AbeVigodaLive wrote:longstrangetrip wrote:AbeVigodaLive wrote:As of now... without knowing what's to come in FA or with rookies... I have them at about 44 wins. I'm totally aware I'm usually on the low end among prognosticators. But the team has largely the foundation already in place. It's not about a new guy or two that can create an immediate impact like Shaq, James, Garnett/Allen or even Steve Nash.
And they improved by 13 games this past season. I look to similar growth next season. Remember, the 2016 Wolves were extremely healthy.
I'm greedier than you and want and expect more sooner, Abe. Here's how I look at it: The Wolves looked very young and raw for most of the season and played like teenagers, but by the end of the season they were starting to look like NBA players. And their record supported it, as they played the last month of the season with a record of 9-8...that winning percentage projects to 43 wins over the course of the season.
This year we should see continued improvement in our 5 guys still in the first 4 years of their career, and Belly should be much more comfortable in his second year too. I also think we are an attractive destination, and should attract at least one helpful free agent. I know we have likely a top 5 pick, but I don't expect that to translate into more wins next year, but the improvement of the other six young core guys should lead to a winning percentage better than we saw at the end of this season.
Your prediction of 44 wins means we are going to win at about the identical frequency we did the last month of the season. I only see that happening if Thibs has the same injury history he had in Chicago. But I'm taking heart from the Wolfson tweet about Thibs having a new attitude about overworking his players and our young core has proven to be quite resilient under Kander, so I'm not expecting a rash of injuries. Suffice it to say, I'll be very unhappy if we only win 44 games next season.
1. The Wolves were very healthy. (and just because guys may get injured next year, I hope Thibodeau doesn't become the scapegoat for it without cause)
2. The Thunder beat the Warriors, Thunder and Trailblazers. Great wins. They also beat the Kings twice. Pelicans. Suns. Grizzlies.
3. Everyone else could be right. I hope you are.
Don't get me wrong, it was a great end to the season for once in Minnesota and offers hope. But I'm less convinced this team as currently constructed is ready to make the leap into a battle for homecourt advantage in the playoffs. That's a HUGE step in one season if we're only using player development and a new coach. I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm just offering my opinion that the Wolves will be an above .500 team... just not near the elite next season.
I think our projected win thread next October could be our most fun one yet. Here are my thoughts on your three points:
1. I agree that the young core was extremely healthy, but we lost a significant amount of time from three bigs that Sam needed in the rotation (KG, Pek and Belly)...2 of them missed over half the season. Not having these guys forced us to rely too much on Payne, Greg Smith and Rudez. I think that Thibs will have more depth and better options up front next year than Sam had this year.
1a) I'm lucky to still be able to compete nationally in two sports at my (ahem) advanced age, and I feel healthier today than I have most of my life. I attribute this to finally getting smart 5 years ago and getting more serious about stretching, yoga and pilates...wish I had found then earlier. We don't know why Arnie Kander has had so much success in his career keeping his teams healthy, but I suspect it has something to do with there practices. Maybe our new guys are just more resilient than the average NBA player, but I prefer to think that Arnie has a lot to do with it...and that his success will continue.
2. The Wolves schedule the last month of the year was varied...some bad teams, some good teams. But to me it doesn't look particularly easier or harder than an average schedule. More than half the games were on the road, and more than half of them were against playoff teams. 9-8 seems to me to be a pretty accurate reflection of the kind of team we were at the end of the year.
3. If you read the 5 by 5 article in the other thread, experts' predictions are all over the map for wins next year. Some are down in the low 40s with you, and a couple are up in the 50s...Thorpe is at 55 with me. So much depends on whether our young guys continue to develop.
I can't find a better parallel to this year's roster than the 08-09 Thunder, who won 23 games as Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka tried to learn the NBA game. The light bulb went on quickly the next year though, and they increased their win total to 50. That's the best blueprint I can find for the Wolves.
