Interesting statistics thread

[Big O [enjin:13874644]]

I thought JimPete had an interesting observation about KAT in transition defense. He said he tends to jog down the floor and then sprint to catch up to the play rather than sprinting first and being ready to defend. This could be a function of being tired from too many minutes but I think it is more a function of not placing enough personal importance on D.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

A little more optimism here after two nice wins against division rivals. But unfortunately we have sunk to the bottom again in adjusted FG%, just a fraction behind Denver. The problem lies in overall shooting percentage (as opposed to 3-point %) where we are dead last giving up an astonishing 48.2%. Some of the recent off-the-charts shooting performances by opposing centers has a lot to do with this. Despite his brilliant offense, I think this still points toward KAT as the main culprit on defense...he not only gives up far too many easy baskets to the guy he is guarding, but he is also often slow to help out when teammates get beat, resulting in too many layups.

This is a promising basketball team that is going to make the playoffs this year, but they are not going to go very far if they can't improve on this stat. I don't know what the answer is, but somehow Thibs has to make the adjustments for us to improve here. Maybe it's more minutes for Cole....unlike KAT and G, he has a solid lower base and doesn't get pushed around in the paint as much. But of course subbing Cole in for KAT means a big dropoff in offense. I would still give it a try. What do others think about us being last in AFG%, and what would you recommend Thibs do to fix this?

Yup, dead last in eFG% again. Depressing frankly as I think it is THE most important metric on defense and we have been last or near the bottom of the league for years now. Butler and Taj have done all they can, but it's simply not good enough.

I think one problem is we don't apply enough ball pressure and really get up into the chests of opposing perimeter players. It's easier to get over the top of a ball screen when you are already up close to your guy.

The other problem is that KAT and Dieng get too easily moved out of the paint and can't seem to contest a shot in the paint and then be in a position to coral the rebound at the same time. They both have such weak-ass bases and leave their feet so much that it is very easy for bigger Centers to just follow the shot and get an easy putback.

[Monster]

I thought JimPete had an interesting observation about KAT in transition defense. He said he tends to jog down the floor and then sprint to catch up to the play rather than sprinting first and being ready to defend. This could be a function of being tired from too many minutes but I think it is more a function of not placing enough personal importance on D.

Towns doesn't and hasn't done this consistently the whole time in the league. I do t think being tired has much to do with it. It's on him to start doing it more. He doesn't run the floor on offense either. Now on that end I'm ok with him picking his spots because he doesn't need to run hard every play to use up energy and him taking some trailer 3's is a good thing.

[MikkeMan]

I just checked Wolves offensive and defensive ratings after their pretty pathetic October. It seems that after that they have had offensive rating 110.4 and defensive rating 106. Their net rating +4.4 has been better than Boston has had during same period of time. Defensive rating hasn't been even close to elite level yet but it has been about league average and ranks 16th among all teams, just 0.1 below Utah. So it looks like that after bad start Wolves have been playing little bit better defense and if they continue to do so, there shouldn't be any reason why they shouldn't win 50 games this year.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I just checked Wolves offensive and defensive ratings after their pretty pathetic October. It seems that after that they have had offensive rating 110.4 and defensive rating 106. Their net rating +4.4 has been better than Boston has had during same period of time. Defensive rating hasn't been even close to elite level yet but it has been about league average and ranks 16th among all teams, just 0.1 below Utah. So it looks like that after bad start Wolves have been playing little bit better defense and if they continue to do so, there shouldn't be any reason why they shouldn't win 50 games this year.

Yep. lots of positive stat news, and no reason they can't win 50+ if they keep making improvements. Overall defense, 4th quarter performance and Wig's shooting were perhaps the three areas that were causing this team to underperform, and there has been progress in all three.

Especially noteworthy is the almost bizarre improvement in 4th quarter performance (since this is when games are most often won and lost). Through November 30, the Wolves were dead last in 4th quarter net rating at -15.4. Since then they are second in the league at +13.7! That turnaround is nothing short of astonishing.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I just checked Wolves offensive and defensive ratings after their pretty pathetic October. It seems that after that they have had offensive rating 110.4 and defensive rating 106. Their net rating +4.4 has been better than Boston has had during same period of time. Defensive rating hasn't been even close to elite level yet but it has been about league average and ranks 16th among all teams, just 0.1 below Utah. So it looks like that after bad start Wolves have been playing little bit better defense and if they continue to do so, there shouldn't be any reason why they shouldn't win 50 games this year.

With this team, a league average defense is about all we *need* to win 50 games this year. The scoring, regardless of how anyone feels about it, has been nothing short of good and we get buckets when we really need them, which is a sign of a good offensive team with veteran leadership.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Latest Ortg/Drtg/Net Rating by player:

Butler - 111.5/105.5/+6.0
Jones - 111.2/105.9/+5.3
Gibson - 110.7/105.8/+4.9
KAT - 112.3/109.0/+4.3
Wiggins - 110.6/106.6/+4.0
Teague - 110.5/107.6/+2.9
Bjelly - 107.2/104.8/+2.3
Dieng - 106.5/111.3/-4.7
Crawford - 106.0/112.5/-6.6

- The cream has risen to the top, with Butler sporting the team's 2nd best Ortg and best Drtng.

- Tyus continues to show well in this stat category. We'll see how that holds up in a full-time starting role, but by almost any definition or stat you want to use, he is at minimum a very good backup PG.

- There is no one on the team that combines scoring volume and efficiency as well as KAT, which is why our offense is at its best when he is on the floor. Unfortunately, he has the worst Drtg of any of our starters. I believe it was in the Denver post game press conference where Thibs was shaking his head and muttered something to the effect of "....his understanding of verticality......I'll leave it at that", implying that KAT continues to struggle with a fundamental tenet of playing defense as an NBA big.

- I know Crawford has played a big hand in a couple of close wins for us (including the game winner against Denver the other night), but this metric suggests that he does more harm than good overall.

- Bjelly had been among the better performers on this metric, but he has been a non-factor in his three games back since injury. Hopefully he will return to form soon.

- I excluded guys out of the rotation (like Shabazz) or who just haven't played enough minutes yet (MGH).

[Monster]

Latest Ortg/Drtg/Net Rating by player:

Butler - 111.5/105.5/+6.0
Jones - 111.2/105.9/+5.3
Gibson - 110.7/105.8/+4.9
KAT - 112.3/109.0/+4.3
Wiggins - 110.6/106.6/+4.0
Teague - 110.5/107.6/+2.9
Bjelly - 107.2/104.8/+2.3
Dieng - 106.5/111.3/-4.7
Crawford - 106.0/112.5/-6.6

- The cream has risen to the top, with Butler sporting the team's 2nd best Ortg and best Drtng.

- Tyus continues to show well in this stat category. We'll see how that holds up in a full-time starting role, but by almost any definition or stat you want to use, he is at minimum a very good backup PG.

- There is no one on the team that combines scoring volume and efficiency as well as KAT, which is why our offense is at its best when he is on the floor. Unfortunately, he has the worst Drtg of any of our starters. I believe it was in the Denver post game press conference where Thibs was shaking his head and muttered something to the effect of "....his understanding of verticality......I'll leave it at that", implying that KAT continues to struggle with a fundamental tenet of playing defense as an NBA big.

- I know Crawford has played a big hand in a couple of close wins for us (including the game winner against Denver the other night), but this metric suggests that he does more harm than good overall.

- Bjelly had been among the better performers on this metric, but he has been a non-factor in his three games back since injury. Hopefully he will return to form soon.

- I excluded guys out of the rotation (like Shabazz) or who just haven't played enough minutes yet (MGH).

Part of why Crawford had been worthwhile in some of those games late is his defense has been far from horrible. That's not gonna continue either. I wish Teague was still healthy because I'd like to have seen Crawford sharing more with Tyus and Crawford being a floor spacer. His catch and shoot numbers seem like they would be pretty good. I'm afraid we may need Brooks to actually play some worthwhile minutes and actually contribute at least one game while Teague is out. I'm afraid Brooks is one of those guys that doesn't play well unless he actually gets some decent minutes. That is what makes some guys quite valuable that can just come in at any point after not playing and do some good things. Tyus is one of those guys and it probably has something to do with him being kinda good. :)

On Towns defense...I think he obviously struggles with consistency and technique. He has flashed some good signs and some consecutive possessions the last few games. Wiggins still hasn't arrived but I think his consistency has taken a pretty good jump both as a guy who keeps track of his man better and also makes better reads in the team concept plus making some actual hustle plays on that end. It's not the improvement from both guys we would want (although I think Wiggins has been solid) but there is a little bit there to be encouraged SOME and not be completely insane. Lol Those guys are part of the problem but the team getting on the same page can help them also. There have been some better signs overall there too along with the offense.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Latest Ortg/Drtg/Net Rating by player:


Jones - 111.3/102.6/+8.7
Butler - 111.8/104.1/+7.7
Gibson - 111.3/104.1/+7.2
Wiggins - 111.1/105.0/+6.1
KAT - 112.1/106.3/+5.9
Teague - 110.5/107.6/+2.9
Bjelly - 104.4/104.9/-.5
Dieng - 105.4/110.5/-5.0
Crawford - 104.4/112.0/-7.6

The starting unit is starting to gravitate closer together, which makes sense considering how many minutes they play together.

The biggest move here is KAT's defensive rating. Here it is by month:
October - 115.6
November - 106.4
December - 104.5
January (only 4 games) - 95.6

Holy crap, this is a really good sign. He's moved up on ESPN's Defensive RPM board too, albeit not quite as dramatically. He's in about the middle of the pack with a .85 D-RPM. While there is still a long ways to go, that is far better than where he has been in his prior two years.

Credit to KAT and the coaching staff that is working with him to correct some of his flaws. I'm not sure where his defensive ceiling is, but this is a very positive development for this franchise.

[thedoper]

Latest Ortg/Drtg/Net Rating by player:


Jones - 111.3/102.6/+8.7
Butler - 111.8/104.1/+7.7
Gibson - 111.3/104.1/+7.2
Wiggins - 111.1/105.0/+6.1
KAT - 112.1/106.3/+5.9
Teague - 110.5/107.6/+2.9
Bjelly - 104.4/104.9/-.5
Dieng - 105.4/110.5/-5.0
Crawford - 104.4/112.0/-7.6

The starting unit is starting to gravitate closer together, which makes sense considering how many minutes they play together.

The biggest move here is KAT's defensive rating. Here it is by month:
October - 115.6
November - 106.4
December - 104.5
January (only 4 games) - 95.6

Holy crap, this is a really good sign. He's moved up on ESPN's Defensive RPM board too, albeit not quite as dramatically. He's in about the middle of the pack with a .85 D-RPM. While there is still a long ways to go, that is far better than where he has been in his prior two years.

Credit to KAT and the coaching staff that is working with him to correct some of his flaws. I'm not sure where his defensive ceiling is, but this is a very positive development for this franchise.

Is it also a good sign how much Wiggins Drtg has improved too?