Wiggins Trades

[AbeVigodaLive]

When I watch Wiggins game tape the one thing that stands out, is how many bad shots he is forced into. I don't mean his long twos, because he could easily pass the ball off in most of those situations. I am talking about seemingly every game he plays with Teague or Rose in the lineup, he ends up with the ball in his hands with less than two seconds. I am sure someone can probable find a stat like that, but it seems like he goes from an inefficient scorer to average or better if it happens once every two games (which I think it does). Is it possible that is the reason for significant drop this season?

One other thing that jumps out at me is how many blatant fouls he takes on his drives to the basket, with no call from the officials. He seem to be getting those calls late in his first season and season 2. You could easily take one turnover a game of his stats based on that alone. Obviously they miss calls all the time, but I am wondering if his lack of improvement has hurt him on that front.

So, he's only averaging 0.7 true TOs per game? Wow. That's about 1/3 of his early career average and arguably the best in the NBA.



[Note: Less facetiously, Teague especially likes to play the hot potato game. I don't think that's remotely close to why Wiggins is suddenly shooting below 40%... but it has happened.]

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Drew, I think the only thing hurting your argument on Wiggins is that when you look at the +/- stuff over the past few seasons, he appears to be much closer to neutral than a total detriment. He doesn't turn it over much, he defends OK-ishly without fouling, and he generally makes the extra pass and keeps the ball moving. I realize these are all really basic things, but I don't find any data that suggest he single-handedly sabotages the various lineups he's in (like Crawford or Shabazz did, for example).

The volume shooting issue is a bit more complex. The question we really have to ask is if his shots were reduced to that of a role playing 3&D wing, who would take those extra shots that now belong to him and how would that impact their efficiency? For example, if we were to completely switch Covington's role in the offense versus Wiggins, what would happen to Covington's efficiency level?

I like you post. Wiggins is not amazing, the lineups that he has been in this year have been pretty neutral being a plus .7 per 100 possessions (But his top 3 lineups have been positive). Also every year just on pure +/- the wolves have been better with him on the court compared to him off the court (that is not saying much but it is something to consider).

The questions you have to ask when trading Wiggins is 1) Can you get any positive value back 2) If we trade Wiggins for cap space (Randolph and Sumpert) what does the cap space really mean, the Wolves have never added a superstar player in there history and even with players moving more in the NBA in recent history they are not flocking to small cold markets. Teague and Taj are 2 of the best signings in Wolves history. So would Wiggins for Teague and Taj be a good trade in your mind and where does that really lead us. 3) Is Wiggins that much of a negative that giving up important assets worth just getting rid of him. In my opinion one of the big problems with the Pelicans they gave up so many assets in 1st round picks to put a quick fix on things but it eliminate their chances at a superstar and superstars win in this league. So Holiday/Mirotic are good players but they are not superstars and that is why I was pumped when they traded for Mirotic because even though Mirotic is good he is not a superstar and trading that pick eliminated them from acquiring a superstar.

My conclusion is do not trade Wiggins with future assets, we have 4 years to hit on a superstar in the draft (It sucks but it is a reality) and we can't give up a shot at a superstar to unload Wiggins. I can live with trading Wiggins for cap space but that in no way fixes any problems we have. In the end it is really no win situation in this, I personally would just keep Wiggins unless we can get young talent back what I think would be hard to get but who knows if multiple teams strike out this offseason they might panic. Teams are smarter but GMs will do risky things to try and save their jobs.

Other things to consider though....

1. Does Wiggins impede the potential discovery of said superstar? If we have a front office that has him slotted in for 30+ MPG in perpetuity, how does that affect our drafting or the opportunities for a potential replacement for him (like Okogie)?

2. The added cap space may not land us a superstar from free agency, but it certainly helps us at least retain valuable role players that we may otherwise not be able to hold onto. And yes, the wing equivalent of a Gibson (solid two-way starter, non-all star) would add more wins to our record than Wiggins does now, IMO.

3. Culture. I think Wiggins hurts the culture of the team. He's the highest paid player with one of the lowest levels of production and efficiency, plus a questionable motor. While I think he's generally a likeable person, I would resent him as a player if he were my team mate.

There is a balance here, which is why I pushed back on Drew a bit. But I am still 100% for trying to move Wiggins, even if we might have to give up an asset. Of course it depends on what that asset is. Not a lottery first for sure, but a protected one? Perhaps so.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

When I watch Wiggins game tape the one thing that stands out, is how many bad shots he is forced into. I don't mean his long twos, because he could easily pass the ball off in most of those situations. I am talking about seemingly every game he plays with Teague or Rose in the lineup, he ends up with the ball in his hands with less than two seconds. I am sure someone can probable find a stat like that, but it seems like he goes from an inefficient scorer to average or better if it happens once every two games (which I think it does). Is it possible that is the reason for significant drop this season?

One other thing that jumps out at me is how many blatant fouls he takes on his drives to the basket, with no call from the officials. He seem to be getting those calls late in his first season and season 2. You could easily take one turnover a game of his stats based on that alone. Obviously they miss calls all the time, but I am wondering if his lack of improvement has hurt him on that front.

He's been an inefficient scorer every year in the league except his second one, and even then he wasn't great, so it's hard for me to blame Teague and Rose. Yes, he's at an all time low in efficiency this season, but I blame it on a lack of aggressiveness on his part. May be if he tried throwing it down on those drives instead of finger rolls, he'd get a lot more calls. 11 dunks for a healthy 23-year old athletic wonder. There's your answer.

[kekgeek]

Drew, I think the only thing hurting your argument on Wiggins is that when you look at the +/- stuff over the past few seasons, he appears to be much closer to neutral than a total detriment. He doesn't turn it over much, he defends OK-ishly without fouling, and he generally makes the extra pass and keeps the ball moving. I realize these are all really basic things, but I don't find any data that suggest he single-handedly sabotages the various lineups he's in (like Crawford or Shabazz did, for example).

The volume shooting issue is a bit more complex. The question we really have to ask is if his shots were reduced to that of a role playing 3&D wing, who would take those extra shots that now belong to him and how would that impact their efficiency? For example, if we were to completely switch Covington's role in the offense versus Wiggins, what would happen to Covington's efficiency level?

I like you post. Wiggins is not amazing, the lineups that he has been in this year have been pretty neutral being a plus .7 per 100 possessions (But his top 3 lineups have been positive). Also every year just on pure +/- the wolves have been better with him on the court compared to him off the court (that is not saying much but it is something to consider).

The questions you have to ask when trading Wiggins is 1) Can you get any positive value back 2) If we trade Wiggins for cap space (Randolph and Sumpert) what does the cap space really mean, the Wolves have never added a superstar player in there history and even with players moving more in the NBA in recent history they are not flocking to small cold markets. Teague and Taj are 2 of the best signings in Wolves history. So would Wiggins for Teague and Taj be a good trade in your mind and where does that really lead us. 3) Is Wiggins that much of a negative that giving up important assets worth just getting rid of him. In my opinion one of the big problems with the Pelicans they gave up so many assets in 1st round picks to put a quick fix on things but it eliminate their chances at a superstar and superstars win in this league. So Holiday/Mirotic are good players but they are not superstars and that is why I was pumped when they traded for Mirotic because even though Mirotic is good he is not a superstar and trading that pick eliminated them from acquiring a superstar.

My conclusion is do not trade Wiggins with future assets, we have 4 years to hit on a superstar in the draft (It sucks but it is a reality) and we can't give up a shot at a superstar to unload Wiggins. I can live with trading Wiggins for cap space but that in no way fixes any problems we have. In the end it is really no win situation in this, I personally would just keep Wiggins unless we can get young talent back what I think would be hard to get but who knows if multiple teams strike out this offseason they might panic. Teams are smarter but GMs will do risky things to try and save their jobs.

Other things to consider though....

1. Does Wiggins impede the potential discovery of said superstar? If we have a front office that has him slotted in for 30+ MPG in perpetuity, how does that affect our drafting or the opportunities for a potential replacement for him (like Okogie)?

2. The added cap space may not land us a superstar from free agency, but it certainly helps us at least retain valuable role players that we may otherwise not be able to hold onto. And yes, the wing equivalent of a Gibson (solid two-way starter, non-all star) would add more wins to our record than Wiggins does now, IMO.

3. Culture. I think Wiggins hurts the culture of the team. He's the highest paid player with one of the lowest levels of production and efficiency, plus a questionable motor. While I think he's generally a likeable person, I would resent him as a player if he were my team mate.

There is a balance here, which is why I pushed back on Drew a bit. But I am still 100% for trying to move Wiggins, even if we might have to give up an asset. Of course it depends on what that asset is. Not a lottery first for sure, but a protected one? Perhaps so.

Fair points. I'm just against giving up future assets to get rid of Wiggins. I just feel those assets are more important than getting rid of a bad contract when I don't think he is a massive net negative and he is a meh starter.

[mjs34]

When I watch Wiggins game tape the one thing that stands out, is how many bad shots he is forced into. I don't mean his long twos, because he could easily pass the ball off in most of those situations. I am talking about seemingly every game he plays with Teague or Rose in the lineup, he ends up with the ball in his hands with less than two seconds. I am sure someone can probable find a stat like that, but it seems like he goes from an inefficient scorer to average or better if it happens once every two games (which I think it does). Is it possible that is the reason for significant drop this season?

One other thing that jumps out at me is how many blatant fouls he takes on his drives to the basket, with no call from the officials. He seem to be getting those calls late in his first season and season 2. You could easily take one turnover a game of his stats based on that alone. Obviously they miss calls all the time, but I am wondering if his lack of improvement has hurt him on that front.

He's been an inefficient scorer every year in the league except his second one, and even then he wasn't great, so it's hard for me to blame Teague and Rose. Yes, he's at an all time low in efficiency this season, but I blame it on a lack of aggressiveness on his part. May be if he tried throwing it down on those drives instead of finger rolls, he'd get a lot more calls. 11 dunks for a healthy 23-year old athletic wonder. There's your answer.

I didn't have a problem with his third season either. I don't know what league average was, but I bet he was pretty close which is pretty good for a younger player scoring 20+ pts/gm. Without a doubt he seems to struggle with aggressiveness/confidence, but I don't consider him a negative player. His passing has been pretty good so far this season, and I think we undersell his defense because he doesn't get a lot of steals.

I also understand the dunks statement, but if you are watching you might have noticed that it wasn't always a choice between the dunk and finger roll. Sometimes you have to leave from farther away than you might like, and the lay in is the only possibility. The handle is always going to be a problem for Wig, and you would have hoped our POBO would have realized that.

Wig is never going to be an all-star, but it would be foolish to package up other assets to move him off the roster. We are a team that is always going to over pay for our FA's. A smart coach would move Teague out of the starting lineup and force his hand in the off season. Of course we have Thibs, so that won't likely happen.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

His TS% in the "early years" was definitely much closer to league average. However, when you compare him to other 20+ PPG scorers, he was usually one of the two or three least efficient scorers of the bunch. In other words, most of the players who aren't very good shot makers generally don't take a lot of shots, and rightfully so. Wiggins has cursed us with an excellent ability to take shots, but not make them....

Since then, the league average TS% has been on a steady march upwards as teams shoot more 3's and avoid the dreaded mid-range and long 2s. So Wiggins is not only going downwards in TS% on an absolute basis, but on a relative basis he is downright horrible now.

[mjs34]

His TS% in the "early years" was definitely much closer to league average. However, when you compare him to other 20+ PPG scorers, he was usually one of the two or three least efficient scorers of the bunch. In other words, most of the players who aren't very good shot makers generally don't take a lot of shots, and rightfully so. Wiggins has cursed us with an excellent ability to take shots, but not make them....

Since then, the league average TS% has been on a steady march upwards as teams shoot more 3's and avoid the dreaded mid-range and long 2s. So Wiggins is not only going downwards in TS% on an absolute basis, but on a relative basis he is downright horrible now.

I think we would all be surprised what a real coach and a few tweaks could do for his numbers. I can see him putting up 25 a night on SA playing for Pop, and unfortunately that is probably a more likely scenario. Wig doesn't seem like a guy that won't take coaching, just a little unmotivated. The biggest problem was we again hired a coach similar to Adelman in that they aren't built to develop younger players. They want' to put in their system, and expect the players to do the rest, and I don't think that always works in today's NBA.

Interesting that Donovan Mitchell is heading down the same path this season. His numbers aren't improving, and he is one of those 20+ pt scorers with a below average TS%. I am guessing teams have figured out his game and are making adjustments. He had a 52.7 TS% and now is sitting around 50 this year.

[AbeVigodaLive]

DeMar DeRozan has been used as a Wiggins comp in the past... Wiggins isn't near that level.

DeRozan is averaging 22.9 ppg for Popovich... interestingly, DeRozan has continued to improve as a passer. He's averaging 6.3 apg... vs. only 2.4 TOs.

[mjs34]

DeMar DeRozan has been used as a Wiggins comp in the past... Wiggins isn't near that level.

DeRozan is averaging 22.9 ppg for Popovich... interestingly, DeRozan has continued to improve as a passer. He's averaging 6.3 apg... vs. only 2.4 TOs.

Here are both players first four seasons -

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=1&player_id1_hint=Andrew+Wiggins&player_id1_select=Andrew+Wiggins&y1=2018&player_id1=wiggian01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=DeMar+DeRozan&player_id2_select=DeMar+DeRozan&y2=2013&player_id2=derozde01&idx=players

[AbeVigodaLive]

DeMar DeRozan has been used as a Wiggins comp in the past... Wiggins isn't near that level.

DeRozan is averaging 22.9 ppg for Popovich... interestingly, DeRozan has continued to improve as a passer. He's averaging 6.3 apg... vs. only 2.4 TOs.

Here are both players first four seasons -

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=1&player_id1_hint=Andrew+Wiggins&player_id1_select=Andrew+Wiggins&y1=2018&player_id1=wiggian01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=DeMar+DeRozan&player_id2_select=DeMar+DeRozan&y2=2013&player_id2=derozde01&idx=players

DeRozan remains the "best case" comp for Wiggins because he's one of the few star players who weren't always on a steady upward climb. For example, he seemed to regress a bit in Year 3. But when we look back at his career in full... we can definitely see how he improved his game along the way. Even as an anomaly... he separates himself from Wiggins by getting off that plateau.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/derozde01.html

By the way, DeRozan is currently making less than Wiggins... and is ostracized/undervalued among the nerdiest NBA analytic wonks.