The Zach Dilemma

[TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]]

https://www.minnpost.com/sports/2017/02/tenuous-timberwolves-future-zach-lavine

Robson article about the LaVine dilemma that we face next year. I'm real curious as to what others think we should offer LaVine. The worst thing about the injury is the fact Zach is unable to show any further improvement before we need to decide on an extension. I love his offense but hate his defense and I think extending him for more than Gorgui Dieng type money (16-18M) at this point is very risky (unless its a one or two year deal). We could let him play out next season and then get a better idea as to his market value, but then we risk losing him for nothing. Not an easy decision for this organization. Right now, I think trading Zach and one of our point guards for Butler seems more appealing than it did over the offseason.

[TAFKASP]

Lavine and his agent aren't going to be interested in a short term deal for obvious reasons. He'd be better off taking less money annually on a longer, larger deal than he would risking the possibility he never fully recovers and the two year deal ends up being his last.

No way the Bulls give us Butler for Lavine and all of our point guards, much less one of them. They aren't going to trade a sure thing in Butler for such huge question marks, that deal is toast.

I just posted my thoughts on Lavine in the Parker thread, I'll repost them here:

The Lavine injury certainly sucks, but I'm all for letting him test the market at this point given the circumstances. If Lavine demands a max or near max deal and another team is willing to offer it coming off an injury then let him walk. Max money can bring great players, if they're not comfortable risking it on Lavine then risk it on someone else. The Woofs may not be a glory team at the moment in terms of bringing in max players they will absolutely be more attractive as the big two of KAT and Wiggins get better and Thibs hopefully adds better supporting players... combined with the rest of the NBA spending their portion of the big cap bump options will also decrease.

Losing Lavine to a max offer will not hurt as much as signing him to a max or near max and his never living up to it, even if in the end he does so elsewhere. Be smart, not desperate.

Edit: After posting that it occurs to me that desperate pretty much describes 90% of the Woofs signings over the past decade, lets not do that anymore... please.

And that, as they say, is all I have to say about that... for now.

I lied, here's more from my admittedly naive basketball mind. As much as I love Lavine and his potential I've come to agree with those who feel Wiggins is best suited to play the 2. If Thibs believes Wiggins is more of a sure thing that Lavine, and given the injury it's hard to believe otherwise, then to be blunt, it was fun Zach and I wish you nothing but success in the future. I'd rather invest max money in a legit 3 who is also a solid defender and shoots the three well than continue to play a slightly undersized Lavine at the 2 and a scrawny Wiggins at the 3 where many opponents can push him around. If they can acquire a legit max money worthy 3 and move Wiggins to the 2 I'll be happy to wish Lavine well in his future endevors!

[TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]]

Before giving Zach a near max deal: I'd prefer to go for one of the top tier free agents. Of course Curry and Durant would be nice, but we might have a shot with guys like Millsap, Ibaka or Rudy Gay and I think any of them would be money better spent.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I'd use the opportunity to try to get a Steph like extension. Below market value because of an injury that ends up being a great deal if he stays healthy. Zach might be enough of a team player to do it to. I have no problem giving him 15-18 per year over 4 years. A short term deal makes no sense because he's not gonna play well during that deal until his contract year because it takes about an extra season before guys get close to their old selves and then you have to pay him sooner than if you gave him a 4 year deal. The extension year 1 is a wash. That leaves 3 years to get back to this level. I also think the break might help him bulk up which he still needs to do to reach his potential. Put on some upper body strength so you don't need as much quickness to be effective. He's a good shooter so I don't think a knee injury literally cripples his career like a D Rose. I think he'll come back from it and be solid in 2019/20.

[TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]]

SP, I agree that the chances of trading Zach and Dunn/Rubio for Butler are nil. I was just musing on how most of us didn't want to do that deal last offseason. If we have a high enough draft pick to sweeten the deal, the Bulls might bite. Then again maybe it would be better to draft the best player available and have a new big 3 of KAT, Wiggs and Draft pick with a supporting cast of Gorgui, Ricky/Dunn and a free agent (even Noel would fit in nicely).

[TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]]

I'd use the opportunity to try to get a Steph like extension. Below market value because of an injury that ends up being a great deal if he stays healthy. Zach might be enough of a team player to do it to. I have no problem giving him 15-18 per year over 4 years. A short term deal makes no sense because he's not gonna play well during that deal until his contract year because it takes about an extra season before guys get close to their old selves and then you have to pay him sooner than if you gave him a 4 year deal. The extension year 1 is a wash. That leaves 3 years to get back to this level. I also think the break might help him bulk up which he still needs to do to reach his potential. Put on some upper body strength so you don't need as much quickness to be effective. He's a good shooter so I don't think a knee injury literally cripples his career like a D Rose. I think he'll come back from it and be solid in 2019/20.

I'd be OK with giving Zach 15-18 and hopefully in the lower end of that range to get healthy again and develop.

[TAFKASP]

I'd use the opportunity to try to get a Steph like extension. Below market value because of an injury that ends up being a great deal if he stays healthy. Zach might be enough of a team player to do it to. I have no problem giving him 15-18 per year over 4 years. A short term deal makes no sense because he's not gonna play well during that deal until his contract year because it takes about an extra season before guys get close to their old selves and then you have to pay him sooner than if you gave him a 4 year deal. The extension year 1 is a wash. That leaves 3 years to get back to this level. I also think the break might help him bulk up which he still needs to do to reach his potential. Put on some upper body strength so you don't need as much quickness to be effective. He's a good shooter so I don't think a knee injury literally cripples his career like a D Rose. I think he'll come back from it and be solid in 2019/20.

The Wolves don't have 2-3 years to gamble on Lavine's recovery even at a "relative" bargain rate of $15-18M IMO. If they're going to dish out that kind of money and years it has to be on a known/proven commodity.

[TAFKASP]

If letting Lavine walk means the ability to sign a legit 3 with the size to bang with the larger guys that Wiggins cannot deal with all while letting Wiggins play the 2 where his length will allow him to dominate more then I believe that is the best case scenario.

As many here have said Lavine is likely best suited to a 6th man role, even if that not the one he wants. Wiggins is also likely best suited to play the 2, which Lavine's presence prevents. It was going to be a tough sell for Thibs to not try to make things work with the two of them, but now I think he has the leeway to pursue the better option without taking a massive beating in the press.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I'd use the opportunity to try to get a Steph like extension. Below market value because of an injury that ends up being a great deal if he stays healthy. Zach might be enough of a team player to do it to. I have no problem giving him 15-18 per year over 4 years. A short term deal makes no sense because he's not gonna play well during that deal until his contract year because it takes about an extra season before guys get close to their old selves and then you have to pay him sooner than if you gave him a 4 year deal. The extension year 1 is a wash. That leaves 3 years to get back to this level. I also think the break might help him bulk up which he still needs to do to reach his potential. Put on some upper body strength so you don't need as much quickness to be effective. He's a good shooter so I don't think a knee injury literally cripples his career like a D Rose. I think he'll come back from it and be solid in 2019/20.

The Wolves don't have 2-3 years to gamble on Lavine's recovery even at a "relative" bargain rate of $15-18M IMO. If they're going to dish out that kind of money and years it has to be on a known/proven commodity.

We have 100 million to spend. We can afford to pay 15% for a high risk/high reward move. If you don't think they should then they should just cut Zach right now because what's the point. He's gonna get at least that in free agency from someone willing to take that risk that needs a homerun move. We really can't afford to let him become a star for someone else because we won't pay him Pek's money + his current salary to take a chance on him. Zach's 21. His career isn't over because of this and you probably have to deal with 1 down year to get him back to where he is. The player he would be those next 3 years is worth the 15 million.

[WildWolf2813]

I'd use the opportunity to try to get a Steph like extension. Below market value because of an injury that ends up being a great deal if he stays healthy. Zach might be enough of a team player to do it to. I have no problem giving him 15-18 per year over 4 years. A short term deal makes no sense because he's not gonna play well during that deal until his contract year because it takes about an extra season before guys get close to their old selves and then you have to pay him sooner than if you gave him a 4 year deal. The extension year 1 is a wash. That leaves 3 years to get back to this level. I also think the break might help him bulk up which he still needs to do to reach his potential. Put on some upper body strength so you don't need as much quickness to be effective. He's a good shooter so I don't think a knee injury literally cripples his career like a D Rose. I think he'll come back from it and be solid in 2019/20.

The Wolves don't have 2-3 years to gamble on Lavine's recovery even at a "relative" bargain rate of $15-18M IMO. If they're going to dish out that kind of money and years it has to be on a known/proven commodity.

We have 100 million to spend. We can afford to pay 15% for a high risk/high reward move. If you don't think they should then they should just cut Zach right now because what's the point. He's gonna get at least that in free agency from someone willing to take that risk that needs a homerun move. We really can't afford to let him become a star for someone else because we won't pay him Pek's money + his current salary to take a chance on him. Zach's 21. His career isn't over because of this and you probably have to deal with 1 down year to get him back to where he is. The player he would be those next 3 years is worth the 15 million.

It's not that his career is over, but look at it rationally:

If you think Wiggins is best suited at SG, LaVine can't be here. He's not gonna be a 6th man behind Wiggins simply because the minutes won't be there unless they play together, and if they play together, the only way to do that is if Wiggins plays SF, but if you're gonna do that, you might as well abandon the idea of Wiggins at SG since LaVine at PG failed (which is one of the reasons why I hated the LaVine selection in the first place). Why pay someone so much money to have a limited role? Where is the home run gonna come from? At this rate if neither guy can avoid replicating the other, one has to go, as painful as that may be, and now that's compromised with LaVine's injury. If you prefer to keep Zach, Wiggins has to go since he doesn't put in the work to be a great SF.