Wiggins path to greatness

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

A lot of hand-wringing has gone on regarding Wiggins and whether he will reach the potential many hoped he could achieve when coming out of Kansas as a super athletic wing. Here are Wiggins' career numbers thus far:

PPG - 18.8
RPG - 4.1
APG - 2.0
SPG - 1.0
BPG - .6
FTA/G - 6.3
TS% - .531 (.486 on 2s, .304 on 3s, .76 on FTs)

While there is no perfect comparison, here are some guys that line up fairly close statistically to Wiggins:

Rudy Gay
Joe Johnson
Jerry Stackhouse
Monta Ellis
Michael Redd
DeMar DeRozan

That's a solid list of players, but hardly anyone jumps out as truly great.

Now, the huge caveat here is that Wiggins has only played two years, with two different coaches, and often with an undermanned team (especially as a rookie). There is still plenty of time for him to carve out a career that elevates him above this list of players.

However, I'm convinced that he'll never become a jack-of-all trades play making wing, ala Jordan, LeBron, Wade, McGrady, and Kobe at their respective peaks. These were guys you could run your offense through. They all rebounded well for their position and piled up assists along with points.

If Wiggins is going to be great, it's going to be because he can score in volume and with efficiency, along with becoming a lock down wing defender. Klay Thompson is a perfect example of a guy that doesn't make a lot of plays for others (2.3 APG career average) or rebound particularly well (3.3 RPG as a SG), but he has become an elite scorer, last year averaging 22 PPG with a TS% of .597. Klay also checks the opposing team's best guard, which often means he's guarding PGs. Obviously Wiggins will never be the shooter Klay is, but he is a much better slasher and is elite at drawing fouls, which is a very efficient way to get points.

The good news for Wiggins is that he has spent his formative years with the Wolves as their "go-to" guy. And while he has struggled with efficiency, he has shown the ability to score in a multitude of ways - post-ups, drives, pull-ups, and spot-ups. Last year he took a very nice step forward in efficiency, going from a TS% of .517 as a rookie to .543. However, even at that level, he was ranked #20 in efficiency out of the 22 NBA players that averaged 20 PPG or more, so he still has a lot of work to do to become a better shot maker.

The other area he needs to improve in is his defensive consistency. We've seen moments where Wiggins is able to lock down on players, but too often there is a loss of focus or energy and he gets burned. His team defense has also traditionally been lacking. He is a weak defensive rebounder for a SF (defensive rebounding is part of playing defense after all) and he never draws offensive fouls. There is no question he has the physical tools to be an elite one-on-one defender. I'm not sure he'll ever be great at the team defensive metrics like rebounds, steals, and charges taken, but if he can lock down the opposing team's best wing, that's good enough for me.

Wiggins is still very young. Historically, the NBA's top scorers don't peak until between seasons 4 and 6, and then usually stay at that level for a few more years. And while Wiggins may not be the transcendent talent many had hoped for, he can certainly be a key pillar in a perennial contending squad. I believe that path is through improved efficiency offensively and better one-on-one defense.

[AbeVigodaLive]

A couple of questions I have... things that are unknown right now (at least for me)...

Will he be good enough to be the 2nd best player on a really good team?
Will he be willing to be the 3rd best player on a very good team?

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

A couple of questions I have... things that are unknown right now (at least for me)...

Will he be good enough to be the 2nd best player on a really good team?
Will he be willing to be the 3rd best player on a very good team?

Related to these questions is the fact that I could have done a very similar write-up for Zach LaVine, but more from a traditional SG perspective vs. generic wing angle I took with Wigs. Neither of these guys are very good in the "does shit" categories (boards, assists, steals, blocks, taking charges, defense) but both are quite similar as scorers, especially once Zach moved to full-time SG.

As of right now, Wiggins is the better player. He's a better defender and more consistent scorer. But his role has been constant for two years whereas Zach only started playing his natural position late last year. It will be interesting watching these two guys this season.

[Monster]

I think its worthwhile to consider that not every player that was a "do shit" guy has those all-around stats to back it up. Q already mentioned Klay who really does alot fo stuff for GS as a scorer and defensive specialist. Bruce Bowen has the stat line of a bench player, but did so much for the Spurs winning all those years including titles. Think about Corey Brewer. That guy is always doing something (good or bad) and its not like he piles up rebounds at a high rate or anything. His elite stat is steals and thats about it which seems almost odd considering his level of activity and energy. Wiggins and Lavine are going into their 3rd season and thats still pretty early in their careers espcially considering their age. Its gonna be fun to follow and see how they do this season.

[thedoper]

Were those player comps their respective stats at 20 years old? If he's already comparable to those players lifetime averages going into season 3 I'd say he's well on his way and we have nothing to worry about.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Were those player comps their respective stats at 20 years old? If he's already comparable to those players lifetime averages going into season 3 I'd say he's well on his way and we have nothing to worry about.

Eventually, not saying that we're there quite yet... but the number of years in the league does take precedence over age.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Excellent analysis, Q...I don't think I disagree with any of it. I also don't hold much hope for Wig to become a versatile "do shit" kind of player, but I still think he can become a perennial all-star based on his scoring alone. His strong scoring performance his first 2 years leads me to believe he's a guy who can be a career 24-5 PPG scorer, while using his athleticism to also provide very good defense. His poor shooting start in his first two games concerns me a little, but his ability to draw fouls has led to very efficient scoring...28 points on only 24 shots. His efficiency should improve with experience and as defenses realize they have to concentrate on Kat and Zach too.

To answer Abe's question...I think Wig can be player 2A or 2B on a very good team...and perhaps even on a championship team.

[thedoper]

Were those player comps their respective stats at 20 years old? If he's already comparable to those players lifetime averages going into season 3 I'd say he's well on his way and we have nothing to worry about.

Eventually, not saying that we're there quite yet... but the number of years in the league does take precedence over age.

I agree. And after 2 years he blows most of those comps out of the water relative to their accomplishments after two years in the league, save Gay who had a great 2nd season then plateaued for the rest of his career. Gay seems to be an anomaly in this though. Most of these players continued to improve after their early years in the league, I suspect the same out of Wiggins. I think performing to the career totals of those comps after 2 years in the league and still being quite young is reason to be very optimistic.

[Porckchop]

Most if not all of those guys have likely been brought up in a "would you trade or sign this guy" thread. My guess is that many said no because they didn't play good enough defense.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Were those player comps their respective stats at 20 years old? If he's already comparable to those players lifetime averages going into season 3 I'd say he's well on his way and we have nothing to worry about.

Well, it's a bit of a mixed picture. A lot of these guys really started to assert themselves in their second year, so if you just compare 2nd year vs. 2nd year, it's not like Wiggins is cleaning up.

In terms of volume scoring/usage, there is no question Wiggins is ahead of the curve just in terms of how much his team has relied upon him for points so early in his career. Durant, 'Melo, and Irving certainly fall into that category as well, but guys like Klay Thompson, Rudy Gay, DeMar DeRozan, and even James Harden did not carry such a heavy load from the beginning.

On the other hand, many of these guys, like Wiggins, stepped up their efficiency in Year 2 and were ahead of Wiggins: Harden and Durant, for example, were much more efficient in their second year than Wiggins. And in Durant's case, he did so with even more volume than Wiggins. Of course, Durant will go down as one of the greatest scorers of all time, so there is no shame in that. Gay and Monta Ellis were equally efficient as Wiggins in their second years. Klay Thompson and DeMar DeRozan were less efficient.

I'd give Wiggins the benefit of the doubt on the efficiency front. He was asked to shoulder a huge load early on in his career and ended up being the focus of opposing defenses and having to create a lot of tough shots. My hope is that we see his efficiency continue to improve over the next couple of years as he hopefully becomes a better 3-point shooter and gets some easier baskets with other good players on the floor with him.