Draft Lottery idea?

[TheGrey08]

Systems that count your record work in every other sport. The only reason tanking is more of an issue is b/c the NBA is the most star driven league. Your initial idea wouldn't do any better to counter tanking than a system that takes the bottom 5ish teams and randomizing the draft order.

We know the wheel doesn't work for the simple fact that it gives good teams the advantage of getting high picks they do not need. That's a bad enough reason on it's own let alone the fact it greatly punishes bad teams who miss on their pick. It doesn't matter if there is still some talent throughout the draft b/c the vast majority of the best talent is at the top of the draft.

Again look at the Spurs. Imagine them getting a couple top 6 picks, and a couple top 12 picks during their run with Duncan. The vast majority of teams in the bottom 5-10 are flat out bad teams. There is no point punishing bad teams even more with a wheel draft system and that's exactly what it does. It's a rich get richer and poor get poorer system.

Pros:
It removes any tanking

Cons:
Good teams get high picks they don't need.
If good teams miss on a pick it doesn't hurt them that much.
If good teams hit, they'll be even better.
Bad teams get less high picks that they desperately need.
If bad teams miss on the very few they get, it sends them deeper into the abyss of being bad for another 5 years+.
Free agents don't sign with bad teams with the exception of the big markets
Even if a bad teams hits, they risk that player bailing after 4 years due to the lack of other high end talent.

[Monster]

Ok so what we are talking about in this thread is what economists refer to as incentive. From what I inderstand ecomiasts say when incentive is too great bad things like cheating happen. The problem with the NBA and tanking "cheating" is that you really have no really effective way to take away the natural incentive of the top players in the draft to eliminate or significantly reduce that effect of a very high incentive. The current lottery system dies that to a certain degree but on the other hand as a Wolves fan from the beginning it's also screwed over the team's that's needed it the most as well at least a couple times. Luckily the Cavs won it last year for us. Lol ultimately as a Wolves fan I also think it's not just missing out on the lottery at times it's been poy run organization and or bad luck so really the good organizations tend to rise tobthevwite although it sure helps when you get a terrific talent. I just think there are so many other things to make the league better than worrying about tanking but that's just me. I'll continue to rail about how the league needs a true minor league ASAP until it happens so yeah. :)

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I know it's not much, but what do you guys think of using team records after the all-star break to determine the beginning of the second round? Keep the same lottery teams in the top 14 spots, but the teams who win the most get the top picks in the second round. It gives them some better ammo to possibly move up in the draft and they get first pick at potential rotation guys on 2nd round deals. It definitely doesn't solve tanking but it is a punishment for it and it rewards teams for fighting for playoff spots and miss.

[bleedspeed]

Here is my thought on this to stop tanking.

1. Bottom 2 teams in each conference can't pick 1st or 2nd in the draft.
2. 3rd and 4th place teams in each conference graded on strength of wins. Team with highest score in each conference flips against each other for 1st two picks.

[Phenom]

Start counting wins once a team is eliminated from the playoffs. Award the teams with the top 3 winning percentages since being eliminated with a substantial ping pong ball increase or simply let them leap frog the team next in the standings. Stipulate that teams must have at least x amount of games played after being eliminated to qualify.

[bleedspeed]

I wonder if they get ride of the lottery all together. I don't mind a team tanking to get better next year. I do have a problem with teams picking in the upper lottery year after year. I could see if you get a top 3 pick you can't draft higher then 12th, 13th, or 14th the next year. 3rd gets 12th, 2nd get 13th, and 1st gets 14th pick. Unless they improve to get out of the lottery all together the next year. Then the team that gets the top pick they can't get the top pick for 5 years after that to keep the repeaters out like Cleveland.

[TheGrey08]

I wonder if they get ride of the lottery all together. I don't mind a team tanking to get better next year. I do have a problem with teams picking in the upper lottery year after year. I could see if you get a top 3 pick you can't draft higher then 12th, 13th, or 14th the next year. 3rd gets 12th, 2nd get 13th, and 1st gets 14th pick. Unless they improve to get out of the lottery all together the next year. Then the team that gets the top pick they can't get the top pick for 5 years after that to keep the repeaters out like Cleveland.

That really hurts the truly bad teams though. I don't have a problem with a team like the Sixers trading good players for picks and ending up at the bottom. Also think about the Cavs after Lebron left and luckily got them picks. Their superstar left and Sure they got extremely lucky with the lotto, but realistically they shouldn't have won all of those lotteries b/c all 14 teams shouldn't have a chance at the top pick.

The 2 biggest problems I see with the lottery are:
1) The 14th worst team has a shot at the #1 pick. It shouldn't be more than the top 6 or 7 at the very most. Ideally probably 5.
2) A team like the Knicks who has a superstar go down and plummets to the bottom. They were fairly bad before, but they certainly aren't the worst team in the league with Melo. The Wolves are in a similar boat, but we don't have a bonafide superstar like they do and we've seen the same guys hurt repeatedly.

[TheGrey08]

This is an interesting idea for the current implementation of the lottery. I think it would definitely be an improvement, but still maintains the 14 team lottery which I still think needs to be split up so that only the bottom teams have a chance at #1.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/a-simple-knicks-proof-proposal-to-improve-the-nbas-draft-lottery/?ex_cid=espnFB

[GymRat [enjin:6592663]]

Grey, I read that article as well and think it would be helpful to implement, either with the 14-team lottery, or within mini-groups among the non-playoff teams (e.g. 1-7, 8-14, etc.). The hard part of segmenting teams is not creating more new tank lines between the groupings. Teams on the fringe of each group, including the playoffs, will have incentive to lose games if the value is high enough in the short- or long-term. That's one of the more difficult things to solve.

There is mounting evidence the worst teams infrequently get good enough to turn their teams into contenders, regardless of draft position. Many teams end up bad because of horrific all around management, and it's very rare that a generational talent arrives to overcome those deficiencies (Cavs and LeBron... twice). Even if a team does draft one of those talents, it still needs to remain bad enough to continually draft high/low enough to get more impact players, while simultaneously hitting in free agency at the right time (Sixers current model in progress), but also doing so prior to the originally drafted players hitting free agency and leaving.

I have so many more thoughts on this rumbling through my head, but the draft in itself is just one ingredient to a bigger issue; which is ensuring all teams have a fair and possible chance at winning each year, encouraging fan base investment, thereby growing the profitability of the NBA as a business.

[TheGrey08]

Grey, I read that article as well and think it would be helpful to implement, either with the 14-team lottery, or within mini-groups among the non-playoff teams (e.g. 1-7, 8-14, etc.). The hard part of segmenting teams is not creating more new tank lines between the groupings. Teams on the fringe of each group, including the playoffs, will have incentive to lose games if the value is high enough in the short- or long-term. That's one of the more difficult things to solve.

There is mounting evidence the worst teams infrequently get good enough to turn their teams into contenders, regardless of draft position. Many teams end up bad because of horrific all around management, and it's very rare that a generational talent arrives to overcome those deficiencies (Cavs and LeBron... twice). Even if a team does draft one of those talents, it still needs to remain bad enough to continually draft high/low enough to get more impact players, while simultaneously hitting in free agency at the right time (Sixers current model in progress), but also doing so prior to the originally drafted players hitting free agency and leaving.

I have so many more thoughts on this rumbling through my head, but the draft in itself is just one ingredient to a bigger issue; which is ensuring all teams have a fair and possible chance at winning each year, encouraging fan base investment, thereby growing the profitability of the NBA as a business.

That's another reason I like the idea of averaging team record from 2 or maybe 3 seasons. It helps ensure that the worst teams are getting the higher picks and helps hinder teams who are good or have superstars from bottoming out 1 single year and ending up with 1 horrible year sandwiched between good ones.