After 14 years, ladies and gentlemen...the playoffs

[thedoper]

Defensive strategy is what gives us a chance of winning this series. I like some of the suggestions Q is making. It will be interesting to see if Thibs tries to isolate one player on Houston in an extreme way. One thing is for certain, Capela cannot kill us on the boards as usual. Towns is going to have to dial in to give him a bit of resistance.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Defensive strategy is what gives us a chance of winning this series. I like some of the suggestions Q is making. It will be interesting to see if Thibs tries to isolate one player on Houston in an extreme way. One thing is for certain, Capela cannot kill us on the boards as usual. Towns is going to have to dial in to give him a bit of resistance.

KAT should absolutely not guard Capela. They will pick and roll him to death. Put Gibson on Capela and KAT on either the 4 or the 3. We should do whatever we can to hide (er protect?) KAT defensively and put our best PnR and switching players on Anderson, Capela, Harden, and Paul.

Also Thibs....please watch the San Antonio series over and over again from last year. They gave Houston TONS of space between the 3-point line and underneath the rim, literally begging them to take wide open 3-point jumpers. No hard hedges underneath the 3-point line! Back the eff off and wall up in the paint!

Edit: Sorry, meant to say wide open 2-point jumpers!

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Interesting post, but the biggest difference in this series is not coaching, as you say. I have some serious disagreements with things Thibodeau -- both the PBO and HC -- has done during his time with the Wolves, but overall I still think he's a good coach despite how often he gets ripped here.

The biggest difference between these two teams besides three-point shooting is depth, in my opinion. I don't know how the numbers look, but the Rockets have Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker, Gerald Green, Nene Hilario, Luc Mbah a Moute, and Joe Johnson capable of coming off the bench for them. Those are quality players to rely on. The Wolves don't have anything like that. We have Tyus Jones and sometimes Nemanja Bjelica. Sorry, I can't put Jamal Crawford or Derrick Rose anywhere near the reliable range, especially when one of them sometimes plays SF minutes. To me, that's our biggest disadvantage.

If it were a series where starters played against starters for 48 minutes, we'd potentially have the advantage. Believe it or not, the 2nd-best total plus/minus (+/-) for a starting five in the NBA this year was Minnesota's finest -- Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler, Andrew Wiggins, Taj Gibson, and Karl-Anthony Towns. They were a +169 in 1,131 minutes. The only team above them was Philadelphia.

To conclude, our starters can hang with anybody. As much as we nitpick about this or that, Wiggins or Thibs, or even Teague, none of them have been our biggest problem this year. We have the worst bench in basketball and that has been a killer. It will almost certainly be the primary reason we don't make much, if any, noise in the post-season this year -- and potentially next year either if it goes unresolved.

I agree that our starters can hang with anyone, at least when they aren't exhausted (Malone gave us a gift last night by playing his bench almost as little as Thibs did last night, and our starters looked as fresh as theirs in OT). But I think the quality of our bench is debatable...are they bad because they are just bad players, or are they bad because of the way Thibs uses (or doesn't use) them? I think everyone here knows I am in the latter camp. Here's the bench Thibs (and Flip) have assembled:

Belly: A former Euro MVP player just 3 years ago

Gorgui: A 1st round pick who Thibs valued enough as a starter to give a $15 million per contract to.

Tyus: A young PG who has won at every level, has shown he can direct an offense, and surprisingly ranks in the top quartile defensively among PGs.

Crawford: He is what we thought he was...erratic. But he has been a consistent 20MPG guy on every team he has played for (including this one)

Aldrich: A solid defensive and rebounding enforcer-type center who had an excellent season for Doc Rivers the season before Thibs traded for him, but for some reason totally forgot how to play basketball when he cam home to Minnesota (yes, that is sarcasm)

Rose: Not close to his MVP years, but still able to bring a lot of energy off the bench

MGH: Who knows? Some of us have seen flashes of athleticism and defensive acumen, but he is glued to Thibs' bench like Aldrich while we continue to flounder in the bottom of the league defensively.

Other coaches have gotten a lot out of most of these guys. Are they really that terrible, or have they been mishandled?

[crazy-canuck [enjin:18955461]]

Defensive strategy is what gives us a chance of winning this series. I like some of the suggestions Q is making. It will be interesting to see if Thibs tries to isolate one player on Houston in an extreme way. One thing is for certain, Capela cannot kill us on the boards as usual. Towns is going to have to dial in to give him a bit of resistance.

KAT should absolutely not guard Capela. They will pick and roll him to death. Put Gibson on Capela and KAT on either the 4 or the 3. We should do whatever we can to hide (er protect?) KAT defensively and put our best PnR and switching players on Anderson, Capela, Harden, and Paul.

Also Thibs....please watch the San Antonio series over and over again from last year. They gave Houston TONS of space between the 3-point line and underneath the rim, literally begging them to take wide open 3-point jumpers. No hard hedges underneath the 3-point line! Back the eff off and wall up in the paint!

Yup, kat on capela is asking for trouble.

With capela you need to have a body on him and box him out. Taj will sacrafice rebound numbers to keep capela off the glass. Let kat continue to chase rebounds.

Kat is horrible in that pnr. The nuggets were ging after kat and teague quite often. Now imagine cp3 or harden and capela coming down. Everyone will be looking to help and that's when the 3 pt floodgates open.

I agree wholeheartedly on your defensive assignments.

[Monster]

Interesting post, but the biggest difference in this series is not coaching, as you say. I have some serious disagreements with things Thibodeau -- both the PBO and HC -- has done during his time with the Wolves, but overall I still think he's a good coach despite how often he gets ripped here.

The biggest difference between these two teams besides three-point shooting is depth, in my opinion. I don't know how the numbers look, but the Rockets have Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker, Gerald Green, Nene Hilario, Luc Mbah a Moute, and Joe Johnson capable of coming off the bench for them. Those are quality players to rely on. The Wolves don't have anything like that. We have Tyus Jones and sometimes Nemanja Bjelica. Sorry, I can't put Jamal Crawford or Derrick Rose anywhere near the reliable range, especially when one of them sometimes plays SF minutes. To me, that's our biggest disadvantage.

If it were a series where starters played against starters for 48 minutes, we'd potentially have the advantage. Believe it or not, the 2nd-best total plus/minus (+/-) for a starting five in the NBA this year was Minnesota's finest -- Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler, Andrew Wiggins, Taj Gibson, and Karl-Anthony Towns. They were a +169 in 1,131 minutes. The only team above them was Philadelphia.

To conclude, our starters can hang with anybody. As much as we nitpick about this or that, Wiggins or Thibs, or even Teague, none of them have been our biggest problem this year. We have the worst bench in basketball and that has been a killer. It will almost certainly be the primary reason we don't make much, if any, noise in the post-season this year -- and potentially next year either if it goes unresolved.

I agree that our starters can hang with anyone, at least when they aren't exhausted (Malone gave us a gift last night by playing his bench almost as little as Thibs did last night, and our starters looked as fresh as theirs in OT). But I think the quality of our bench is debatable...are they bad because they are just bad players, or are they bad because of the way Thibs uses (or doesn't use) them? I think everyone here knows I am in the latter camp. Here's the bench Thibs (and Flip) have assembled:

Belly: A former Euro MVP player just 3 years ago

Gorgui: A 1st round pick who Thibs valued enough as a starter to give a $15 million per contract to.

Tyus: A young PG who has won at every level, has shown he can direct an offense, and surprisingly ranks in the top quartile defensively among PGs.

Crawford: He is what we thought he was...erratic. But he has been a consistent 20MPG guy on every team he has played for (including this one)

Aldrich: A solid defensive and rebounding enforcer-type center who had an excellent season for Doc Rivers the season before Thibs traded for him, but for some reason totally forgot how to play basketball when he cam home to Minnesota (yes, that is sarcasm)

Rose: Not close to his MVP years, but still able to bring a lot of energy off the bench

MGH: Who knows? Some of us have seen flashes of athleticism and defensive acumen, but he is glued to Thibs' bench like Aldrich while we continue to flounder in the bottom of the league defensively.

Other coaches have gotten a lot out of most of these guys. Are they really that terrible, or have they been mishandled?

LST you really missed an opportunity to give David Kahn a shoutout for that Belly pick! Lol

[thedoper]

Defensive strategy is what gives us a chance of winning this series. I like some of the suggestions Q is making. It will be interesting to see if Thibs tries to isolate one player on Houston in an extreme way. One thing is for certain, Capela cannot kill us on the boards as usual. Towns is going to have to dial in to give him a bit of resistance.

KAT should absolutely not guard Capela. They will pick and roll him to death. Put Gibson on Capela and KAT on either the 4 or the 3. We should do whatever we can to hide (er protect?) KAT defensively and put our best PnR and switching players on Anderson, Capela, Harden, and Paul.

Also Thibs....please watch the San Antonio series over and over again from last year. They gave Houston TONS of space between the 3-point line and underneath the rim, literally begging them to take wide open 3-point jumpers. No hard hedges underneath the 3-point line! Back the eff off and wall up in the paint!

Edit: Sorry, meant to say wide open 2-point jumpers!

I don't think Towns will be exclusively guarding Capela one on one. But he's going to need to be a huge part of keeping him off the glass. If Kat's guarding the 4 he's the cover when Capela rolls to the hoop. If they hide KAT on the 3 we're already fucked.

That spotlight is going to be shining bright on KAT and Wiggins. I'm pumped to see how they respond to getting smacked in the face in game one.

[Monster]

Defensive strategy is what gives us a chance of winning this series. I like some of the suggestions Q is making. It will be interesting to see if Thibs tries to isolate one player on Houston in an extreme way. One thing is for certain, Capela cannot kill us on the boards as usual. Towns is going to have to dial in to give him a bit of resistance.

KAT should absolutely not guard Capela. They will pick and roll him to death. Put Gibson on Capela and KAT on either the 4 or the 3. We should do whatever we can to hide (er protect?) KAT defensively and put our best PnR and switching players on Anderson, Capela, Harden, and Paul.

Also Thibs....please watch the San Antonio series over and over again from last year. They gave Houston TONS of space between the 3-point line and underneath the rim, literally begging them to take wide open 3-point jumpers. No hard hedges underneath the 3-point line! Back the eff off and wall up in the paint!

Edit: Sorry, meant to say wide open 2-point jumpers!

I don't think Towns will be exclusively guarding Capela one on one. But he's going to need to be a huge part of keeping him off the glass. If Kat's guarding the 4 he's the cover when Capela rolls to the hoop. If they hide KAT on the 3 we're already fucked.

That spotlight is going to be shining bright on KAT and Wiggins. I'm pumped to see how they respond to getting smacked in the face in game one.

Honestly let Capela have some easy dunks as long as you are actually taking away the 3. If you give up both that's when it's really over. We have seen that play out already.

[Logo [enjin:17474297]]

A casual fan commented to me "Some fans are just never happy" when I explained how it might have been better to have lost then to be # 8 and face Houston. Then I thought about how last year this outcome would have been perfect. However, this year expectations were higher and should have built on a first round playoff experience.

I would love to see a pound it inside game Vs. Houston. I really am dreading watching Harden get all the mystery foul calls. I would love to see him knocked to floor a few times as the players from the 80's and 90's would do.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

While I agree we will probably go inside a bunch against Houston, I honestly think they could care less. They will gladly play a game where we're shooting a bunch of 2's against their blitzkrieg of 3's any day. The math significantly favors them with the opportunity to get 50% more points per shot attempted.

Realistically, only Golden State can hang with these guys. We simply don't have the firepower, but hey, may be we steal a game.

[Hicks123 [enjin:6700838]]

While I agree we will probably go inside a bunch against Houston, I honestly think they could care less. They will gladly play a game where we're shooting a bunch of 2's against their blitzkrieg of 3's any day. The math significantly favors them with the opportunity to get 50% more points per shot attempted.

Realistically, only Golden State can hang with these guys. We simply don't have the firepower, but hey, may be we steal a game.

Is too much being made of this 3 point advantage? Just in looking at stats and numbers, Houston takes 20 more 3's per game (1st v 30th).....and only outscores the Wolves by a measly 3 ppg? I mean, maybe this plays out like many on here are saying and we lose by 30 every game.....but do the stats really show that?