longstrangetrip wrote:I'll update our future cap situation as deals continue, so we all know what Thibs might be facing in 2019-20. I'm assuming that Muhammad will clearly be gone, and there won't be any room for Gorgui's 16.2 million either so he needs to be a salary dump. So assuming these guys are gone and the Big 3 are max players, this would be our commitment in 2019-20 for just four players:
Butler $31.2
KAT 26
Wig 26
Teague 19
102.2
So, the Wolves would be almost at the cap with these four players...and no starting PF or bench. It's easy to see how the roster could put them absurdly into the lux tax without even adding any mid-range players.
I understand that anything can happen, but I also know that successful franchises have a plan that goes out further than next June...and Thibs and Leydon are smart guys, so we know they have a plan for who is going to have to go. As I said before, I think it will have to be Wig. Wig will likely deserve a max contract in 2018-19, but I think Thibs will be forced to trade Wig before having to pay him...the alternative would be to go far into the lux tax the following year when they have to pay KAT (and Butler and Teague are still on the books).
I know it's easy for us fans to spend a billionaire's money, but owners clearly look at it differently...with few exceptions they are going to refuse to pay more than a nominal lux tax. That's why there's no room for one of our highly paid four guys (or Muhammad and Gorgui) on the 2019-20 roster. Does anyone see it differently?
Teague will just be let go and we'll continue building around KAT, Wiggins and Butler. I think you are too focused on trying to keep too many players together. Pick three and the pieces around them will just change. That's what GM's do to plan for the future. 83 million for KAT, Wiggins and Towns and 37 million to build around them before you hit the tax. That's why you have to find valuable rotation guys later in the draft and sign guys to the vet minimum because you'll have 1 or 2 guys outside of the big 3 making decent money and the rest not.
khans2k5 wrote:Teague will just be let go and we'll continue building around KAT, Wiggins and Butler. I think you are too focused on trying to keep too many players together. Pick three and the pieces around them will just change. That's what GM's do to plan for the future. 83 million for KAT, Wiggins and Towns and 37 million to build around them before you hit the tax. That's why you have to find valuable rotation guys later in the draft and sign guys to the vet minimum because you'll have 1 or 2 guys outside of the big 3 making decent money and the rest not.
Teague has a player option that year so it's no slam dunk he's gone. I agree with the rest though with the possibility that they will be forced into the luxury tax for a year if Teague takes his player option.
If this team is worth spending the money on to win I think Glen figure out how to pay some lux tax. Glen has shown willingness to spend he just hasn't handed out money when he didn't think it was worth it. Sadly for over 10 years he has been mostly correct because this team has had a real lack of talent. That's why you take good young players that can develop like Patton and develop them either for yourself or to trade down the road. Teague could likely be moved if needed. Lets see what the team looks like in a few days and at least see what happens this season before freaking out about the cap in 2 years. Its also possible some of these guys take less money to keep it together and while that's optimistic its not impossible.
longstrangetrip wrote:I'll update our future cap situation as deals continue, so we all know what Thibs might be facing in 2019-20. I'm assuming that Muhammad will clearly be gone, and there won't be any room for Gorgui's 16.2 million either so he needs to be a salary dump. So assuming these guys are gone and the Big 3 are max players, this would be our commitment in 2019-20 for just four players:
Butler $31.2
KAT 26
Wig 26
Teague 19
102.2
So, the Wolves would be almost at the cap with these four players...and no starting PF or bench. It's easy to see how the roster could put them absurdly into the lux tax without even adding any mid-range players.
I understand that anything can happen, but I also know that successful franchises have a plan that goes out further than next June...and Thibs and Leydon are smart guys, so we know they have a plan for who is going to have to go. As I said before, I think it will have to be Wig. Wig will likely deserve a max contract in 2018-19, but I think Thibs will be forced to trade Wig before having to pay him...the alternative would be to go far into the lux tax the following year when they have to pay KAT (and Butler and Teague are still on the books).
I know it's easy for us fans to spend a billionaire's money, but owners clearly look at it differently...with few exceptions they are going to refuse to pay more than a nominal lux tax. That's why there's no room for one of our highly paid four guys (or Muhammad and Gorgui) on the 2019-20 roster. Does anyone see it differently?
Teague will just be let go and we'll continue building around KAT, Wiggins and Butler. I think you are too focused on trying to keep too many players together. Pick three and the pieces around them will just change. That's what GM's do to plan for the future. 83 million for KAT, Wiggins and Towns and 37 million to build around them before you hit the tax. That's why you have to find valuable rotation guys later in the draft and sign guys to the vet minimum because you'll have 1 or 2 guys outside of the big 3 making decent money and the rest not.
I think you're probably right that they won't bring Teague back after 2019-20 (as the SP said, he has a player option that year), but paying four of them plus 11 other players would put the Wolves into a Gilbert-like lux tax that year...just ain't gonna happen, so one of them has to go. That's why I see this as a sign Thibs is not sold on Wig down the line and isn't going to pay him in 2018-19. We'll have to see.
You're right, khans...I might be a little too focused on keeping too many players together...I'm a huge fan of continuity. I recognize it's difficult, but there are circumstances where teams can keep 3 stars and still build a talented roster around the stars. I always felt Ricky might take a bargain contract after his current contract is over having already made the big money, but maybe that wouldn't have happened either. I just find PG such an important role, and it feels like we will be scrambling to find one with little to spend to team with our Big 3 just as two of them are reaching their peak. Not an ideal situation.
monsterpile wrote:If this team is worth spending the money on to win I think Glen figure out how to pay some lux tax. Glen has shown willingness to spend he just hasn't handed out money when he didn't think it was worth it. Sadly for over 10 years he has been mostly correct because this team has had a real lack of talent. That's why you take good young players that can develop like Patton and develop them either for yourself or to trade down the road. Teague could likely be moved if needed. Lets see what the team looks like in a few days and at least see what happens this season before freaking out about the cap in 2 years. Its also possible some of these guys take less money to keep it together and while that's optimistic its not impossible.
I'm certain you're right that Glen and his minority investors won't have a problem paying a little lux tax...that's a given after the Butler move (which I heartily endorse). But they aren't going to pay a Gilbert-like tax, and that's what a Big 3 plus Teague will put them in...I just can't make the numbers work otherwise unless they add 11 Adreain Payne's (and nobody wants that). The reason I don't like this move is that I see it really handcuffing Thibs in three years when a championship could be on the horizon. I think he has really hurt his flexibility here rather than just staying with Rubio and adding some free agents on shorter contracts.
And the plot only thickens if Thibs adds another guy like Milsap...
monsterpile wrote:If this team is worth spending the money on to win I think Glen figure out how to pay some lux tax. Glen has shown willingness to spend he just hasn't handed out money when he didn't think it was worth it. Sadly for over 10 years he has been mostly correct because this team has had a real lack of talent. That's why you take good young players that can develop like Patton and develop them either for yourself or to trade down the road. Teague could likely be moved if needed. Lets see what the team looks like in a few days and at least see what happens this season before freaking out about the cap in 2 years. Its also possible some of these guys take less money to keep it together and while that's optimistic its not impossible.
I'm certain you're right that Glen and his minority investors won't have a problem paying a little lux tax...that's a given after the Butler move (which I heartily endorse). But they aren't going to pay a Gilbert-like tax, and that's what a Big 3 plus Teague will put them in...I just can't make the numbers work otherwise unless they add 11 Adreain Payne's (and nobody wants that). The reason I don't like this move is that I see it really handcuffing Thibs in three years when a championship could be on the horizon. I think he has really hurt his flexibility here rather than just staying with Rubio and adding some free agents on shorter contracts.
And the plot only thickens if Thibs adds another guy like Milsap...
I just don't see how we can afford to add Milsap with the rest of the roster in need of upgrade. Can any team afford 5 huge contracts, much less the Wolves?
monsterpile wrote:If this team is worth spending the money on to win I think Glen figure out how to pay some lux tax. Glen has shown willingness to spend he just hasn't handed out money when he didn't think it was worth it. Sadly for over 10 years he has been mostly correct because this team has had a real lack of talent. That's why you take good young players that can develop like Patton and develop them either for yourself or to trade down the road. Teague could likely be moved if needed. Lets see what the team looks like in a few days and at least see what happens this season before freaking out about the cap in 2 years. Its also possible some of these guys take less money to keep it together and while that's optimistic its not impossible.
I'm certain you're right that Glen and his minority investors won't have a problem paying a little lux tax...that's a given after the Butler move (which I heartily endorse). But they aren't going to pay a Gilbert-like tax, and that's what a Big 3 plus Teague will put them in...I just can't make the numbers work otherwise unless they add 11 Adreain Payne's (and nobody wants that). The reason I don't like this move is that I see it really handcuffing Thibs in three years when a championship could be on the horizon. I think he has really hurt his flexibility here rather than just staying with Rubio and adding some free agents on shorter contracts.
And the plot only thickens if Thibs adds another guy like Milsap...
What exactly was he supposed to do spend no money? Sure they may end up spending a bunch of lux tax but they may have done that in a bunch of scenarios. How much does a team take in for every playoff game? It's gotta be a nice chunk.
monsterpile wrote:If this team is worth spending the money on to win I think Glen figure out how to pay some lux tax. Glen has shown willingness to spend he just hasn't handed out money when he didn't think it was worth it. Sadly for over 10 years he has been mostly correct because this team has had a real lack of talent. That's why you take good young players that can develop like Patton and develop them either for yourself or to trade down the road. Teague could likely be moved if needed. Lets see what the team looks like in a few days and at least see what happens this season before freaking out about the cap in 2 years. Its also possible some of these guys take less money to keep it together and while that's optimistic its not impossible.
I'm certain you're right that Glen and his minority investors won't have a problem paying a little lux tax...that's a given after the Butler move (which I heartily endorse). But they aren't going to pay a Gilbert-like tax, and that's what a Big 3 plus Teague will put them in...I just can't make the numbers work otherwise unless they add 11 Adreain Payne's (and nobody wants that). The reason I don't like this move is that I see it really handcuffing Thibs in three years when a championship could be on the horizon. I think he has really hurt his flexibility here rather than just staying with Rubio and adding some free agents on shorter contracts.
And the plot only thickens if Thibs adds another guy like Milsap...
I just don't see how we can afford to add Milsap with the rest of the roster in need of upgrade. Can any team afford 5 huge contracts, much less the Wolves?
Milsap would be a sign and trade, likely in exchange for Dieng, the OKC 1st, and maybe Belly.
A starting lineup of Teague, Wig, Buckets, Milsap, and KAT! Just need to find a few league min guys to play the 5-6 minutes that Thibs uses the bench! Not entirely serious, nor entirely tongue in cheek.
