The MYTH of the X player draft

[mrhockey89]

I see a lot of comments on this board (and pretty much any board) about how we get the 3rd pick in a 2 player draft, or the 4th pick in a 3 player draft, etc, so I figured I'd look back a bit at drafts that had a defined number of players with top end potential... I'll start from 3 years ago, simply because it takes some time for players to develop.

2011 (2 player draft: Kyrie Irving/Derrick Williams):
Pick# Player Name
1 Kyrie Irving
2 Derrick Williams (Wolves)
other picks
3 Kanter
5 Valanciunas
11 Klay Thompson
13 Markieff Morris
15 Kawhi Leonard
16 Nikola Vu?evi?
17 Iman Shumpert
22 Kenneth Faried
23 Nikola Miroti?
30 Jimmy Butler

2010 (5 player draft Wall/Turner/Favors/Johnson/Cousins with Wall being the clear #1)
1 John Wall
2 Evan Turner
3 Derrick Favors
4 Wesley Johnson (Wolves)
5 DeMarcus Cousins
other picks
7 Greg Mornoe
9 Gordon Hayward
10 Paul George (this pick was offered pre-draft to the Wolves for Flynn)
18 Eric Bledsoe
27 Jordan Crawford

2008 (2 1/2 player draft Rose/Beasley/Mayo)
1 Derrick Rose
2 Michael Beasley
3 OJ Mayo (Wolves traded to Grizzlies)
other picks
4 Russell Westbrook
5 Kevin Love
6 Danilo Gallinari
7 Eric Gordon
10 Brook Lopez
15 Robin Lopez
17 Roy Hibbert
21 Ryan Anderson
24 Serge Ibaka
25 Nicolas Batum
26 George Hill
31 Nikola Pekovic
35 DeAndre Jordan
36 Ömer A??k
45 Goran Dragic

A lot of people are suggesting we have to draft a certain player at 4 since it's a 4 player draft (such as Emmanuel Mudiay because you he's the last of the elite prospects), but I think it's far from that simple. I don't have a big opinion on him, nor Porzingis as I haven't watched much of either (outside of a couple highlight videos, just like everyone else on this board), but I do love prospects like Winslow and WCS as well. But regardless of who I or anyone else on here may like or not like, there are going to be LOTS of surprises from this draft, and getting a top 4 "lock" is not really as much of a lock as everyone assumes. It's the hype machine that makes it so. Here's a snippet that I pulled from an article on Porzingis on some FO thoughts on this guy...


Kristaps Porzingis
"He could go two," one general manager said. "He's that good. Nobody says anything bad about him."

Said the head of basketball operations for another team: "I think he's a lock for the top five and I wouldn't be surprised to see him go as high as top three. He's good. We all like to do our comparables. He's like Dirk Nowitzki or Pau Gasol..... I'd take him ahead of (Jahlil) Okafor."


I, nor anyone else on this board, know for sure if he is going to be another Dirk or Gasol, but I'd be hard pressed to say that a guy with that type of projection by guys who have watched him play closely, would be a "reach" in the top 4.

So let's enjoy the discussions on all these guys, form our own takes, realize that ALL of us are going to be wrong to at least some extent, and hopefully open up our eyes and our minds on all the prospects, even though it's been drilled into our head all year that Okafor is the prize of the draft, or that there's only 4 elite prospects in this draft, or that trading up or down would be a franchise destroying move. The most important thing isn't that Flip picks the player (ala Derrick Williams/OJ Mayo) that makes us the most excited at draft day, but the one who's going to help turn this franchise into a contender for the long-term.

[TAFKASP]

Great post Hockey!

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

When I think of X player drafts I think of it as how many guys are challenging for the top pick (i.e. Wiggins, Parker and would have been Embiid if he was healthy). If you look at those drafts Kyrie was the top guy while D Will was the consensus 2. I don't think there was really that much of a challenge by D Will for 1. Wall was it for his draft. If Cousins wasn't crazy he would have challenged Wall for the top spot, but he's crazy so that didn't happen. D Rose and Beasley were the 2 challenging for the top pick that year. We picked after all of those guys. I think this is a three player draft as Towns, Okafor and Russell each have a legitimate shot at #1 and each can be franchise players. That's what it really comes down to. How many franchise players are there in each draft. I don't think we ever had a shot at the consensus franchise game changers outside of Cousins and looking back Beasley was the only bust of that group. Hence the always picking 1 spot behind where we need to be and always feeling like we miss out.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I agree with khans actually. That's weird to say...

[mrhockey89]

When I think of X player drafts I think of it as how many guys are challenging for the top pick (i.e. Wiggins, Parker and would have been Embiid if he was healthy). If you look at those drafts Kyrie was the top guy while D Will was the consensus 2. I don't think there was really that much of a challenge by D Will for 1. Wall was it for his draft. If Cousins wasn't crazy he would have challenged Wall for the top spot, but he's crazy so that didn't happen. D Rose and Beasley were the 2 challenging for the top pick that year. We picked after all of those guys. I think this is a three player draft as Towns, Okafor and Russell each have a legitimate shot at #1 and each can be franchise players. That's what it really comes down to. How many franchise players are there in each draft. I don't think we ever had a shot at the consensus franchise game changers outside of Cousins and looking back Beasley was the only bust of that group. Hence the always picking 1 spot behind where we need to be and always feeling like we miss out.

I disagree on the Kyrie draft. Although I was very high on the "do anything to get Kyrie" thought at the time, Derrick Williams was very much in the mix for the #1 pick. The Cavs, if you recall, were at the time looking at the combinations of players they could get at #1 and #4, and they were going to grab 1 big and 1 guard with that mix, before ultimately turning to Irving. Irving may have been a hair ahead of Williams in the end, however EVERYBODY (experts, Wolves fans on the ESPN board, etc) were calling it a 2 player draft...and after that it was "everyone else" which was why those of us at Target Center heard a roar of cheers when Kahn told fans "we drafted Derrick Williams to keep him and won't be trading him", despite the fact that his #1 position at the NBA level was the same as our best player (Love), which led many to believe they wanted to trade him after drafting him.

I'll give you the Wall comment, but it was a half step down to the next tier, then another tier down after that....and most people seemed to be on the thought that they were going to get an All-Star caliber player at #4, although maybe not a superstar player that Wall could be.

On Rose and Beasley, they were the 2 challenging for the top pick, but it was also widely accepted that it was a 2 1/2 blue chipper draft, in which Mayo was the 1/2 blue chipper. Dwayne Wade had also just suggested that Mayo will be a star in this league and MANY people were in love with what Mayo represented to our future.

Most people feel it's a given that it's Towns at #1 with a bullet for almost every team. Yet most people believe Towns/Okafor go 1-2 and but most people call it a 4 player draft when it comes to franchise changers. That is what I'm suggesting is off here.

And my point of listing those 3 drafts, is that regardless of whether you think it's a 1 player draft, a 3 player draft, or a 4 player draft, you're likely wrong in terms of players who could help turn this franchise around.

[Monster]

Great post Hockey and I think Kahns post is a great follow up.

Look at the 1998 draft. Vince Carter went #5 and then Pierce (i immediately thought of him as a guy picked later) and Dirk went #9 and #10. Amazingly all 3 of those guys played this season what amazing longetivity for them. The best center in that draft wasn't either of the top 2 guys drafted it was Brad Miller who went undrafted.

[mrhockey89]

monster, you listed another perfect example. I'll be the first to admit that there will be players that aren't even on my radar. Kahn was easy to throw under the bus for passing up on certain players (Curry twice), but the Wizards actually traded us the pick that landed Rubio (they might not have traded if they knew Rubio would be there, but they certainly knew they could have landed Curry with that pick).

There will be plenty of revisionist history by all of us, but let's just hope our FO is smart enough to have a couple (yep, I'm hoping for a trade up or a Euro-steal with lotto talent at #31.

[TRKO [enjin:12664595]]

This goes to show it's a total crap shoot. It's all guessing.

Off topic a bit, but who else takes Leonard first in the 2011 draft redo knowing what we know now? Sure Irving is the better scorer, but Leonard appears to be headed to being one of the best two way guys in the game. You could also argue that if Leonard were picked first his development would have been stunted and that he needed a team like the Spurs to bring him along.