Mr. Brightside wrote:AbeVigodaLive wrote:CoolBreeze44 wrote:AbeVigodaLive wrote:CoolBreeze44 wrote:AbeVigodaLive wrote:CoolBreeze44 wrote:AbeVigodaLive wrote:Mr. Brightside wrote:No thanks on Ibaka. All advanced statistics show he does not make his teams better. And for $25 million? Nope.
To be fair, Ibaka has never finished a season on a team below .500. And he's started virtually his entire career. We can search for stats to suggest he has nothing to do with that... and probably find some to support that narrative. But we might be pushing a confirmation bias with that search.
"Take that for data!"
To be fair, he's played with some great players. Felton Spencer would have been on all .500 or better teams under the same circumstances.
Ummm. No.
I don't know what else to tell you. We seem to be very very far apart on this... and I'm not even advocating bringing in Ibaka to the Wolves.
Really? Westbrook and Durant wouldn't have gotten OKC above .500 without Ibaka? Toronto with Lowry and Derozan would be under .500 without Ibaka? Please explain.
Wait. I think we're just disconnecting here. I'm talking specifically about the comment that he's essentially Felton Spencer out there. No. He's not. Not even close.
Ibaka isn't just a guy on a .500 team. He was a starter on teams that won at a 55 - 60-win pace (.700) FIVE times in 7 seasons. They won "only" 50 games when Ibaka was a rookie coming off the bench. And they won "only" 45 games in a season where Durant missed 65 games. Westbrook missed 15 games. And Ibaka missed 18 games.
No, I'm definitely not saying he was Felton Spencer. I'm saying that players with far less talent than Ibaka could have been .500 on those teams. Ibaka, while a certain contributor, isn't the reason those teams were at least .500.
Ok. Now that we that settled...
My point stands for Mr. Brightside who claimed Ibaka hasn't made his teams better. I disagree entirely with that. A 3rd or even 4th option who doesn't need the ball much... plays good pick-and-roll defense... leads the league in blocks... hits between 47% - 57% of his shots... etc. That guy has value. That guy helps good teams be good or even great.
Ibaka absolutely provides value. However, he's clearly on the downslope of his career when looking at the numbers. So for $25 million a year, I don't want him.
His blocked shots rate has decreased every year since the 11-12 season. He's not an elite rebounder and never has been. He had a career year shooting the ball from deep this year and has developed into an above average to very good shooter. His offensive rating continues to decline while his defensive rating continues to rise. His win shares continue to drop. His VORP continues to drop.
His usage continues to increase every season and was above 20% this year. I would not consider that someone who "doesn't need the ball much." It's not high usage but it certainly isn't low.
Ibaka is not the same player that was a catalyst when OKC made the finals. He's not even OKC Ibaka. He's a nice player who would potentially be a nice fit. But I would not be comfortable paying a guy $25 million a year who clearly peaked 4-5 seasons ago. If I'm paying $25 million, I want a guy who would give the Wolves a huge boost. A guy who is elite at at least 1-2 areas. Ibaka was that guy at one point. He isn't now.
Neither would I... as I wrote. I don't know if anybody here is willing to pay him $25M.
ALL of my Ibaka apologist stuff in this thread centered around (1) claims he adds no value to a team. (2) is basically Felton Spencer. We all know he adds value... even with a diminishing return. At what cost is the question...
Personally, I might give him $25M for each year in a 2-year contract. But that largely depends on other factors about who's out there and at what cost. It's not like the Wolves/Taylor can't afford it and it wouldn't hurt down the line. He can play defense, both at the rim and in the PnR. And he can space the floor offensively... in fact, statistically, he'd be the Wolves best three point shooter. 39.1% on 4.0 attempts this season.
Anything more than that... and the team would be overpaying for a player on the wrong slope that could impact keeping young players with more promise down the line.
[RIDICULOUS STATS: Don't count on Ibaka to help with moving the ball. And don't be fooled by his 6 assists in Game 2 of the playoffs on Tuesday. That was a career high. He's so against passing... he's only reached 5 assists one other time. He's only reached 4 assists 8 times in 694 games. He's never averaged above 1.0 assists per game in a season.]