The Case for Patience

[Lipoli390]

I know there are some itching to trade our pick and one of our core players for a veteran like Jimmy Butler. No doubt trading our pick and LaVine for Butler as an example would significantly improve the team in the short run. But after two years he'd be 30 years old, about 6 years older than the other two core pieces of the team, KAT and Wiggins. Moreover, he'd be in a position to leave as a FA and it would cost a ton to re-sign him given his years in the League. Underlying the call for a trade like that is a combination of impatience and doubts about the young core we currently have. My view is that we need to trust the young core we have, be patient with their development, add even more young talent through the draft this year and use free agency to supplement our core with solid veterans who can help us right away.

To test this strategy I looked at three teams that went from bottom feeders to elite teams by building organically through the draft -- The MJ-era Chicago Bulls, Durant-era OKC Thunder, and Golden State Warriors. Each team made a huge leap from one season to the next -- from a sub-.500 lottery team to a 45+-win playoff team. All of them had their best player already on the roster during their final sub-.500 lottery season and all of them took the huge one-season leap without adding any game-changing vets. Here's a summary of what I found:

Bulls:

Had a 38-44 record in the 84-85 season, which was MJ's rookie campaign. They fell to 30-52 the following 85-86 season when MJ missed all but 8 games of the season with a foot injury. I've ignored the that 85-86 season since MJ was out the whole season. The Bulls record climbed slighted in 86-87 to 40-42, a two game improvement over MJ's rookie season. Then suddenly in the 87-88 season, the Bulls record shot up to 50-32. It was MJ's 2nd active NBA season. So what changed between the 40-win and 50-win seasons? Did the Bulls add any impact vets that really turned things around for them? No. Who of significance did the Bulls add? They added two rookies named Scottie Pippen and Horace Grant. Those two teamed up with MJ in his 2nd active season, Charles Oakley in his 3rd season and Brad Sellers in his 2nd season to win 50 games. Sure they had the 10-year vet Dave Corzine, but they had him the previously two seasons when they one 30 games and 40 games respectively.

OKC Thunder:

The Thunder won 23 games in 2008-09, which was Durant's 2nd season and Westbrook's rookie season. The following season, their record shot up to 50-32. What changed between those two seasons? Well, Durant and Westbrook were more experienced, entering their 3rd and 2nd seasons respectively in the NBA. Here's who the Thunder added to their roster. First, they added 4 rookies - James Harden, Ibaka, Byron Miller's and Antonio Anderson. They also added a 13-year vet named Kevin Ollie and a 10-year vet named Ryan Bowen. Ollie and Bowen were gone the next season when the Thunder were even better, winning 55 games. So there's really no debate. The difference between the Thunder's 23-win season and their break-out 50 win season the next year was the addition of two really talented rookies named James Harden and Serge Ibaka along with the continued development of Kevin Durant in his 3rd NBA season and Westbrook in his 2nd. Those 4 young talented players teamed with Sefalosha in his 4th season, Jeff Green in his 3rd season, Kristin in his 6th season and Collison in his 6th to win 50 games.

GS Warriors:

The Warriors won 23 games in the 2011-12 season with Curry in his 3rd year. Note that Curry missed a big chunk of the season with injury, which probably explains the team's drop from 36 wins the year before. Curry was clearly a difference-maker already, but it was equally clear he wasn't enough to make the Warriors more than a lottery team even when teamed with vets like Monta Ellis, Biedrins and David Lee. Following their 23-win flop in 2011-12, the Warriors record shot up to 47-35 in 2012-13. So what changed from the 23-win season to the 47-win season the following year? I think you all already know the answer. That year, the Warriors added five rookies to their roster -- Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes, Bazemore and Ezeli. The also 5-year vet Carl Landry and 7-year vet Andrew Bogut. But note that Bogut only played 32 games due to injury. Landry was an important contributor off the bench at 23 minutes per game. But the material difference between the 23-win lottery dweller and the 47-win contender was obviously the addition of rookies Thompson and Green primarily as well as, to a lesser extent, rookie Barnes. Oh, I shouldn't leave out the fact that Curry was healthy and entering his 4th season.

The punch line is this. It's all about talent. Talent is honed over time through experience. But the difference between being a lottery or borderline lottery team versus a contending playoff team is talent. Yes, Jimmy Butler is talented. And he's had many years in the league to develop that talent. But trading less experienced talent in LaVine or Wiggins for more experienced talent isn't the answer to getting out of the lottery on a sustained and potentially championship-contending basis. The Bulls, Thunder and Warriors showed patience and it paid off. Their best young player who was first in the door - MJ, Durant, Curry -- all got better with experience while the team added even more young talent who were of similar age. Then, when the critical mass of talent was finally there, the team took off. The Bulls took off in MJ's 3rd season when he was joined by two highly talented rookies. The Thunder took off in Durant's 3rd season and Westbrook's 2nd season when they were joined by rookies Harden and Ibaka. The Warriors took off in Curry's 4th season when he was joined by rookies Thompson, Green and Barnes along with a solid but not great veteran named Carl Landry.

Looking at the Wolves, Wiggins and LaVine will be entering their 4th season, KAT his 3rd and Dunn his 2nd. Those young guys will be playing the 27-year old Gorgui Dieng in his 5th season and the 27-year old Ricky Rubio in his 6th NBA season. Based on some compelling historical evidence, my advice to the Wolves front office (and fans) is to be patient. Our core three all came to the NBA after only one year of college. Zach played limited minutes his one season in college and was set back the end of last season with a partially torn ACL. So let's add the best player available at #7, and sign a couple of solid free agents with our $20+ million in cap space. Then let's see if this team is takes off this upcoming season as these three other teams did before. I think we will, unless our front office loses its patience and does something dumb.

[Big O [enjin:13874644]]

Quit with the logic. I want this team to win before I'm forced to become a hockey fan.

[BloopOracle]

I agree with almost every except that if I can get Butler without giving up one of the big 3 I have to do it if I'm Thibs.

[Lipoli390]

Quit with the logic. I want this team to win before I'm forced to become a hockey fan.

Lol. Good one, BigO!

[Duke13]

Lip I agree with the patience from the front office and I have from the start. I wouldn't pull the trigger on a butler deal. But my question to you is, you seem to change you mind on a daily basis on what the front office should do. Now they are "dumb" if they look to get Butler. Ummm

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I agree with almost every except that if I can get Butler without giving up one of the big 3 I have to do it if I'm Thibs.

Yeah, I think I'm also on board with Lip's logic, and also agree with bloop that there isn't a combination of assets outside of the Big 3 I wouldn't give up to get Butler. But I think that's a pipe dream. I think the price tag for Butler starts at Wig plus 7 (my understanding is that they have no interest in LaVine) and I don't make that deal.

[KiwiMatt]

I've been in the patience camp for about 12 years now. Surely a couple more years can't hurt right?

[TAFKASP]

Surely a couple more years can't hurt right?

I've been saying that for the past decade, I no longer have faith in patience. Of course Thibs hasn't called to ask my opinion so patience it will be, unless he decides otherwise.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Quit with the logic. I want this team to win before I'm forced to become a hockey fan.

Lol. Good one, BigO!

Big O was joking, but seriously, 13 years without making the playoffs in a league where 16 teams go every year is comically bad.

While I don't believe in totally mortgaging the future for one player, this team could desperately use an established two-way vet.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Bottom line: If the Wolves have anybody who ends up as good as Jordan, Curry, Durant, Westbrook (all MVP winners*)... things will be just fine.

And each team also boast(ed) another All NBA player and future HOFer in that core.

The Wolves don't even have a second sure-thing All Star right now. Heck, one of the "Big 3" probably wouldn't even start for most playoff teams. I get the patience approach and I'm not advocating making a move to make the playoffs at 42 - 40 and then drop back again.

But it's extremely unlikely all three of the Big 3 evolve to the reach their ceilings AND want to stay here long-term AND gel together on the court.

I guess it all comes down to whether people think we have our Big 3 of All Star/NBA players. Personally... I think the Wolves have one great player. One probable All Star. And one longshot All Star caliber player.