Interesting Insider Article on Towns

[Coolbreeze44]

Note that Towns had the best score of the week and Wig was 8th. Not bad.


NBA player rankings: How much has Karl-Anthony Towns improved?

By Micah Adams
ESPN.com






After being selected as the overwhelming favorite by NBA general managers as the player they'd most want to build a franchise around before the season, Karl-Anthony Towns hasn't quite had the same luster given the Minnesota Timberwolves' disappointing record (21-34), incredible performances by other young players (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, etc.) and a perception that he hasn't improved as much as expected in his second season.

Has Towns really underperformed lofty expectations? Or is his improvement being overlooked?



For the first time this season, Towns finished No. 1 in our game score leaderboard, winning our unofficial player of the week award. He did it while averaging more than 30 points per game on 62 percent shooting and getting to the line almost 10 times per game -- where he made 35 of 38.





Who won the week?


Player

Avg. Game Score


1. Karl-Anthony Towns 26.2
2. Kawhi Leonard 25.4
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo 25.2
4. Anthony Davis 25.2
5. Russell Westbrook 24.6
6. Blake Griffin 24.4
7. LeBron James 23.4
8. Andrew Wiggins 23.1
9. James Harden 23.0
10. Nikola Jokic 22.7


Just because Towns hasn't vaulted into MVP contention or even reserved an All-Star spot, that doesn't mean he hasn't gotten better. Let's look at both sides of the ball to check on just how he has progressed.




Shooting and playmaking

We'll start with the area in which Towns has truly blossomed. Aside from the scoring column -- where he has predictably elevated his output thanks to more minutes and a larger usage rate -- Towns has a far more varied game than a season ago. One year after ranking as the NBA's 14th-best big man in offensive real plus-minus (RPM), Towns now ranks fourth behind only DeMarcus Cousins, Jokic and Kevin Love.

The first and most obvious area where he has improved is an expanded 3-point shot.

Don't get it twisted, Towns already was a threat from downtown after hoisting more than one per game in his rookie season while shooting a respectable 34 percent. Still making an almost identical percentage, he's now taking 2.5 times as many, with 19 percent of his attempts coming from beyond the arc, up from 8 percent a year ago. Unlike some bigs who have ventured outside, it hasn't come at the expense of quality looks inside. In fact, it's been quite the opposite.

Not only is Towns taking more shots closer to the basket, he has more than cut in half his propensity for taking long 2s, the most inefficient shots in the game.





Towns' shot location


Distance

2015-16 (%)*

2016-17 (%)*


Inside 3 feet 34 38
3-10 feet 21 25
Long 2s 37 18
3s 8 19

Percentage of attempts


In theory, more shots close to the basket lead to more trips to the free throw line, which is exactly what has happened as Towns already has drawn more fouls in 55 games than he did in 82 games last season. He's averaging more than five free throw attempts per game and is shooting better than 82 percent -- a combination that no 7-footer has done this early in a career. Of the 34 instances of a 7-footer averaging at least five free throw attempts per game, none shot a higher percentage from the charity stripe than Towns this season. Though Dirk Nowitzki would go on to do it many times, not even he reached Towns' level until his third season.

Beyond shot distribution and drawing fouls, Towns also has continued to grow as a playmaker as Tom Thibodeau has expanded his role in the offense. Towns' touches per game have increased from 55 to 73. Even when adjusting for an increase in minutes, Towns is averaging over 10 more touches per 36 minutes than his rookie season. No 7-footer has had the ball in his hands as often as the Timberwolves center.

With this larger role, Towns has not disappointed. Not only has he shaved his turnover percentage down from 13 percent to 12 percent, he has increased his assist rate from 11 percent to 14 percent. That might seem insignificant, but for a team that's starved for playmaking outside of Ricky Rubio, it's a boon. Towns actually has a higher assist rate than either Andrew Wiggins or Zach LaVine (before he was injured) and easily ranks second on the team in total passes per game behind Rubio.

Add it up and it's not hard to see why Towns is already on the short list of the best offensive bigs in the NBA.




Still room to grow on defense


There is without question more work to be done on the defensive end, where Towns receives the most criticism. Given his physical tools and that he's now playing for Thibodeau -- a defensive wizard -- it wasn't unreasonable to expect a semi-leap on this end in Year 2.



BBVA Compass #NBArank Rising Stars

We're ranking the best players under age 25.

o Rising Stars: Nos. 41-50 | 31-40 | 26-30
o 21-25 | 16-20 | 11-15 | 6-10 | 1-5

Best of #NBArank
o Top 200 for 2016-17 | All-time kicks
o All-Time #NBArank: History's top 100


On the surface, Towns has regressed defensively as his block rate (4.3 percent to 3.5) and steal rate (1.1 percent to 0.9) have dropped while his defensive rebounding percentage has remained relatively stagnant (27.5 percent to 27.1). Of the 165 qualified bigs, Towns ranks 164th in DRPM (minus-1.66), ahead of only the undersized Jabari Parker, and is more than a full point worse than his rookie campaign (minus-0.22). The team-level stats aren't pretty either, as the Timberwolves have allowed nearly 10 points more per 100 possessions with Towns on the floor than with him out of the game.

Yet even here, there are promising signs. Though not yet a consistent shot-blocker, Towns has shown legitimate rim protection skills even if it hasn't always translated into the box score.

According to player tracking data on NBA.com, opponents are shooting 49 percent within five feet of the basket and with Towns within five feet. That's the same as players are shooting against DeAndre Jordan under the same circumstances and worse than they are shooting against Marc Gasol, Anthony Davis and Nerlens Noel. It's not a fluke either, as it's the second straight year that opponents have shot worse than 50 percent against Towns.

Jordan also provides a similar profile as Towns in terms of both base-level defensive stats and RPM. Like Towns, Jordan entered the NBA as a 19-year old following a one-and-done year in college. Like Towns, both Jordan's block rate and steal rate dropped from his rookie to sophomore seasons. His first two seasons in the NBA, Jordan finished with a DRPM of minus-1.81 and minus-1.59, rather similar to those of Towns. That mark jumped to 1.34 in his third season and increased every season leading into this one, a path that has included two straight First Team All-Defense nods.

Even if Towns never turns into the defensive anchor that Jordan has become, there is at the very least a road map to respectability, which given his exploits on the offensive end would be enough to carry Towns into the NBA's elite.

So maybe we've collectively slept on Towns, who has quietly continued to develop into an elite player, despite not getting the call to New Orleans for All-Star Weekend. He is averaging more than 23 points and 11 rebounds per game, something that only Shaquille O'Neal ever did as a 21-year-old.

Towns comes in at 13th in our overall rankings, which is the highest of any player who did not make the All-Star team.





Cumulative rankings*


Player

Avg. Game Score


1. James Harden 24.2
2. Russell Westbrook 24.1
3. Kevin Durant 22.8
4. Anthony Davis 22.6
5. LeBron James 22.1
6. Isaiah Thomas 22.1
7. Giannis Antetokounmpo 20.9
8. Kawhi Leonard 20.8
9. DeMarcus Cousins 20.8
10. Jimmy Butler 20.5

*Through 16 weeks

[Monster]

Thanks for posting. My one critism is that they talked about him taking out those long 2's because they are t efficient but he was very good at them last year. Its interesting to look at him based on these numbers.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Yeah, the defensive issues put a bit of a wet blanket on the hype, but there is no question he's taken his offensive game to the next level. His right handed jump hook is unstoppable. I almost never see him miss that shot when he gets the ball in the right spot. It's just so rare to find a big man that can post up so effectively, yet also shoot the ball so well. He's only going to get better too.

[Coolbreeze44]

Yeah, the defensive issues put a bit of a wet blanket on the hype, but there is no question he's taken his offensive game to the next level. His right handed jump hook is unstoppable. I almost never see him miss that shot when he gets the ball in the right spot. It's just so rare to find a big man that can post up so effectively, yet also shoot the ball so well. He's only going to get better too.

The thing I like about his jump hook is how soft it is. Even when he catches a lot of rim it seems to find it's way through. You're right, he hardly ever misses that shot. He's the opposite of the way Pek was around the rim.

[Monster]

Yeah, the defensive issues put a bit of a wet blanket on the hype, but there is no question he's taken his offensive game to the next level. His right handed jump hook is unstoppable. I almost never see him miss that shot when he gets the ball in the right spot. It's just so rare to find a big man that can post up so effectively, yet also shoot the ball so well. He's only going to get better too.

The thing I like about his jump hook is how soft it is. Even when he catches a lot of rim it seems to find it's way through. You're right, he hardly ever misses that shot. He's the opposite of the way Pek was around the rim.

Towns has missed his share of bunnies this year.

How many guys in the league are a better low post scorer in the league right now than Towns? The list can't be that long. He looks even more unstoppable down there than last year and he was pretty good then. I'm not sure any one player the last 20 games has really put up enough resistance that you could say they were up to the task of guarding him down there.