Lottery Odds: Forecasting 29.2% Chance of Sunny Skies on May 17th for Wolves Fans

[TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]]

http://www.canishoopus.com/2016/4/12/11413132/wolves-solidify-lottery-position-playoff-situation-clarifiesSource Canis Loopus

Having the fifth worst record assigns them the following odds for getting each draft position, to be determined by the lottery which takes place on May 17th:

1st: 8.8%
2nd: 9.7%
3rd: 10.7%
4th: 0%
5th: 26.1%
6th: 36.0%
7th: 8.4%
8th: 0.4%

[TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]]

Cumulative Odds

Top Pick: 8.8%
Top Two Pick: 18.5%
Top Three Pick: 29.2%
We can't draft Fourth
Top Five Pick: 55.3%
Top Six Pick: 91.3%
Top Seven Pick: 99.7%
Top Eight Pick: 100%

[TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]]

Drafting Fifth Overall should give us an average pick of approximately 4.683 (I did the math). While we have a 29.2% chance of improving our draft position we have a 44.7% chance of worsening it. The reason the average pick is better than 5 is because when we improve the pick, we do so in a more dramatic way. We can potentially move up 4 spots and down only 3 spots and the odds of moving down 3 spots is very small.

[TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]]

My very first try on the Lottery Simulator and the Wolves pick #1. http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/lottery_simulator

[Phenom]

It feels great to not be desperately hoping to win the lottery for once.

[TAFKASP]

It feels great to not be desperately hoping to win the lottery for once.

It feels great, but I keep expecting to wake up and find the past two years have all been a dream!

[Shumway]

It feels great to not be desperately hoping to win the lottery for once.

It feels great, but I keep expecting to wake up and find the past two years have all been a dream!

It's all real SP. Our fortunes have changed.

But imagine the last couple of years if they'd followed typical Wolves worst case scenario - Cleveland picked Embiid instead of Wiggins 1st and including him as the centrepiece of the Love deal, Anthony Bennett is still on the roster (we traded Dieng because Bennett has a higher ceiling, but don't worry we got a 2nd rounder for him which we then sold for cash). We chose Okafor over Towns in the draft, only we didn't actually win the lottery, no such luck. We traded up from 4th and gave up an extra couple of 1sts to get it done. Rubio is still hurt and Zach Lavine is still playing back up point guard and hasn't developed at all... in fact we're considering trading him to clear his salary (so we'll throw in another 1st for whoever can take him off his hands) because we're interested in signing Greg Oden because he is showing signs that he's over his injuries. Oh, and David Kahn has been appointed as an advisor overseeing the coaching search. Sydney Lowe, Randy Wittman and Sam Mitchell are rumoured to be the leading candidates.

[Coolbreeze44]

It feels great to not be desperately hoping to win the lottery for once.

It feels great, but I keep expecting to wake up and find the past two years have all been a dream!

It's all real SP. Our fortunes have changed.

But imagine the last couple of years if they'd followed typical Wolves worst case scenario - Cleveland picked Embiid instead of Wiggins 1st and including him as the centrepiece of the Love deal, Anthony Bennett is still on the roster (we traded Dieng because Bennett has a higher ceiling, but don't worry we got a 2nd rounder for him which we then sold for cash). We chose Okafor over Towns in the draft, only we didn't actually win the lottery, no such luck. We traded up from 4th and gave up an extra couple of 1sts to get it done. Rubio is still hurt and Zach Lavine is still playing back up point guard and hasn't developed at all... in fact we're considering trading him to clear his salary (so we'll throw in another 1st for whoever can take him off his hands) because we're interested in signing Greg Oden because he is showing signs that he's over his injuries. Oh, and David Kahn has been appointed as an advisor overseeing the coaching search. Sydney Lowe, Randy Wittman and Sam Mitchell are rumoured to be the leading candidates.

Classic post Shum