The Final Stretch

[Lipoli390]

The Wolves are currently in sole possession of 8th place in the West. Hooray...not. The worst ending to this season would be an 8th seed and sure-fire humiliating series loss to the Rockets.

Two things have become clear over the past week. First, 3rd place is no longer up for grabs as the Blazers have realistically even if not mathematically secured that position. Second, the Nuggets and Clippers have fallen off enough that, given their rosters and remaining schedules, they will not make the playoffs.

So the Wolves will finish their final 11 games of the season in a battle with 4 other teams for the 4-8 positions in the playoffs. Looking at the Wolves schedule, I see the Wolves winning 7 of their remaining 11 games. The only losses I expect are road losses against the Sixers, Mavs, Nuggets and Lakers. I expect us to win our home games against the Clippers, Hawks, Jazz, Nuggets and both home games against Memphis. That's 6 home wins along with what I expect to be a road win against the Knicks. It would be really nice if the Wolves could steal another road win against the Sixers or Mavs. But the 7 wins I expect down the stretch would leave the Wolves with a season-end record of 47-35.

Based on remaining schedules, I see the Thunder ending up 48-34, which would leave them in 4th place. I see the Pelicans, Spurs and Jazz all ending up with 47 wins. So I'm projecting a 4-way tie among the Wolves, Pelicans, Spurs and Jazz, which would mean that playoff seeding positions 4-8 would be determined by tie breakers. What is the Wolves tie-breaker situation with the Pelicans, Spurs and Jazz?

[MikkeMan]

Wolves have:
4-0 record against New Orleans
2-1 record against Utah with one home game remaining
1-2 record against San Antonio

So Wolves can finish with 7-4 or 8-3 final record

San Antonio has:
0-2 record against New Orleans with one home and one road game remaining
0-3 record against Utah with one home game remaining

San Antonio can finish with any record between 2-9 and 5-6

Utah has:
3-1 record against New Orleans

Utah can finish with any record between 7-5 and 9-3

New Orleans can finish with any record between 3-9 and 5-7.

So in four way tie situation, Wolves will for sure finish above San Antonio and New Orleans and if they win their remaining home game against Utah, they will finish also above them.

In three way tie situation between Wolves, Utah and New Orleans, Wolves will have tie breaker regardless of the results in rest of the games.

Same with three way tie situation between Wolves, San Antonio and New Orleans, Wolves will have tie breaker regardless of the results in rest of the games.

But if it will be just three way tie between Wolves, San Antonio and Utah, it is possible that Wolves have final record 3-4, Utah has record 5-3 and San Antonio has also record 3-4. I don't know what would decide tie breaker between Wolves and San Antonio in this case.

Anyway we need clearly to root that at least New Orleans would end with same record than Wolves, then Wolves have clear edge in tie breaker situation against San Antonio and Utah.

If Oklahoma will have same record than Wolves, they will also help Wolves in tie breaker situations against Utah and San Antonio.

[60WinTim]

I thought any tie-breaker involving 3 or more teams went to conference record first. Something the Wolves have been really good at!

But it's been awhile since I checked out the tie-breaker situations since it hasn't mattered for many, many years...

[Monster]

Jazz lose to the Hawks we are back in the 7th seed. This is way better than looking to see where we could end up in the lottery. We have multiple threads about these last few games and hardly and posts about the tourney and no draft thread posts since the tourney started. I don't know is this what it's gonna be like for a few years? Maybe I am not prepared for this. Lol

[Lipoli390]

Jazz lose to the Hawks we are back in the 7th seed. This is way better than looking to see where we could end up in the lottery. We have multiple threads about these last few games and hardly and posts about the tourney and no draft thread posts since the tourney started. I don't know is this what it's gonna be like for a few years? Maybe I am not prepared for this. Lol

The Jazz loss at home to the Hawks tonight was huge and, obviously, totally unexpected. It's a lesson for the Wolves to not take any opponent for granted. But I also wonder whether it might be a sign of things to come for the Jazz the rest of the way. My view is that the Jazz have been playing over their heads for a while. Yes they have some talent in Gobert, Mitchell, Ingles and Favors, but they're not as talented as the Wolves even when the Wolves are without Butler. Talent wins out in the end and sooner or later a hot team playing over its head will return to earth. I'm guessing that we saw the Jazz come back to earth tonight. And once you come down like that you generally don't go back up.

We're very fortunate the Celtics came back to beat the Thunder by a point. I had this penned in as a Thunder loss so they remain on track for 48 wins, which means the Wolves still have a decent chance of pulling ahead of them. A Thunder win tonight would have pretty much guaranteed a 4th seed for the Thunder.

Let's hope the Rockets can knock off the Blazers tonight so the 3rd seed doesn't get entirely out of range.

[crazy-canuck [enjin:18955461]]

Both the Knicks and 6ers have something we struggle with; bigs that can get to work in the paint.

I think back up c is a legit concern for us.

[Monster]

Both the Knicks and 6ers have something we struggle with; bigs that can get to work in the paint.

I think back up c is a legit concern for us.

I'd rather look to find guys to play those bigs off the floor...in other words get more shooting. The Wolves did a much better job against Jordon in the 2nd half tonight which is encouraging.

[Lipoli390]

My latest realistic projections based on schedules and how teams are playing right now:

Pelicans finish with at least 47 wins and as many as 49
Thunder finish with at least 47 wins and up to 48
Jazz finish with at least 47 and as many as 48
Spurs finish with at least 45 and as many as 47

Wolves finish with at least 47 and as many as 49.

We should absolutely win the following three home games.
1. Memphis
2. Memphis
3. Atlanta

We should win at least two of the following:
1. Utah
2. Denver
3. @Mavs
4. @Lakers

Interestingly, I think the Wolves would probably be better off finishing 7th than 6th. Curry's knee injury will likely cause him to miss the entire first round. Although Durant will likely be back from his rib injury, he'll likely still be a bit sore and might be a bit rusty. Green is also banged up. In contrast, Portland is firing on all cylinders and would be a very tough first round matchup. My obvious preference would be a 4th place finish, which is very possible. That would likely match us against either the Pelicans or Thunder in the first round and we'd have home court. I like our chances of winning the first round as a 4th seed against either of those teams, assuming Jimmy Butler returns. The next best thing to a 4th seed would be a 5th seed, which would still likely match us against the Pelicans or Thunder but without home court. I wouldn't bet on us winning the series against either one given how bad we are on the road this season. But we'd have a chance. The next best thing to a 5th seed, in my view, would be a 7th seed. I'll still take a 6th seed over an 8th place finish and a first round sweep at the hands of the Rockets.

[Monster]

Alan Horton tweeted out a nice breakdown of the WC playoff race.

https://twitter.com/wolvesradio/status/978109195160641536?s=21