The End is Near...

[Wolvesfan21]

Tiebreaks are head to head then division record I believe.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Nice analysis, Abe. I agree that the Clips are probably outside looking in now, but I don't think they believe that (they have three winnable home games left, and are hoping to slide into the 8th spot with 45 wins)...so they will play hard against Denver tomorrow and probably win.

Now, here's where I think the Wolves stand right now. I have them winning their last three games and finishing tied with OkC for the 6th with 47 wins...I believe they win that tie-breaker, and therefore play a first round series against Portland. It gets a lot stickier if they beat LA and Memphis, but lose the finale against Denver. In that case, they might finish in a 3-way tie for 7th with the Spurs and Nuggets at 46 wins (and I get to celebrate a victory in the wins prediction thread :)), and I don't know how the tie-breakers would work in that situation...we could be either 7th, 8th or (gasp) 9th.

Obviously they have to win tonight in LA. I'm still annoyed at their style of play and Thibs' antiquated coaching, so I'm continuing my watching boycott. But I'm still looking forward to seeing a playoff game for the first time in 14 years, so I'll be eagerly checking the scores later tonight.

Boy, your optimistic for someone boycotting the games! I've also pretty much stopped watching these guys lately. If they win, I'll watch the replay or some of it. Otherwise, I'm not going to keep losing sleep to watch them stumble their way out of the playoffs!

They frustrate the hell out of me, Q, but I still think they have so much more talent than the three teams they are yet to play...and Butler is supposed to be back, which makes a big difference with these guys. They are 4 1/2 point favorites in LA tonight, probably double digit faves over Memphis, and probably 5-point faves in the finale against Denver. Maybe they will get upset in one of the three games (I'm most concerned about tonight actually), but Butler should help them prevail.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Tiebreaks are head to head then division record I believe.

I just looked it up, and you are correct that the first rule in a 3-way tie is collective head-to-head. If all games go as the bookies project but then the Wolves get upset by Denver in the finale, the Spurs would be 4-3, the Nuggets 4-4, and the Wolves 3-4, and we would finish 9th. Frankly, I don't have the stomach for a playoff series against the Rockets, so I would prefer a 9th place finish to an 8th. But my first choice (and my prediction if Butler can play in all three games) is that we run the table in our last three and finish 6th and play Portland...I think a healthy Butler could make that an interesting series.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Nice analysis, Abe. I agree that the Clips are probably outside looking in now, but I don't think they believe that (they have three winnable home games left, and are hoping to slide into the 8th spot with 45 wins)...so they will play hard against Denver tomorrow and probably win.

Now, here's where I think the Wolves stand right now. I have them winning their last three games and finishing tied with OkC for the 6th with 47 wins...I believe they win that tie-breaker, and therefore play a first round series against Portland. It gets a lot stickier if they beat LA and Memphis, but lose the finale against Denver. In that case, they might finish in a 3-way tie for 7th with the Spurs and Nuggets at 46 wins (and I get to celebrate a victory in the wins prediction thread :)), and I don't know how the tie-breakers would work in that situation...we could be either 7th, 8th or (gasp) 9th.

Obviously they have to win tonight in LA. I'm still annoyed at their style of play and Thibs' antiquated coaching, so I'm continuing my watching boycott. But I'm still looking forward to seeing a playoff game for the first time in 14 years, so I'll be eagerly checking the scores later tonight.

Boy, your optimistic for someone boycotting the games! I've also pretty much stopped watching these guys lately. If they win, I'll watch the replay or some of it. Otherwise, I'm not going to keep losing sleep to watch them stumble their way out of the playoffs!

They frustrate the hell out of me, Q, but I still think they have so much more talent than the three teams they are yet to play...and Butler is supposed to be back, which makes a big difference with these guys. They are 4 1/2 point favorites in LA tonight, probably double digit faves over Memphis, and probably 5-point faves in the finale against Denver. Maybe they will get upset in one of the three games (I'm most concerned about tonight actually), but Butler should help them prevail.

A 10-point swing vs. Denver?

I believe the Nuggets were favored by 5.5 last night?

I think people are sleeping on that team. Sure, its defense sucks. But they have A LOT of talent... even if Gary Harris who is arguably the best perimeter player on the team doesn't return in time.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Nice analysis, Abe. I agree that the Clips are probably outside looking in now, but I don't think they believe that (they have three winnable home games left, and are hoping to slide into the 8th spot with 45 wins)...so they will play hard against Denver tomorrow and probably win.

Now, here's where I think the Wolves stand right now. I have them winning their last three games and finishing tied with OkC for the 6th with 47 wins...I believe they win that tie-breaker, and therefore play a first round series against Portland. It gets a lot stickier if they beat LA and Memphis, but lose the finale against Denver. In that case, they might finish in a 3-way tie for 7th with the Spurs and Nuggets at 46 wins (and I get to celebrate a victory in the wins prediction thread :)), and I don't know how the tie-breakers would work in that situation...we could be either 7th, 8th or (gasp) 9th.

Obviously they have to win tonight in LA. I'm still annoyed at their style of play and Thibs' antiquated coaching, so I'm continuing my watching boycott. But I'm still looking forward to seeing a playoff game for the first time in 14 years, so I'll be eagerly checking the scores later tonight.

Boy, your optimistic for someone boycotting the games! I've also pretty much stopped watching these guys lately. If they win, I'll watch the replay or some of it. Otherwise, I'm not going to keep losing sleep to watch them stumble their way out of the playoffs!

They frustrate the hell out of me, Q, but I still think they have so much more talent than the three teams they are yet to play...and Butler is supposed to be back, which makes a big difference with these guys. They are 4 1/2 point favorites in LA tonight, probably double digit faves over Memphis, and probably 5-point faves in the finale against Denver. Maybe they will get upset in one of the three games (I'm most concerned about tonight actually), but Butler should help them prevail.

A 10-point swing vs. Denver?

I believe the Nuggets were favored by 5.5 last night?

I think people are sleeping on that team. Sure, it's defense sucks. But they have A LOT of talent... even if Gary Harris who is arguably the best perimeter player on the team doesn't return in time.

Yeah, I like Denver, but no team gets crazier point spread swings than they do because they are so much better at home than on the road (the altitude, you know). Take a look at this year. Their 30-10 home record is almost exactly like the Warriors, but their 14-25 road record mirrors the Lakers. If the game has any meaning, I think the books will have the Wolves about minus 5...especially if Denver missing their best defender in Gary Harris.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

And the Rubio-led Jazz will make it and we won't. Haha. Now of course we make it easily with a healthy Jimmy down the stretch but we all gotta laugh at this scenario too.

[Lipoli390]

Nice analysis, Abe. I agree that the Clips are probably outside looking in now, but I don't think they believe that (they have three winnable home games left, and are hoping to slide into the 8th spot with 45 wins)...so they will play hard against Denver tomorrow and probably win.

Now, here's where I think the Wolves stand right now. I have them winning their last three games and finishing tied with OkC for the 6th with 47 wins...I believe they win that tie-breaker, and therefore play a first round series against Portland. It gets a lot stickier if they beat LA and Memphis, but lose the finale against Denver. In that case, they might finish in a 3-way tie for 7th with the Spurs and Nuggets at 46 wins (and I get to celebrate a victory in the wins prediction thread :)), and I don't know how the tie-breakers would work in that situation...we could be either 7th, 8th or (gasp) 9th.

Obviously they have to win tonight in LA. I'm still annoyed at their style of play and Thibs' antiquated coaching, so I'm continuing my watching boycott. But I'm still looking forward to seeing a playoff game for the first time in 14 years, so I'll be eagerly checking the scores later tonight.

Boy, your optimistic for someone boycotting the games! I've also pretty much stopped watching these guys lately. If they win, I'll watch the replay or some of it. Otherwise, I'm not going to keep losing sleep to watch them stumble their way out of the playoffs!

I'm going to watch and I'll be at peace because I'll be indifferent. If we win, I would expect us to win our next two and finish no lower than 7th, possibly as high as 5th. That would be a nice outcome. If we lose, then there's a chance we could miss the playoffs, which is probably the impetus Glen needs to get rid of Thibs. Right now that's my first preference because I just can't stand Thibs. Of course, the most likely outcome will be my nightmare scenario -- an 8th place finish and 4-game sweep at the hands of the Rockets.

[AbeVigodaLive]

OKC - 46 - 34
SAS - 46 - 34
NOP - 46 - 34
MIN - 45 - 35
DEN - 45 - 35

TONIGHT'S ACTION:

Memphis @ Wolves. Memphis beat Minnesota 2x already when TRYING TO LOSE. They have no reason to lose this game... they're already guaranteed the 2nd best ping pong odds. But they're on the 2nd night of a back-to-back. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gasol sitting for much of this one. For the Wolves, Jimmy Butler is back. It was obvious immediately what he brings to the Wolves. If watching the guy willing to chase down breakaway layups with 1 minute left in a 20-point win (earlier this season) doesn't inspire guys like KAT and Wiggins... nothing ever will. I think the Wolves put this one away early.

Portland @ Denver. On paper... both teams have something to play for here. But Denver's playoff lives trumps dropping from #3 to #4 for Portland. I think Denver wins their final home game of the regular season... and 6th in a row in this one. But I'm not against a Portland win and a Wolves win to clinch it tonight.

OKC @ Miami. After OKC beat Golden State, they might already be in... if not... they close with Memphis at home. So... consider them in. The East was interesting too. Well, in the lengths teams #6, #7 and #8 were doing to avoid Cleveland in Round 1. For example... Miami lost by 24 to NY. And Wash lost to Atlanta at home. And Milwaukee lost to Brooklyn over the weekend. Now that CLE is #4... all four can breath again. Although... it can be argued #7 vs. BOS is the sweet spot. Miami needs to lose to get there. So...


[Note: For the growing group of "Miss the Playoffs so we can Fire Thibs" folks around here... that won't happen if the Wolves lose to the Nuggets Wednesday. But your best bet is for the Wolves to lose to this terrible Grizzlies team for the 3rd time. So start rooting now for the wolves to lose THIS game. It's your only hope to ditch Thibs.]

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

OKC - 46 - 34
SAS - 46 - 34
NOP - 46 - 34
MIN - 45 - 35
DEN - 45 - 35

TONIGHT'S ACTION:

Memphis @ Wolves. Memphis beat Minnesota 2x already when TRYING TO LOSE. They have no reason to lose this game... they're already guaranteed the 2nd best ping pong odds. But they're on the 2nd night of a back-to-back. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gasol sitting for much of this one. For the Wolves, Jimmy Butler is back. It was obvious immediately what he brings to the Wolves. If watching the guy willing to chase down breakaway layups with 1 minute left in a 20-point win (earlier this season) doesn't inspire guys like KAT and Wiggins... nothing ever will. I think the Wolves put this one away early.

Portland @ Denver. On paper... both teams have something to play for here. But Denver's playoff lives trumps dropping from #3 to #4 for Portland. I think Denver wins their final home game of the regular season... and 6th in a row in this one. But I'm not against a Portland win and a Wolves win to clinch it tonight.

OKC @ Miami. After OKC beat Golden State, they might already be in... if not... they close with Memphis at home. So... consider them in. The East was interesting too. Well, in the lengths teams #6, #7 and #8 were doing to avoid Cleveland in Round 1. For example... Miami lost by 24 to NY. And Wash lost to Atlanta at home. And Milwaukee lost to Brooklyn over the weekend. Now that CLE is #4... all four can breath again. Although... it can be argued #7 vs. BOS is the sweet spot. Miami needs to lose to get there. So...


[Note: For the growing group of "Miss the Playoffs so we can Fire Thibs" folks around here... that won't happen if the Wolves lose to the Nuggets Wednesday. But your best bet is for the Wolves to lose to this terrible Grizzlies team for the 3rd time. So start rooting now for the wolves to lose THIS game. It's your only hope to ditch Thibs.]

But is it? If both Denver and Minnesota win tonight, and then Denver beats us on Wednesday, Denver finishes with 47 wins to our 46 and gets the 8th spot. Correct? And conversely, the Wolves could make the playoffs even if they lost to Memphis tonight, because by beating Denver then on Wednesday both teams would have 46 wins...and I believe we win the tie breaker. So as I look at it, Wednesday is still the deciding game as to whether the Wolves make it or not.

[AbeVigodaLive]

OKC - 46 - 34
SAS - 46 - 34
NOP - 46 - 34
MIN - 45 - 35
DEN - 45 - 35

TONIGHT'S ACTION:

Memphis @ Wolves. Memphis beat Minnesota 2x already when TRYING TO LOSE. They have no reason to lose this game... they're already guaranteed the 2nd best ping pong odds. But they're on the 2nd night of a back-to-back. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gasol sitting for much of this one. For the Wolves, Jimmy Butler is back. It was obvious immediately what he brings to the Wolves. If watching the guy willing to chase down breakaway layups with 1 minute left in a 20-point win (earlier this season) doesn't inspire guys like KAT and Wiggins... nothing ever will. I think the Wolves put this one away early.

Portland @ Denver. On paper... both teams have something to play for here. But Denver's playoff lives trumps dropping from #3 to #4 for Portland. I think Denver wins their final home game of the regular season... and 6th in a row in this one. But I'm not against a Portland win and a Wolves win to clinch it tonight.

OKC @ Miami. After OKC beat Golden State, they might already be in... if not... they close with Memphis at home. So... consider them in. The East was interesting too. Well, in the lengths teams #6, #7 and #8 were doing to avoid Cleveland in Round 1. For example... Miami lost by 24 to NY. And Wash lost to Atlanta at home. And Milwaukee lost to Brooklyn over the weekend. Now that CLE is #4... all four can breath again. Although... it can be argued #7 vs. BOS is the sweet spot. Miami needs to lose to get there. So...


[Note: For the growing group of "Miss the Playoffs so we can Fire Thibs" folks around here... that won't happen if the Wolves lose to the Nuggets Wednesday. But your best bet is for the Wolves to lose to this terrible Grizzlies team for the 3rd time. So start rooting now for the wolves to lose THIS game. It's your only hope to ditch Thibs.]

But is it? If both Denver and Minnesota win tonight, and then Denver beats us on Wednesday, Denver finishes with 47 wins to our 46 and gets the 8th spot. Correct? And conversely, the Wolves could make the playoffs even if they lost to Memphis tonight, because by beating Denver then on Wednesday both teams would have 46 wins...and I believe we win the tie breaker. So as I look at it, Wednesday is still the deciding game as to whether the Wolves make it or not.

My point was that losing to Denver to miss the playoffs won't be enough. I should have added a "too" or "and the Nuggets" to make it more clear.