Last round of regular season games

[MikkeMan]

Since I checked today how tie breakers between different teams will be decided with most probable results in next night games, I want to share this information if others will also find it interesting.

I assumed that OKC will beat Memphis at home, since they probably want to avoid 8th seed and if they lose that game, they will most probably end up 8th seed since all 4 teams San Antonio, New Orleans, Minnesota and Denver that can end with 47 wins have a tie breaker over OKC. Only combination that would result OKC getting 7th seed with a loss ´, would be if MInnesota would win and New Orleans would lose. Then all three teams would have 47 wins. Minnesota would have 7-1 record in games between teams and both OKC and New Orleans would have 2-5 record but OKC would have better conference record and thus would get 7th seed. I think OKC wants to avoid playing Houston in first round and so they will make sure that they will win Memphis.

All three other games that will decide playoff match-ups in western conference seem to be much more interesting or are they? It seems that from first round point of view game Portland - Utah doesn't mean much. If San Antonio beats New Orleans, Portland will play San Antonio regardless if they win or lose and Utah will play against OKC. Three way tie between Portland (5-2 record in games against SA and OKC), San Antonio(4-3) and OKC(2-6) will mean that Portland would get 4th seed, San Antonio 5th and OKC 6th. Respectively three way tie between Utah(4-4), OKC(5-3) and San Antonio (3-5) mean that OKC gets 4th seed, Utah 5th and SA 6th. So it seems that Utah has more incentive to win last game against Portland because they might lose their home court advantage in first round.

In New Orleans beats San Antonio, Portland will play against NO regardless if they win or lose and Utah will play against OKC. Three way tie between Portland (6-2 record in games against NO and OKC), New Orleans(4-3) and OKC(1-6) will mean that Portland would get 4th seed, New Orleans 5th and OKC 6th. Respectively three way tie between Utah(4-4), OKC(4-3) and New Orleans (3-4) mean that OKC gets 4th seed, Utah 5th and NO 6th. So once again Utah will get home court advantage only if they beat Portland.

Then let's finally look how last two seeds that Minnesota realistically can get will be determined. If San Antonio loses and Minnesota wins, SA will get 7th seed and Minnesota 8th. If New Orleans loses and Minnesota wins, Minnesota will get 7th seed and New Orleans 8th. If New Orleans loses and Denver wins, Denver gets 7th seed and NO 8th. If San Antonio loses and Denver wins, Denver will get 7th seed with really narrow margin since teams have 2-2 record against each other and have identical conference record 29-23. I had to check what will be the next deciding factor and it's record against playoff teams in own conference and that record is clearly better for Denver.

My bold predictions for last games are Utah wins Portland, Minnesota beats Denver, OKC beats Memphis and San Antonio beats New Orleans if Minnesota game is tight and hasn't ended before San Antonio - New Orleans game.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I started a similar thread a few days ago to chronicle the last few games of the season on a daily basis. It got kinda complicated.

Ultimately, I figured it comes down to this for our beloved/hated Wolves:

WIN.

[MikkeMan]

I did this mainly to find out whether there is any reason why Pop wouldn't rest his starters in last game as he usually does. I hope that possibility to meet Houston in first round gives enough motivation for trying to win NO.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I did this mainly to find out whether there is any reason why Pop wouldn't rest his starters in last game as he usually does. I hope that possibility to meet Houston in first round gives enough motivation for trying to win NO.

Good stuff, Mikkeman...I hadn't considered the Pop resting his guys option. I"m not sure if it matters though. I suspect he wouldnt mind being the 7th seed and facing a Curry-less Warriors team, so he may yank his starters as soon as he sees the Wolves coasting to a victory. The Pelicans will be hyper-motivated, since a Spurs win combined with a Wolves win condemns them to a series against Houston. I'm afraid a raucous home crowd turns this into a Pellies' blow out.