You're On the Clock at #7: What Would You Do?

[kekgeek]

I am a headline reader but ESPN just did an article saying Issac is #1 on their board based on analytics.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I know so little about these guys except what I read... their measurements... and a few glimpses on tv.

But with Wiggins and KAT and even LaVine... I dig the idea of a long, versatile WILLING defender who doesn't demand the basketball. If Isaac can become a Patrick Patterson or Marvin Williams type player... win.

I think that's kind of what I saw as a ceiling. I guess I was just hoping for more.

Sure. But I think EVERYBODY here would say the Wolves finally have their foundation players. What type of player complements them?

I want KAT as a 5... not a 4. Otherwise, you're wasting part of what differentiates him. With Isaac you can go "small" without losing much "length"...

Maybe? As noted, it's such an inexact science. I've never been too much of a draft guy. I've been both right and wrong with my takes... just like everybody else.



[Note: The only one I was 99.3% confident about was Hasheem Thabeet being a bust. No big man at the college level should be on the ground as much as he was in a huge rivalry game like the one I watched.]

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I mean...Isaac is 6'11. How many guys that big move like a top end wing? Not many. If you put a wing on him he'll be able to shot over him with ease and if you put a big on him he appears at least to me to be quick enough to get around a lot of bigs in the NBA. He's not as quick as say a Jackson or Tatum, but he's got major height and length over both of them making him a great candidate as a combo forward long-term whereas Jackson and Tatum are true wings. If Isaac could move like Jackson or Tatum he'd be the number 1 pick hands down. So you sacrifice some quickness with a guy as big as he is, but he can handle the ball and shoot the ball and at his specific measurements it provides matchup problems for most of the guys teams could put on him.

I think this is a good point. In the NBA he may be a positional tweener though that is my counter. Could be too slow to play the 3 and too weak to play the 4 at a super high level. He's an NBA player no doubt, just looks more like 2nd unit speed and athleticism to me. It could flip and he could be the matchup problem as you state. I am just failing to see the bounce I was expecting when looking at the tape. Obviously this is not a perfect science.

Remember the league is transitioning into a new type of "4"...

Harrison Barnes is a 4. Teams want guys like Paul George and Carmelo Anthony at the 4. The days of Antonio Davis next to Dale Davis are long gone (outside of New Orleans).

I'll add that he's too weak to play the 4 now. That may not be the case in 2-3-4 years. He's definitely a project coming off the bench for a few years, but the upside is huge as a 4 for him as a guy who stretches the floor, rebounds the ball and blocks shots. Imagine if John Henson could stretch the floor to the 3pt line. That's my optimistic scenario.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Take Isaac and give him an Iowa Energy jersey immediately.

We won 60 games over the last two years. I would hope we could find somone at #7 in a deep draft that could actually contribute on the court this year. It's not like we're the Celtics with depth at every position.

Agreed. I think Issac or Collins could give us as many minutes a night as Brown gives the Celtics.

I like both these guys and would be OK if we drafted and kept either one. But don't kid yourself....both will be a liability on the court next year. I have no doubt in my mind. We can't afford to play either guy major minutes next season.

Just about all rookies struggle their first year in the league. But every year you have a small set of guys who make an impact, we've had a couple the last 3 years. There is a difference between playing a rookie major minutes and stashing him away in the D league. Why can't you bring a guy along slowly by ramping up his court time as it is earned? I don't see it as either you play major minutes right away, or you have to go to the D league. Maybe a guy like Isaac or Collins would get 10 minutes at the beginning of the year. You can both mature and contribute at a level of 10 minutes per night.

Mmmm, perhaps there are some shades of gray here. I'm not suggesting whatever rookie(s) we draft spend the entire year in the D-League. I just don't want him in the regular 9-man rotation to start the year, the same way Dunn was, for example, to start last season.

I'd be fine with Tyus-like playing time, provided it's earned.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Take Isaac and give him an Iowa Energy jersey immediately.

We won 60 games over the last two years. I would hope we could find somone at #7 in a deep draft that could actually contribute on the court this year. It's not like we're the Celtics with depth at every position.

Agreed. I think Issac or Collins could give us as many minutes a night as Brown gives the Celtics.

I like both these guys and would be OK if we drafted and kept either one. But don't kid yourself....both will be a liability on the court next year. I have no doubt in my mind. We can't afford to play either guy major minutes next season.

Just about all rookies struggle their first year in the league. But every year you have a small set of guys who make an impact, we've had a couple the last 3 years. There is a difference between playing a rookie major minutes and stashing him away in the D league. Why can't you bring a guy along slowly by ramping up his court time as it is earned? I don't see it as either you play major minutes right away, or you have to go to the D league. Maybe a guy like Isaac or Collins would get 10 minutes at the beginning of the year. You can both mature and contribute at a level of 10 minutes per night.

Jaylen Brown was considered very raw. He earned minutes as a key rotation player on a #1 seed.

He might play even more in the Conference Finals because of his size, length and ability on defense.

He's the Celtics "best hope" for LeBron James.

Jaylen Brown had a pretty meh year. He had the worst net rating on the team (-2.2). Fortunately, he played on a great team that could withstand his mediocrity.

By the way, he will look like a a small child next to LeBron.

[Monster]

Take Isaac and give him an Iowa Energy jersey immediately.

We won 60 games over the last two years. I would hope we could find somone at #7 in a deep draft that could actually contribute on the court this year. It's not like we're the Celtics with depth at every position.

Agreed. I think Issac or Collins could give us as many minutes a night as Brown gives the Celtics.

I like both these guys and would be OK if we drafted and kept either one. But don't kid yourself....both will be a liability on the court next year. I have no doubt in my mind. We can't afford to play either guy major minutes next season.

Just about all rookies struggle their first year in the league. But every year you have a small set of guys who make an impact, we've had a couple the last 3 years. There is a difference between playing a rookie major minutes and stashing him away in the D league. Why can't you bring a guy along slowly by ramping up his court time as it is earned? I don't see it as either you play major minutes right away, or you have to go to the D league. Maybe a guy like Isaac or Collins would get 10 minutes at the beginning of the year. You can both mature and contribute at a level of 10 minutes per night.

Mmmm, perhaps there are some shades of gray here. I'm not suggesting whatever rookie(s) we draft spend the entire year in the D-League. I just don't want him in the regular 9-man rotation to start the year, the same way Dunn was, for example, to start last season.

I'd be fine with Tyus-like playing time, provided it's earned.

I'll just throw in that Tyus probably earned playing time this season.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Take Isaac and give him an Iowa Energy jersey immediately.

We won 60 games over the last two years. I would hope we could find somone at #7 in a deep draft that could actually contribute on the court this year. It's not like we're the Celtics with depth at every position.

Agreed. I think Issac or Collins could give us as many minutes a night as Brown gives the Celtics.

I like both these guys and would be OK if we drafted and kept either one. But don't kid yourself....both will be a liability on the court next year. I have no doubt in my mind. We can't afford to play either guy major minutes next season.

Just about all rookies struggle their first year in the league. But every year you have a small set of guys who make an impact, we've had a couple the last 3 years. There is a difference between playing a rookie major minutes and stashing him away in the D league. Why can't you bring a guy along slowly by ramping up his court time as it is earned? I don't see it as either you play major minutes right away, or you have to go to the D league. Maybe a guy like Isaac or Collins would get 10 minutes at the beginning of the year. You can both mature and contribute at a level of 10 minutes per night.

Jaylen Brown was considered very raw. He earned minutes as a key rotation player on a #1 seed.

He might play even more in the Conference Finals because of his size, length and ability on defense.

He's the Celtics "best hope" for LeBron James.

Jaylen Brown had a pretty meh year. He had the worst net rating on the team (-2.2). Fortunately, he played on a great team that could withstand his mediocrity.

By the way, he will look like a a small child next to LeBron.

I'm not saying he's a world beater... at all... but he came in allegedly very raw. He's improved his shooting from college to the pros... fg%... 3fg%... ft%.

He's become part of the rotation on a #1 seed.

Yes, he hit a bit of a rookie wall. And he's prone to rookie mistakes (not boxing out on a free throw in the 4th quarter of Game 7). But he is making a very real difference in very important games. He's trusted by his coach. Look at Oubre in Washington. He got about one minute in Game 7?

I full expect him to be played off the floor by LeBron James beginning tonight. That he's even put in that position is telling to me.

Here are some interesting stats about his defense... and versatility.

vs. post-up: (98% percentile)
vs. Spot-up: (90%)
vs. PnR handler: (77%)
vs. PnR screener: (70%)
vs. off screen: (78%)
vs. isolation: (58%)

He's above average in virtually every action he's been put in as a defender. As a rookie.



[Note: That being said... I think he's moved this summer.]

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Abe, I haven't done the full break down of Brown's stats, just the big stuff (win shares, PER, and net rating) - they are all "meh".

It does sound like he was effective defensively given a fairly narrow role and that he has indeed come on more in the playoffs.

One thing about Brown is among the young rookies drafted last year, he was considered one of the more physically ready players in the draft.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

I mean...Isaac is 6'11. How many guys that big move like a top end wing? Not many. If you put a wing on him he'll be able to shot over him with ease and if you put a big on him he appears at least to me to be quick enough to get around a lot of bigs in the NBA. He's not as quick as say a Jackson or Tatum, but he's got major height and length over both of them making him a great candidate as a combo forward long-term whereas Jackson and Tatum are true wings. If Isaac could move like Jackson or Tatum he'd be the number 1 pick hands down. So you sacrifice some quickness with a guy as big as he is, but he can handle the ball and shoot the ball and at his specific measurements it provides matchup problems for most of the guys teams could put on him.

I think this is a good point. In the NBA he may be a positional tweener though that is my counter. Could be too slow to play the 3 and too weak to play the 4 at a super high level. He's an NBA player no doubt, just looks more like 2nd unit speed and athleticism to me. It could flip and he could be the matchup problem as you state. I am just failing to see the bounce I was expecting when looking at the tape. Obviously this is not a perfect science.

Remember the league is transitioning into a new type of "4"...

Harrison Barnes is a 4. Teams want guys like Paul George and Carmelo Anthony at the 4. The days of Antonio Davis next to Dale Davis are long gone (outside of New Orleans).

This is where I'm coming from. I didn't think that Issac has speed or athleticism to fight through at the 4, and certainly not the speed to be a wing. When I said weak I mean power, like explosive athletic power. Not brute force a la the Davis boys.

Agreed. The 4 is changing in terms of skill set and size in some cases, but those guys are also much quicker and still really strong and I just don't see Isaac being able to handle the strength and speed of 4s in the NBA anytime soon.

LeBron, Anthony Davis, Draymond, Blake, Aldridge, Millsap, Love, Porzingis, Favors, the Morris brothers, Thaddeus Young, Jabari, Carmelo, ZBo, Taj Gibson . . .

Almost all those guys have 20-40 pounds on Isaac or more, and while some are not as long as him, I'd guess all of them other than Love are quicker. (Aldridge and ZBo are not athletic, but they are both very skilled and have very quick hands even if their bodies and legs are not all that quick). Isaac's length could definitely help him bother guys like Millsap, Love, and the Morris brothers defensively, but I can also see a lot of those guys just overpowering Isaac or blowing by him. Even Paul George (who didn't really like playing the 4 last year) has 20 pounds on Isaac.

To me when I see Isaac, I see a guy with the skill set and mentality of an SG and the length of a PF, which could hypothetically be great, but with the skinny frame he has in combination with a lack of quicks, I actually see that combination as a weakness. I think he'll have the shooting and length to help stretch the floor a bit offensively, but I don't see him able to operate inside offensively because of his weak frame. That skinniness will also make it hard for him to guard 4s (let alone 5s), especially when many of them are quicker than him.

And for those who point to Isaac's length, remember that although Anunoby won't be the shooter Isaac should become, he's got that strength and quickness, and his wingspan is actually longer than Isaac's (though his overhead reach is, as Lip knows!, not quite as high as Isaac's).

Also, again, for those who are interested in stats on these forwards, I made a chart using the DX per 40 pace adjusted stats. These are not advanced stats. But it's tough to see how Isaac's basic stats could lead him to be considered the number 1 player according to advanced stats. According to the stats, the guys we should be talking a lot more about are John Collins and Swanigan.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Bz3yN9KcrJzjaG5ESzYwVnp5OGc

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I mean...Isaac is 6'11. How many guys that big move like a top end wing? Not many. If you put a wing on him he'll be able to shot over him with ease and if you put a big on him he appears at least to me to be quick enough to get around a lot of bigs in the NBA. He's not as quick as say a Jackson or Tatum, but he's got major height and length over both of them making him a great candidate as a combo forward long-term whereas Jackson and Tatum are true wings. If Isaac could move like Jackson or Tatum he'd be the number 1 pick hands down. So you sacrifice some quickness with a guy as big as he is, but he can handle the ball and shoot the ball and at his specific measurements it provides matchup problems for most of the guys teams could put on him.

I think this is a good point. In the NBA he may be a positional tweener though that is my counter. Could be too slow to play the 3 and too weak to play the 4 at a super high level. He's an NBA player no doubt, just looks more like 2nd unit speed and athleticism to me. It could flip and he could be the matchup problem as you state. I am just failing to see the bounce I was expecting when looking at the tape. Obviously this is not a perfect science.

Remember the league is transitioning into a new type of "4"...

Harrison Barnes is a 4. Teams want guys like Paul George and Carmelo Anthony at the 4. The days of Antonio Davis next to Dale Davis are long gone (outside of New Orleans).

This is where I'm coming from. I didn't think that Issac has speed or athleticism to fight through at the 4, and certainly not the speed to be a wing. When I said weak I mean power, like explosive athletic power. Not brute force a la the Davis boys.

Agreed. The 4 is changing in terms of skill set and size in some cases, but those guys are also much quicker and still really strong and I just don't see Isaac being able to handle the strength and speed of 4s in the NBA anytime soon.

LeBron, Anthony Davis, Draymond, Blake, Aldridge, Millsap, Love, Porzingis, Favors, the Morris brothers, Thaddeus Young, Jabari, Carmelo, ZBo, Taj Gibson . . .

Almost all those guys have 20-40 pounds on Isaac or more, and while some are not as long as him, I'd guess all of them other than Love are quicker. (Aldridge and ZBo are not athletic, but they are both very skilled and have very quick hands even if their bodies and legs are not all that quick). Isaac's length could definitely help him bother guys like Millsap, Love, and the Morris brothers defensively, but I can also see a lot of those guys just overpowering Isaac or blowing by him. Even Paul George (who didn't really like playing the 4 last year) has 20 pounds on Isaac.

To me when I see Isaac, I see a guy with the skill set and mentality of an SG and the length of a PF, which could hypothetically be great, but with the skinny frame he has in combination with a lack of quicks, I actually see that combination as a weakness. I think he'll have the shooting and length to help stretch the floor a bit offensively, but I don't see him able to operate inside offensively because of his weak frame. That skinniness will also make it hard for him to guard 4s (let alone 5s), especially when many of them are quicker than him.

And for those who point to Isaac's length, remember that although Anunoby won't be the shooter Isaac should become, he's got that strength and quickness, and his wingspan is actually longer than Isaac's (though his overhead reach is, as Lip knows!, not quite as high as Isaac's).

Also, again, for those who are interested in stats on these forwards, I made a chart using the DX per 40 pace adjusted stats. These are not advanced stats. But it's tough to see how Isaac's basic stats could lead him to be considered the number 1 player according to advanced stats. According to the stats, the guys we should be talking a lot more about are John Collins and Swanigan.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Bz3yN9KcrJzjaG5ESzYwVnp5OGc

Your whole post is based on who he is today as a 19 year old. How many 19 year olds come in physically ready for the league? The answer is almost none. He's still growing into his body with such a late growth spurt. Sure this year and probably next year and maybe even the year after that he's gonna be physically overwhelmed. That doesn't mean he can't give you any production and he'd be unplayable until he puts on 30 lbs. He'll still be a mismatch offensively and frankly he's a support piece right now anyway. Towns/Wiggins/Lavine are gonna be carrying the load. That will give Isaac the time to develop and maybe become a go to guy himself down the road.