Looking Ahead

[Lipoli390]

The Wolves have had a rough and disappointing start to the season. But as we all know it's still very early. And in spite of the terrible start, we're only 2 games behind the 7th and 8th place teams in the West, one of which is a Laker team that I am confident will not be in the playoffs. We're 2.5 games behind the 5th and 6th place teams, the Jazz and Rockets. And we're only 3 games behind the 4th place Blazers. The Jazz are very good defensively, but have a hard time scoring. The Rockets strike me as a messed up one-man team that could easily end up in the lottery. The Blazers are a team that has given up more points per game than any team except the Suns. My main point is that predictions the Wolves would make the playoffs this season are still very much alive in spite of the terrible start.

Our next two games are at home against their Hornets and Sixers. Although the Hornets are playing well so far this season, this is definitely a winnable game for the Wolves at home. And while we could lose to the Sixers, that's a game we should win. So by the end of this week, the Wolves should be on the threshold of .500 at 5-6. We then have a tough road game against the Grizzlies, but even that one is winnable. It will be interesting to see how this team performs these next three games. Pehaps we'll see things starting to come together. KAT has yet to get it together, but I'm sure he will. We'll see whether Wiggins' 47 point performance was a breakthrough or just a temporary spike. Same for Belly. Stay tuned. For some reason, I'm feeling optimistic.

[Carlos Danger]

Good post. I pretty much feel the same way (not panicking). I assume Thibbs is still learning his guys and they are still learning his system. When you are on your 4th coach in 4 years....maybe a quick start is too much to expect. Perhaps we should all just be hoping for slow/steady improvement as the season progresses.

What I find fun is that we have three starters who are legit threats to go for 30 on any given night (KAT, Wiggins, LaVine). And those three guys are only 21 years old! In year past, we'd all be thrilled to have ONE player like that. We have three!

It's a long season and I do still expect some roster changes around the trade deadline - especially if things are not coming together by then. It's going to be a fun ride this year. Expectations are higher and I'm very confident we won't finish the season trying to tank for more ping pong balls this time (knocking on wood).

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I'm not panicking, but my confidence has been shaken. I see no improvement on defense, especially on what I consider to be the most important defensive metric in basketball: Opponent eFG%.

Our opponents have an eFG% of .528 against us, which is 28th in the league. Last season we allowed .524. So we have actually gone slightly backwards in terms of our ability to stop made baskets and we are still among the worst in the league, just like last year and the year before.

And we haven't even played Cleveland, Houston, or Golden State yet!

I realize it might take time for defensive concepts to sink in. But not to improve even one bit after a full training camp, pre-season, and 9 regular season games under a defensive guru of a coach? Very disappointing.

[Lipoli390]

Q - The lack of defensive improvement troubles me as well. But I attribute that primarily to the need for more time with Thibs and the need for these young guys to physically mature. As you know, there's typically a substantial difference between the strength of a player at 21 years old versus 25. Zach, Wiggins and KAT will all get much stronger over the next few years.

I'll add that last year's NBA champions are allowing only 3 points per game less than the Wolves so far this season. Last season's Western Conference champions are allowing over 5 points more per game than the Wolves. And the Wolves have a nearly 3 point positive point differential so far this season. At the end of the day it's about scoring more points than your opponent. Defense is only half the equation. This team has the potential to be a high-powered offensive force. Their defense has to be good enough to win games. So I'm still focused on the wins and losses and the development of this young team on both sides of the ball with a new head coach.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Very good optimistic posts, guys...I'm feeling it too after Sunday. I see the Wolves as similar to Houston and Portland right now...able to score, but not able to stop anyone. But knowing Thibs' pedigree as a defense guy, I'd bet on the Wolves to figure it out before the other two teams do. Wig and G have improved on defense under Thibs, but Zach and KAT have not...we need to get more from them.

[Coolbreeze44]

Just win tonight and we will feel a whole lot better about things. And this is a game we should win now. You have a decent Eastern conference team coming into your building and it's time to hold serve at home. A loss tonight would be damaging.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I guess it is heartening to know that this team is a top 5 offense (so far) and while we could hit a cold streak, it's hard to see us not be a top 10 offense when it's all said and done this year. And that is a good thing since offense is much harder to coach up than defense. It is more a reflection of the raw skills and talent of the players you've got.

But if things don't improve much defensively between now and the end of the year, I foresee Thibs making some moves this offseason to address the issue which would lead to a shake-up in our starting lineup. We'll see.....

[Lipoli390]

Q - I think you're probably right about what would happen at the end of the season if our defense doesn't improve by that time. But how much of a "shake up" would depend on just how bad or good we are defensively at the end of the season. I think Thibs understands the nature of the team he took over. And I think he understands that this team will make its mark on the offensive end. I think his goal is to use team defensive concepts that make the team "good enough" defensively to be a top team in the League. Golden State and Cleveland have already proven that you don't need a top defense to win championships.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Lip, The year Golden State won the title, they were #1 in defensive rating, #2 in offensive rating. They were THAT good on both sides of the ball. Cleveland last season was #3 in offensive rating and #10 in defensive rating. Miami was anywhere from 4th to 11th in defensive rating in the three years they won the title.

It goes back to Thibs saying that you need to have a top 10 offense and a top 10 defense to contend. It's just really hard to be so dominant on one side of the ball that it makes up for mediocrity on the other side - at least in the NBA. We need to be more than "good enough" defensively if the goal is to contend.

[thedoper]

Moving forward I do think we will need to tweak the roster a bit. I think with minor adjustments we could really be competitive, which is saying a lot about our core. We've shown higher peaks then last year already in the first 9 games. For short stretches we look amazing (more on offense than d) and then usually fall apart with lack of ball movement.

I think to really bring us to that next level defensively we need a more athletic 4. Ideally someone strong and long so we can let KAT be a true 5. I just hope we don't need to give up the core to get there.