hop steps to create separation in the paint. Can finish through contact due to a filled-out frame and strength. Decent athleticism, but doesn't rely on it. Average handle right now, definitely should improve this area of his game. More of a one or two dribble guard at this stage. Solid rebounder for his position, but think he could do better here. Not much of a defensive presence at this point of his career, but the tools are there. Reminds me a lot of an Allen Crabbe type, but with the potential to be more. I can see him going anywhere from 10-20.


[youtube]mzY0e6sGggA[/youtube]


*Players arranged not by order of favorites, but by alphabetical order of last names.*

[Monster]

Thanks for posting Cam I was really looking forward to this.

I know my lens of looking at this draft is colored by the fact that we need wings and shooters but it feels like this draft does have a solid mix of them where we are picking and could even have someone relatively interesting at #48. I'm starting to get hyped up a little now especially that the draft coverage from the draft express guys is rolling in with more detail and with Cam's top 5 guys to watch!

[thedoper]

Small 2s seem to be the theme here. We certainly need a replacement for Jamal. Two way potential would be nice. Is there anyone with more length you like Cam?

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I still like Gary Trent out of this group. He has legitimate size for the 2 and he's a volume shooter who may have a lot more in the aresenal that he couldn't show off at Duke where he was basically the token floor spacer when Allen was running the game. I'm not saying he's Klay, but when you compare their profiles there is a lot of similarities. They both grade out the same overall with a few minor differences. Trent is more streaky which is why he's a lot lower on the draft board, but I think he's gonna be a steal for someone who needs shooting.

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/klay-thompson

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/gary-trent-jr

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Well done Cam! Thanks for putting in the work. I haven't had time to go through all of this yet, but looking forward to referring to this post often between now and draft day.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Very good list, Cam...you continue to be our go to guy when it comes to evaluating college players. Here are my thoughts on your 5. I'm not a fan of Gary Trent, perhaps because I don't think he did enough with the wide open 3-point looks he got at Duke (I fully admit I may have watched him on his worse days, because his stats are just fine). He clanged a lot of 3-pointers when I was watching that he should have made, and I just don't see him getting as many open shots in the NBA. I love Shamet and Thomas, but would bet even money they will both be gone by #20 (yet another reason I continue to wish we had the lottery pick we lost when we beat Denver the last game of the season). If either is there though, I say go for it.

That brings me to Alkins and Okogie, two guys I have not been focusing on. I think #20 is too early to go with either, but the bonus is I think one or both could still be there when we pick at 48...NBAdraft.net has them at 54 and 57. I would be happy to get either with our second pick.

Doper asks about SGs with more length, and I will point to 2 I mentioned in the other draft thread. Cam, I'm interested in your thoughts (and others too) since I only know Sam Hauser from stats. Here's my evaluation of each of my 2 guys:

If Shamet and Thomas are gone as I expect, I would strongly consider SMU combo guard Shake Milton. He played PG most of last year, but at 6-6 with a 7-foot wingspan projects better as a SG in the pros. Averaged 18/4.7/4.4 and 43.4% on threes. Every time I watched him (and also on the videos I have seen), I was really impressed with his court vision, PnR play, and handle with both hands. NBAdraft.net has him going 41, so he's almost certain to be available to us at 20.

Also lengthy at the 2 is 6-8 Sam Hauser from Marquette. Stats were 14.1/ 5.7/2.9 and he was lights out on threes at 48.7%. I don't see him on any draft boards, so he likely would be available at 48 or as a Summer League free agent.

The other guy I like at 48 is Nevada's Caleb Martin...especially if he would bring Musselman with him :).
18.9/5.4/2.6 and 40.3% on threes.

[Monster]

Very good list, Cam...you continue to be our go to guy when it comes to evaluating college players. Here are my thoughts on your 5. I'm not a fan of Gary Trent, perhaps because I don't think he did enough with the wide open 3-point looks he got at Duke (I fully admit I may have watched him on his worse days, because his stats are just fine). He clanged a lot of 3-pointers when I was watching that he should have made, and I just don't see him getting as many open shots in the NBA. I love Shamet and Thomas, but would bet even money they will both be gone by #20 (yet another reason I continue to wish we had the lottery pick we lost when we beat Denver the last game of the season). If either is there though, I say go for it.

That brings me to Alkins and Okogie, two guys I have not been focusing on. I think #20 is too early to go with either, but the bonus is I think one or both could still be there when we pick at 48...NBAdraft.net has them at 54 and 57. I would be happy to get either with our second pick.

Doper asks about SGs with more length, and I will point to 2 I mentioned in the other draft thread. Cam, I'm interested in your thoughts (and others too) since I only know Sam Hauser from stats. Here's my evaluation of each of my 2 guys:

If Shamet and Thomas are gone as I expect, I would strongly consider SMU combo guard Shake Milton. He played PG most of last year, but at 6-6 with a 7-foot wingspan projects better as a SG in the pros. Averaged 18/4.7/4.4 and 43.4% on threes. Every time I watched him (and also on the videos I have seen), I was really impressed with his court vision, PnR play, and handle with both hands. NBAdraft.net has him going 41, so he's almost certain to be available to us at 20.

Also lengthy at the 2 is 6-8 Sam Hauser from Marquette. Stats were 14.1/ 5.7/2.9 and he was lights out on threes at 48.7%. I don't see him on any draft boards, so he likely would be available at 48 or as a Summer League free agent.

The other guy I like at 48 is Nevada's Caleb Martin...especially if he would bring Musselman with him :).
18.9/5.4/2.6 and 40.3% on threes.

LST I feel the same way as you about Trent. It just felt like when I watched him he was kinda good just didn't seem to wow me. To be fair some other guys I like in this draft I probably watched less of than Trent because when I watched Duke I tended to pay some attention to attention and the other guys maybe I didn't even watch. Reverse homerism!?!? :) I don't dislike him either he has talent but I also have read about and seen (when I watched) his lack of being a good defender. Still he was a talented freshman playing on a loaded roster...what will he look like a year or 2 from now? Will he have developed or will/would (like if he stayed in school another year) not really progress much? Idk

As for some guys with length a lot of the guys Cam mentioned have plenty of length with their wingspan plus a couple of them including Thomas are build very strong. I'm ok if you need up with a guy that's only able to guard 1-3 except the really big SFs. To me one of the things this roster lacks is a quick nasty perimeter defender that can stay in front of even the quick guys.

The more I look into this draft it seems more their is a bunch of Wings which is exactly what this team needs along with pretty much every NBA team. I will like some guys more than others but I also think to some extent it's gonna be a big bucket of perimeters guys with varying skills, weaknesses/strengths upside/relatively known etc. there are going to be some worthwhile players and picking them I don't think is going to be terrifically obvious. I say take 2 of them with #20 and #48 (or a combo guard like Javon Carter) and hit on at least one pick.

[Monster]

Ok i just finished watching all 5 videos of Cam's 5. I'm going to just give a quick impression of these guys as if these videos where what I know about these guys.

Alkins looks like a beast a guy that can do a little bit of everything. Sting not exceptionally explosive but looks bigger than he is. Not wildly exciting offensively but he isn't not just a 3 and D guy either. He looks like a guy we could use on the roster.

Okogie this guy looks intruiging. His off the dribble offense actually looks promising. He looks like the best combination of explosive athlete and fluid of any of these guys. If he does actually play his butt off like Cam says yes I'll take him I was impressed with what I saw.

Shamet easily the most polished shooter and scorer of the bunch. It's fun to watch him get to his spot and then how he gets up a variety of shots in a smooth easy manner. Looks like the volume shooter we could use.

Thomas ok I have seen and rewatched videos of this guy but up against these other guys videos it looks plenty good. He looks like a do it all guy with more pep than Alkins but they seem like pretty similar players. I like Thomas better.

Trent Jr well if we are just going off this video and age etc man how could you not want this guy? Sweet looking jumper pretty good finisher around the rim nice size plenty of athletic ability. Yeah looks good.

Overall the guy I found the most intruiging watching these was Okogie. I had not seen anything of him and only knew he put up nice verticle numbers. The Draft Express guys on ESPN inside say he was one of the guys who helped himself at the combine with with measurements and on th court. He hasn't decided whether he will stay in the draft. May 30 is the deadline so we will know on a few guys fairly soon.

[WildWolf2813]

Still waving the Hamidou Diallo flag

[thedoper]

Still waving the Hamidou Diallo flag

I'd be on board with that. It would be nice to have an athletic wing who likes to get after it defensively. He may flame out but I'd have no problem with taking that risk. I do think he's going to move up a bit higher than when we are picking though.