Evaluating the Wolves Deadline Deals

[Lipoli390]

OK, let's examine the Wolves recent deals collectively.

Here's what the Wolves gave up:

1. Wiggins
2. Covington
3. KBD
4. Jordan Bell
5. Noah Vonleh
6. Teague
7. Napier
8. Wolves 2021 first round pick (top 3 protected)
9. Wolves 2021 second round pick

Here's what the Wolves received in return:

1. DLO
2. Malik Beasley
3. Jacob Evans
4. Evan Turner
5. Omari Spellman
6. James Johnson
7. Allen Crabbe
8. The Nets 2020 first round pick, which will likely be #16 or 17.

To evaluate the all these deals collectively, let's start with the players acquired by the Wolves who will add no value to the team's play now or in the future - i.e., everyone except DLO and Malik Beasley. And Malik may not add any value beyond this already lost season because he'll be a restricted free agent who could get an offer the Wolves would not want other match. In addition to these two players, the only other value received is what will likely be the 16th or 17 pick in next June's draft.

So when you look past the clutter and filter out the noise, we're left with this: The Wolves traded Covington, Wiggins, Teague, Vonleh, Bell, KDB, Napier, Gorgui, Vonleh, Bell, our 2021 first round pick (only top 3 protected) and our 2021 second round pick for DLO, Malik Beasley and the 16th or 17th pick in the 2020 draft. Don't kid yourself into believing that Spellman, Evans, H-Gomez, Crabbe, or any of the others other than James Johnson will be around after this season. And we shouldn't want James Johnson to be around after this season. Moreover, Malik's expiring contract makes his retention uncertain. So it's hard to get too excited about these deals.

I'm not impressed with the Teague for Crabbe deal and it's not because I didn't want to lose Teague. It's failure to at least get a 2nd round pick in exchange for Teague. I'd consider Teague far more valuable to a contender than Crabbe would be to any team, including the Wolves. So this trade, in my view, was a poor use of resources and a lost opportunity to accumulate assets that could have had at least some long-term value. Allen Crabbe has absolutely no value. He looks like he's not interested in playing basketball anymore.

The Dieng deal for James Johnson is ridiculous. We get no meaningful cap relief and end up with the inferior player.

The Covington deal will be OK if Malik Beasley becomes our Malcolm Brogdon and the Wolves keep him beyond the rest of this season. Otherwise, Covington for one first round pick in the teens strikes me as a poor return for a player as coveted as RoCo by contending teams.

The Wiggins deal landed us the better fit, if not the better player. But DLO isn't an ideal fit. He's very good offensively, but he's terrible defensively and will likely make an already bad defensive team even worse. I also still have doubts about his attitude and maturity. But I'd still really like the deal if not for the fact that we gave up what will likely be a lottery pick in what's expected to be a very talented, deep draft that will include high schoolers for the first time in a long time. I like that we didn't give up our 2020 first or second round picks, but this deal implicitly includes an expectation that the Wolves will be a playoff team next season. If they are, then I'll call this deal a good one because giving up a pick in the late teens or 20s to facilitate swapping Wiggins for DLO strikes me as a good deal for the Wolves.

Best case scenario: (1) DLO continues to improve on his borderline all-star play, (2) DLO and KAT inspire each other into becoming a dynamic offensive duo that substantially elevates the team's overall play; (3) Malik Beasley becomes our version of Malcolm Brogdon and re-signs for a reasonable amount comparable to RoCo's contract; and (4) the Wolves end up in the playoffs next season so we don't lose what could have been a great player in what will likely be a very good deep draft. Of course, getting to the playoffs next season will require further improvements to the roster AND a new, much better head coach.

I do think the Wolves will be better the rest of this season. DLO will be a significant improvement over Wiggins for this team and I expect an KAT to take his game to another level with the inspiration of having a quality PG who also happens to be one of his best friends. I also think Beasley will help significantly as a wing who is actually a good three-point shooter. I'm expecting the Wolves to go on a major winning streak starting Saturday night against the Clippers. Unfortunately, all this will undermine the tanking strategy and will likely take the Wolves from a top 5 pick to a pick in the 6-11 range next June.

[bleedspeed]

Great write up. I would have felt a lot better about this team if we had Covington and Giorgi still here. The Covington trade only made sense if we needed the pick to get DLO. Which we didn't. I would have also rather traded a top 5 protected pick this year than our pick next year. I think you add in the trade to move up to get Culver was also a huge flop. That was a deal you sit on until you pick and your guy is there. I just don't see how you can spin anything that has happened with Rosa as a good move.

We even botched the free agency courting of DLO. What kind of draft pick is DLO worth without a player attached?

That said I didn't see Wiggin's contract as completely worthless. If you could have figured out a way to keep him and get DLO we actually would have been moving towards a better team.