Ricky is Awesome

[Monster]

After watching the OKC game here are some thoughts on Rubio being a more positive player lately.

There are a few chicken or the egg type things when it comes to him.

For whatever reason Rubio has been playing better regardless of how he has been used. That started plenty of games ago before any changes started.

As for his elbow...I did notice a couple games ago he swiped down on a player on defense near the rim and he was grimacing while running that area. Maybe it's pretty much healed maybe it isn't I just found observed it and thought it was a bit interesting.

Wiggins has been less effective given the ball as a playmaker. The rate of him turning it over just going against guys seems to have gone up. I don't have stats but it seems that way. Espcially the last 3 or so games late Thibs has basically called that stuff off of Wiggins hasn't made a good play. Like Lip said in his report they went to Wiggins and he wasn't successful and so it was back to Rubio. To Wiggins credit he made a nice dive to the hoop one of the next possessions and was fed for an easy bucket. I think giving Wiggins those opportunities to make plays is good but if he isn't succeeding it isn't helping anyone. Rubio has gotten more opportunities. With lavine out he clearly gets more of the ball dince Rush doesn't really handle the ball anywhere near like lavine would.

Another change in how Rubio has worked is he started spacing out for 3's...and for a few games that was working. Then it wasn't. The last few games Thibs has seemed to be setting up plays for Rubio to cut off the ball gettting it in the painted area sometimes with opportunities to score (which Rubio passes up too often) but also he gets the ball sometimes there and it makes the defense have to react. It seems like Thibs has told Rubio to be more aggressive as a 2 point shooter and scorer in general. Rubio has been much less passive attacking the defense and it isn't just to pass he has looked to score on guys more...it seems. It seems teams are at times less certain what Tubio is going to do so they have not just jumped what they think he and the wolves would do and that's opened things up for Rubio and other players. I think there has been some coaching both in sets and telling Rubio when to attack that's been a factor.

Jon K who has a good relationship with Rubio and is a Rubio guy (has been very consistant this year that Rubio hasn't played all that well) said one of the issues for Rubio was because he wasn't playing well the first chunknofnthebaeason he wasn't doing much leading either because he felt like it was hard to say things when he wasn't playing well. He said that as he has been playing well feeling more comfortable that he has taken on that role more. Obviously that's pretty significant because this team needs leadership.

So it's really a bunch of things coming together. Rubio is a unique player positive and negative. After the OKC game he posted on Instagram a pic of him and Towns sharing a moment on the court with the caption "we are building something good here" and the link to vote for Towns.

https://instagram.com/p/BPO3YBaB_UO/

I still think it's possible Rubio ends up being here long term regardless if he is a starter or backup. Dunn Rubio and Tyus could all end up being players that could fill different roles. Imagine in a playoff game subbing Dunn and Rubio in and out offense and defense espcially if Dunn can't hit a higher percentage of his FTs. Regardless Rubio playing well is a good thing for the Wolves.

[Lipoli390]

After watching the OKC game here are some thoughts on Rubio being a more positive player lately.

There are a few chicken or the egg type things when it comes to him.

For whatever reason Rubio has been playing better regardless of how he has been used. That started plenty of games ago before any changes started.

As for his elbow...I did notice a couple games ago he swiped down on a player on defense near the rim and he was grimacing while running that area. Maybe it's pretty much healed maybe it isn't I just found observed it and thought it was a bit interesting.

Wiggins has been less effective given the ball as a playmaker. The rate of him turning it over just going against guys seems to have gone up. I don't have stats but it seems that way. Espcially the last 3 or so games late Thibs has basically called that stuff off of Wiggins hasn't made a good play. Like Lip said in his report they went to Wiggins and he wasn't successful and so it was back to Rubio. To Wiggins credit he made a nice dive to the hoop one of the next possessions and was fed for an easy bucket. I think giving Wiggins those opportunities to make plays is good but if he isn't succeeding it isn't helping anyone. Rubio has gotten more opportunities. With lavine out he clearly gets more of the ball dince Rush doesn't really handle the ball anywhere near like lavine would.

Another change in how Rubio has worked is he started spacing out for 3's...and for a few games that was working. Then it wasn't. The last few games Thibs has seemed to be setting up plays for Rubio to cut off the ball gettting it in the painted area sometimes with opportunities to score (which Rubio passes up too often) but also he gets the ball sometimes there and it makes the defense have to react. It seems like Thibs has told Rubio to be more aggressive as a 2 point shooter and scorer in general. Rubio has been much less passive attacking the defense and it isn't just to pass he has looked to score on guys more...it seems. It seems teams are at times less certain what Tubio is going to do so they have not just jumped what they think he and the wolves would do and that's opened things up for Rubio and other players. I think there has been some coaching both in sets and telling Rubio when to attack that's been a factor.

Jon K who has a good relationship with Rubio and is a Rubio guy (has been very consistant this year that Rubio hasn't played all that well) said one of the issues for Rubio was because he wasn't playing well the first chunknofnthebaeason he wasn't doing much leading either because he felt like it was hard to say things when he wasn't playing well. He said that as he has been playing well feeling more comfortable that he has taken on that role more. Obviously that's pretty significant because this team needs leadership.

So it's really a bunch of things coming together. Rubio is a unique player positive and negative. After the OKC game he posted on Instagram a pic of him and Towns sharing a moment on the court with the caption "we are building something good here" and the link to vote for Towns.

https://instagram.com/p/BPO3YBaB_UO/

I still think it's possible Rubio ends up being here long term regardless if he is a starter or backup. Dunn Rubio and Tyus could all end up being players that could fill different roles. Imagine in a playoff game subbing Dunn and Rubio in and out offense and defense espcially if Dunn can't hit a higher percentage of his FTs. Regardless Rubio playing well is a good thing for the Wolves.

Monster -- I think this is the best analysis I've read of Ricky in relation to both this season and the future. Nice job! As you noted, there is definitely a possibility that Ricky could still be part of this team long term even if Dunn eventually supplants him as starter, and as we've seen, Dunn still has a long way to go to be considered a legitimate much less good starting PG. Ricky's contract is reasonable by current NBA standards and he's not going to be in a position to command anything close to a max deal. He's loyal, doesn't have a big ego and he really likes it here. He's the ultimate team player and that's not an easy thing to find these days. Like any player, the notion of trading him depends on who you get in return. But for now and into the foreseeable future, I see him as an important part of this team -- with the understanding that the ultimate fate of this team rests on the development and play of our core three - KAT, Zach and Andrew.

[Duke13]

Confidence is huge, he looks to have gained some the last handful of games. Nice write up monster!

[TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]]

Strangely strength of schedule has not been brought up in analyzing Ricky's advanced stats==> Ricky missed five games of a soft schedule that included the Memphis B squad game and games against Brooklyn, Orlando & Denver (OKC was the only team that used its starters and had a winning record in that stretch). The starters in the Memphis B squad game all racked up on average +30 plus. If you factored this game out, Ricky probably is in the top 3 of plus minus stats for the team. Anyway, maybe we are beating a dead horse now, but that is why I favor RPM which would discount racking up plus/minus stats against inferior competition.

[Duke13]

Beating a dead horse!! No way, please go dig up some more stats! Sarcasm

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Strangely strength of schedule has not been brought up in analyzing Ricky's advanced stats==> Ricky missed five games of a soft schedule that included the Memphis B squad game and games against Brooklyn, Orlando & Denver (OKC was the only team that used its starters and had a winning record in that stretch). The starters in the Memphis B squad game all racked up on average +30 plus. If you factored this game out, Ricky probably is in the top 3 of plus minus stats for the team. Anyway, maybe we are beating a dead horse now, but that is why I favor RPM which would discount racking up plus/minus stats against inferior competition.

6 games overtaking an entire half-season of games. What a joke, but please keep going. What other basketball-reference stat supports your opinion?

[TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]]

Strangely strength of schedule has not been brought up in analyzing Ricky's advanced stats==> Ricky missed five games of a soft schedule that included the Memphis B squad game and games against Brooklyn, Orlando & Denver (OKC was the only team that used its starters and had a winning record in that stretch). The starters in the Memphis B squad game all racked up on average +30 plus. If you factored this game out, Ricky probably is in the top 3 of plus minus stats for the team. Anyway, maybe we are beating a dead horse now, but that is why I favor RPM which would discount racking up plus/minus stats against inferior competition.

6 games overtaking an entire half-season of games. What a joke, but please keep going. What other basketball-reference stat supports your opinion?

I never claimed that I just pointed out why I believe RPM is a superior stat. Ricky is 3rd on the team in RPM and its a better indicator of his on court value than anything else posted in this thread. What's with the not so subtle digs. Does mentioning positive things about Ricky make you hostile?

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Strangely strength of schedule has not been brought up in analyzing Ricky's advanced stats==> Ricky missed five games of a soft schedule that included the Memphis B squad game and games against Brooklyn, Orlando & Denver (OKC was the only team that used its starters and had a winning record in that stretch). The starters in the Memphis B squad game all racked up on average +30 plus. If you factored this game out, Ricky probably is in the top 3 of plus minus stats for the team. Anyway, maybe we are beating a dead horse now, but that is why I favor RPM which would discount racking up plus/minus stats against inferior competition.

6 games overtaking an entire half-season of games. What a joke, but please keep going. What other basketball-reference stat supports your opinion?

I never claimed that I just pointed out why I believe RPM is a superior stat. Ricky is 3rd on the team in RPM and its a better indicator of his on court value than anything else posted in this thread. What's with the not so subtle digs. Does mentioning positive things about Ricky make you hostile?

Say all the positive things you want about Ricky, but trashing stats that contradict you and saying they don't matter as much as yours or aren't as good as yours is what makes me hostile. Maybe if you didn't make basketball reference out to be the bible of basketball stats when other sites like NBA.com go way deeper into stats to paint a fuller picture I wouldn't be so hostile. Your stats aren't better than the rest of our stats. They're just another way to look at player performance so stop acting like you're right and the rest of us are wrong and you won't get hostile responses.

[MikkeMan]

Ricky, I appreciate all the work you've done here to defend your guy. The reason why using box score +/- can also be misleading is that it doesn't account for pace of play. So for example, if two players in two separate games each are a +5 in 30 minutes of play, but one game played at a faster pace than the other with more possessions, the guy with the +5 in the slower paced game did better (relatively speaking).

That's why per 100 possessions are used in the NBA.com Ortg and Drtg stats, because it normalizes for pace of play. Yes, there are some quirks in how a possession is defined and then applied to the player in question, but I find this method to be the most accurate when it comes to measuring plus-minus.

All of that being said, I won't argue with your "preponderance of evidence" methodology. I take the same view - look at multiple advanced stats combined with the eye test and draw a conclusion from the aggregate picture it takes. However, there is still room for subjectivity, bias, and mystery! Therefore there is always room for differing opinions.

Q, I think that the biggest reason why pure +/- is not that good metric for how well team performs while certain player is in court, is that especially in the end of quarters and game, teams might use different players for defensive and offensive possessions. So naturally those whom get subbed in for defensive possession will get worse +/- than those whom will get subbed in for offensive possessions.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Strangely strength of schedule has not been brought up in analyzing Ricky's advanced stats==> Ricky missed five games of a soft schedule that included the Memphis B squad game and games against Brooklyn, Orlando & Denver (OKC was the only team that used its starters and had a winning record in that stretch). The starters in the Memphis B squad game all racked up on average +30 plus. If you factored this game out, Ricky probably is in the top 3 of plus minus stats for the team. Anyway, maybe we are beating a dead horse now, but that is why I favor RPM which would discount racking up plus/minus stats against inferior competition.

6 games overtaking an entire half-season of games. What a joke, but please keep going. What other basketball-reference stat supports your opinion?

I never claimed that I just pointed out why I believe RPM is a superior stat. Ricky is 3rd on the team in RPM and its a better indicator of his on court value than anything else posted in this thread. What's with the not so subtle digs. Does mentioning positive things about Ricky make you hostile?

Say all the positive things you want about Ricky, but trashing stats that contradict you and saying they don't matter as much as yours or aren't as good as yours is what makes me hostile. Maybe if you didn't make basketball reference out to be the bible of basketball stats when other sites like NBA.com go way deeper into stats to paint a fuller picture I wouldn't be so hostile. Your stats aren't better than the rest of our stats. They're just another way to look at player performance so stop acting like you're right and the rest of us are wrong and you won't get hostile responses.

Sometimes, I think TeamRicky is flirting with trolling with this stuff. We have so few trolls here... but he can be so disingenuous that assuming he's doing a bit of light trolling is probably the best case scenario.